Talk:Historical and expected returns

From Bogleheads
Jump to navigation Jump to search

It would be very interesting to see the chart updated with more recent Ibbotson numbers. Ike9898 09:59, 10 December 2010 (EST)

For tutorial purposes, consider expanding the CAGR acronym in the Google spreadsheet. For example: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate. Ref: Compound Annual Growth Rate. --LadyGeek 20:04, 14 October 2013 (CDT)

Reader feedback: Let me suggest to update the...

96.237.240.154 posted this comment on 12 January 2014 (view all feedback).

Let me suggest to update the forecast from Mr Ferri, using his latest 2013 projections:

http://www.portfoliosolutions.com/2013marketforecast/

(this comment applies to both the table of returns in the main text, and the [4] reference link.)

Any thoughts?

LadyGeek 12:42, 12 January 2014 (CST)

I've requested permission from Rick Ferri to incorporate the 2013 information. --LadyGeek 12:59, 12 January 2014 (CST)

Via PM, Rick Ferri has given permission to incorporate the information into the wiki. I updated the wiki. --LadyGeek 14:10, 12 January 2014 (CST)

Reader feedback: It would be great to have a...

98.110.168.103 posted this comment on 20 July 2014 (view all feedback).

It would be great to have a direct reference (i.e. table on the Wiki page) for 1871-2013 US stock and bond annual returns, preferably based on the Shiller database. Amodovar data is similar, but not exactly aligned with Shiller for the S&P 500 numbers, this is confusing. As to bond returns (a VBMFX-equivalent), it is not quite obvious how to derive it from the Shiller data - hence how to compare again Amodovar's math. The way it is done in the VPW worksheet is NOT consistent with Amodovar's math. Bottomline: having a single set of BH-endorsed reference data would be great! One more comment: the Bernstein forecast from Rational Expectations is a 10-years forecast, not a long-term forecast (the DDM math used in the book includes a 'speculative return' factor which is duration-dependent). It would be good to clarify that, as well as include an explicit reference to the book.

Any thoughts?

Blbarnitz 18:31, 20 July 2014 (CDT)

I was the author of those comments. Will process the first comment later on, using the Shiller's numbers, which is the only public reference we can use (the Ibbotson numbers are copyrighted, so is the French-Fama data). I addressed the 2nd comment.

--Siamond 22:46, 20 October 2015 (UTC)

I added a reference to the Shiller's numbers in this page and also in the Shiller's page. Also, the Simba spreadsheet was expanded to include historical data sets for US stocks and bonds, derived from Shiller's data.

--Siamond 11:46, 31 January 2016 (EST)

Reader feedback: On Rick Ferri's numbers, how...

209.112.135.84 posted this comment on 22 October 2014 (view all feedback).

On Rick Ferri's numbers, how is the real return higher than the nominal return? It looks like the categories headings are swapped, or the math is wrong.

Discussion with Rick Ferri at Bogleheads 13 Conference. Clarify the column titles to state "Real Return (Prior to Inflation)" and "Nominal Return (With 2.0% Inflation)".

Rick Ferri gave permission to incorporate the 2014 table: Portfolio Solutions' 30-Year Market Forecast for Investment Planning (2014 Edition)

BogleHead13 12:47, 23 October 2014 (CDT) (LadyGeek)

Siamond's feedback: Should add Jack Bogle's numbers

Suggest to add Jack's latest "reasonable expectations" (slide 47 and 48 from John C. Bogle Bogleheads XIV Presentation). Make clear that those numbers are nominal. Revisit when the Occam's Razor Redux article is published in JPM/Fall-2015 to better understand the way Jack proceeds, and include such reference.

--Siamond 22:38, 20 October 2015 (UTC)

Jack Bogle's numbers added.

--Siamond 12:28, 22 October 2015 (UTC)