User:Whaleknives/Inflation and retirement spending

Inflation
Inflation is an increase in the prices of goods and services over time. When prices rise, currency buys fewer goods and services. Inflation reduces the purchasing power of money and decreases its real (inflation-adjusted) versus nominal value. A measure of price inflation is the inflation rate, the annual percentage change in a price index, usually the consumer price index, over time. The opposite of inflation is deflation, or a price decrease over time.

Inflation and retirement
A retirement plan that does not account for inflation and its decline in purchasing power could be successful at first but fail 10 to 15 years into retirement. Just as inflation varies from country to country, inflation will also vary across regions, and goods and services. For example, the cost of medical care over the last ten years has risen at a significantly faster rate than average inflation, while food and clothing costs have risen at a slower rate. Retirees often spend more of their income on healthcare and living expenses (xx def?), two items that have seen higher than average annual inflation. An experimental inflation price index for seniors, the CPI-E, has been created for Americans 62 years and older. It has behaved more like the CPI-U than the CPI-W.

Some retirement income is better protected against inflation than others. For example, Social Security has an annual cost-of-living adjustment based on the consumer-price-index (CPI). This enables Social Security benefits to remain relatively immune to inflation. Delaying social security as long as possible is a good way to protect against inflation risk because as benefits increase up to age 70 a larger percentage of the individual’s retirement income plan will be inflation protected.

Annuities often offer the ability to purchase either a set inflation increase in benefits — for example, 5% per year — or allow inflation protection based off of an index, like the CPI. Long-term care insurance also offers inflation protection to ensure the benefits do not lose their purchasing power over a long retirement. However, purchasing too much inflation protection can create an added cost that can end up reducing the total returns for the retiree.

One of the best ways to reduce the potential risk of inflation is to delay retirement as long as possible. Salaries typically adjust quickly due to high levels of inflation and many jobs offer annual increases in pay to adjust for changes in the cost of living. If you are in a defined benefit plan, working as long as possible can help protect your benefits since they are often tied to your average highest three years of salary. You could potentially see a significant increase in benefits if inflation rises and your salary adjusts accordingly. Profit-sharing and 401(k) account benefits will not adjust as rapidly if inflation increases during the last few years of employment.

Fixed income (bonds, C.D.s, and other “safe” investments that guarantee a certain level of return) can be significantly affected by inflation. For example, if a bond offers 3.5% annual returns nominally but inflation is 4% per year, the bond’s real interest rate is actually negative because the returns are not keeping up with inflation. In recent years bond rates have been historically low, increasing the risk that inflation could erode the purchasing power of the investment. The U.S. does offer Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) which are CPI-adjusted bonds designed to keep pace with inflation. According to American College Professor Wade Pfau, TIPS can be used to create an inflation-protected retirement income plan.

Stocks are often mentioned as the investor’s most reliable hedge against inflation. Historically, equities have performed well over long periods of time, such as a 30 year period, when compared to inflation. However, the performance of equities as a hedge against inflation begins to suffer when inflation exceeds 5%. Even in times of high inflation, equities still tend to perform better than traditional bonds as inflation protection. While equities are not a perfect hedge against high short-term inflation, over the long run a well diversified stock portfolio, taking into consideration international stocks, can provide inflation protection.

There are other options to limit inflation risk in retirement, such as investing in dividend paying equities, investing in commodities, or purchasing I-Bonds. I-Bonds are particularly well positioned to handle inflation because they earn interest through a mix of inflation and fixed rates. The government does limit individuals purchases. Home prices and rental income often adjust well for inflation. Tapping into home equity during retirement or having rental income as part of one’s retirement plan can help offset some inflation.

Inflation and the decline of purchasing power is a serious risk for approaching retirees, as future inflation rates remain unknown. When planning for retirement, consider the long-term effects and the uncertainty of inflation over the expected period. If someone plans to be retired for 20 years, it would be helpful to see the highest and lowest cumulative impacts of inflation rates for a 20-year period in the U.S. While inflation risk is a major concern, it can be mitigated through proper planning and by including inflation protected investments in a retirement income plan.

Inflation data

 * Department of Labor Consumer Price Index
 * InflationDatacom.
 * Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 39,000 economic time series from 38 sources. Download, graph, and track economic data. Downloadable tools, such an iPhone/iPad app and an Excel Add-In are available.

Overview of BLS Statistics on Inflation and Prices, retrieved July 31, 2016. Inflation can be defined as the overall general upward price movement of goods and services in an economy. BLS has various indexes that measure different aspects of inflation.

BLS statistics related to inflation:

Consumer Price Index The Consumer Price Index (CPI) program produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. There are separate indexes for two groups or populations of consumers:

The CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) is the index most often reported by the national media. The CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is the index most often used for wage escalation agreements. The CPI Inflation Calculator allows users to calculate the value of current dollars in an earlier period, or to calculate the current value of dollar amounts from years ago.

Consumer price indexes often are used to escalate or adjust payments for rents, wages, alimony, child support and other obligations that may be affected by changes in the cost of living. There is a fact sheet explaining how to use the CPI for escalating contracts.

An additional price index called the Chained Consumer Price Index (C-CPI-U) is also available. This measure is designed to be a closer approximation to a "cost-of-living" index than the CPI-U or CPI-W.

Producer Price Indexes The Producer Price Indexes (PPIs) are a family of indexes that measure changes in the selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. They formerly were referred to as Wholesale Price Indexes. When the PPIs are released, the news media will most often report the percentage change in the index for Finished Goods.

Producer Price Indexes also can be used in escalation contracts. A fact sheet explaining the details is available.

Import and Export Prices The International Price Program measured change in the prices of imports and exports of nonmilitary goods between the United States and the rest of the world.

Employment Cost Trends This program publishes quarterly statistics that measure change in labor costs (also called employment costs or compensation costs) over time; quarterly data measuring the level of costs per hour worked are also published. Indexes are available for total labor costs, and separately for wages and salaries and for benefit costs. Some information is available by region, major industry group, major occupational group, and bargaining status.

Contract Escalation Consumer Price Indexes, Producer Price Indexes, and the Employment Cost Index may be used to escalate contracts. See the Contract Escalation page for more information.

Price and Index Number Research The Price and Index Number Research (PINR) division conducts research to strengthen and improve existing price and expenditure measurement concepts and techniques and enhance the analytical usefulness of BLS programs.

Consumer Price Indexes (CPIs) for Other Countries Consumer price indexes as published by individual countries, unadjusted for comparability, as well as harmonized indexes for a smaller selection of countries. (The International Labor Comparisons program has been discontinued.)

Cost-of-living allowance
The real purchasing-power of fixed payments is eroded by inflation unless they are inflation-adjusted to keep their real values constant. In many countries, employment contracts, pension benefits, and government entitlements (such as social security) are tied to a cost-of-living index, typically to the consumer price index. A cost-of-living allowance (COLA) adjusts salaries based on changes in a cost-of-living index. It does not control inflation, but rather seeks to mitigate the consequences of inflation for those on fixed incomes. Salaries are typically adjusted annually in low inflation economies. During hyperinflation they are adjusted more often. They may also be tied to a cost-of-living index that varies by geographic location if the employee moves.

Annual escalation clauses in employment contracts can specify retroactive or future percentage increases in worker pay which are not tied to any index. These negotiated increases in pay are colloquially referred to as cost-of-living adjustments ("COLAs") or cost-of-living increases because of their similarity to increases tied to externally determined indexes.

Inflation and retirement calculations
Inflation factor

Social Security Administration benefit calculators

 * All earnings are indexed to the national average wage index (AWI). Future earnings are indexed with estimated increases in the AWI. Earnings are indexed only to age 60 (two years prior to the first year of eligibility, 62); later earnings are used at face value. These increases are derived from the "intermediate" assumptions in the 2015 OASDI Trustees Report.
 * Although Social Security documentation suggests that future benefits are increased with estimated cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs), the estimates from my Social Security, Retirement Estimator, and the default Detailed Calculator (AnyPIA) do not project benefit increases beyond the current year. AnyPIA does offer the following increased benefit options:
 * 1) Alternative I (optimistic) assumptions from the most recent OASDI Trustees Report.
 * 2) Alternative II (intermediate) assumptions from the Trustees Report.
 * 3) Alternative III (pessimistic) assumptions from the Trustees Report.
 * 4) No benefit increases after the last known increase (default).
 * 5) User-specified benefit increase for each projected year.

Automatic Determinations, Office of the Chief Actuary

Several important parameters affect Social Security's Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program. We determine these parameters each October by following formulas set by law. Two important parameters are the national average wage index and the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). COLAs and wage-indexed amounts for recent years are summarized in a table. The table's column headings provide links to more detailed data.

We use the national average wage index to "index" earnings for initial benefit computations and to determine several wage-indexed amounts that primarily affect the OASDI program.

COLAs provide annual increases in payments from OASDI and SSI programs.

Automatically increased amounts, as described above, are published in the Federal Register in late October. Choose the fourth selection if you do not want any future average wage increases. This is the recommended assumption for projecting future benefits. You can compare a benefit estimate with no future inflation to your current income and expenses for retirement planning.

AnyPIA

Choose the fourth selection if you do not want any future average wage increases. This is the recommended assumption for projecting future benefits. You can compare a benefit estimate with no future inflation to your current income and expenses for retirement planning.

No future average wage increases (Assumptions form) The stored average wage increases for this selection are initially set to zero for all years after the last known average wage. This is the recommended assumption for projecting future benefits. You can compare a benefit estimate with no future inflation to your current income and expenses for retirement planning.

No future benefit increases (Assumptions form) The stored benefit increases for this selection are initially set to zero for all years after the last known benefit increase. This is the recommended assumption for projecting future benefits. You can compare a benefit estimate with no future inflation to your current income and expenses for retirement planning.

There are 37 free and 13 priced retirement calculators listed in the Bogleheads Wiki. The inflation approach for these 50 can be summarized as

Free retirement calculators

 * {|border="2" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="4" width="100%"


 * align = "center" width="15%" rowspan = "2"|Calculator Name
 * align = "center" width="10%" rowspan = "2"|Calculator Type
 * align = "center" width="10%" rowspan = "2"|Initial Retirement Spending
 * align = "center" width="50%" colspan = "5"|Spending Model as Retirement Progresses
 * align = "center" width="15%" rowspan = "2"|Inflation
 * align = "center" width="10%"|Constant Real
 * align = "center" width="10%"| Retirement Stages
 * align = "center" width="10%"|Returns Dependent
 * align = "center" width="10%"|Flexible Spending
 * align = "center" width="10%"|Life Cycle
 * align = "center" width="10%"|Life Cycle


 * AARP Retirement Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|RepR
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
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 * American Funds Retirement Planning Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|RepR
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
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 * AnalyzeNow! Free Retirement Planner
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
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 * Ballpark E$timate Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|RepR
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Crowdsourced FIRE Simulator
 * align = "center"|HRet, Det, MC
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * ESPlannerBASIC
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * Fidelity Retirement Income Planner
 * align = "center"|MC
 * align = "center"|DTot, DWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * Financial Engines
 * align = "center"|MC
 * align = "center"|RepR, DWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
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 * FINRA Retirement Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * FIRECalc 3.0
 * align = "center"|HRet, Det, MC
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * Flexible Retirement Planner
 * align = "center"|MC, Det
 * align = "center"|STot, DTot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * Forecaster for Retirement and Estate Planning
 * align = "center"|Det, MC
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
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 * HARS – Historical Actuarial Retirement Simulator
 * align = "center"|HRet
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
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 * ING Retirement Needs Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
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 * align = "center"|
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 * Mainstay Retirement Planner
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
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 * align = "center"|
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 * Moneychimp M.C. Calculator
 * align = "center"|MC
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
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 * Money-Zine.com Retirement Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|RepR
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
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 * Motley Fool "Am I Saving Enough?"
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * MSN Money Retirement Planner
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|RepR
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Nestful Financial Planner
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Optimal Retirement Planner
 * align = "center"|Det, MC
 * align = "center"|N/A
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * Prudential Retirement Planning Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Reality Retirement Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|RepR
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Retiree Portfolio Model (Forum discussion thread)
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * Retrian Expert/Family/Lifetime
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Schwab Retirement Savings Calculator
 * align = "center"|MC
 * align = "center"|RepR, STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Scottrade Retirement Calculator
 * align = "center"|MC
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
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 * SmartMoney Retirement Planner
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|RepR, STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
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 * align = "center"|
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 * TD Ameritrade WealthRuler
 * align = "center"|MC
 * align = "center"|STot, RepR
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * T. Rowe Price Retirement Income Calculator
 * align = "center"|MC
 * align = "center"|RepR, STot, SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
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 * TIP$TER
 * align = "center"|HRet, MC
 * align = "center"|STot, DTot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * Ultimate Retirement Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * U.S. Dept. of Labor Retirement Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
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 * Vanguard Nest Egg Calculator
 * align = "center"|MC
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
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 * align = "center"|
 * Vanguard Retirement Income Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|RepR
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Variable percentage withdrawal
 * align = "center"|HRet,HStr
 * align = "center"|N/A
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Voyant Financial Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det, MC, HRet
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * }
 * align = "center"|
 * TIP$TER
 * align = "center"|HRet, MC
 * align = "center"|STot, DTot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * Ultimate Retirement Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * U.S. Dept. of Labor Retirement Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Vanguard Nest Egg Calculator
 * align = "center"|MC
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
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 * align = "center"|
 * Vanguard Retirement Income Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|RepR
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Variable percentage withdrawal
 * align = "center"|HRet,HStr
 * align = "center"|N/A
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Voyant Financial Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det, MC, HRet
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * }
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * Voyant Financial Calculator
 * align = "center"|Det, MC, HRet
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * }
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 * }

Purchased retirement calculators
Most of these retirement calculators have Trial Versions that can be used before a final purchase decision. Sometimes the trial version has restricted capabilities. In other cases the trial version is fully functional, but only works for a limited time period.


 * {|border="2" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="4" width="100%"


 * align = "center" width="15%" rowspan = "2"|Calculator Name
 * align = "center" width="10%" rowspan = "2"|Calculator Type
 * align = "center" width="10%" rowspan = "2"|Initial Retirement Spending
 * align = "center" width="50%" colspan = "5"|Spending Model as Retirement Progresses
 * align = "center" width="15%" rowspan = "2"|Inflation
 * align = "center" width="10%"|Constant Real
 * align = "center" width="10%"| Retirement Stages
 * align = "center" width="10%"|Returns Dependent
 * align = "center" width="10%"|Flexible Spending
 * align = "center" width="10%"|Life Cycle
 * align = "center" width="10%"|Life Cycle


 * AnalyzeNow! Pre & Post Retirement Planner
 * align = "center"|Det, HStr
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * eFinPLAN
 * align = "center"|Det, MC
 * align = "center"|SWks, RepR
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * ESPlannerBASIC
 * align = "center"|Det, MC
 * align = "center"|STot
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * ESPlanner
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * ESPlannerPLUS
 * align = "center"|Det, MC
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * J&L Financial Planner Professional
 * align = "center"|Det, MC, HRet
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * Money Tree: Silver Financial Planner
 * align = "center"|Det, MC
 * align = "center"|SWks, DWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * Money Tree: TOTAL Planning Suite
 * align = "center"|Det, MC
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * Otar Retirement Calculator
 * align = "center"|HRet
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * Pralana Retirement Calculator
 * align = "center"|MC
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * Real World Retirement (RWR)
 * align = "center"|Det, MC
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * Simple Planning Retirement Planner
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
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 * align = "center"|
 * VeriPlan
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * }
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * Simple Planning Retirement Planner
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * VeriPlan
 * align = "center"|Det
 * align = "center"|SWks
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
 * align = "center"|
 * }
 * align = "center"|
 * align = "center"|X
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 * }
 * }