madsinger monthly report (January 2012)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2012 returns, 2012 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2002, 2007 and 2009 (13 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 61/5/3/31 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

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                                  CAGR     CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   Jan    YTD     since    since   since   since
                   2012   2012    2009     2007    2002    1999
Hot Hands         2.15%   2.15%   13.34%  -4.14%   8.01%  10.65%
Sheltered Sam     5.86%   5.86%   16.03%   0.28%   6.67%   6.16%
VFINX             4.46%   4.46%   15.23%   0.54%   3.24%   2.24%
                  
s&d               5.25%   5.25%   14.32%   1.81%   7.08%   6.59%
Newsletter G      4.70%   4.70%   16.13%   1.43%   5.88%   7.99%
3 fund            4.90%   4.90%   13.22%   1.98%   5.76%   4.45%
Newsletter G-IND  4.70%   4.70%   17.68%   1.92%   5.74%   4.40%
LS G              4.79%   4.79%   13.38%   0.74%   4.57%   3.59%

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coffeehouse       3.89%   3.89%   13.10%   3.60%   6.82%   6.58%
Wellington        3.29%   3.29%   12.91%   4.06%   6.45%   6.42%
STAR              4.48%   4.48%   13.27%   3.17%   5.62%   5.73%
Newsletter CG     4.30%   4.30%   14.62%   1.86%   5.31%   6.28%
LS MG             3.81%   3.81%   12.02%   2.25%   4.95%   4.26%
                  
Wellesley         1.88%   1.88%   12.40%   6.32%   6.80%   6.65%
Newsletter Inc    3.10%   3.10%   13.28%   2.91%   5.25%   4.41%
LS CG             2.77%   2.77%   10.50%   3.16%   4.86%   4.56%
                  
madsinger         4.70%   4.70%   14.65%   2.64%      

[texas_archer]

Thanks for the update.

[madsinger]

And...after months of requests...I finally got around to making actual 1, 3, and 5 year return charts. These are the past 12, 36 and 60 months, and not tied to the beginning of the calendar year. Through Jan 31, 2012. I do not have monthly return data for the Newsletter Growth Index portfolio for 2007, so I can't compute the 5 year returns. By next year, this should be in the chart.

-Brad.

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                   1-year  3-year   5-year      3 yr total  5 yr total
VFINX              4.06%   19.12%    0.25%        69.04%       1.25%
sheltered sam      0.99%   21.31%   -0.12%        78.52%      -0.59%
Hot Hands         -0.51%   16.09%   -4.76%        56.44%     -21.65%
                  
3 fund             1.07%   16.76%    1.77%        59.16%       9.17%
s&d                1.20%   18.69%    1.46%        67.21%       7.52%
Newsletter G       1.31%   18.67%    1.02%        67.11%       5.18%
LS G               0.94%   17.00%    0.47%        60.18%       2.38%
Newsletter G-IND   3.05%   20.85%                 76.48%   

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Wellington         5.17%   15.43%    3.99%        53.79%      21.59%
coffeehouse        4.83%   16.70%    3.45%        58.95%      18.49%
STAR               4.03%   15.76%    3.02%        55.11%      16.05%
LS MG              2.93%   14.84%    2.06%        51.45%      10.73%
Newsletter CG      3.58%   16.80%    1.58%        59.33%       8.13%
                  
Wellesley         10.97%   14.56%    6.36%        50.33%      36.09%
LS CG              3.63%   12.38%    3.04%        41.93%      16.18%
Newsletter Inc     7.07%   14.75%    2.58%        51.11%      13.57%
                  
madsinger          1.72%   18.31%    2.35%        65.61%      12.32%

[madsinger]

...and...some commentary.

Well...January was a big up month! (aren't you glad you stuck around for the commentary?)

US big indexes up about 5% for the month. Small caps closer to 7%. Internationals over 7% with EM all the way to 11%. Precious metals (which I rebalanced into at the end of the last month!) up over 14%. Bonds had a positive month, but pretty much, the more bonds a portfolio held this month, the further it lagged the stock heavy portfolios.

As for Hot Hands, I looked at the total return charts for 2011. The highest returning "stock fund" was Health Care. But, since that's a "sector" fund, I went with the next fund which was Equity Income. That only returned 2.15% last month. If this isn't the "official" HH fund, someone can let me know (later in the year) and I'll update accordingly.

I hope you all had a good month!

-Brad.

[Mel Lindauer]

Thanks for your monthly updates, Brad. I always look forward to seeing them.

[investor]

Brad:
I would also like to express my thanks for the monthly posts.
I am a big fan of Wellington and Wellesley funds as one stop shopping

investor

[MariaT]

Brad, thank you as always, Your report is one that I look forward to every month.

Warm regards,
Maria

[AQ]

brad, many thanks, in particular for the new feature with those 1/3/5 years returns! a good month indeed.