madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2011 returns, 2011 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2002, 2007 and 2009 (13 years, 10 years, 5 years, 3 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 62/5/3/30 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   Dec     YTD      since   since   since   since
                   2011    2011     2009    2007    2002    1999
Hot Hands         -0.55%  -1.58%   12.93%  -4.61%   7.85%  10.54%
Sheltered Sam      0.54%  -3.16%   14.31%  -0.85%   6.12%   5.74%
VFINX              1.02%   1.97%   14.02%  -0.33%   2.82%   1.91%
                  
s&d                0.46%  -2.67%   12.81%   0.81%   6.60%   6.22%
Newsletter G       0.00%  -1.40%   14.84%   0.52%   5.45%   7.66%
Newsletter G-IND   0.00%  -0.30%   16.41%   1.02%   5.31%   4.06%
3 fund            -0.06%  -2.38%   11.82%   1.05%   5.31%   4.10%
LS G               0.05%  -2.28%   12.01%  -0.18%   4.12%   3.24%

Code: Select all

coffeehouse        1.15%   2.02%   12.05%   2.87%   6.47%   6.31%
Wellington         1.67%   3.85%   12.08%   3.46%   6.17%   6.20%
STAR               0.12%   0.77%   12.01%   2.33%   5.20%   5.41%
Newsletter CG      0.70%   1.00%   13.45%   1.04%   4.91%   5.98%
LS MG              0.31%   0.26%   10.98%   1.53%   4.60%   3.99%
                  
Wellesley          2.53%   9.63%   12.07%   6.03%   6.66%   6.54%
Newsletter Inc     1.25%   5.10%   12.52%   2.34%   4.98%   4.19%
LS CG              0.60%   1.76%    9.80%   2.65%   4.61%   4.37%
                  
madsinger          0.17%  -2.07%   13.34%   1.75%
Last edited by madsinger on Wed Jan 04, 2012 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by madsinger »

Most portfolios in the -3% to +3% return range. Big notable outlier is Wellesley income with a 9.63% return!

US Large was positive in the 1% to 2% range.
US Small was negative in the -3% to -4% range.
Foreign was down big, double digit losses all around, with emerging markets down over -18%.
Vanguard's precious metals and mining down over -20% for the year.
REIT's were relatively good performers, up about 8.5% for the year.

Bonds were strong, Total Bond up 7.5%...the shorter term bonds were not nearly as strong, Short Term bond up about 3%.

My madsinger portfolio was down about -2% for the year. REITs and PM basically cancelled each other out. My tilt towards "small" hurt this year...and anything in foreign (about 25% of my equity) was a pretty big hit.

Down -2% is not a disaster at all, but not as useful to my long term goals as a positive number would be! Because I added more than 2% to my portfolio this year, my "net worth" in my investments is higher this year than last, but the return was negative.

Wishing you all a happy and prosperous 2012!

-Brad.
MitchL
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by MitchL »

Thank you Brad.

My 72/28, 40% international, moderately small/value tilted, no precious metals portfolio returned -2.64% last year.

Happy New Year!
Mitch
gkaplan
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by gkaplan »

As of 12/31/2011, my annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rate of returns are 26.23, --4.70%, 11.06%, and 1.92, respectively.

My best fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares class with a year-to-date return of 10.08%. This return is skewed and misleading, however, since I have held this fund only since September 27, 2011, when the Admiral Share class first become available. My best fund year-to-date, otherwise, has been the Vanguard REIT Index Fund Admiral Shares. My annualized quarterly and one-year returns are 75.62% and 8.62%, respectively. (I have held the Admiral Shares class of this fund only since October 6, 2010.)

My worst performing fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund. My annualized quarterly and one-year returns are 5.69% and –19.14%, respectively. (I have held this fund only since June 30, 2009.) A close second to worst performing fund year-to-date has been the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares. My annualized quarterly and one-year returns are 25.86% and –18.59%, respectively. (I have held this fund only since October 6, 2010.)

My retirement portfolio currently is divided among the following two investment vehicles:

66.78%: Vanguard Roth IRA (My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rate of returns are 41.00%, --7.75%, 14.49%, and 2.03, respectively.)
33.21%: Thrift Savings Plan (My annualized quarterly, one-year, three-year, and five-year rate of returns are 1.72%, 2.44%, 3.53%, and 0.08, respectively.)

My target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 72/28 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

12%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
12%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
12%: Domestic REIT
06%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
06%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
12%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
12%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging
28%: Fixed Income

As of 12/31/2011, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 67/33. Specifically, my current allocations (as of 12/31/2011) are as follows.

11.59%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VIVAX)
10.72%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VSAIX)
13.01%: Domestic REIT (VGSLX)
05.04%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEURX)
04.95%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPACX)
10.08%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VSFVX)
11.39%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging (VEMAX)
33.22%: Fixed Income (TSP G Fund)


Overall, the last quarter was rather good; however, it was not good enough to offset a miserable third quarter. Bottom line: a disappointing year, especially since the year had started so promisingly with an excellent first six months.
Gordon
livesoft
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by livesoft »

@madsinger, once again thanks for the monthly update.

@gkaplan, thanks for the details. My portfolio is not dissimilar and thus my results are about the same.
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bschultheis
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by bschultheis »

Thanks Brad, I appreciate it.

Go Coffeehouse! - Annualized returns for last ten years at 6.47%. Nice to see that happening in real life, as well.

A good portion of that return was generated by a raging bull market in bonds.

With all the market pundits chirping in about expected returns over the next one to fifty years, I might as well jump in to the fray.

I predict that over the next ten years, The Coffeehouse portfolio will return 6.00%.

Less than stellar returns in the bond market; returns in the stock market slightly below or at long term averages, making asset allocation decision more important than ever before.

Of course the big wildcard of stock market returns is the emotions of investors.

Good luck staying the course and capturing what the market gives you.

It has paid off in the past, will pay off in the future,. Not so easy to do though. In my opinion, many investors vastly overestimate their ability to stay the course during steep market declines, reminded of this again, especially after a year just completed.
investor
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by investor »

Brad, thanks for your postings.
Here are newsletter returns for DEC and Year 2011 respectfully:
Fund, Dec, year 2011

Growth 0.0%, (1.4)%
Con Growth 0.6%, 1.0%
Income 1.2%, 5.1%
Growth & Idx 0.0%, (0.3%)

investor
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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by madsinger »

Hello investor,

Thank you for the information. I have updated the chart to include the Newsletter numbers.

I also found that I had one more deposit into the madsinger account that had not been included in my XIRR, so I have updated the return for the madsinger portfolio as well (dropped from -1.97% to -2.07% for the year).

-Brad.
Elysium
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by Elysium »

Brad, if you don't mind and if it is not too much to ask for, will you post year by year returns for all portfolios. Thanks.
grayfox
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by grayfox »

Inflation from Nov-2010 to Nov-2011 was 3.44%. (Won't have the December inflation number for a few weeks.) So all the portfolios with 2011 return less than about 3% lost to inflation.

The only three that beat inflation were:

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio 11.5%
Wellesley 9.63%
Newsletter Inc 5.10%
Wellington 3.85%

The rest of the portfolios did not clear the inflation hurdle in 2011. They went backwards. In other words, they all stunk in 2011.

2011 Lazy Portfolio Results

edit: I added Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio and link to Lazy Portfolio Results
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craigr
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by craigr »

As posted, the Permanent Portfolio posted +11% and change. A full breakdown of the returns and other market returns for populars assets is here:

http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2012/01/01 ... 1-results/

As of Dec 31, Morningstar reported the following total returns for the assets:

25% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (Ticker: VTI) +0.93%
25% iShares 1-3 Year Short Term Treasury Bond ETF (Ticker: SHY) +1.39%
25% iShares 20+ Year Long Term Treasury Bond ETF (Ticker: TLT) +33.56%
25% Gold Price appreciation for the year +9.57%

2011 End of Year Result w/Short Term Bonds for Cash: +11.36%

My prediction for the future of the markets: I have absolutely no idea! Keep your portfolios targeted on your asset allocation and continue to ignore the market noise.

Have a Happy New Year and thanks for your work posting these results each month, madsinger.
IMPORTANT NOTE: My old website crawlingroad{dot}com is no longer available or run by me.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by madsinger »

Code: Select all

                   2011     2010     2009      2008    2007     2006    2005  
Hot Hands         -1.58%   20.20%   21.74%   -47.86%   5.15%   30.30%  20.50% 
sheltered sam     -3.16%   18.10%   30.62%   -37.91%   3.30%   22.53%  10.96% 
VFINX              1.97%   14.91%   26.49%   -37.02%   5.39%   15.64%   4.77% 
                                       
s&d               -2.67%   16.19%   26.94%   -30.16%   3.83%   19.81%   9.12%  
Newsletter G      -1.40%   14.30%   34.40%   -38.40%  10.00%   18.40%  11.40%  
Newsletter G-IND  -0.30%   18.80%   33.20%   -40.30%  11.70%   16.00%  12.10%  
3 fund            -2.38%   13.17%   26.56%   -30.74%   8.79%   16.60%   8.14%  
LS G              -2.28%   15.06%   24.99%   -34.39%   7.46%   16.13%   6.88%  

Code: Select all

coffeehouse        2.02%   14.68%   20.26%   -20.21%   2.63%   15.15%   6.24%  
Wellington         3.85%   10.94%   22.20%   -22.30%   8.34%   14.97%   6.82%  
STAR               0.77%   11.70%   24.85%   -25.10%   6.58%   11.64%   7.44%  
Newsletter CG      1.00%   12.00%   29.10%   -33.60%   8.60%   15.80%   8.80%  
LS MG              0.26%   13.31%   20.33%   -26.50%   7.36%   13.31%   5.69%  
                                       
Wellesley          9.63%   10.65%   16.02%    -9.84%   5.61%   11.28%   3.48% 
Newsletter Inc     5.10%   11.20%   21.90%   -24.10%   3.80%   10.60%   6.20%   
LS CG              1.76%   11.14%   17.06%   -19.52%   6.99%   10.62%   4.45%  
                                       
madsinger         -2.07%   17.15%   26.90%   -28.85%   5.27%   16.66%   9.09%

Code: Select all

                     2004    2003     2002     2001     2000    1999
Hot Hands           31.80%  44.50%   -9.80%   13.70%   18.00%  28.80%
sheltered sam       18.49%  36.64%  -14.08%   -4.84%    1.67%  17.76%
VFINX               10.74%  28.50%  -22.15%  -12.02%   -9.06%  21.07%
                                       
s&d                 17.67%  31.67%  -10.17%   -3.95%    2.50%  17.45%
Newsletter G        15.70%  32.00%  -17.80%   -6.40%   20.40%  36.30%
Newsletter G-IND    15.10%  28.20%  -16.90%   -2.40%  -15.60%  21.40%
3 fund              13.36%  28.57%  -13.35%   -9.84%   -7.69%  20.73%
LS G                12.58%  28.52%  -15.84%   -8.86%   -5.44%  17.32%

Code: Select all

coffeehouse         13.80%  23.54%   -5.56%    1.88%    7.25%   8.30%
Wellington          11.17%  20.75%   -6.90%    4.19%   10.40%   4.41%
STAR                11.60%  22.70%   -9.87%    0.50%   10.96%   7.13%
Newsletter CG       13.00%  28.90%  -16.40%   -3.50%   14.00%  19.70%
LS MG               10.57%  22.40%  -10.32%   -4.48%   -0.88%  12.01%
                                       
Wellesley            7.57%   9.66%    4.64%    7.39%   16.17%  -4.14%
Newsletter Inc       8.40%  19.10%   -4.50%   -1.10%   -3.50%   9.90%
LS CG                8.02%  16.57%   -5.37%   -0.08%    3.12%   7.86%
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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by madsinger »

Thank you all for posting your portfolio information here. I appreciate your interest.

Thanks to grayfox and craigr for you Permanent Portofolio information as well. (nice website, craigr!) I'm getting more intrigued by this approach, and will consider skewing a piece of my portfolio that way!

And for dieharder, I've posted the yearly returns. Let me know if this is what you wanted, or if you were looking for something else.

-Brad.
Elysium
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Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2011)

Post by Elysium »

Thanks Brad. This is exactly what I asked for.
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