madsinger monthly report (August 2011)

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

madsinger monthly report (August 2011)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2011 returns, 2011 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2006 and 2008 (12 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 62/5/3/30 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Aug      YTD      since   since   since   since
                  2011     2011     2008    2006    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -8.50%   -3.23%   -7.94%   0.20%   8.47%  10.69%
Sheltered Sam    -6.61%   -3.60%   -2.15%   2.79%   5.20%   5.85%
VFINX            -5.44%   -1.87%   -2.88%   1.61%   1.05%   1.65%
                  
s&d              -5.59%   -2.13%    0.22%   4.08%   5.83%   6.43%
Newsletter G-IND -5.44%   -0.90%   -1.78%   3.47%   4.67%   4.12%
Newsletter G     -5.55%   -3.00%   -2.31%   3.20%   4.29%   7.73%
3 fund           -5.24%   -2.01%   -0.77%   3.76%   3.99%   4.24%
LS G             -5.56%   -2.33%   -2.20%   2.50%   2.95%   3.33%
                  
coffeehouse      -3.57%    0.45%    2.77%   4.83%   6.08%   6.35%
Wellington       -3.52%    0.09%    1.45%   4.93%   5.81%   6.05%
STAR             -3.98%   -0.25%    1.13%   3.87%   4.82%   5.47%
Newsletter CG    -4.37%   -1.60%   -1.54%   3.09%   4.00%   5.92%
LS MG            -3.92%   -0.36%   -0.04%   3.49%   3.80%   4.04%
                  
Wellesley        -0.27%    4.85%    5.42%   6.47%   6.49%   6.34%
Newsletter Inc   -2.20%    2.30%    1.41%   3.40%   4.29%   4.08%
LS CG            -2.62%    0.75%    1.47%   3.99%   4.21%   4.41%
                  
madsinger        -4.68%   -1.88%    1.02%   4.37%      
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Post by madsinger »

Well....that was interesting!

On August 4, I was down -5.5% for the month...and I rebalanced. By August 8, I was down -10.9% for the month. Finishing at -4.7% for the month has to be considered a good sign! (except I'm already down -2.7% for the first two days in September!)

Wellesley's still rocking the house with a YTD gain of 4.85%. After that, the general trend is "more bonds, more better".

Wishing you all well!

-Brad.
User avatar
BigD53
Posts: 1042
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2007 7:47 pm

Post by BigD53 »

Thanks madsinger. The simplicity of Wellesley Income Fund continues to amaze. :D :moneybag

(And before someone jumps down my throat, I realize we've had something like a 1,000 year bull market in bonds, and Wellesley is mostly bonds, and interest rates have no where to go but up... bla, bla, bla. )

Stick a sock in it. :lol :yawn
Last edited by BigD53 on Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
investor
Posts: 1010
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:50 pm

Post by investor »

Thanks Brad, appreciate as always.
my YTD +2.11% using mostly balanced funds, all active

investor
Buddtholomew
Posts: 1020
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 3:29 pm

Post by Buddtholomew »

I would appreciate it if you could include the Permanent Portfolio returns in your analysis as well. I would be more than happy to provide you with the details when you compile the data.

Best-
Budd
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Post by madsinger »

Buddtholomew wrote:I would appreciate it if you could include the Permanent Portfolio returns in your analysis as well. I would be more than happy to provide you with the details when you compile the data.

Best-
Budd
Hi Budd,

I've been somewhat resistant to add more portfolios, but this topic has generated so much interest, maybe it would be a good idea.

The other "problem", is that all of these portfolios are made up of Vanguard mutual funds, with data that is readily available and funds that are "investable". I don't really want to get into tracking an "index" and comparing this to funds.

What funds (or investment vehicles?) would you propose for the four corners of the PP?

-Brad.
pshonore
Posts: 7152
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2009 2:21 pm

Post by pshonore »

How about using the Permanent Portfolio fund? (PPRFX). Its not perfect but it sure is simple.
Beagler
Posts: 3442
Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 7:39 pm

Post by Beagler »

BigD53 wrote:Thanks madsinger. The simplicity of Wellesley Income Fund continues to amaze. :D :moneybag

(And before someone jumps down my throat, I realize we've had like a 1,000 year bull market in bonds, and Wellesley is mostly bonds, and interest rates have no where to go but up... bla, bla, bla. )

Stick a sock in it. :lol :yawn
Nothing succeeds like success.
“The only place where success come before work is in the dictionary.” Abraham Lincoln. This post does not provide advice for specific individual situations and should not be construed as doing so.
User avatar
Random Musings
Posts: 5944
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 4:24 pm
Location: Pennsylvania

Post by Random Musings »

Madsinger,

Still wish we could get 1, 3, 5 and 10 year returns vs. start of various years. You were looking into it, but perhaps it was too time consuming.

RM
mawhinney
Posts: 25
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:04 pm

Permenent Portfoflio Fund PPRFX - What is it?

Post by mawhinney »

What is the Permanent Porfolio Fund? I haven't been able to find anything on it.
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Re: Permenent Portfoflio Fund PPRFX - What is it?

Post by madsinger »

mawhinney wrote:What is the Permanent Porfolio Fund? I haven't been able to find anything on it.
This has been discussed at length on this board a number of times. Here is a quote I've snipped from another discussion which points you to some of the links:
MarcMyWord wrote:Here's the original mammoth book–length Permanent Portfolio thread which began on this forum in 2008 and ran until moderators closed it in late 2010:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=15434

Here's its continuation, which "only" achieved novella length:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=61964
Also, here's a link to a discussion group dedicated to this idea:

http://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/index.php

-Brad.
pshonore
Posts: 7152
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2009 2:21 pm

Re: Permenent Portfoflio Fund PPRFX - What is it?

Post by pshonore »

mawhinney wrote:What is the Permanent Porfolio Fund? I haven't been able to find anything on it.
Its an open end mutual fund that supposedly replicates the Permanenet Portfolio. Generally available thru most brokers. More info at http://permanentportfoliofunds.com/
User avatar
Random Musings
Posts: 5944
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 4:24 pm
Location: Pennsylvania

Re: Permenent Portfoflio Fund PPRFX - What is it?

Post by Random Musings »

pshonore wrote:
mawhinney wrote:What is the Permanent Porfolio Fund? I haven't been able to find anything on it.
Its an open end mutual fund that supposedly replicates the Permanenet Portfolio. Generally available thru most brokers. More info at http://permanentportfoliofunds.com/
From their site - target holdings:

Gold 20%
Silver 5%
Swiss Franc Assets 10%
U.S. and Foreign Real Estate and Natural Resource Stocks 15%
Aggressive Growth Stocks 15%
U.S. Treasury Bills, Bonds and Other Dollar Assets 35%

Seems a bit different, IMHO, plus you can do better than their 0.77% expense ratio. However, it's permanent with respect to their target holdings - if that target has remained permanent since inception.

RM
User avatar
Jay69
Posts: 1801
Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2011 9:42 pm

Post by Jay69 »

I have been enjoying your monthly updates.

I thank you.

It’s an interesting note even in today’s market that a 10% stock/bond shift one way or another does not make what I call a real drastic change. When I started down Bogle road the equity/bond split seemed to be the hardest decision. Now if we get some bigger swings I may change my mind :wink:

Thanks again

Jay
"Out of clutter, find simplicity” Albert Einstein
User avatar
White Coat Investor
Posts: 15229
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 9:11 pm
Location: Greatest Snow On Earth

Post by White Coat Investor »

NM.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
Snowjob
Posts: 1636
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2009 10:53 pm

Post by Snowjob »

Well, It would have been worse but that end of month rally was nice....

YTD down ~ 11% vs 8% for my benchmark. Holding on to my seat, September isnt looking pretty!
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Post by madsinger »

September report is here:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=83544

(but really...I don't recommend looking!)
Post Reply