3800 should offer some support I am thinking, -20% is a very important psychological level, a lot of markets have reversed at this point in the past and my thinking is that a lot of algos and market participants will be coming in here. This may not last but if we break down it may get ugly fast.
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 1:31 pm
3800 should offer some support I am thinking, -20% is a very important psychological level, a lot of markets have reversed at this point in the past and my thinking is that a lot of algos and market participants will be coming in here. This may not last but if we break down it may get ugly fast.
It will be interesting. I remember outside of Covid, which was a special case, in 2015 and 2018, each time the S&P touched -20%, we rallied off of that. I understand inflation was not an issue, but if we fall 20% and we continue to fall, yes, it could get ugly.
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 1:31 pm
3800 should offer some support I am thinking, -20% is a very important psychological level, a lot of markets have reversed at this point in the past and my thinking is that a lot of algos and market participants will be coming in here. This may not last but if we break down it may get ugly fast.
You said this on April 27:
nice bounce off that key backtest at 4173 I would say that is a great sign that we could be at least range bound instead of any kind of crash...
I doubt there is going to be any crash, all of the Fed news is already priced in now, there is nothing else to surprise markets...
4173? That seems so long ago now.
I'm not actually poking fun at you... I'm just pointing out that it's crazy out there, and predicting the future is like throwing a dart blindfolded.
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 12:28 pm
My bear market threshold is 3837.25 (-20% since 1/3/22). We might get there this month.
I expect the market to fall to 3'000 points with a confidence intervall of 90% probability that the thorugh is lying between 2'200 and 3'800 points
well we're definitely getting below 3800, so you're telling us there's a 10% chance we'll additionally fall below 2200. Grim
I can also predict that there's a 90% chance your dog will get cancer next month. Does that scare you too? Or do you recognize that I'm just some anonymous poster on the Internet and you'd be foolish to think I can predict anything?
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 12:28 pm
My bear market threshold is 3837.25 (-20% since 1/3/22). We might get there this month.
I expect the market to fall to 3'000 points with a confidence intervall of 90% probability that the thorugh is lying between 2'200 and 3'800 points
well we're definitely getting below 3800, so you're telling us there's a 10% chance we'll additionally fall below 2200. Grim
I can also predict that there's a 90% chance your dog will get cancer next month. Does that scare you too? Or do you recognize that I'm just some anonymous poster on the Internet and you'd be foolish to think I can predict anything?
Remember the Boglehead contest to guess the S&P at year-end? The contest would be just as much fun if we ran it every week!
bigbadbuff wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 11:58 am
AAPL just went below $150, supposedly a marker to watch...
Now $140. The person who posted earlier about it going down by $20 and in increments of $10 was right.
Hmm... I remember I had to do a report on Apple in graduate school. It was $12 a share or something like that. Long before iPods. Oh, how I wish I had bought 100 shares. But that's a sob story for another thread.
atdharris wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:23 pm
RSI is at 30. Last time we hit that level was at the bottom of March 2020 and the bottom in 2018. Perhaps we are close to the bottom.
You are semi-correct - we are close to a mid-term bottom. For example - S&P 500 hovered at around -20% for another 6 months before completely crashing down in 2000 and 2008. Just wait and relax and save money.
Last edited by RayKeynes on Thu May 12, 2022 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
atdharris wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:23 pm
RSI is at 30. Last time we hit that level was at the bottom of March 2020 and the bottom in 2018. Perhaps we are close to the bottom.
This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. (Churchill)
atdharris wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:23 pm
RSI is at 30. Last time we hit that level was at the bottom of March 2020 and the bottom in 2018. Perhaps we are close to the bottom.
You are semi-correct - we are close to a mid-term bottom. For example - S&P 500 hovered at around -20% for another 6 months before completely crashing down in 2000 and 2008. Just wait and relax and save money.
OK. You're saying build up dry powder and market time?
Tech wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 1:53 pm
GME is up 7.6%
AMC is up 2.84%
There really does seem to be two different games going on. And it’s interesting to see things with no connection between fundamentals and price march to their own drummer while the market tries to find the right level.
Apple has nearly $200 billion cash/investments on hand. Disney is currently trading at a $188 billion market cap. Even with the premium Apple would have to pay, Apple can finance this deal easily. If Apple was to announce an interest in Disney, people would wake up and realize how oversold some of these companies are.
GP813 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:43 pm
Apple has nearly $200 billion cash/investments on hand. Disney is currently trading at a $188 billion market cap. Even with the premium Apple would have to pay, Apple can finance this deal easily. If Apple was to announce an interest in Disney, people would wake up and realize how oversold some of these companies are.
I may be in the minority, but why would Apple want to buy Disney? I've never liked Disney as an investment in general, and as an Apple shareholder, I would not like it if they bid for Disney.
atdharris wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:23 pm
RSI is at 30. Last time we hit that level was at the bottom of March 2020 and the bottom in 2018. Perhaps we are close to the bottom.
You are semi-correct - we are close to a mid-term bottom. For example - S&P 500 hovered at around -20% for another 6 months before completely crashing down in 2000 and 2008. Just wait and relax and save money.
OK. You're saying build up dry powder and market time?
I wouldn't invest in the correct market environment. As my SAA is 122% equity leverage currently - I plan to decrease asset leverage over the course of the next 3-6 months and not buy any equity thus. If I were already at SAA 80% equity - I guess I would just continue investing on a monthly basis - correct.
GP813 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:43 pm
Apple has nearly $200 billion cash/investments on hand. Disney is currently trading at a $188 billion market cap. Even with the premium Apple would have to pay, Apple can finance this deal easily. If Apple was to announce an interest in Disney, people would wake up and realize how oversold some of these companies are.
I may be in the minority, but why would Apple want to buy Disney? I've never liked Disney as an investment in general, and as an Apple shareholder, I would not like it if they bid for Disney.
Services. Apple wants you on a subscription model. They are building Apple TV+, add the Disney IP into the ecosystem(Mickey Mouse, Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel Cinematic Universe) and you have a captive audience. Down the road they can spin-off the parks and cruise lines and whatever they don't want to operate and license to whoever wants to buy it.
Last edited by GP813 on Thu May 12, 2022 2:58 pm, edited 3 times in total.
GP813 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:43 pm
Apple has nearly $200 billion cash/investments on hand. Disney is currently trading at a $188 billion market cap. Even with the premium Apple would have to pay, Apple can finance this deal easily. If Apple was to announce an interest in Disney, people would wake up and realize how oversold some of these companies are.
I may be in the minority, but why would Apple want to buy Disney? I've never liked Disney as an investment in general, and as an Apple shareholder, I would not like it if they bid for Disney.
Why not like Disney as an investment ?
An important key to investing is having a well-calibrated sense of your future regret.
NewbieBogle007 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:57 pm
Pfff- why are we predicting SP500 instead of VTI? This is Bogleheads, darn it.
S&P 500 is the king and the price index with the longest history for getting top-to-through data. S&P 500 and VTI also nearly have a 100% correlation and a Beta of 1.
Btw my sold VTI puts are doing great, made already 150$ in 20 minutes.
Last edited by RayKeynes on Thu May 12, 2022 3:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
GP813 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:43 pm
Apple has nearly $200 billion cash/investments on hand. Disney is currently trading at a $188 billion market cap. Even with the premium Apple would have to pay, Apple can finance this deal easily. If Apple was to announce an interest in Disney, people would wake up and realize how oversold some of these companies are.
I may be in the minority, but why would Apple want to buy Disney? I've never liked Disney as an investment in general, and as an Apple shareholder, I would not like it if they bid for Disney.
Services. Apple wants you on a subscription model. They are building Apple TV+, add the Disney IP into the ecosystem(Mickey Mouse, Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel Cinematic Universe) and you have a captive audience. Down the road they can spin-off the parks and cruise lines and whatever they don't want to operate and license to whoever wants to buy it.
I suppose - but I really view streaming these days as a race to the bottom. All the major players are having to spend billions on content to keep subs. Even Disney reported elevated expenses this past quarter due to its streaming service.
Either way, I don't think Apple will buy Disney. It has already spent a lot of money on building out its own streaming service.
GP813 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:43 pm
Apple has nearly $200 billion cash/investments on hand. Disney is currently trading at a $188 billion market cap. Even with the premium Apple would have to pay, Apple can finance this deal easily. If Apple was to announce an interest in Disney, people would wake up and realize how oversold some of these companies are.
I'm getting déjà vu here:
GP813 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 7:11 pm
Yeah I know but Apple financing a deal like this is not a problem, at all. The problem would be regulating agencies but Apple is not an unpopular company with the public. The real pressure would come from its competitors pressuring the regulating agencies. Apple is way more popular with consumers than Google, Microsoft, and Facebook. Apple has a walled garden but people seem to love and trust Apple where they are skeptical of the other tech companies.
By the way Bob Iger thinks if Steve Jobs had lived longer this would have already happened. Steve Jobs was Disney's largest individual shareholder at one point because of the Pixar deal.
Even if Apple were in the market, there's no way Disney's board would accept a discount based on today's depressed share price.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
GP813 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:43 pm
Apple has nearly $200 billion cash/investments on hand. Disney is currently trading at a $188 billion market cap. Even with the premium Apple would have to pay, Apple can finance this deal easily. If Apple was to announce an interest in Disney, people would wake up and realize how oversold some of these companies are.
I may be in the minority, but why would Apple want to buy Disney? I've never liked Disney as an investment in general, and as an Apple shareholder, I would not like it if they bid for Disney.
Services. Apple wants you on a subscription model. They are building Apple TV+, add the Disney IP into the ecosystem(Mickey Mouse, Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel Cinematic Universe) and you have a captive audience. Down the road they can spin-off the parks and cruise lines and whatever they don't want to operate and license to whoever wants to buy it.
I suppose - but I really view streaming these days as a race to the bottom. All the major players are having to spend billions on content to keep subs. Even Disney reported elevated expenses this past quarter due to its streaming service.
Either way, I don't think Apple will buy Disney. It has already spent a lot of money on building out its own streaming service.
There is a difference between spending a lot on content looking for something that works and having bankable properties/animation studio that produces reliable hits like Disney, that's the difference.
drk wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 3:10 pm
Even if Apple were in the market, there's no way Disney's board would accept a discount based on today's depressed share price.
I wouldn't bet against Tim Cook if Apple wanted Disney. He fulfilled nearly every vision Steve Jobs had for Apple and there is a lot of evidence if Steve had lived Apple would have bought Disney.
GP813 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:43 pm
Apple has nearly $200 billion cash/investments on hand. Disney is currently trading at a $188 billion market cap. Even with the premium Apple would have to pay, Apple can finance this deal easily. If Apple was to announce an interest in Disney, people would wake up and realize how oversold some of these companies are.
I may be in the minority, but why would Apple want to buy Disney? I've never liked Disney as an investment in general, and as an Apple shareholder, I would not like it if they bid for Disney.
Services. Apple wants you on a subscription model. They are building Apple TV+, add the Disney IP into the ecosystem(Mickey Mouse, Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel Cinematic Universe) and you have a captive audience. Down the road they can spin-off the parks and cruise lines and whatever they don't want to operate and license to whoever wants to buy it.
I suppose - but I really view streaming these days as a race to the bottom. All the major players are having to spend billions on content to keep subs. Even Disney reported elevated expenses this past quarter due to its streaming service.
Either way, I don't think Apple will buy Disney. It has already spent a lot of money on building out its own streaming service.
There is a difference between spending a lot on content looking for something that works and having bankable properties/animation studio that produces reliable hits like Disney, that's the difference.
I wouldn't bet against Tim Cook if Apple wanted Disney. He fulfilled nearly every vision Steve Jobs had for Apple and there is a lot of evidence if Steve had lived Apple would have bought Disney.
GP813 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:43 pm
Apple has nearly $200 billion cash/investments on hand. Disney is currently trading at a $188 billion market cap. Even with the premium Apple would have to pay, Apple can finance this deal easily. If Apple was to announce an interest in Disney, people would wake up and realize how oversold some of these companies are.
I may be in the minority, but why would Apple want to buy Disney? I've never liked Disney as an investment in general, and as an Apple shareholder, I would not like it if they bid for Disney.
Services. Apple wants you on a subscription model. They are building Apple TV+, add the Disney IP into the ecosystem(Mickey Mouse, Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel Cinematic Universe) and you have a captive audience. Down the road they can spin-off the parks and cruise lines and whatever they don't want to operate and license to whoever wants to buy it.
I suppose - but I really view streaming these days as a race to the bottom. All the major players are having to spend billions on content to keep subs. Even Disney reported elevated expenses this past quarter due to its streaming service.
Either way, I don't think Apple will buy Disney. It has already spent a lot of money on building out its own streaming service.
There is a difference between spending a lot on content looking for something that works and having bankable properties/animation studio that produces reliable hits like Disney, that's the difference.
drk wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 3:10 pm
Even if Apple were in the market, there's no way Disney's board would accept a discount based on today's depressed share price.
I wouldn't bet against Tim Cook if Apple wanted Disney. He fulfilled nearly every vision Steve Jobs had for Apple and there is a lot of evidence if Steve had lived Apple would have bought Disney.
The only parts I'd want from Disney if a deal were to happen would be Disney's IP and studio division. I'd have no interest in the theme parks, cruises, hotels, etc. I doubt Disney's board would be willing to sell only those parts.
NewbieBogle007 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 3:21 pm
I think Apple under Tim isn’t as innovative.
I think Tim Cook made Apple the company Steve always wanted it to be without some of Steve's idiosyncrasies.
Tim has been a fantastic CEO, but I think Apple would look much different had Steve lived. There are a lot of things Apple does now that he would have disagreed with. But it's possible he may have adapted over the years. Apple nowadays changes to meet consumer demands. When Steve ran Apple, it was Steve's way, and he told the consumer what they needed, not vice versa.
NewbieBogle007 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 3:21 pm
I think Apple under Tim isn’t as innovative.
I think Tim Cook made Apple the company Steve always wanted it to be without some of Steve's idiosyncrasies.
Tim has been a fantastic CEO, but I think Apple would look much different had Steve lived. There are a lot of things Apple does now that he would have disagreed with. But it's possible he may have adapted over the years. Apple nowadays changes to meet consumer demands. When Steve ran Apple, it was Steve's way, and he told the consumer what they needed, not vice versa.
Yes without Steve's idiosyncrasies. Tim "Apple" actually listens to consumers. Jobs/Ive established that design was important but were getting very ridiculous with the dongle madness and design rigidity. Look at the new M1 Macbooks, people are raving about them. For as long as I've been alive Apple always struggled with the internal hardware and made up for it with software and ecosystem. They don't take a backseat to anybody anymore with their phone, tablet, and computer chips.
Last edited by GP813 on Thu May 12, 2022 8:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
GP813 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 3:14 pm
I wouldn't bet against Tim Cook if Apple wanted Disney. He fulfilled nearly every vision Steve Jobs had for Apple and there is a lot of evidence if Steve had lived Apple would have bought Disney.
If Tim Cook decided that he wanted Apple to buy Disney, I would absolutely bet against him. One of his hallmarks as CEO has been avoiding own-goals, and attempting a splashy mega-acquisition like that would reflect poorly on his judgment.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.