U.S. stocks in free fall

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staycalm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by staycalm » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:34 am

Will 800,000 furloughed federal workers be factored in to the unemployment rate?

Penguin
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Penguin » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:07 am

staycalm wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:34 am
Will 800,000 furloughed federal workers be factored in to the unemployment rate?
Probably not.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019 ... nuary.html
For the January employment report, this means that the BLS will count all Federal employees as employed in the establishment survey - whether on furlough, or working without pay. So don't expect a negative headline jobs number due to the government shutdown (although some non-government employees will likely lose their jobs if the shutdown continues).
Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019 ... qDwliFC.99
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MJS
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MJS » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm

Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."

Old_Dollar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Old_Dollar » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 pm

If federal workers aren't getting paid it means they aren't contributing to their TSP, HSA, or IRA accounts with money from their job. Could the market have a substantial "bounce" when federal employees receive their back pay and it gets deposited in their TSPs, HSAs, etc?
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MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:02 pm

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
You mean bear market, not recession. By the normal measure this bull is only 3 or so years old.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:17 pm

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
Bull/Bear markets and recessions are not the same thing. They do have frequent common occurrences, but I don't think there were really any recession events in December.

I think that we probably had a bear in US stocks, certainly in international. I don't think secular markets are even a useful concept, so I don't pay much attention to that sort of thing.
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:59 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:17 pm
MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
Bull/Bear markets and recessions are not the same thing. They do have frequent common occurrences, but I don't think there were really any recession events in December.
Since 1925, IIRC, there have been 15 bear markets but only 8 recessions. But the worst of the bear markets that occurred apart from a recession was about a -24% drawdown I believe.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by veggivet » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:03 pm

Old_Dollar wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 pm
If federal workers aren't getting paid it means they aren't contributing to their TSP, HSA, or IRA accounts with money from their job. Could the market have a substantial "bounce" when federal employees receive their back pay and it gets deposited in their TSPs, HSAs, etc?
I doubt it. Many workers will be using their first paycheck to catch up on bills, rent, car payments, etc.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:09 pm

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
Technically, SPUs were 20% below their peak. I think the number was something 79.xy%.
So, I guess the bull market was over.

But who cares.
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AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:11 pm

Old_Dollar wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 pm
If federal workers aren't getting paid it means they aren't contributing to their TSP, HSA, or IRA accounts with money from their job. Could the market have a substantial "bounce" when federal employees receive their back pay and it gets deposited in their TSPs, HSAs, etc?
I doubt. I don't think that federal employees comprise such a big share of the employed force, and I also don't think that they contribute as much to their savings plans as the upper rank of the private sector employees.

I mean, employed pool overall gets paid once every two weeks, and those contributions go into the stock market funds already.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

remomnyc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by remomnyc » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:55 pm

lazydavid wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:04 pm
TropikThunder wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:09 pm
Does Schwab not have a button called "exchange"?
They don't, but they have a trading function called "sell and buy another" that I think accomplishes the same thing.
At Schwab, it's called All-In-One Trade Tricket. You can buy and sell simultaneously when the market is open, but you can't buy if you need to sell first when the market is closed since the settlement price is not known. I've used it multiple times since October to TLH from VXUS to VEU to IXUS back to VXUS to VEU. Waiting my 30 days to get back to VXUS but may get stuck in VEU if international keeps climbing. Sorry, this is remomnyc, not lazydavid.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:42 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:11 pm
I don't think that federal employees comprise such a big share of the employed force, and I also don't think that they contribute as much to their savings plans as the upper rank of the private sector employees.
The rank and file are represented employees.The union is pro active in getting its members to use all of the hard earned benefits. It is also mandatory for employees to contribute to their pension.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am

Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:52 am

H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
Staying the course. Did buy a bit near the bottom of the recent correction and glad I made full Roth contribution earlier this month!

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by aristotelian » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:55 am

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
The bears will say "That wasn't a bear market. We are in the longest bull market in history and it is doomed to become a real bear market." The bulls will say, "That was close enough to a bear market and it wasn't so bad." The market doesn't care what it is called.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:06 am

aristotelian wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:55 am
MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
The bears will say "That wasn't a bear market. We are in the longest bull market in history and it is doomed to become a real bear market." The bulls will say, "That was close enough to a bear market and it wasn't so bad." The market doesn't care what it is called.
I say whatever happened it worked out to my advantage, meaning I am in a better position today than I was at the market highs on September 20th.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

TravelforFun
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TravelforFun » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:11 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:06 am
I say whatever happened it worked out to my advantage, meaning I am in a better position today than I was at the market highs on September 20th.
I got a way to go to get back up to the Sep 2018 level.

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nisiprius
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nisiprius » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:14 am

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
"Well, it looks like the BM is over...
Seriously, do people use BM as an initialism for "bull market?"
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by goodenyou » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:16 am

H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
I do. I am close to my 50% stock allocation. I have a (very) large position in Prime Money Market at 2.45%. I am deciding between deploying it to a higher percentage of stocks or be happy with 2.45% with little risk to the downside. I have little need to take risk.
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goodenyou
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by goodenyou » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:19 am

nisiprius wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:14 am
MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
"Well, it looks like the BM is over...
Seriously, do people use BM as an initialism for "bull market?"
Actually, a BM occurs when the market goes down, as in a Bear Market :wink:
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | "The best years you have left are the ones you have right now"

MisterMister
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MisterMister » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:19 am

Seems like optimism is a bit overblown right now.

Things like the possibly bogus report in WSJ about removing tariffs worry me. Market spikes, then we find out no one corroborates the report. Too much recent anecdotal news and fake news influencing the current rise. The market has the memory of a fruit fly.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:28 am

MisterMister wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:19 am
Seems like optimism is a bit overblown right now.

Things like the possibly bogus report in WSJ about removing tariffs worry me. Market spikes, then we find out no one corroborates the report. Too much recent anecdotal news and fake news influencing the current rise. The market has the memory of a fruit fly.
And yet as of close yesterday we were still down just over 10% from the highs in September back when you weren't worried.
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MisterMister
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MisterMister » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:31 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:28 am
MisterMister wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:19 am
Seems like optimism is a bit overblown right now.

Things like the possibly bogus report in WSJ about removing tariffs worry me. Market spikes, then we find out no one corroborates the report. Too much recent anecdotal news and fake news influencing the current rise. The market has the memory of a fruit fly.
And yet as of close yesterday we were still down just over 10% from the highs in September back when you weren't worried.
Actually I was plenty worried then. Of course worry and optimism just tempt toward market timing rather than sticking to a plan so neither is particularly useful in the BH philosophy.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bgf » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:41 am

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:52 am
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
Staying the course. Did buy a bit near the bottom of the recent correction and glad I made full Roth contribution earlier this month!
TLH at the end of last year and contributing $12k to Roth IRAs at the beginning of this year has worked out very well.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:15 pm

bgf wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:41 am
AnalogKid22 wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:52 am
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
Staying the course. Did buy a bit near the bottom of the recent correction and glad I made full Roth contribution earlier this month!
TLH at the end of last year and contributing $12k to Roth IRAs at the beginning of this year has worked out very well.
Great start to the year! Perhaps the down 2018 was an early XMas present to buy low prior to a very strong 2019. Or, maybe I'm completely wrong... :?

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:18 pm

goodenyou wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:19 am
nisiprius wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:14 am
MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
"Well, it looks like the BM is over...
Seriously, do people use BM as an initialism for "bull market?"
Actually, a BM occurs when the market goes down, as in a Bear Market :wink:
I thought it happened after my morning coffee :beer
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DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DanMahowny » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:20 pm

H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
I am basically all cash. I hold 0% equities.

This is far from over.
Funding secured

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happyisland
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by happyisland » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:23 pm

Good luck with timing the market! :sharebeer

DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:20 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
I am basically all cash. I hold 0% equities.

This is far from over.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:26 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:20 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
I am basically all cash. I hold 0% equities.

This is far from over.
Is the market Owning Mahowny? 8-)

I wish I had your confidence. And nerve.

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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:27 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:20 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
I am basically all cash. I hold 0% equities.

This is far from over.
Why not DCA?

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Davinci
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Davinci » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:35 pm

U.S. stocks in free fall
Fellow Bogleheads,

Please let's not revive this thread, there is correlation every time this thread gains momentum US stocks fall. Market has not recovered yet to recoup my losses from December. :(

Let's start another thread "U.S stocks continue to recover after December Loss" :beer

Cheers.
" Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" Leonardo Da Vinci.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:43 pm

Davinci wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:35 pm
Please let's not revive this thread, there is correlation every time this thread gains momentum US stocks fall. Market has not recovered yet to recoup my losses from December. :(
That tells me that you do not use rebalancing triggers like I do. Did you do any exchanging of fixed income into equities at all in December?
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Davinci
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Davinci » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:59 pm

That tells me that you do not use rebalancing triggers like I do. Did you do any exchanging of fixed income into equities at all in December?
Hi Livesoft,

You are correct, I do not use rebalancing triggers, I would love to learn what best works for you?

My IPS just calls to rebalance once per year but I think I need to add triggers, what do you recommend?

I did not exchange fixed income into equities in December. I did not have any fixed income (dry powder) to do that. I had $150k cash that I used to open a Vanguard taxable account on 10/15/18 as $100k VTSAX and $50k VTIAX. In hindsight maybe I should off DCA to buy some in December since I now only have $142k. :oops:

Buy the way I think I massively screw up my TLH so will post soon to get help.

Cheers,

DaVinci,
" Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" Leonardo Da Vinci.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:02 pm

livesoft wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:43 pm
Davinci wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:35 pm
Please let's not revive this thread, there is correlation every time this thread gains momentum US stocks fall. Market has not recovered yet to recoup my losses from December. :(
That tells me that you do not use rebalancing triggers like I do. Did you do any exchanging of fixed income into equities at all in December?
I did not but probably should have. Pretty much my rebalancing has occurred when the US Stock Market hit new highs and that rebalancing was from stocks to bonds. I guess I was chicken but at least I don't sell at market bottoms, better to panic at the top.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:12 pm

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:27 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:20 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
I am basically all cash. I hold 0% equities.

This is far from over.
Why not DCA?
He was invested and pulled out because he believes the market will decline. No reason to DCA that I can see (I still disagree with his plan).

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:17 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:12 pm
AnalogKid22 wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:27 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:20 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
I am basically all cash. I hold 0% equities.

This is far from over.
Why not DCA?
He was invested and pulled out because he believes the market will decline. No reason to DCA that I can see (I still disagree with his plan).
Understood, but the beauty of DCA lets you ride the tide, buying on ebbs and flows, without bailing. Seems like some people (not aimed at you) need to read up on the BH philosophy.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by livesoft » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:29 pm

Davinci wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:59 pm
You are correct, I do not use rebalancing triggers, I would love to learn what best works for you?
What works well for me is to use a ReallyBadDay (defined elsewhere on the forum) as a trigger to buy equities no matter what my current asset allocation is. Then I use a 5% band above my nominally desired asset allocation to rebalance back down below my trigger point.

Essentially, I am fearless when equities drop a huge amount in a single day.
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Davinci
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Davinci » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:39 pm

What works well for me is to use a ReallyBadDay (defined elsewhere on the forum) as a trigger to buy equities no matter what my current asset allocation is. Then I use a 5% band above my nominally desired asset allocation to rebalance back down below my trigger point.
Thank you Livesoft! This is going straight to my IPS, you are wise! I always wondered how Buffet has always been able to buy this way and multiply his fortune. Surely it should work for the average investor as well at a lower scale.
" Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" Leonardo Da Vinci.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:45 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:20 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
I am basically all cash. I hold 0% equities.

This is far from over.
You called the correction last time and you were right.

I hope you're right again. Although I'm 100% invested, I still have many working years with a lot of savings to come. A few major crashes here and there until I'm 40 would be nice.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by chevca » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:45 pm

Davinci wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:39 pm
What works well for me is to use a ReallyBadDay (defined elsewhere on the forum) as a trigger to buy equities no matter what my current asset allocation is. Then I use a 5% band above my nominally desired asset allocation to rebalance back down below my trigger point.
Thank you Livesoft! This is going straight to my IPS, you are wise! I always wondered how Buffet has always been able to buy this way and multiply his fortune. Surely it should work for the average investor as well at a lower scale.
Pretty sure Buffett's advice to the average investor is NOT to do what he does. :wink:

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by chevca » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:48 pm

H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:45 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:20 pm
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
I am basically all cash. I hold 0% equities.

This is far from over.
You called the correction last time and you were right.

I hope you're right again. Although I'm 100% invested, I still have many working years with a lot of savings to come. A few major crashes here and there until I'm 40 would be nice.
Do we have the world's first successful market timer here on Bogleheads, in DanMahowny? :happy

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Davinci
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Davinci » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:54 pm

You called the correction last time and you were right.

I hope you're right again. Although I'm 100% invested, I still have many working years with a lot of savings to come. A few major crashes here and there until I'm 40 would be nice.
H-Town, DanMahowny,

What are you doing in taxable? Are you leaving in money market for now to execute on ReallyBadDay or buying regardless?

How did you predicted the correction?

Cheers,
" Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" Leonardo Da Vinci.

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Davinci
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Davinci » Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:22 pm

Pretty sure Buffett's advice to the average investor is NOT to do what he does. :wink:
chevca,

Apologies for the oversimplification of my comment, you are correct. Do not want to confuse new investors.

I meant to say that when buffet unloads his monster truck of cash, should we also benefit by releasing our dry powder?

Then, how do we now when is unloading? By the time is unloaded we might be late to the party?

Cheers,
" Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" Leonardo Da Vinci.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:24 pm

Davinci wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:22 pm
Pretty sure Buffett's advice to the average investor is NOT to do what he does. :wink:
chevca,

Apologies for the oversimplification of my comment, you are correct. Do not want to confuse new investors.

I meant to say that when buffet unloads his monster truck of cash, should we also benefit by releasing our dry powder?

Then, how do we now when is unloading? By the time is unloaded we might be late to the party?

Cheers,
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that the 'dry powder' that Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on is there to enable them to buy companies without debt when a good opportunity arises.

For an investor buying the whole market, this strategy does not seem as appropriate.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:40 pm

Davinci wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:54 pm
You called the correction last time and you were right.

I hope you're right again. Although I'm 100% invested, I still have many working years with a lot of savings to come. A few major crashes here and there until I'm 40 would be nice.
H-Town, DanMahowny,

What are you doing in taxable? Are you leaving in money market for now to execute on ReallyBadDay or buying regardless?

How did you predicted the correction?

Cheers,
I'm not speaking for DanMahowny.

I'm 100% invested with no regrets. I'm not worried about market ups and downs. It would be nice if we have market crash here and there so that I can buy low. If not, no big deal.

It's more entertaining to talk sarcastic about market ups and downs. Sometimes I just predict a market correction out of nowhere... just for fun. Otherwise, investing is very boring.

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Davinci
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Davinci » Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:48 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that the 'dry powder' that Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on is there to enable them to buy companies without debt when a good opportunity arises.

For an investor buying the whole market, this strategy does not seem as appropriate.
Thanks for the clarification Willthrill81, yes it is apples to oranges.

Yes it is exactly what I was implying to buy the whole market when companies valuations are low and you are expected to get higher dividends and returns in the future. I thought I read somewhere that Buffet was buying companies like pancakes during 2007-2009 and other would have benefited from buying the total market, does that reasoning make sense?
" Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" Leonardo Da Vinci.

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jfn111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jfn111 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:53 pm

I went 80% cash today at the close. It may be a brilliant move or... :oops:

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:09 pm

jfn111 wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:53 pm
I went 80% cash today at the close. It may be a brilliant move or... :oops:
Whyfore thou go to 80% cash?

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knpstr
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by knpstr » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:13 pm

Davinci wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:22 pm
Pretty sure Buffett's advice to the average investor is NOT to do what he does. :wink:
chevca,

Apologies for the oversimplification of my comment, you are correct. Do not want to confuse new investors.

I meant to say that when buffet unloads his monster truck of cash, should we also benefit by releasing our dry powder?

Then, how do we now when is unloading? By the time is unloaded we might be late to the party?

Cheers,
If you are buying index funds Warren Buffett says you should buy whenever you have cash. Buy and buy consistently. Don't jump in and out. You should have no "dry powder".

If you are buying individual stocks, you should buy them at a substantial discount to intrinsic value. This "margin of safety" helps ensure a satisfactory return. If you can't find any attractive deals "dry powder" may build up as you are searching for a good investment, then you invest as soon as you find a good deal.

For passive investors, one should pay no attention to the market. Just buy, then buy, then buy some more. Go about living your life.
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

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Davinci
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Davinci » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:26 pm

If you are buying index funds Warren Buffett says you should buy whenever you have cash. Buy and buy consistently. Don't jump in and out. You should have no "dry powder".
Thank you knpstr, definitely passive investor and have been buying consistent amounts except when I opened my taxable account in October. The funds that went into taxable where from selling Megacorp stock into VTSAX/VTIAX. I am down from that but in for the long run 15-20 years.

Good clarification since I have seen in many threads and comments about this strategy to hold dry powder and unload the truck at the right time versus DCA.
" Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" Leonardo Da Vinci.

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