U.S. stocks in free fall

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staycalm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by staycalm » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:34 am

Will 800,000 furloughed federal workers be factored in to the unemployment rate?

Penguin
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Penguin » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:07 am

staycalm wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:34 am
Will 800,000 furloughed federal workers be factored in to the unemployment rate?
Probably not.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019 ... nuary.html
For the January employment report, this means that the BLS will count all Federal employees as employed in the establishment survey - whether on furlough, or working without pay. So don't expect a negative headline jobs number due to the government shutdown (although some non-government employees will likely lose their jobs if the shutdown continues).
Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019 ... qDwliFC.99
Jon

MJS
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MJS » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm

Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."

Old_Dollar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Old_Dollar » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 pm

If federal workers aren't getting paid it means they aren't contributing to their TSP, HSA, or IRA accounts with money from their job. Could the market have a substantial "bounce" when federal employees receive their back pay and it gets deposited in their TSPs, HSAs, etc?
I am here solely to learn about investing.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:02 pm

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
You mean bear market, not recession. By the normal measure this bull is only 3 or so years old.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:17 pm

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
Bull/Bear markets and recessions are not the same thing. They do have frequent common occurrences, but I don't think there were really any recession events in December.

I think that we probably had a bear in US stocks, certainly in international. I don't think secular markets are even a useful concept, so I don't pay much attention to that sort of thing.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:59 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:17 pm
MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
Bull/Bear markets and recessions are not the same thing. They do have frequent common occurrences, but I don't think there were really any recession events in December.
Since 1925, IIRC, there have been 15 bear markets but only 8 recessions. But the worst of the bear markets that occurred apart from a recession was about a -24% drawdown I believe.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

veggivet
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by veggivet » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:03 pm

Old_Dollar wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 pm
If federal workers aren't getting paid it means they aren't contributing to their TSP, HSA, or IRA accounts with money from their job. Could the market have a substantial "bounce" when federal employees receive their back pay and it gets deposited in their TSPs, HSAs, etc?
I doubt it. Many workers will be using their first paycheck to catch up on bills, rent, car payments, etc.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:09 pm

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
Technically, SPUs were 20% below their peak. I think the number was something 79.xy%.
So, I guess the bull market was over.

But who cares.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:11 pm

Old_Dollar wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 pm
If federal workers aren't getting paid it means they aren't contributing to their TSP, HSA, or IRA accounts with money from their job. Could the market have a substantial "bounce" when federal employees receive their back pay and it gets deposited in their TSPs, HSAs, etc?
I doubt. I don't think that federal employees comprise such a big share of the employed force, and I also don't think that they contribute as much to their savings plans as the upper rank of the private sector employees.

I mean, employed pool overall gets paid once every two weeks, and those contributions go into the stock market funds already.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

remomnyc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by remomnyc » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:55 pm

lazydavid wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:04 pm
TropikThunder wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:09 pm
Does Schwab not have a button called "exchange"?
They don't, but they have a trading function called "sell and buy another" that I think accomplishes the same thing.
At Schwab, it's called All-In-One Trade Tricket. You can buy and sell simultaneously when the market is open, but you can't buy if you need to sell first when the market is closed since the settlement price is not known. I've used it multiple times since October to TLH from VXUS to VEU to IXUS back to VXUS to VEU. Waiting my 30 days to get back to VXUS but may get stuck in VEU if international keeps climbing. Sorry, this is remomnyc, not lazydavid.

[ quote fixed by admin LadyGeek]

J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:42 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:11 pm
I don't think that federal employees comprise such a big share of the employed force, and I also don't think that they contribute as much to their savings plans as the upper rank of the private sector employees.
The rank and file are represented employees.The union is pro active in getting its members to use all of the hard earned benefits. It is also mandatory for employees to contribute to their pension.

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