U.S. stocks in free fall

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staycalm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by staycalm » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:34 am

Will 800,000 furloughed federal workers be factored in to the unemployment rate?

Penguin
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Penguin » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:07 am

staycalm wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:34 am
Will 800,000 furloughed federal workers be factored in to the unemployment rate?
Probably not.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019 ... nuary.html
For the January employment report, this means that the BLS will count all Federal employees as employed in the establishment survey - whether on furlough, or working without pay. So don't expect a negative headline jobs number due to the government shutdown (although some non-government employees will likely lose their jobs if the shutdown continues).
Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019 ... qDwliFC.99
Jon

MJS
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MJS » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm

Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."

Old_Dollar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Old_Dollar » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 pm

If federal workers aren't getting paid it means they aren't contributing to their TSP, HSA, or IRA accounts with money from their job. Could the market have a substantial "bounce" when federal employees receive their back pay and it gets deposited in their TSPs, HSAs, etc?
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MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:02 pm

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
You mean bear market, not recession. By the normal measure this bull is only 3 or so years old.

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:17 pm

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
Bull/Bear markets and recessions are not the same thing. They do have frequent common occurrences, but I don't think there were really any recession events in December.

I think that we probably had a bear in US stocks, certainly in international. I don't think secular markets are even a useful concept, so I don't pay much attention to that sort of thing.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:59 pm

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:17 pm
MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
Bull/Bear markets and recessions are not the same thing. They do have frequent common occurrences, but I don't think there were really any recession events in December.
Since 1925, IIRC, there have been 15 bear markets but only 8 recessions. But the worst of the bear markets that occurred apart from a recession was about a -24% drawdown I believe.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

veggivet
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by veggivet » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:03 pm

Old_Dollar wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 pm
If federal workers aren't getting paid it means they aren't contributing to their TSP, HSA, or IRA accounts with money from their job. Could the market have a substantial "bounce" when federal employees receive their back pay and it gets deposited in their TSPs, HSAs, etc?
I doubt it. Many workers will be using their first paycheck to catch up on bills, rent, car payments, etc.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:09 pm

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
Technically, SPUs were 20% below their peak. I think the number was something 79.xy%.
So, I guess the bull market was over.

But who cares.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

AlphaLess
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:11 pm

Old_Dollar wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:52 pm
If federal workers aren't getting paid it means they aren't contributing to their TSP, HSA, or IRA accounts with money from their job. Could the market have a substantial "bounce" when federal employees receive their back pay and it gets deposited in their TSPs, HSAs, etc?
I doubt. I don't think that federal employees comprise such a big share of the employed force, and I also don't think that they contribute as much to their savings plans as the upper rank of the private sector employees.

I mean, employed pool overall gets paid once every two weeks, and those contributions go into the stock market funds already.
"You can get more with a kind word and a gun than with just a kind word." George Washington

remomnyc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by remomnyc » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:55 pm

lazydavid wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:04 pm
TropikThunder wrote:
Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:09 pm
Does Schwab not have a button called "exchange"?
They don't, but they have a trading function called "sell and buy another" that I think accomplishes the same thing.
At Schwab, it's called All-In-One Trade Tricket. You can buy and sell simultaneously when the market is open, but you can't buy if you need to sell first when the market is closed since the settlement price is not known. I've used it multiple times since October to TLH from VXUS to VEU to IXUS back to VXUS to VEU. Waiting my 30 days to get back to VXUS but may get stuck in VEU if international keeps climbing. Sorry, this is remomnyc, not lazydavid.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:42 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:11 pm
I don't think that federal employees comprise such a big share of the employed force, and I also don't think that they contribute as much to their savings plans as the upper rank of the private sector employees.
The rank and file are represented employees.The union is pro active in getting its members to use all of the hard earned benefits. It is also mandatory for employees to contribute to their pension.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am

Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?

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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:52 am

H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
Staying the course. Did buy a bit near the bottom of the recent correction and glad I made full Roth contribution earlier this month!

aristotelian
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by aristotelian » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:55 am

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
The bears will say "That wasn't a bear market. We are in the longest bull market in history and it is doomed to become a real bear market." The bulls will say, "That was close enough to a bear market and it wasn't so bad." The market doesn't care what it is called.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:06 am

aristotelian wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:55 am
MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
Since we didn't [quite] see a recession during the Christmas Crash, does that mean the Longest Bull Market Ever is ongoing? The reports said "Well, it looks like the BM is over, unless | but | if ..."
The bears will say "That wasn't a bear market. We are in the longest bull market in history and it is doomed to become a real bear market." The bulls will say, "That was close enough to a bear market and it wasn't so bad." The market doesn't care what it is called.
I say whatever happened it worked out to my advantage, meaning I am in a better position today than I was at the market highs on September 20th.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

TravelforFun
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TravelforFun » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:11 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:06 am
I say whatever happened it worked out to my advantage, meaning I am in a better position today than I was at the market highs on September 20th.
I got a way to go to get back up to the Sep 2018 level.

TravelforFun

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nisiprius
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nisiprius » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:14 am

MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
"Well, it looks like the BM is over...
Seriously, do people use BM as an initialism for "bull market?"
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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goodenyou
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by goodenyou » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:16 am

H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
I do. I am close to my 50% stock allocation. I have a (very) large position in Prime Money Market at 2.45%. I am deciding between deploying it to a higher percentage of stocks or be happy with 2.45% with little risk to the downside. I have little need to take risk.
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | "The best years you have left are the ones you have right now"

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goodenyou
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by goodenyou » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:19 am

nisiprius wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:14 am
MJS wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:46 pm
"Well, it looks like the BM is over...
Seriously, do people use BM as an initialism for "bull market?"
Actually, a BM occurs when the market goes down, as in a Bear Market :wink:
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | "The best years you have left are the ones you have right now"

MisterMister
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MisterMister » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:19 am

Seems like optimism is a bit overblown right now.

Things like the possibly bogus report in WSJ about removing tariffs worry me. Market spikes, then we find out no one corroborates the report. Too much recent anecdotal news and fake news influencing the current rise. The market has the memory of a fruit fly.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:28 am

MisterMister wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:19 am
Seems like optimism is a bit overblown right now.

Things like the possibly bogus report in WSJ about removing tariffs worry me. Market spikes, then we find out no one corroborates the report. Too much recent anecdotal news and fake news influencing the current rise. The market has the memory of a fruit fly.
And yet as of close yesterday we were still down just over 10% from the highs in September back when you weren't worried.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

MisterMister
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MisterMister » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:31 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:28 am
MisterMister wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:19 am
Seems like optimism is a bit overblown right now.

Things like the possibly bogus report in WSJ about removing tariffs worry me. Market spikes, then we find out no one corroborates the report. Too much recent anecdotal news and fake news influencing the current rise. The market has the memory of a fruit fly.
And yet as of close yesterday we were still down just over 10% from the highs in September back when you weren't worried.
Actually I was plenty worried then. Of course worry and optimism just tempt toward market timing rather than sticking to a plan so neither is particularly useful in the BH philosophy.

bgf
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bgf » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:41 am

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:52 am
H-Town wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:49 am
Anyone still hold cash on the sideline?
Staying the course. Did buy a bit near the bottom of the recent correction and glad I made full Roth contribution earlier this month!
TLH at the end of last year and contributing $12k to Roth IRAs at the beginning of this year has worked out very well.
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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