U.S. stocks in freefall

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MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue May 22, 2018 10:42 am

thangngo wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 9:59 am
So back to the conviction of some bogleheads above to stay out of the market and pray for a big crash. Is S&P 500 rate of return not enough for you? Do you want more? How much more? And how do you plan to achieve higher return? With market timing?
100% micro-cap value :). Or maybe TSLA.

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pokebowl
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pokebowl » Tue May 29, 2018 4:03 am

Appears it is going to be one of those days, thanks to EMEA. :beer Futures are all over the place this morning.

motorcyclesarecool
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by motorcyclesarecool » Tue May 29, 2018 5:03 am

I was reading a thread about German bonds for Italian investors and wondering to myself what in that scenario would stop a national bank run, and consequent hammering of the entire Eurozone. I have a feeling we’re going to see Treasury yields crumble from that flight to safety.
Understand that choosing an HDHP is very much a "red pill" approach. Most would rather pay higher premiums for a $20 copay per visit. They will think you weird for choosing an HSA.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue May 29, 2018 10:29 am

This bunny market just keeps hopping, and hopping, and hopping.....Kinda of like that pink battery bunny.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

dknightd
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dknightd » Tue May 29, 2018 10:34 am

I still hope it takes its dump before I retire

gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gmaynardkrebs » Tue May 29, 2018 1:05 pm

dknightd wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 10:34 am
I still hope it takes its dump before I retire
So does everyone, which is why it is so unlikely.

Engineer250
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Engineer250 » Tue May 29, 2018 1:10 pm

motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 5:03 am
I was reading a thread about German bonds for Italian investors and wondering to myself what in that scenario would stop a national bank run, and consequent hammering of the entire Eurozone. I have a feeling we’re going to see Treasury yields crumble from that flight to safety.
I hope not. Yield on 10-Y is about the only thing I've been paying attention to. I was so excited to see it finally go over 3, and now dropping like a rock down to 2.8. I hate that inflation appears to be picking up and bank savings interest is still total crap. If inflation picks up, my wages will definitely lag but it looks like my savings and emergency fund will as well.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.

Jags4186
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jags4186 » Tue May 29, 2018 1:17 pm

In other news bitcoin is up 5% today!

FrugalFrida
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FrugalFrida » Tue May 29, 2018 2:07 pm

I put in a buy order for Vanguard US 500 index fund :greedy it takes a few days to process though.

feh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by feh » Tue May 29, 2018 3:37 pm

Holy cow - the yield on US treasuries (both 2 year and 10 year) fell about 15 basis points today.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treas ... 2018-05-29

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Tue May 29, 2018 5:01 pm

Big day — I have to add another Tesla or two to the fleet (using Livesoft’s Rule).

livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Tue May 29, 2018 5:04 pm

In the end, nothing I owned dropped even 2%.
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fujiters
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fujiters » Tue May 29, 2018 5:13 pm

Not US, but harvested losses in VXUS today.
“The purpose of the margin of safety is to render the forecast unnecessary.” -Benjamin Graham

columbia
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by columbia » Tue May 29, 2018 5:15 pm

It’s funny how international drops even further on days like this; not sure funny is the correct word, of course.

jebmke
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jebmke » Tue May 29, 2018 5:20 pm

livesoft wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 5:04 pm
In the end, nothing I owned dropped even 2%.
and bonds did quite well even though everyone knows that interest rates have nowhere to go but up.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

motorcyclesarecool
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by motorcyclesarecool » Tue May 29, 2018 5:29 pm

Can someone explain to me again why international bonds, whether hedged or not?
Understand that choosing an HDHP is very much a "red pill" approach. Most would rather pay higher premiums for a $20 copay per visit. They will think you weird for choosing an HSA.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Tue May 29, 2018 5:53 pm

livesoft wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 5:04 pm
In the end, nothing I owned dropped even 2%.
The reason I got to invoke your rule re Tesla was that some unvested RSUs dropped around 5%. I know, I know, I shouldn’t track unvested RSUs.

drk
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by drk » Tue May 29, 2018 8:51 pm

livesoft wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 5:04 pm
In the end, nothing I owned dropped even 2%.
You don't own any VEA, VWO, IEFA, or IEMG?

livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by livesoft » Tue May 29, 2018 8:56 pm

Of those, I own VEA. I see a different price quote than when I posted earlier, so it was -1.99% then, but Vanguard says now -2.01%. I stand sit corrected.
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thangngo
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by thangngo » Tue May 29, 2018 9:15 pm

2018 YTD has been a good time for accumulators for sure.

averagedude
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by averagedude » Tue May 29, 2018 9:31 pm

Been watching alot of financial news over the years. Half of the experts say the stock market is going to go down. The other half say the stock market is going to go up. They are all correct.

JustinR
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JustinR » Tue May 29, 2018 9:44 pm

drk wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 8:51 pm
livesoft wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 5:04 pm
In the end, nothing I owned dropped even 2%.
You don't own any VEA, VWO, IEFA, or IEMG?
Why is VWO down 2.21% but the mutual fund equivalents (VEMAX, VEIEX) only down 1.28%?

protagonist
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by protagonist » Tue May 29, 2018 9:48 pm

averagedude wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 9:31 pm
Been watching alot of financial news over the years. Half of the experts say the stock market is going to go down. The other half say the stock market is going to go up. They are all correct.
No, they are all wrong. None of them have a clue. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005 ... -an-expert

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munemaker
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by munemaker » Tue May 29, 2018 10:47 pm

JustinR wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 9:44 pm
drk wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 8:51 pm
livesoft wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 5:04 pm
In the end, nothing I owned dropped even 2%.
You don't own any VEA, VWO, IEFA, or IEMG?
Why is VWO down 2.21% but the mutual fund equivalents (VEMAX, VEIEX) only down 1.28%?
The value of the mutual fund is calculated daily based on prices of the underlying assets. The value of the ETF is set by the market. The two don't necessarily agree.

drk
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by drk » Tue May 29, 2018 11:07 pm

JustinR wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 9:44 pm
Why is VWO down 2.21% but the mutual fund equivalents (VEMAX, VEIEX) only down 1.28%?
Traders expected more losses to come in the underlying stocks.

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gmtret
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gmtret » Wed May 30, 2018 1:23 am

Meh... this is nothing in the scheme of things. Establish a diversified portfolio and add to it as you can. Ignore the fluctuations and add to it as you can.

History reports that patience and steadfastness will out.
"The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and science." | - Albert Einstein

Cantrip
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Cantrip » Wed May 30, 2018 6:44 am

drk wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 11:07 pm
JustinR wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 9:44 pm
Why is VWO down 2.21% but the mutual fund equivalents (VEMAX, VEIEX) only down 1.28%?
Traders expected more losses to come in the underlying stocks.
Interesting. I tax loss harvested yesterday by selling VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets Fund down 1.28% end of day, I expected it to be lower) and buying SPEM (Spider Emerging Markets ETF bought when down 2%) in another account. Did I make a 0.7% gain by random chance?

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Wed May 30, 2018 7:22 am

motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 5:29 pm
Can someone explain to me again why international bonds, whether hedged or not?
No.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

david1082b
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by david1082b » Wed May 30, 2018 10:50 am

motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 5:29 pm
Can someone explain to me again why international bonds, whether hedged or not?
Not sure why bonds are being referenced on a "stocks in freefall" thread, but for the heck of it let's look at Vanguard Total International Bond BNDX versus Total Bond Market BND since BNDX started in 2013: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

BNDX is flat this year while BND is down a couple of %. If you want to avoid international bonds because of perceived negatives for them, you'd probably want to avoid USA bonds too, since USA bonds can also have negatives. Plenty of people ask "why any bonds at all?" International bonds might be a worse or better bet than USA bonds. Stocks might also be better or worse than bonds, but stocks also have potential negatives, so "why stocks" can also be a question you can ask. Do you even need stock risk to meet your financial goals?

motorcyclesarecool
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by motorcyclesarecool » Wed May 30, 2018 11:28 am

My remark was tongue in cheek. Yesterday’s “freefall” was brought about by a flight to safety from certain Eurozone countries. Equities plunged, and Treasuries surged. It seems reasonable that international bonds are well correlated to domestic stocks in our global system, reducing their value in diversification. Which is at the nub of why international bonds. It seems reasonable that Eurozone troubles are not over. Also emerging market bonds appear shaky. Why seek stability in an asset positively correlated to stocks?
Understand that choosing an HDHP is very much a "red pill" approach. Most would rather pay higher premiums for a $20 copay per visit. They will think you weird for choosing an HSA.

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lostdog » Wed May 30, 2018 11:39 am

Interesting year so far. We keep crossing 500k in investments. I lost count on how many times we went back and forth. We just keep investing as scheduled. A good year to keep accumulating.

lukestuckenhymer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by lukestuckenhymer » Wed May 30, 2018 11:54 am

Cantrip wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 6:44 am
Interesting. I tax loss harvested yesterday by selling VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets Fund down 1.28% end of day, I expected it to be lower) and buying SPEM (Spider Emerging Markets ETF bought when down 2%) in another account. Did I make a 0.7% gain by random chance?
Isn't this a wash sale?

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pokebowl
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pokebowl » Wed May 30, 2018 1:16 pm

lostdog wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 11:39 am
Interesting year so far. We keep crossing 500k in investments. I lost count on how many times we went back and forth. We just keep investing as scheduled. A good year to keep accumulating.
I see you are following the voyager investment strategy.

Image

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grabiner
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by grabiner » Wed May 30, 2018 7:47 pm

pokebowl wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 1:16 pm
lostdog wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 11:39 am
Interesting year so far. We keep crossing 500k in investments. I lost count on how many times we went back and forth. We just keep investing as scheduled. A good year to keep accumulating.
I see you are following the voyager investment strategy.

Image
Voyager Select, actually. Vanguard doesn't automatically promote you on the day you go over, although it will happen eventually, or you can contact Vanguard as soon as you make it.
Wiki David Grabiner

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grabiner
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by grabiner » Wed May 30, 2018 7:50 pm

lukestuckenhymer wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 11:54 am
Cantrip wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 6:44 am
Interesting. I tax loss harvested yesterday by selling VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets Fund down 1.28% end of day, I expected it to be lower) and buying SPEM (Spider Emerging Markets ETF bought when down 2%) in another account. Did I make a 0.7% gain by random chance?
Isn't this a wash sale?
That's up to the IRS to determine; are these two funds substantially identical? A common opinion (not to be treated as tax advice; ask your tax advisor) is that two funds tracking the same index (two S&P 500 funds) are substantially identical, while two funds tracking different indexes in the same market segment are not. It is easier to defend this position with emerging markets indexes, as different providers disagree on which markets qualify as emerging.
Wiki David Grabiner

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walletless
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by walletless » Thu May 31, 2018 7:57 pm

Wow, no reply here today. We're getting used to this!

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220volt
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 220volt » Thu May 31, 2018 8:05 pm

Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction.
"If I had only followed the advice of financial analysts in 2008, I'd have a million dollars today, provided I started with a hundred million dollars" - Jon Stewart

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JoMoney » Thu May 31, 2018 8:09 pm

Wake me after we've either reached a new high, or fall through the year to date low.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

david1082b
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by david1082b » Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:25 am

220volt wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 8:05 pm
Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction.
2.5% return so far this year to be pedantic http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:42 am

david1082b wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:25 am
220volt wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 8:05 pm
Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction.
2.5% return so far this year to be pedantic http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) total return is up 2.59% year to date (5/31/18), which is 6.22% if annualized. Not so shabby.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:26 am

david1082b wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:25 am
220volt wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 8:05 pm
Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction.
2.5% return so far this year to be pedantic http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
I'm actually up 6.04% YTD. I'd take this every year from here on out if I could.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

bgf
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by bgf » Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:42 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:26 am
david1082b wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:25 am
220volt wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 8:05 pm
Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction.
2.5% return so far this year to be pedantic http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
I'm actually up 6.04% YTD. I'd take this every year from here on out if I could.
are you overweight nasdaq and small cap? individual stocks? very nice YTD return!
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:04 pm

bgf wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:42 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:26 am
david1082b wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:25 am
220volt wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 8:05 pm
Market hasn't gone anywhere this year. It seems to be hoarding energy like a loaded spring before exploding in yet to be seen direction.
2.5% return so far this year to be pedantic http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D
I'm actually up 6.04% YTD. I'd take this every year from here on out if I could.
are you overweight nasdaq and small cap? individual stocks? very nice YTD return!
I'm a trend follower, and I was heavy in emerging markets for a while but have been in mostly large cap growth and mid-cap growth this year.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

MJW
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MJW » Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:20 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:04 pm
I'm a trend follower, and I was heavy in emerging markets for a while but have been in mostly large cap growth and mid-cap growth this year.
What does trend following entail for you?

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Oak&Elm
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Anyone buying today?

Post by Oak&Elm » Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:41 am

I have been slowing building my cash position up to purchase more CD's but with the US Market set to open down over 1% I'm tempted to pick up a little more TSM instead. I'm still within my AA bands of +-5% either way. Just thinking back to my risk assessment and the question of what would you do if stock prices dropped. (sell,buy,hold) Yes, I know the Market could drop again tomorrow or go right back up. One thing I do know for sure is I can purchase more shares of TSM today than I could yesterday.

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bottlecap
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Re: Anyone buying today?

Post by bottlecap » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:03 am

I don’t have time to watch the market. Just put it regular and you’ll be fine. Lots of other things to worry about.

JT

truenorth418
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Re: Anyone buying today?

Post by truenorth418 » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:06 am

I'll wait a couple of days so I don't "buy" the Q2 dividend.

md&pharmacist
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Re: Anyone buying today?

Post by md&pharmacist » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:08 am

Wait until after the next correction (>10%) stabilizes if you want to buy. It's the summer, a good likelihood a good opportunity will come.

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dwickenh
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Re: Anyone buying today?

Post by dwickenh » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:14 am

1% is not actionable for me, I am reinvesting dividends and interest every month.

Dan
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett

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ReformedSpender
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Re: Anyone buying today?

Post by ReformedSpender » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:16 am

md&pharmacist wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:08 am
Wait until after the next correction (>10%) stabilizes if you want to buy. It's the summer, a good likelihood a good opportunity will come.
Which could be 12%+ higher than today's price, meaning you "missed out" by not purchasing shares when you had the means to do so

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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