madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2007 returns, 2007 YTD returns, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 (8 years 10 months, 6 years 10 months, 4 years 10 months, 2 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001.

The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at "The Coffeehouse Investor". (I'm not allowed to post a link yet...) The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. This year I'm also adding William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

The madsinger portfolio (slice-n-dice, approximately 67/5/3/25 stock/REIT/PM/bond) is included at the end.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                Oct     YTD     since   since   since   since
                2007    2007    1999    2001    2003    2005
Sheltered Sam   2.68%  11.25%   10.41%  10.69%  20.36%  15.72%
VFINX           1.58%  10.77%    4.22%   4.01%  14.32%  10.94%

s&d             2.77%  10.27%   10.00%  10.08%  18.09%  13.78%
Newsletter G    3.54%  16.90%   13.13%   9.09%  19.39%  16.51%
3 fund          2.96%  13.66%    7.00%   7.43%  16.46%  13.54%
LS G            2.39%  12.24%    6.30%   6.58%  15.61%  12.41%

coffeehouse     1.74%   6.86%    8.49%   8.70%  13.41%   9.77%
Wellington      1.01%  10.37%    8.37%   8.66%  13.18%  11.32%
newsletter CG   2.87%  14.60%    9.97%   8.04%  16.63%  13.84%
STAR            1.93%  10.03%    7.82%   7.47%  13.01%  10.27%
LS MG           1.98%  10.37%    6.20%   6.45%  12.79%  10.35%
     
Wellesley       0.99%   6.33%    6.92%   7.34%   7.89%   7.39%
newsletter Inc  0.85%   7.40%    5.70%   6.60%  10.62%   8.54%
LS CG           1.56%   8.47%    5.90%   6.03%   9.90%   8.29%

madsinger       2.34%  10.70%                           12.86%

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gbs
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Post by gbs »

Thanks madsinger,

I am a long time reader of your posts. Glad to see you posting here!

Regards, gbs
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Post by gkaplan »

Brad, I'm also glad to see you're posting here. I'll check in with you at the end of December.
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Post by investor »

Brad, thanks for the posts.
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Post by Bounca »

Woot!!!! :lol:

Glad your here. Thanks as always.
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Post by stratton »

Nice!

I love these posts.

Paul
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paulob
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Re: madsinger monthly report

Post by paulob »

madsinger wrote:

Code: Select all

                                CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                Oct     YTD     since   since   since   since
                2007    2007    1999    2001    2003    2005
Sheltered Sam   2.68%  11.25%   10.41%  10.69%  20.36%  15.72%
VFINX           1.58%  10.77%    4.22%   4.01%  14.32%  10.94%

s&d             2.77%  10.27%   10.00%  10.08%  18.09%  13.78%
Newsletter G    3.54%  16.90%   13.13%   9.09%  19.39%  16.51%
3 fund          2.96%  13.66%    7.00%   7.43%  16.46%  13.54%
LS G            2.39%  12.24%    6.30%   6.58%  15.61%  12.41%

coffeehouse     1.74%   6.86%    8.49%   8.70%  13.41%   9.77%
Wellington      1.01%  10.37%    8.37%   8.66%  13.18%  11.32%
newsletter CG   2.87%  14.60%    9.97%   8.04%  16.63%  13.84%
STAR            1.93%  10.03%    7.82%   7.47%  13.01%  10.27%
LS MG           1.98%  10.37%    6.20%   6.45%  12.79%  10.35%
     
Wellesley       0.99%   6.33%    6.92%   7.34%   7.89%   7.39%
newsletter Inc  0.85%   7.40%    5.70%   6.60%  10.62%   8.54%
LS CG           1.56%   8.47%    5.90%   6.03%   9.90%   8.29%

madsinger       2.34%  10.70%                           12.86%

October was berra, berra good to me. I had been trailing the listed portfolios. YTD my IRA is now up 21.4%
Paul
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Post by Rodc »

October was berra, berra good to me. I had been trailing the listed portfolios. YTD my IRA is now up 21.4%
So far, how is November shaping up?
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Re: madsinger monthly report

Post by Mel Lindauer »

paulob wrote:October was berra, berra good to me. I had been trailing the listed portfolios. YTD my IRA is now up 21.4%
Hi Paul:

Perhaps you should think about staring your own mutual fund. MM is starting one, and his YTD return is -10+% (yes, that's minus), so you're obviously blowing him out of the water! :D

And, if you don't want to pick stocks, you could just make your fund a fund-of-funds.

Regards,

Mel
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Sheltered Sam Surprise?

Post by hoppyn »

What does anyone make of Sheltered Sam and the second place showing!!
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Post by mbrasher1 »

What is the Newsletter G portfolio??
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Post by Petrocelli »

mbrasher1 wrote:What is the Newsletter G portfolio??
It's the growth portfolio from Dan Wiener's newsletter.

http://www.adviseronline.com/
Petrocelli (not the real Rico, but just a fan)
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Post by paulob »

Rodc wrote:
October was berra, berra good to me. I had been trailing the listed portfolios. YTD my IRA is now up 21.4%
So far, how is November shaping up?
November has been berra, berra bad to me!
Paul
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Re: madsinger monthly report

Post by paulob »

Mel Lindauer wrote:
paulob wrote:October was berra, berra good to me. I had been trailing the listed portfolios. YTD my IRA is now up 21.4%
Hi Paul:

Perhaps you should think about staring your own mutual fund. MM is starting one, and his YTD return is -10+% (yes, that's minus), so you're obviously blowing him out of the water! :D

And, if you don't want to pick stocks, you could just make your fund a fund-of-funds.

Regards,

Mel
Hi Mel,

I'm pretty sure I would starve if I had to pick stocks for a living. In terms of a fund-of-funds, my benchmark is a fund of funds that has returned 28.05% YTD. So, at 21.4%, I'm guessing my fund would have to much tracking error to attract any money :)

Regarding that newly minted fund, I am still waiting on the prospectus. In addition to the standard risks, I'm assuming there will be disclosure of "Manager gone wild" risk (picking stocks in your pajamas while sipping on martinis) :!:
Paul
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madsinger
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does anybody look at the subject line?

Post by madsinger »

November has been berra, berra bad to me!

Hmmm...for the month of October, I was up 2.33%. For the "month" (i.e. one day) of November, I'm down 2.30%. For the compounding weenies among us....that actually makes me down 0.02% for the stretch!

-Brad.
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Bounca
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Post by Bounca »

For Oct.

Me %1.18
The wifes % 2.16

Both 70/30 stock/bond.
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simba
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Post by simba »

Brad,

Thanks for the wonderful contributions. Always appreciated your posts.
I was checking the values you posted and I seem to be getting different numbers than what you posted.

Take the simple 3 fund (50/30/20)

Code: Select all

              YTD      Oct
VTSMX   50%  11.12%   1.85%         
VGTSX   30%  23.88%   5.90%         
VBMFX   20%   4.69%   0.93%         
3 Fund       13.66%   2.88%
Am I doing something wrong?

Regards,
Simba
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madsinger
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chart method...

Post by madsinger »

Hi Simba,

Thank you for checking my numbers! I do want these charts to be accurate. Let me explain my method. At the beginning of the year, I start with the portfolios as described. In the case of the three fund portfolio, 50/30/20 VTSMX/VGTSX/VBMFX. I then let each portfolio ride for the year (as if you put, for example, $50,000 in VTSMX, $30,000 in VGTSX and $20,000 VBMFX and then did not touch them for the rest of the year (re-investing all dividends).

At the end of September, the three funds had returned 9.10%, 16.98% and 3.73% respectively. The "portfolio" return at the end of September was:

50% * 9.10% + 30% * 16.98% + 20% * 3.73% = 10.39%

Applying the same approach to the end of October returns, you verified that the portfolio had a return of 13.66%. So...what was the portfolio's return for October? It's whatever return got us from 10.39% to 13.66%:

(1 + Oct_return) * (1 + Sep_YTD) = (1 + Oct_YTD)
Oct_return = (1 + Oct_YTD ) / (1 + Sep_YTD ) - 1
Oct_return = (1.1366)/(1.1039) - 1 = 2.96%

Why isn't this the same as applying the portfolio weights to each funds' October return? Because the portfolio is no longer 50/30/20 by the end of September. Using my $100,000 portfolio at the beginning of the year, by the end of September:

VTSMX = $50,000 * (1 + 9.10%) = $54,550
VGTSX = $30,000 * (1 + 16.98%) = $35,094
VBMFX = $20,000 * (1 + 3.73% ) = $20,746

For a total of $110,390 (a 10.39% return). But the percentage breakdown of the portfolio is now:

VTSMX = $54,550 / $110,390 = 49.42%
VGTSX = $35,094 / $110,390 = 31.79%
VBMFX = $20,746 / $110,390 = 18.79%

Also, I do "rebalance" these portfolios at the beginning of each year. So, the multiyear returns are the result of annual rebalancing.

I hope this is clear!

-Brad.
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Re: chart method...

Post by indexfundfan »

madsinger wrote:Hi Simba,

Thank you for checking my numbers! I do want these charts to be accurate. Let me explain my method. At the beginning of the year, I start with the portfolios as described. In the case of the three fund portfolio, 50/30/20 VTSMX/VGTSX/VBMFX. I then let each portfolio ride for the year (as if you put, for example, $50,000 in VTSMX, $30,000 in VGTSX and $20,000 VBMFX and then did not touch them for the rest of the year (re-investing all dividends).
Brad, thanks for your updates.

What about for your own portfolio? Do you also start with your target allocations at the beginning of the year and let it ride or do you actually update the numbers according to the actual returns (computing by XIRR or some other means)?

FWIW, my 70% equity/30% fixed-income portfolio returned ~3.4% in October, helped by the 10% dose of emerging markets.
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my portfolio...

Post by madsinger »

What about for your own portfolio?

The "madsinger portfolio" is my real investment money (no emergency fund, or such...) So, it contains my 401-k contributions, my monthly, taxable investments, and my rebalancing exchanges. I compute the "YTD return" with the XIRR function, and then "scale" the annualized return to the number of days we've had YTD:

XIRR_YTD = (1+XIRR_annualized) ^ (num_days_YTD/365) - 1

So, it is not a "static" portfolio, and does not have fixed percentages. The target for my portfolio now is 67/5/3/25 stock/REIT/PM/Bond, with lots of slicing-n-dicing in the stock portion (75/25 US/Foreign, heavy lean towards small and value in both).

It's not quite a one-to-one comparison with the rest of the chart, but I think it's somewhat interesting to see a "real world" portfolio amongst those "paper portfolios".

-Brad.
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re: my portfolio

Post by SageNolos »

Hi Brad,

I am also glad to see the Madsinger monthly report here. I am a long time lurker at the Diehards posts, while I participated at HO tracking posts. Now I have difficulty finding those posts.

Another "real world" portfolio: Mine Up 18.60% vs FFNOX up 10.93% ytd (10/31/07). Now is 75/7/17 Stock/Bond/Cash, with the stock portion (50/50 US/Foreign and 60/40 Growth/Value).
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Post by buyza »

Petrocelli wrote:
mbrasher1 wrote:What is the Newsletter G portfolio??
It's the growth portfolio from Dan Wiener's newsletter.

http://www.adviseronline.com/
Anyone mind posting the break down of that portfolio? Curious to see what he has done. Also if anyone can post the other portfolio break downs that would be awesome. Just toying with my own portfolio and wouldn't mind some more insight as to how they add in things like TIPS, Bonds, REITs etc.

Thanks,
matt
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

Anyone mind posting the break down of that portfolio?

Well...the publisher of this newsletter does charge a fee for it, so for someone to post this information would be violating some trust there. Although I do not subscribe to this or any newsletter, my understanding is that you can get a "no-risk" subscription, and cancel after a few issues to get your money back if you want.

-Brad.
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Post by Petrocelli »

buyza wrote:
Anyone mind posting the break down of that portfolio? Curious to see what he has done. Also if anyone can post the other portfolio break downs that would be awesome. Just toying with my own portfolio and wouldn't mind some more insight as to how they add in things like TIPS, Bonds, REITs etc.

Thanks,
matt
Matt:

Without giving the specifics of Dan Wiener's Growth Portfolio, it breaks down like this:

Large growth: 13%
Mid Growth: 19%
Large Value: 5%
Mid Value: 20%
International:30%
Sector: 9%
Bonds: 4%
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Post by buyza »

When you say sector, you mean a sector like energy, tech, REITs or something? Don't have to say which, just want to make sure I am understanding correctly.

And yah that break down is perfect, thanks.
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Post by Petrocelli »

buyza wrote:When you say sector, you mean a sector like energy, tech, REITs or something?
Yes.
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Post by simba »

madsinger wrote:Also, I do "rebalance" these portfolios at the beginning of each year. So, the multiyear returns are the result of annual rebalancing.
Brad - Thank you for the detailed explanation. I missed the "rebalance annually" part.

How do you get the MMM_YTD for the analysis? (Manually for each fund)?

Regards
Simba
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Post by TnGuy »

Brad - very good to see you posting your work over here! Welcome aboard!

Been away for a few days, but here's what happened to the TnGuy 100% equity port in October. (all figures via M*):

Oct. - 3.96%
YTD - 18.96%
12 Month - 27.47%

Leaders:

EM - 12.31%
Intl. LG - 5.43%

Laggards:

Intl. LV - 3.76%
Intl. REIT - 3.53%
LG - 2.87%
SG - 1.96%
SV - 1.78%
REIT - 1.22%
LV - 0.21%

Tough to label anything a "laggard" in October (well, perhaps my LV fits the bill at 0.21%), but once again all-things international flew through the roof - w/ EM still possibly on it's way to leaving the solar system altogether.


Yes, my port took a crashing 3.05% blow on Thursday and then proceeded to rebound a bit on Friday. Let's see what the rest of November has in store!


David
"Money will not make you happy. And happy will not make you money." - Groucho Marx
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Post by madsinger »

How do you get the MMM_YTD for the analysis? (Manually for each fund)?

Hi Simba,

The most recent "month end YTD returns" are available on Vanguard's website. If you go the the "Fund Prices" page and find the "drop down" box, you can display Cumulative returns:

Vanguard Cumulative Returns

This shows the YTD return at the end of the most recent month (as well as the month return and 3-month return).

-Brad.
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