madsinger monthly report (April 2011)

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madsinger monthly report (April 2011)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2011 returns, 2011 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2006 and 2008 (12 years 4 months, 10 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 62/5/3/30 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                  CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Apr     YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2011    2011    2008    2006    2001    1999
Hot Hands         3.51%  14.52%  -3.97%   3.43%  10.54%  12.52%
Sheltered Sam     3.64%   9.31%   1.39%   5.42%   6.66%   7.10%
VFINX             2.95%   9.00%  -0.07%   3.74%   2.12%   2.57%
                  
s&d               3.52%   8.10%   3.28%   6.30%   7.04%   7.47%
Newsletter G-IND  3.56%  10.40%   1.27%   5.81%   5.93%   5.15%
Newsletter G      3.33%   8.50%   0.79%   5.60%   5.57%   8.93%
3 fund            3.34%   7.59%   1.97%   5.84%   5.07%   5.15%
LS G              3.34%   8.02%   0.57%   4.61%   4.06%   4.26%
                  
coffeehouse       2.77%   6.78%   4.96%   6.35%   6.92%   7.05%
Wellington        2.79%   7.07%   3.68%   6.58%   6.70%   6.81%
STAR              3.04%   6.66%   3.29%   5.43%   5.66%   6.20%
Newsletter CG     3.15%   7.90%   1.06%   5.08%   5.06%   6.88%
LS MG             2.86%   6.54%   1.98%   5.02%   4.60%   4.72%
                  
Wellesley         2.58%   5.33%   6.12%   6.98%   6.76%   6.56%
Newsletter Inc    2.90%   6.30%   2.72%   4.36%   4.82%   4.52%
LS CG             2.28%   4.97%   2.87%   5.05%   4.76%   4.88%
                  
madsinger         2.81%   6.82%   3.73%   6.33%      
Last edited by madsinger on Tue May 03, 2011 10:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by madsinger »

April was another big, positive month. Most stock funds up near 3%, bonds up about 1%. YTD numbers look very strong (and it's only April...uh oh).

Wishing you all well.

-Brad.
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Post by DblDoc »

Thanks for continuing to post these.

DD
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Post by texas_archer »

yeah, thanks for posting. give me something to compare to.
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Post by Ever Ready »

deleted, see update below
Last edited by Ever Ready on Tue May 03, 2011 11:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by livesoft »

@Everready: I like the way madsinger has grouped portfolio based on percent of bonds. In your large-font re-hash, that is not done. Care to add a column noting the percentage of bonds in each of those rows? Thanks if you do. :)
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Post by Ever Ready »

deleted, see update below
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Post by Chuck T »

Thanks Brad. Looks like a very good month. Hope the year ahead turns out as well.

Ever Ready: Nice work. My old eyes appreciate the large clear font.
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Post by Leif »

Thanks Every Ready. But it is a bit too big. It is forcing horizontal scrolling to read text for the whole thread on my screen (1366 x 768 resolution).
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Post by livesoft »

Let me remind everyone that one can change font size dynamically simply by using the combo keys: Ctrl-+ or Ctrl-- (on Windows) or by Command-+/- (on Macs). And 0 (zero) instead of + or - restores the font size to the default.
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Post by Ever Ready »

deleted, see update below
Last edited by Ever Ready on Tue May 03, 2011 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by schwarm »

Sorry if I missed the explanation, but why are the newsletter results x'ed out? Is Hot Hands a newsletter, or a specific timing scheme?
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Post by livesoft »

^ Those returns are unknown at the moment. I think the OP gets them from someone and then edits them in later.
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Post by madsinger »

schwarm wrote:Sorry if I missed the explanation, but why are the newsletter results x'ed out? Is Hot Hands a newsletter, or a specific timing scheme?
Hi schwarm,

As livesoft said, I watch the newsletter's website to see what the return numbers are. When I decided to post earlier today, they had not been posted. I just checked now, and they're still not up. The usually appear the first business day after the end of the month. I suspect I'll be able to update this chart sometime on Monday, May 2.

The "Hot Hands" fund is the best performing "diversified" Vanguard stock fund from one year bought and held through the next year. From 1999 through 2005, this approach had very impressively large returns. 2006-2009, the method lagged the market by a lot. This year, the HH fund is "Small Cap Growth Index" (the top returning fund for 2010), and it has done quite well YTD.

-Brad.
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Post by schwarm »

Thanks for the reply Brad (and livesoft).
I've read your monthly reports for a while and never knew what Hot Hands was. Seems like it might have the highest risk of the bunch, so maybe its not surprising it has the highest returns.
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Post by Random Musings »

Madsinger,

For the CAGR, it appears you start at the beginning of year, rather than looking at 3, 5, and 10-yr returns. Makes it hard to compare when utilizing other data sources.

And, to those Vanguard personnel who "read" this site - if you are so big about the "Vanguarding" philosophy, it would be nice to have 10-yr (and perhaps longer) annualized return looks. The 5-yr max is a little light for those who are looking at the bigger, long-term picture of utilizing passive/low-cost active funds.

RM
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Post by novastepp »

Madsinger, Coolio.
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Post by investor »

Brad here are newsletter numbers:
April, YTD %

Growth 3.3, 8.5
Cons Growth 3.1, 7.9
Income 2.9, 6.3
Growth Index 3.5, 10.4

investor ytd 8.14%. with 65/25/10 (S/B/C)
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Post by madsinger »

investor wrote:Brad here are newsletter numbers:
April, YTD %

Growth 3.3, 8.5
Cons Growth 3.1, 7.9
Income 2.9, 6.3
Growth Index 3.5, 10.4

investor ytd 8.14%. with 65/25/10 (S/B/C)
Thank you, investor!

The chart for April is now complete.

-Brad.
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Post by Leif »

livesoft wrote:Let me remind everyone that one can change font size dynamically simply by using the combo keys: Ctrl-+ or Ctrl-- (on Windows) or by Command-+/- (on Macs). And 0 (zero) instead of + or - restores the font size to the default.
So in order to read the text without scrolling I have to shrink the text so small that I can no longer read it?
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Post by Ever Ready »

My posts are jpeg images, so you cannot expand or shrink the font size. You can change the displayed size in IE on the View menu with Zoom commands.
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updated and downsized

Post by Ever Ready »

Image
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Post by Leif »

Ever Ready wrote:My posts are jpeg images, so you cannot expand or shrink the font size. You can change the displayed size in IE on the View menu with Zoom commands.
Yes, I understand that. I do appreciate the work you've done. My only point is that I hope those that post large graphics, particularly those large in the horizontal direction, are aware of unintended effect it has on reading the thread.

Thanks again.
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Post by livesoft »

Leif Eriksen wrote:
livesoft wrote:Let me remind everyone that one can change font size dynamically simply by using the combo keys: Ctrl-+ or Ctrl-- (on Windows) or by Command-+/- (on Macs). And 0 (zero) instead of + or - restores the font size to the default.
So in order to read the text without scrolling I have to shrink the text so small that I can no longer read it?
No, you have to buy a new computer. My computer has no problems with this stuff and it's a laptop.

BTW, the keys mentioned not only change the font size, but also the jpeg size.
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Post by Ever Ready »

Ctrl +/- are part of the zoom command I referenced.
They don't actually change the font size, but rather zoom the whole page, including images.
To change the font size only, use View, Text Size.
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Post by Leif »

livesoft wrote:
Leif Eriksen wrote:
livesoft wrote:Let me remind everyone that one can change font size dynamically simply by using the combo keys: Ctrl-+ or Ctrl-- (on Windows) or by Command-+/- (on Macs). And 0 (zero) instead of + or - restores the font size to the default.
So in order to read the text without scrolling I have to shrink the text so small that I can no longer read it?
No, you have to buy a new computer. My computer has no problems with this stuff and it's a laptop.

BTW, the keys mentioned not only change the font size, but also the jpeg size.
My computer is 2 years old. It is also a laptop. Its not only me, I had a thread on this and many people have the same complaint.

On the keys you mentioned, yes everything changes sizes. However, the text then becomes very small. Unfortunately, the browser text size adjustment seems to not work on this site.

All I'm asking for is the poster with a large image give it some consideration. So whenever I see a problem I'll mention it for educational purposes.
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Post by Ever Ready »

Leif Eriksen wrote:
On the keys you mentioned, yes everything changes sizes. However, the text then becomes very small. Unfortunately, the browser text size adjustment seems to not work on this site.
The text size commands work only if your board style is set to "Simple White", which uses a different font than the other styles.

Leif Eriksen wrote:
All I'm asking for is the poster with a large image give it some consideration. So whenever I see a problem I'll mention it for educational purposes.
Thank you for doing this, since I cannot see the problem on my monitor. I have limited the horizontal pixel count to 600 or less for the "updated and downsized" reply above. I hope this works out.
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Post by goggles »

Brad, thanks for continuing to post these. The numbers are always fascinating. I appreciate it.

Again, though (as always?), I am kicking myself for not just going with Wellesley or Wellington. That would be totally simple and give excellent returns. I guess I never learn. Maybe someday.
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Post by madsinger »

Random Musings wrote:Madsinger,

For the CAGR, it appears you start at the beginning of year, rather than looking at 3, 5, and 10-yr returns. Makes it hard to compare when utilizing other data sources.

And, to those Vanguard personnel who "read" this site - if you are so big about the "Vanguarding" philosophy, it would be nice to have 10-yr (and perhaps longer) annualized return looks. The 5-yr max is a little light for those who are looking at the bigger, long-term picture of utilizing passive/low-cost active funds.

RM
Hello RM,

I finally got my spreadsheets from the past five years together. I should be able to get real 1, 3 and 5 year returns computed. The reason I haven't don't this for a long time, was because I did not have monthly returns for the portfolios...I only had full year returns.

Probably be next week, I'll assemble a new spreadsheet which should make it easier for me to do this. I'll try to keep you up to date.

-Brad.
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Post by goggles »

Yes!!! More data!
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Post by Random Musings »

madsinger wrote:
Hello RM,

I finally got my spreadsheets from the past five years together. I should be able to get real 1, 3 and 5 year returns computed. The reason I haven't don't this for a long time, was because I did not have monthly returns for the portfolios...I only had full year returns.

Probably be next week, I'll assemble a new spreadsheet which should make it easier for me to do this. I'll try to keep you up to date.
Myself (and many others) do thank you for your efforts beyond the call.

Now, if we can just get Vanguard to provide a 10-yr look on portfolio returns. Because longer term looks are what I consider Vanguarding (and nice customer service).....

RM
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