madsinger monthly report (Feb 2011)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (Feb 2011)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2011 returns, 2011 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2006 and 2008 (12 years 2 months, 10 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 62/5/3/30 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                 CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                 Feb     YTD     since   since   since   since
                 2011    2011    2008    2006    2001    1999
Hot Hands        6.05%   7.16%  -6.16%   2.22%  10.01%  12.09%
Sheltered Sam    3.88%   5.44%   0.31%   4.87%   6.39%   6.89%
VFINX            3.41%   5.85%  -0.99%   3.27%   1.86%   2.36%
                  
s&d              2.98%   4.25%   2.27%   5.76%   6.78%   7.26%
Newsletter G-IND 3.55%   4.90%  -0.29%   4.96%   5.50%   4.78%
Newsletter G     2.55%   4.50%  -0.35%   5.02%   5.27%   8.72%
3 fund           2.65%   4.01%   0.99%   5.34%   4.80%   4.93%
LS G             2.86%   4.35%  -0.49%   4.07%   3.77%   4.03%
                  
coffeehouse      2.55%   3.69%   4.25%   5.96%   6.72%   6.90%
Wellington       2.30%   4.34%   3.03%   6.27%   6.54%   6.67%
STAR             2.27%   3.51%   2.50%   5.00%   5.45%   6.03%
Newsletter CG    2.36%   4.10%  -0.02%   4.52%   4.78%   6.67%
LS MG            2.27%   3.42%   1.14%   4.59%   4.37%   4.53%
                  
Wellesley        1.87%   2.53%   5.55%   6.65%   6.59%   6.41%
LS CG            1.58%   2.51%   2.26%   4.74%   4.60%   4.74%
Newsletter Inc   1.78%   3.00%   1.85%   3.87%   4.57%   4.31%
                  
madsinger        2.61%   3.43%   2.88%   5.88%      
Last edited by madsinger on Thu Mar 03, 2011 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by madsinger »

Another up month, and the portfolios look like they've had good half year gains in the first two months.

madsinger is lagging due to overweightings in Precious Metals (down about -2% YTD) and Emerging Markets (down -3.5% YTD).

Wishing you all well.

-Brad.
bschultheis
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Post by bschultheis »

Thanks for putting those numbers together Brad.

Bill
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Post by investor »

Thanks brad

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Post by Bongleur »

If you announce the link in _last_ months, then we could "watch" and not miss it.

And if your title contained the month, it would make search results more informative.

What is the relative expected volatility of these portfolios? Maybe list them in order.
Seeking Iso-Elasticity. | Tax Loss Harvesting is an Asset Class. | A well-planned presentation creates a sense of urgency. If the prospect fails to act now, he will risk a loss of some sort.
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Post by madsinger »

Bongleur wrote:If you announce the link in _last_ months, then we could "watch" and not miss it.

And if your title contained the month, it would make search results more informative.

What is the relative expected volatility of these portfolios? Maybe list them in order.
Hi Bongleur,

Thanks for the suggestions. I have added the month/year into the last couple of post subjects. Also, I added a "link" from the January post to the February post. I will try to remember to do this in the future.

I'm not quite sure how to measure the volatility. I suppose I could take the last five year's monthly returns and do a standard deviation? Report the biggest up month and the biggest down month? What do you suggest?

-Brad.
cosimdm
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question about category

Post by cosimdm »

What is "hot hands"?
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Post by Ever Ready »

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Re: question about category

Post by madsinger »

cosimdm wrote:What is "hot hands"?
The "Hot Hands" fund is not a portfolio, but rather a single fund selected each year. A newsletter writer had put forth the idea a "hot hand" fund does a pretty good job outperforming the market. The basic method is to select the one Vanguard "diversified stock" fund that had the best return for one year, and to buy it and hold it for the next year.

This idea had a very good run from 1999 through 2006. It lagged the "market" by quite a large amount from 2007-2009. Last year it did well again.

I do not support this way of selecting funds, but I post it here monthly for all to see...through its good times and bad (just like my own portfolio...)

-Brad.
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Post by Bongleur »

How does Hot Hands account for the taxes paid when swapping?

>
I'm not quite sure how to measure the volatility. I suppose I could take the last five year's monthly returns and do a standard deviation? Report the biggest up month and the biggest down month? What do you suggest?
>

I expect that some of the portfolios have an expected return and Std Dev put forth during discussions of it. Whoever "invented" them must have had something in mind.

For judging how they succeed in risk-aversion, you might pick some of the bear cycles.

Is it hard to calculate 5,10,20, and entire history of the market? Some of the funds might have much shorter histories that limit how far back you can go using actual data.
Seeking Iso-Elasticity. | Tax Loss Harvesting is an Asset Class. | A well-planned presentation creates a sense of urgency. If the prospect fails to act now, he will risk a loss of some sort.
cosimdm
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THANKS FOR THE DEFINITION

Post by cosimdm »

I have been wondering about this for some time. Thank you for publishing your monthly reports.
Bongleur
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Post by Bongleur »

There are several portfolios that have fairly comprehensive threads devoted to them. I'm reading Ferri's "Core Four" right now:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... c&start=50

What do you think about adding some of the other "famous name" portfolios along with the link to their main discussion thread?

Sometimes I wish that the BH forum had "subforums" dedicated to these, with stickys to the basic idea, and containing individual threads for details about how people tweak them.
Seeking Iso-Elasticity. | Tax Loss Harvesting is an Asset Class. | A well-planned presentation creates a sense of urgency. If the prospect fails to act now, he will risk a loss of some sort.
AQ
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Post by AQ »

thanks a lot for the monthly report...

just want to check it up from time to time. Is it a way to make it sticky in the sense we can find it quickly? say, put it in a blog, or something like that? Right now I was always just stumbled on it and missed it often..
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Post by livesoft »

You can make your own "sticky" by using your browser's bookmark feature.
Add this as a bookmark: http://www.lmgtfy.com/?q=%22madsinger+m ... eheads.org
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Post by AQ »

very cool. not sure how you did it, but thanks, livesoft.
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Post by madsinger »

March 2011 madsinger monthly report is out:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 1301931873

-Brad.
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