madsinger monthly report (Jan 2011)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2011 returns, 2011 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2006 and 2008 (12 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 62/5/3/30 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                 CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                 Jan     YTD     since   since   since   since
                 2011    2011    2008    2006    2001    1999
Hot Hands        1.05%   1.05%  -8.09%   1.08%   9.45%  11.63%
Sheltered Sam    1.50%   1.50%  -0.91%   4.17%   6.05%   6.60%
VFINX            2.36%   2.36%  -2.09%   2.65%   1.54%   2.09%

s&d              1.23%   1.23%   1.37%   5.25%   6.53%   7.05%
Newsletter G-IND 1.30%   1.30%  -1.42%   4.32%   5.18%   4.51%
Newsletter G     1.90%   1.90%  -1.17%   4.58%   5.05%   8.56%
3 fund           1.32%   1.32%   0.16%   4.89%   4.57%   4.74%
LS G             1.45%   1.45%  -1.41%   3.56%   3.52%   3.81%

coffeehouse      1.10%   1.10%   3.52%   5.53%   6.51%   6.72%
Wellington       1.99%   1.99%   2.35%   5.90%   6.36%   6.52%
STAR             1.21%   1.21%   1.82%   4.62%   5.26%   5.87%
Newsletter CG    1.70%   1.70%  -0.77%   4.12%   4.57%   6.51%
LS MG            1.12%   1.12%   0.43%   4.20%   4.18%   4.37%

Wellesley        0.65%   0.65%   5.08%   6.37%   6.45%   6.30%
LS CG            0.92%   0.92%   1.80%   4.50%   4.48%   4.64%
Newsletter Inc   1.20%   1.20%   1.32%   3.57%   4.43%   4.19%

madsinger        0.80%   0.80%   2.10%   5.45%      

[madsinger]

Welcome to 2011! It was a good month for the portfolios. US Large caps returns were in the 2% to 3% range, while small caps were typically less than 1%. Internationals had a big spread: Europe up 3.51%, emerging markets down -2.77% --- resulting in a Total International at 0.70%. Precious metals down almost -10% for January.

All of this explains madsinger trailing the pack --- tilts toward small, some international, and even the 3% allocation to PM took -0.30% off the return this month.

But, it was a good month overall.

I hope 2011 has started out well for you all.

-Brad.

[investor]

thanks Brad.

Wellington still looking good and still a good one stop shopping candidate for a retiree..

investor

[Snowjob]

-1.28% for January.

Off to a slow start, should have allocated 100% to the free lunch fund instead ! http://www.libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html

[Stevewc]

-1.28% for January.

Off to a slow start, should have allocated 100% to the free lunch fund instead ! http://www.libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html

Tell us about this free lunch.
Real question.
Steve

[Snowjob]

Steve,

Its just the name of my boglehead Hegefund (up about 7% so far). The name is a taunt to another boglehead who bet me lunch I couldn't continue my outperformance from last year -- Doing well so far but I dont have the juice to compete with an Nvidia on the upside from BAC and my CRM short didnt really pay off on the big earnings downgrade so I'm looking for about a 10% - 15% return this year only. Hopefully enough to beat the index but probably only good enough for a top 5 placement.

*Edit* Glad to see the interest in the name though!, I probbaly had a shot at winning the naming contest but there were a lot of good ones this year.

[Bongleur]

I'm confused. Is this monthy report meant to seriously inform us about possible allocation strategies, or is it just messing around with the "contest" portfolios?

[livesoft]

I use the portfolios here as benchmarks. If my portfolio isn't beating all the portfolios shown, I need to think about why. Did I trade too much? Did I trade too little? Did I let my allocation drift from where it should be? Did I forget to buy on a really bad day? Etc.

[madsinger]

I'm confused. Is this monthy report meant to seriously inform us about possible allocation strategies, or is it just messing around with the "contest" portfolios?

Hello Bongleur,

I started posting these monthly reports over 5 years ago, when there was an occasional post that compared some newsletter returns to the S&P 500 fund, which was followed by the mudslinging about "past returns", and "cherry picking", etc. So, I decided to start tracking a bunch of portfolios on a monthly basis, and just report the results. There are some newsletter portfolios, a handful of popular slice-and-dice portfolios, and some balanced funds.

The idea (for me) isn't to show how one method beats another, it is just to put some "real world" data on to the types of portfolios discussed here.

Also, by putting my portfolio returns in there, I can see how I am doing --- is my approach any good, or should I just buy an appropriate allocated fund and be done with it?

-Brad.

[Chuck T]

Brad

I appreciate your monthly post. It is a very useful benchmark of sorts. thanks and keep it coming. Chuck

[Beagler]

Brad, your monthly posts are illuminating and much-appreciated.

[AQ]

Thanks. The chances are that I'll be a regular reader of this... Last few days I was searching for this, but just found it now..

[madsinger]

February 2011 report is now posted:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=975510

-Brad.