madsinger monthly report

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2010 returns, 2010 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2007 (11 years 11 months, 9 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 62/5/3/30 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Nov     YTD      since   since   since   since
                  2010    2010     2007    2005    2001    1999
Hot Hands         0.70%   9.96%   -7.59%   2.43%   8.52%  10.87%
Sheltered Sam    -0.66%  10.00%   -2.07%   3.88%   5.23%   5.93%
VFINX             0.00%   7.73%   -2.53%   1.56%   0.67%   1.37%
                  
s&d              -1.10%   9.81%    0.27%   4.82%   5.91%   6.54%
Newsletter G-IND  0.99%  12.20%   -0.09%   4.48%   4.53%   3.96%
Newsletter G      0.09%   7.80%   -0.47%   4.46%   4.32%   7.98%
3 fund           -1.17%   7.12%    0.54%   4.37%   3.94%   4.21%
LS G             -0.56%   8.85%   -1.06%   2.99%   2.85%   3.26%
                  
coffeehouse      -0.39%  10.41%    2.16%   4.94%   6.10%   6.38%
Wellington       -1.02%   6.05%    2.25%   5.07%   5.77%   6.04%
STAR             -0.80%   7.17%    1.70%   4.28%   4.78%   5.48%
Newsletter CG     0.09%   6.90%   -0.12%   3.90%   3.99%   6.04%
LS MG            -0.47%   8.97%    0.87%   3.69%   3.72%   4.00%
                  
Wellesley        -0.92%   8.97%    4.85%   5.67%   6.33%   6.19%
LS CG            -0.43%   8.43%    2.29%   4.02%   4.20%   4.41%
Newsletter Inc   -0.55%   8.20%    0.98%   3.43%   4.09%   3.90%
                  
madsinger        -0.32%  11.30%    1.45%   5.15%      
Last edited by madsinger on Wed Dec 01, 2010 4:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Beagler
Posts: 3442
Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 7:39 pm

Post by Beagler »

Congratulations to Bill Schultheis and Coffeehouse.
“The only place where success come before work is in the dictionary.” Abraham Lincoln. This post does not provide advice for specific individual situations and should not be construed as doing so.
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Post by madsinger »

Not a terrible month. The big hit was from Europe --- VEURX down 8%, and most internationals down accordingly. Small US was up 2-3% for the month. Bonds down a little, big US flat.

The madsinger portfolio is being helped along significantly by the overweighting in US Small stocks up over 15% YTD and the "specialties" (REIT and PM) up over 20% YTD.

If today is any indication on the rest of December...

Wishing you all well.

-Brad.
bschultheis
Posts: 206
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:15 am

Post by bschultheis »

Hi Brad,

Thanks so much for posting those numbers, always interesting to see them at month end.

I was meeting with some folks yesterday, one of our first clients as RIA ten years ago now, they have been steadfast in maintaining a 60/40 portfolio over the years of bull and nasty bear markets, rebalancing when things got out of whack, with annuallized returns over this period north of 7.50%. If they are calling the past decade the lost decade, what is the next decade going to be like???

It is interesting to read all the projections of folks like grantham and co. who forecast future rates of return. One thing that is impossible to forecast, and probably have the greatest impact on returns over the next deecade, is emotions of investors. What companies earn and the div. they pay out ain't worth squat if the p/e is 8 or lower ten years out. And today's 10 year at 2.7%? Its gonna get real ugly out there.

As Nisiprius said in a post a while back, maybe a slice and dice portfolio got lucky this past decade. Who knows. For now I'm sticking with it.
Post Reply