madsinger monthly report

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2010 returns, 2010 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2007 (11 years 8 months, 9 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 64/5/3/28 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                 CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                 Sep     YTD     since   since   since   since
                 2010    2010    2007    2005    2001    1999
Hot Hands       11.60%   4.11%  -9.25%   1.53%   8.07%  10.52%
Sheltered Sam    8.82%   6.83%  -2.92%   3.47%   5.01%   5.75%
VFINX            8.91%   3.79%  -3.60%   0.95%   0.29%   1.07%
                  
s&d              7.28%   7.75%  -0.22%   4.62%   5.80%   6.46%
Newsletter G-IND 9.53%   6.90%  -1.37%   3.74%   4.09%   3.59%
Newsletter G     9.49%   3.80%  -1.49%   3.91%   3.99%   7.75%
3 fund           7.65%   5.14%   0.07%   4.16%   3.81%   4.10%
LS G             7.90%   6.12%  -1.77%   2.63%   2.63%   3.09%
                  
coffeehouse      5.12%   8.23%   1.72%   4.72%   5.99%   6.29%
Wellington       5.26%   4.91%   2.05%   5.02%   5.76%   6.03%
STAR             6.14%   5.44%   1.33%   4.11%   4.69%   5.42%
Newsletter CG    7.92%   3.50%  -0.99%   3.43%   3.71%   5.83%
LS MG            5.99%   6.91%   0.40%   3.46%   3.58%   3.88%
                  
Wellesley        2.70%   9.02%   5.08%   5.85%   6.44%   6.29%
LS CG            4.09%   7.02%   2.04%   3.90%   4.13%   4.36%
Newsletter Inc   4.93%   6.40%   0.58%   3.23%   3.98%   3.81%
                  
madsinger        7.26%   8.31%   0.78%   4.81%      
Last edited by madsinger on Sun Oct 03, 2010 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Post by madsinger »

As has been widely reported and observed, stocks did very well in September! YTD, small US (9% to 10%) is rather handily ahead of large US (3% to 5%). International is a spray (0% Europe, 5% Pacific, 10% Emerging markets). Bonds are very strong (total bond up almost 8% YTD). "Specialties" are doing well REITs up over 19%, PM up over 13%.

Because the madsinger portfolio tilts pretty heavily to small, and has a smattering of REITs and PM, it is doing quite well up over 8% YTD (and trailing only the Wellesley portfolio....) I'm getting pretty close to shifting my bond allocation up a percentage point or two up from 28%, as it's been over a year since I shifted that.

-Brad.
gkaplan
Posts: 7034
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:34 pm
Location: Portland, Oregon

Post by gkaplan »

As of 09/30/2010, the year-to-date return on my retirement portfolio is 8.19%. My one year rate of return is 12.38%. My three-year rate of return is –0.48%. My five-year return is 27.22%. .

My best performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard REIT Index Fund. My year-to-date rate of return is 19.44%. My one-year rate of return is 30.70%. My three-year rate of return is –1.19%. My five-year rate of return is 22.78%.

My poorest performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard European Stock Index Fund. My year-to-date rate of return is –0.00%. My one-year rate of return is –1.80%. (I have held this fund only since 06/30/2009.)

My retirement portfolio currently is divided among the following two investment vehicles:

69.79%: Vanguard Roth IRA (YTD 9.56%, 1-Year 15.31%, 3-year 0.21%, and 5-year returns 31.67%, respectively).

30.21%: Thrift Savings Plan (YTD 2.23%, 1-Year 3.01%, and 3-year returns –5.06%, respectively).

Target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 72/28 Equity/Fixed Income. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

12%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
12%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
12%: Domestic REIT
6%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe
6%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific
12%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging
12%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging
28%: Fixed Income

As of 09/30/2010, my equity/fixed Income allocation is split 70/30. Specifically, my current allocations (as of 09/30/2010) are as follows.

11.07%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VIVAX)
10.58%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VISVX)
11.91%: Domestic REIT (VGSIX)
5.42%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Europe (VEURX)
5.70%: Foreign Markets Large – Developed – Pacific (VPACX)
12.52%: Foreign Markets Small – Developed and Emerging (VSFVX)
12.59%: Foreign Markets Large – Emerging (VEIEX)
30.22%: Fixed Income (TSP G Fund)

(Totals do not add to 100% because of rounding.)


Submitted for your approval.
Gordon
Beagler
Posts: 3442
Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 7:39 pm

Post by Beagler »

Coffeehouse (a version of S&D) and Wellesley -- continuing their domination. Nice going, Mr. Schultheis and Wellington Management.
“The only place where success come before work is in the dictionary.” Abraham Lincoln. This post does not provide advice for specific individual situations and should not be construed as doing so.
livesoft
Posts: 75914
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Post by livesoft »

Thanks for posting.

@Gordon, our portfolio (all of it including minor amounts in money markets) has a similar asset allocation and a similar return. Your post helps confirm that I haven't done any damage by rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting this year.
investor
Posts: 1010
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:50 pm

Post by investor »

Madsinger,
here are data points: newsletter

Sept, YTD

Growth 9.5%, 3.8%
Cons Growth 7.9%,3.5%
Income 5.0%, 6.4%
Growth Index 9.5% 6.9%

investor
bschultheis
Posts: 206
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:15 am

Post by bschultheis »

Go Coffeehouse~!

Thanks Beagler

Thanks Brad
Beagler
Posts: 3442
Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 7:39 pm

Post by Beagler »

madsinger wrote:As has been widely reported and observed, stocks did very well in September! YTD, small US (9% to 10%) is rather handily ahead of large US (3% to 5%). International is a spray (0% Europe, 5% Pacific, 10% Emerging markets). Bonds are very strong (total bond up almost 8% YTD). "Specialties" are doing well REITs up over 19%, PM up over 13%.

Because the madsinger portfolio tilts pretty heavily to small, and has a smattering of REITs and PM, it is doing quite well up over 8% YTD (and trailing only the Wellesley portfolio....) I'm getting pretty close to shifting my bond allocation up a percentage point or two up from 28%, as it's been over a year since I shifted that.

-Brad.
First, thanks for all the effort that goes into compiling these comparisons.

As you point out, the outperformance of smaller-cap stocks (not necessarily small-caps -- I've included Mel's Unloved Mid-caps for comparison) continues YTD.

Image
“The only place where success come before work is in the dictionary.” Abraham Lincoln. This post does not provide advice for specific individual situations and should not be construed as doing so.
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Post by madsinger »

investor wrote:Madsinger,
here are data points: newsletter

Sept, YTD

Growth 9.5%, 3.8%
Cons Growth 7.9%,3.5%
Income 5.0%, 6.4%
Growth Index 9.5% 6.9%

investor
Thank you, investor!

I have updated the chart accordingly. The Newsletter portfolios had a very strong September, even relative to their peers.

-Brad.
investor
Posts: 1010
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:50 pm

Post by investor »

You are welcome Brad....
keep up the posting.

I still like the simple 50/50 Wellington/ Wellesley. At least for retirees.
drink beer, wine and go fishing..forget the market.

investor :roll: :P :!:
User avatar
Mel Lindauer
Moderator
Posts: 31618
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 8:49 pm
Location: Daytona Beach Shores, Florida
Contact:

Post by Mel Lindauer »

Beagler wrote:
madsinger wrote:As has been widely reported and observed, stocks did very well in September! YTD, small US (9% to 10%) is rather handily ahead of large US (3% to 5%). International is a spray (0% Europe, 5% Pacific, 10% Emerging markets). Bonds are very strong (total bond up almost 8% YTD). "Specialties" are doing well REITs up over 19%, PM up over 13%.

Because the madsinger portfolio tilts pretty heavily to small, and has a smattering of REITs and PM, it is doing quite well up over 8% YTD (and trailing only the Wellesley portfolio....) I'm getting pretty close to shifting my bond allocation up a percentage point or two up from 28%, as it's been over a year since I shifted that.

-Brad.
First, thanks for all the effort that goes into compiling these comparisons.

As you point out, the outperformance of smaller-cap stocks (not necessarily small-caps -- I've included Mel's Unloved Mid-caps for comparison) continues YTD.

Image
How long do Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps have to outperform both large and small caps to finally get some respect? :D
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Post by madsinger »

madsinger rebalancing.

I had stated earlier in this thread that I was preparing to shift my bond percentage up a couple of points (from 28% to 30%) in keeping with my plan. As of yesterday, my bonds had drifted down to a little over 26% of my portfolio.

So...with all of the bravado of a market timing maven (given that stocks seem to be having a big day), today I bumped my bonds up closer to 30% by selling some VGPMX, VINEX, and VGSIX, which were the funds in my portfolio that were the most over their targets.

I don't expect anyone to be terribly interested in this, I just want to keep my shifts as "public" as possible. (It keeps me from coming back later crowing about my market timing prowess!)

I hope you're all happy with your allocations!

-Brad.
livesoft
Posts: 75914
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Post by livesoft »

Mel Lindauer wrote:How long do Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps have to outperform both large and small caps to finally get some respect? :D
Do you mind telling us: for your portfolio assets: what is the sum of the numbers in a Morningstar X-ray analysis in the mid-cap row? Or just give us the 3 numbers since we can add them up ourselves. :)

For example, my numbers are 11-10-09. This compares with 06-07-07 in a total US stock market index fund. Can I say that I respect mid-caps even though I do not specifically have a mid-cap fund?

Thanks!
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Post by madsinger »

livesoft wrote:
Mel Lindauer wrote:How long do Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps have to outperform both large and small caps to finally get some respect? :D
Do you mind telling us: for your portfolio assets: what is the sum of the numbers in a Morningstar X-ray analysis in the mid-cap row? Or just give us the 3 numbers since we can add them up ourselves. :)

For example, my numbers are 11-10-09. This compares with 06-07-07 in a total US stock market index fund. Can I say that I respect mid-caps even though I do not specifically have a mid-cap fund?

Thanks!
Hi livesoft,

I've never run the Morningstar X-ray tool. I entered my numbers and got:

Code: Select all

Cash     2%
US      51%
Foreign 21%
Bonds   25%

18  18  15
 8   9   6
 9  10   7
To be honest, I'm a little surprised that I don't look more "value-y". I know that I heavily weight small, so I'm not too surprised to see that I'm basically half "large" and half "small and mid".

Given that you're at 30% mid, instead of 20% for a Total Stock portfolio, I'd say you more than "respect" them --- I might suggest that you have a lingering fondness for them! (but, let's not get carried away).

-Brad.
Post Reply