madsinger monthly report

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2010 returns, 2010 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2007 (11 years 8 months, 9 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 64/5/3/28 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Aug      YTD      since   since   since   since
                  2010     2010     2007    2005    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -6.20%   -6.71%  -12.12%  -0.40%   6.92%   9.56%
Sheltered Sam    -4.06%   -1.83%   -5.19%   1.99%   4.14%   5.03%
VFINX            -4.53%   -4.70%   -5.90%  -0.55%  -0.59%   0.34%
                  
s&d              -2.94%    0.43%   -2.12%   3.40%   5.09%   5.87%
Newsletter G-IND -4.03%   -2.40%   -3.82%   2.14%   3.15%   2.81%
Newsletter G     -4.53%   -5.20%   -3.93%   2.32%   3.06%   6.97%
3 fund           -2.99%   -2.33%   -1.92%   2.88%   3.05%   3.48%
LS G             -3.24%   -1.65%   -3.83%   1.30%   1.85%   2.44%
                  
coffeehouse      -2.02%    2.96%    0.38%   3.87%   5.50%   5.89%
Wellington       -2.25%   -0.33%    0.68%   4.15%   5.25%   5.61%
STAR             -2.26%   -0.66%   -0.27%   3.08%   4.09%   4.92%
LS MG            -2.11%    0.87%   -1.17%   2.45%   2.99%   3.40%
Newsletter CG    -3.81%   -4.10%   -3.05%   2.10%   2.93%   5.19%
                  
Wellesley         0.86%    6.15%    4.44%   5.44%   6.21%   6.09%
LS CG            -1.09%    2.81%    0.98%   3.23%   3.74%   4.03%
Newsletter Inc   -1.36%    1.40%   -0.72%   2.40%   3.50%   3.41%
                  
madsinger        -3.07%    0.98%   -1.11%   3.59%      

[madsinger]

Not too many surprises here. For August: stocks bad, bonds good. REITs are still up 15.88% YTD, so if you're portfolio's holding them, you're looking better than if you're not.

Wishing you all well.

-Brad.

[Scott S]

What's the "Hot Hands" portfolio? Is that where you rebalance into whatever is doing well? :lol:

- Scott

[Chuck T]

Thanks Brad. Looks like over the last 10 years you would have been smart to hold Wellesley (approx 37/63). Wish I had been that smart.

[Chuck T]

What's the "Hot Hands" portfolio? Is that where you rebalance into whatever is doing well? :lol:

- Scott

I believe the "Hot Hands"portfolio is one of the Vanguard actively managed fund portfolios recommended by Dan Weiner. Dan publishes a newsletter telling subscribers how to get rich with Vanguard actively managed funds.

At least, I think that is correct. It is heavily into equities. Brad can clarify.

[gkaplan]

See you next month, Brad.

[madsinger]

What's the "Hot Hands" portfolio? Is that where you rebalance into whatever is doing well? :lol:

- Scott

The "Hot Hands" fund is not a "portfolio". Dan Wiener, who publishes a newsletter about Vanguard funds, observed that the highest returning "diversified" (non sector) fund (not necessarily active...) seemed to do pretty well the "next" year. Someone had been showing that investing in the "Hot Hands" fund each year produced very high returns. I include it in these charts to be able to track this (and all of these portfolios) "going forward". As you can see from the chart, the "Hot Hands" fund performed very, very well from 1999-2005. Since 2005, it has lost money (although not quite as much as the S&P 500 fund), and since 2007, it has lost over 12% per year (on average).

I do not know if I have chosen the "official" Hot Hands fund for 2010, but the best returning diversified Vanguard fund in 2009 (by far!) was Capital Value (which returned over 80% last year). That is the fund I am tracking for 2010.

My goal with these monthly reports is to track an established set of portfolios...not as backward "data mining" ("gee...if you had just invested everything in Precious Metals 10 years ago, you'd have returned xxx% on your money..."), but rather, just to see how they really do. Also, my actual portfolio is tracked along side all of the others, so I can see how I'm doing. I'm pretty happy...with the possible exception of having Wellesley gloating in my face every month!

-Brad.

[paulob]

Hi Brad,
Its been a tough year so far.
My IRA is down 1.5% and my 401-k is down a whopping 9%!

[cinghiale]

Brad,

I've never written to say "thanks" before, but here it is.

Since I have all of my IRA in Wellesley Income (and some 401k funds in VFINX) , I always look forward to seeing your reports and checking out how Wellesley is doing compared to some other benchmark and high-profile portfolios.

As you said, the last decade has favored bonds. No surprise there. Still, your reports continue to confirm the wisdom of a balanced portfolio.

[investor]

Brad,

I also want to say thanks. Wellington and Wellesley are my favorite funds and for a retiree, I think holding them in a 50/50 mix is a good long term decision.

investor

[bschultheis]

Thanks Brad, I appreciate your work.

Go Coffeehouse! See you in Philly.

Bill