madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2010 returns, 2010 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2007 (11 years 5 months, 9 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 64/5/3/28 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  May     YTD      since   since   since   since
                  2010    2010     2007    2005    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -9.07%  -1.30%  -11.50%   0.63%   7.75%  10.33%
Sheltered Sam    -8.25%  -0.22%   -5.11%   2.39%   4.43%   5.29%
VFINX            -8.00%  -1.54%   -5.42%   0.03%  -0.26%   0.63%
                  
s&d              -6.79%   0.03%   -2.39%   3.48%   5.18%   5.96%
Newsletter G     -7.63%  -1.90%   -3.25%   3.08%   3.52%   7.45%
Newsletter G-IND -7.40%   0.10%   -3.38%   2.72%   3.51%   3.10%
3 fund           -7.05%  -2.74%   -2.18%   2.93%   3.09%   3.52%
LS G             -6.61%  -1.02%   -3.92%   1.48%   1.97%   2.55%
                  
coffeehouse      -4.54%   2.76%    0.35%   4.02%   5.63%   6.00%
Wellington       -5.41%  -1.21%    0.47%   4.18%   5.29%   5.65%
STAR             -5.50%  -1.08%   -0.41%   3.14%   4.15%   4.99%
Newsletter CG    -6.46%  -1.50%   -2.50%   2.70%   3.30%   5.55%
LS MG            -4.62%   0.40%   -1.39%   2.48%   3.02%   3.43%
                  
Wellesley        -2.70%   1.50%    3.41%   4.83%   5.87%   5.81%
LS CG            -2.98%   1.47%    0.66%   3.13%   3.69%   4.00%
Newsletter Inc   -4.20%   0.30%   -1.09%   2.31%   3.48%   3.39%
                  
madsinger        -5.67%   1.91%   -0.93%   3.94%      

Last edited by madsinger on Tue Jun 01, 2010 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by madsinger »

Well...that was volatile!

No real surprises in the report this month. Holding more bonds (which were up for the month) was better than less bonds. International got hit with a double digit loss (as measured by Total International). Domestic stocks were down about -8% across the board.

REITs are still up double digits YTD, so portfolios holding a healthy dose of those look comparatively pretty good (see Coffeehouse).

I hope you all were able to find that you are comfortable with your portfolio. It took a little stress test this past month.

-Brad.
MariaT
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Post by MariaT »

Hi Brad:

As always, thank you for your report. I always look forward to it every month.

All the best,
Maria
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BigD53
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Post by BigD53 »

Wellesley continues to amaze, and continues be a great active fund option for the conservative investor. :D

It will be interesting to see how Wellesley performs when interest rates start to rise.
Last edited by BigD53 on Tue Jun 01, 2010 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Mel Lindauer
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Post by Mel Lindauer »

Doesn't look like the newsletter subscribers are much for their money.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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Post by Petrocelli »

Mel Lindauer wrote:Doesn't look like the newsletter subscribers are much for their money.
Do you really want to discuss Dan Wiener? Let me know.
Petrocelli (not the real Rico, but just a fan)
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Post by Beagler »

Mel Lindauer wrote:Doesn't look like the newsletter subscribers are much for their money.
Interesting choice of syntax.
“The only place where success come before work is in the dictionary.” Abraham Lincoln. This post does not provide advice for specific individual situations and should not be construed as doing so.
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Robert T
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Post by Robert T »

.
Thanks Brad.

FWIW - YTD performance (according to M*) of the portfolios that I earlier set up in M* http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=46446

Code: Select all

To end May (according to M*) 
                                   YTD 

ASSET ALLOCATION 
...ETF                           -1.26
...DFA TM                        -0.62 
...Total Market                  -4.95 

SECURITY SELECTION 
...Fairholme                      7.08 
...Cumming-Ackman-Lampert         7.15
...Dodge and Cox                 -3.61  

MARKET TIMING 
...10 month Moving Average       -1.74 
...Inverted Yield Curve          -0.93  
...GMO Valuation                 -4.51  

All portfolios have a long-term expected 
average bond allocation of 20 to 25 percent. 

.
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Post by madsinger »

Thanks, Maria T, for the comment.

Robert T, thanks for posting your portfolios here as well. It's good to see a bunch of 80/20 portfolios in one place. It will be interesting to see how all of these portfolios perform going forward --- especially when we get more months (years?) of data to observe.

BigD53 --- yes, as I continue to track all of these portfolios, it occurs to me that a conservative investor could really do very well by simply buying Wellesley and then getting on with the rest of their life! (I should keep this in mind in a few years...)

(It's always a good day when I see Petrocelli posting!)

-Brad.
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Post by Petrocelli »

madsinger wrote:Thanks, Maria T, for the comment.

(It's always a good day when I see Petrocelli posting!)

-Brad.
Thank you. And it would have been particularly entertaining if I had turned this in to a Dan Wiener thread, but No one would take the bait.

Thanks for the updates!
Petrocelli (not the real Rico, but just a fan)
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tdhg566
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Post by tdhg566 »

madsinger wrote:...it occurs to me that a conservative investor could really do very well by simply buying Wellesley and then getting on with the rest of their life! (I should keep this in mind in a few years...)

-Brad.
I too have been watching Wellesley. But your strategy intrigues me. ?? :?: why is it a good strategy to use Wellesley in a few years but not now??? Since 2001 it's beat slice & dice (which probably best describes me), and since 1999 it was only behind 15 basis points.
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pjstack
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Post by pjstack »

Petrocelli wrote:
madsinger wrote:Thanks, Maria T, for the comment.

(It's always a good day when I see Petrocelli posting!)

-Brad.
Thank you. And it would have been particularly entertaining if I had turned this in to a Dan Wiener thread, but No one would take the bait.

Thanks for the updates!
:lol: :lol: That's because Adrian Nenu doesn't post here any more! You could always get him to come roaring out of his cave shouting, "Fishwrap!".

:lol:
pjstack
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