madsinger monthly report

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2010 returns, 2010 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2007 (11 years 5 months, 9 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 64/5/3/28 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  May     YTD      since   since   since   since
                  2010    2010     2007    2005    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -9.07%  -1.30%  -11.50%   0.63%   7.75%  10.33%
Sheltered Sam    -8.25%  -0.22%   -5.11%   2.39%   4.43%   5.29%
VFINX            -8.00%  -1.54%   -5.42%   0.03%  -0.26%   0.63%
                  
s&d              -6.79%   0.03%   -2.39%   3.48%   5.18%   5.96%
Newsletter G     -7.63%  -1.90%   -3.25%   3.08%   3.52%   7.45%
Newsletter G-IND -7.40%   0.10%   -3.38%   2.72%   3.51%   3.10%
3 fund           -7.05%  -2.74%   -2.18%   2.93%   3.09%   3.52%
LS G             -6.61%  -1.02%   -3.92%   1.48%   1.97%   2.55%
                  
coffeehouse      -4.54%   2.76%    0.35%   4.02%   5.63%   6.00%
Wellington       -5.41%  -1.21%    0.47%   4.18%   5.29%   5.65%
STAR             -5.50%  -1.08%   -0.41%   3.14%   4.15%   4.99%
Newsletter CG    -6.46%  -1.50%   -2.50%   2.70%   3.30%   5.55%
LS MG            -4.62%   0.40%   -1.39%   2.48%   3.02%   3.43%
                  
Wellesley        -2.70%   1.50%    3.41%   4.83%   5.87%   5.81%
LS CG            -2.98%   1.47%    0.66%   3.13%   3.69%   4.00%
Newsletter Inc   -4.20%   0.30%   -1.09%   2.31%   3.48%   3.39%
                  
madsinger        -5.67%   1.91%   -0.93%   3.94%      

[madsinger]

Well...that was volatile!

No real surprises in the report this month. Holding more bonds (which were up for the month) was better than less bonds. International got hit with a double digit loss (as measured by Total International). Domestic stocks were down about -8% across the board.

REITs are still up double digits YTD, so portfolios holding a healthy dose of those look comparatively pretty good (see Coffeehouse).

I hope you all were able to find that you are comfortable with your portfolio. It took a little stress test this past month.

-Brad.

[MariaT]

Hi Brad:

As always, thank you for your report. I always look forward to it every month.

All the best,
Maria

[BigD53]

Wellesley continues to amaze, and continues be a great active fund option for the conservative investor.

It will be interesting to see how Wellesley performs when interest rates start to rise.

[Mel Lindauer]

Doesn't look like the newsletter subscribers are much for their money.

[Petrocelli]

Doesn't look like the newsletter subscribers are much for their money.

Do you really want to discuss Dan Wiener? Let me know.

[Beagler]

Doesn't look like the newsletter subscribers are much for their money.

Interesting choice of syntax.

[Robert T]

.
Thanks Brad.

FWIW - YTD performance (according to M*) of the portfolios that I earlier set up in M* http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=46446

Code: Select all

To end May (according to M*) 
                                   YTD 

ASSET ALLOCATION 
...ETF                           -1.26
...DFA TM                        -0.62 
...Total Market                  -4.95 

SECURITY SELECTION 
...Fairholme                      7.08 
...Cumming-Ackman-Lampert         7.15
...Dodge and Cox                 -3.61  

MARKET TIMING 
...10 month Moving Average       -1.74 
...Inverted Yield Curve          -0.93  
...GMO Valuation                 -4.51  

All portfolios have a long-term expected 
average bond allocation of 20 to 25 percent. 

.

[madsinger]

Thanks, Maria T, for the comment.

Robert T, thanks for posting your portfolios here as well. It's good to see a bunch of 80/20 portfolios in one place. It will be interesting to see how all of these portfolios perform going forward --- especially when we get more months (years?) of data to observe.

BigD53 --- yes, as I continue to track all of these portfolios, it occurs to me that a conservative investor could really do very well by simply buying Wellesley and then getting on with the rest of their life! (I should keep this in mind in a few years...)

(It's always a good day when I see Petrocelli posting!)

-Brad.

[Petrocelli]

Thanks, Maria T, for the comment.

(It's always a good day when I see Petrocelli posting!)

-Brad.

Thank you. And it would have been particularly entertaining if I had turned this in to a Dan Wiener thread, but No one would take the bait.

Thanks for the updates!

[tdhg566]

...it occurs to me that a conservative investor could really do very well by simply buying Wellesley and then getting on with the rest of their life! (I should keep this in mind in a few years...)

-Brad.

I too have been watching Wellesley. But your strategy intrigues me. ?? why is it a good strategy to use Wellesley in a few years but not now??? Since 2001 it's beat slice & dice (which probably best describes me), and since 1999 it was only behind 15 basis points.

[pjstack]

Thanks, Maria T, for the comment.

(It's always a good day when I see Petrocelli posting!)

-Brad.

Thank you. And it would have been particularly entertaining if I had turned this in to a Dan Wiener thread, but No one would take the bait.

Thanks for the updates!

:lol: :lol: That's because Adrian Nenu doesn't post here any more! You could always get him to come roaring out of his cave shouting, "Fishwrap!".

:lol: