madsinger monthly report

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2010 returns, 2010 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2007 (11 years 2 months, 9 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 64/5/3/28 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Feb     YTD      since   since   since   since
                  2010    2010     2007    2005    2001    1999
Hot Hands         3.12%   0.11%  -11.96%   0.93%   8.14%  10.71%
Sheltered Sam     3.01%  -0.90%   -5.71%   2.37%   4.48%   5.35%
VFINX             3.09%  -0.62%   -5.56%   0.21%  -0.16%   0.73%
                  
s&d               2.17%  -0.73%   -2.81%   3.50%   5.24%   6.03%
Newsletter G      2.68%  -0.50%   -3.06%   3.51%   3.77%   7.76%
Newsletter G-IND  3.63%  -0.10%   -3.70%   2.81%   3.58%   3.16%
3 fund            1.78%  -1.23%   -1.88%   3.38%   3.35%   3.74%
LS G              2.26%  -0.56%   -4.08%   1.64%   2.07%   2.65%
                  
Wellington        1.44%  -0.28%    0.81%   4.57%   5.55%   5.87%
coffeehouse       2.19%   0.50%   -0.33%   3.77%   5.53%   5.93%
STAR              1.69%  -0.34%   -0.21%   3.45%   4.35%   5.17%
Newsletter CG     2.47%  -0.30%   -2.33%   3.07%   3.53%   5.79%
LS MG             1.84%   0.06%   -1.60%   2.53%   3.07%   3.48%
                  
Wellesley         1.08%   0.79%    3.45%   4.93%   5.96%   5.88%
LS CG             1.40%   0.73%    0.48%   3.14%   3.71%   4.02%
Newsletter Inc    1.41%   0.50%   -1.11%   2.46%   3.60%   3.49%
                  
madsinger         2.17%  -0.26%   -1.67%   3.70%      
User avatar
Bounca
Posts: 896
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 7:48 am

Post by Bounca »

Thanks for post, as always.

Checking in…..

IRA (approx 70/30 AA)
<b>Month 2.20 %
YTD -0.31 %</b>
Contains:
20% BND
5% BSV
5% TIP
5% WTMIX (Westcore Microcap)
5% DLS
10% VEA
5% VWO
5% VNQ
5% VBR
35% FSTMX (Fidelity Spartan Total Market)
----------------------------
ROTH (approx 75/25 AA)
<b>Month 2.16 %
YTD -0.19 %</b>
Contains:
Roughly 60% EXHAX (Manning and Napier Pro Blend Max)
Roughly 40% EXBAX (Manning and Napier Pro Blend Moderate)
User avatar
paulob
Posts: 1408
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:54 am

Post by paulob »

Hi Brad,
Thanks so much for updating us once again this year!
Paul
Levett
Posts: 4177
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 2:10 pm
Location: upper Midwest

Post by Levett »

Thanks, Brad.

I see that Wellesley continues to putter along its merry way. :D

Bob U.
There are some things that count that can't be counted, and some things that can be counted that don't count.
User avatar
sperry8
Posts: 2384
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:25 pm
Location: Miami FL

Post by sperry8 »

What is the hot hands fund for 2010?
BH contests: 2020 #253 of 664 | 19 #233 of 645 | 18 #150 of 493 | 17 #516 of 647 | 16 #121 of 610 | 15 #18 of 552 | 14 #225 of 503 | 13 #383 of 433 | 12 #366 of 410 | 11 #113 of 369 | 10 #53 of 282
User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 30417
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Hot Hands

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Hi Brad:

Thank you for the update.

It is informative to see that "Hot Hands" has by far the best and worst figures of all the portfolios.

If you had bought the "Hot Hands" portfolio in 2005 after its superior performance, you would have lost -11.96%/year through February 2010.

Lesson learned: Chasing top performing funds is dangerous.
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Tue Mar 02, 2010 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
User avatar
Bounca
Posts: 896
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 7:48 am

Post by Bounca »

sperry8 wrote:What is the hot hands fund for 2010?
Don't know for certain but my guess would be VEIEX. Emerging markets fund.
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Post by madsinger »

sperry8 wrote:What is the hot hands fund for 2010?
I do not know what has been announced as the "official" hot hands fund for 2010. I just took the best performing "general" Vanguard Fund last year. Scanning this list from the Vanguard site:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... %3AyrlyTBI

the #1 performer last year was Capital Value Fund (up 81.46%), and that is what I am using for 2010. Other big performers were Precious Metals (up 76.46% --- but not a "general" fund) and Emerging Market (up 75.98% --- and I don't know if it would be considered "general" or "sector").

If later in the year, someone gives me "official" information that the Hot Hand fund was a different fund, I'll update the chart accordingly.

-Brad.
User avatar
Topic Author
madsinger
Posts: 984
Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Re: Hot Hands

Post by madsinger »

Taylor Larimore wrote:It is informative to see that "Hot Hands" has by far the best and worst figures of all the portfolios.
Hi Taylor,

This is kind of the purpose of this exercise for me. I wanted to "forward test" portfolios. It's easy to point to a fund or portfolios "past" returns and say which one was best (back testing). By picking some existing portfolios and then monitoring their progress going forward, we can all see the ups and downs of these different strategies through the same market cycles that we're all experiencing with our own portfolios (which is why I've also thrown my own portfolio into the mix).

After beating "the market" for 8 straight years from 1999-2006, one might reach the conclusion that the Hot Hands fund approach was a risk free approach for beating the market. The past three years have shown that it's not always a way to "win". Hopefully, this exercise has shown some light on the situation.

-Brad.
bschultheis
Posts: 206
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:15 am

Post by bschultheis »

HI Brad, thanks so much for producing these numbers, I sure appreciate it.

Bill
User avatar
sperry8
Posts: 2384
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:25 pm
Location: Miami FL

Post by sperry8 »

madsinger wrote:
sperry8 wrote:What is the hot hands fund for 2010?
I do not know what has been announced as the "official" hot hands fund for 2010. I just took the best performing "general" Vanguard Fund last year. Scanning this list from the Vanguard site:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... %3AyrlyTBI

the #1 performer last year was Capital Value Fund (up 81.46%), and that is what I am using for 2010. Other big performers were Precious Metals (up 76.46% --- but not a "general" fund) and Emerging Market (up 75.98% --- and I don't know if it would be considered "general" or "sector").

If later in the year, someone gives me "official" information that the Hot Hand fund was a different fund, I'll update the chart accordingly.

-Brad.
I am a former Weiner newsletter subscriber. I remember that he wouldn't allow Precious Metals & Mining to be a HH fund. Also, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't allow EM to be one either (if I recall correctly he wouldnt allow sector funds - so no EM, no Healthcare, etc.). Makes sense that capital value would work - so it's prob a good guess.
BH contests: 2020 #253 of 664 | 19 #233 of 645 | 18 #150 of 493 | 17 #516 of 647 | 16 #121 of 610 | 15 #18 of 552 | 14 #225 of 503 | 13 #383 of 433 | 12 #366 of 410 | 11 #113 of 369 | 10 #53 of 282
User avatar
etc06
Posts: 72
Joined: Tue Apr 24, 2007 6:56 pm

Post by etc06 »

Thanks for keeping us updated on the various portfolios.

I know I check for your post every month and compare my portfolio. Not that I'm a performance chaser, more of a check for red flags if I have a larger loss (or gain) than portfolios with similar allocations.
Post Reply