madsinger monthly report

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2010 returns, 2010 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2007 (11 years 1 month, 9 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 64/5/3/28 stock/REIT/PM/bond.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Jan     YTD      since   since   since   since
                  2010    2009     2007    2005    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -2.92%  -2.92%  -13.13%   0.34%   7.85%  10.49%
Sheltered Sam    -3.79%  -3.79%   -6.76%   1.81%   4.18%   5.11%
VFINX            -3.60%  -3.60%   -6.63%  -0.39%  -0.50%   0.46%
                  
s&d              -2.83%  -2.83%   -3.55%   3.12%   5.04%   5.87%
Newsletter G     -3.10%  -3.10%   -3.97%   3.03%   3.51%   7.57%
Newsletter G-IND -3.60%  -3.60%   -4.91%   2.14%   3.21%   2.85%
3 fund           -2.96%  -2.96%   -2.49%   3.08%   3.18%   3.60%
LS G             -2.76%  -2.76%   -4.88%   1.22%   1.84%   2.46%
                  
Wellington       -1.70%  -1.70%    0.36%   4.35%   5.43%   5.78%
coffeehouse      -1.66%  -1.66%   -1.03%   3.39%   5.33%   5.77%
STAR             -2.00%  -2.00%   -0.76%   3.16%   4.20%   5.06%
Newsletter CG    -2.70%  -2.70%   -3.16%   2.63%   3.28%   5.60%
LS MG            -1.75%  -1.75%   -2.23%   2.20%   2.89%   3.33%
                  
Wellesley        -0.29%  -0.29%    3.19%   4.79%   5.89%   5.82%
LS CG            -0.66%  -0.66%    0.04%   2.91%   3.59%   3.92%
Newsletter Inc   -0.90%  -0.90%   -1.59%   2.22%   3.47%   3.38%
                  
madsinger        -2.38%  -2.38%   -2.40%   3.32%      

[madsinger]

No big surprises here. On Jan 14, my portfolio was up 2.81%...by the end of the month, down -2.38%. Roughly in line with everything else. I beat the 80/20 portfolios, and lagged the 60/40 portfolios.

A note about the Coffeehouse portfolio: Bill Schultheis has changed his "historical returns" to use the Total Bond Fund instead of the Intermediate Index fund. He did this, because some other people were using Total Bond Fund to make public comparisons. Bill chose to make his "past" agree with theirs.

INTEGRITY ALERT! INTEGRITY ALERT! INTEGRITY ALERT!

When Bill did this, he actually lowered the Coffeehouse Portfolio's past returns, because the Total Bond Fund underperformed the Intermediate Bond Index fund. (by 0.04% per year over the past 10 years). The point is, he did not "change the past" to improve his returns, but rather to make them align with other people's comparisons. He does not seem to be bothered by this slight weakening of returns because the message is still the same.

So, if those of you keeping score at home notice a difference in the Coffeehouse returns from the past reports, this is why.

Some pretty big hits this month: PM down over -8%, REITS over -5%, stocks over -3%.

Wishing you all a good 2010.

-Brad.

[paulob]

Thanks for posting Brad.

401-k was down 5.8% (real estate)
IRA down 0.9%
son's IRA down 3.9%

Hmm, I'm sensing a pattern here.......

[schwarm]

probably already been posted, but "Hot Hands" looked pretty hot for the first half of the last decade, since then, not so much.

[MitchL]

Thank you Brad. I use your report to benchmark my returns.

For myself:
Domestic 39%
Foreign 25%
REIT 7%
Bonds 29%

YTD -2.33%

[Robert T]

.
Thanks Brad.

FWIW - YTD performance of the portfolios that I earlier set up in M* http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=46446

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                                YTD 
                            [to 1/31/10]
ASSET ALLOCATION
...ETF                         -2.43
...DFA                         -2.75 
...Market                      -3.52

SECURITY SELECTION
...Fairholme                   +3.32
...Cumming-Ackman-Lampert      +4.06 
...Dodge and Cox               -2.04 

MARKET TIMING
...GMO Valuation               -3.69  
...16 month Moving Average     -3.65
...Inverted Yield Curve        -2.74

Robert
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