madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2009 returns, 2009 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2006 (10 years 9 months, 8 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Sep     YTD      since   since   since   since
                  2009    2009     2006    2004    2001    1999
Hot Hands         3.42%   13.35%  -5.47%   4.47%   7.65%  10.40%
Sheltered Sam     4.92%   24.36%  -0.61%   4.46%   4.22%   5.17%
VFINX             3.72%   19.30%  -2.32%   1.06%  -0.76%   0.27%

s&d               4.53%   22.45%   1.66%   5.57%   5.15%   5.99%
Newsletter G      3.96%   26.10%   0.31%   4.72%   3.26%   7.49%
3 fund            3.98%   21.72%   1.80%   4.82%   3.19%   3.63%
Newsletter G-IND  4.83%   25.80%  -0.72%   4.04%   3.09%   2.74%
LS G              3.88%   20.01%  -0.47%   2.96%   1.77%   2.42%
                  
coffeehouse       3.79%   16.88%   2.65%   5.15%   5.42%   5.85%
Wellington        2.55%   17.01%   3.37%   5.29%   5.33%   5.71%
STAR              3.43%   20.46%   1.91%   4.49%   4.18%   5.06%
Newsletter CG     3.31%   21.60%   0.41%   3.93%   3.03%   5.46%
LS MG             3.20%   16.58%   1.11%   3.49%   2.84%   3.30%
                  
Wellesley         1.87%   12.49%   4.79%   5.04%   5.78%   5.73%
LS CG             2.46%   14.27%   2.29%   3.64%   3.52%   3.88%
Newsletter Inc    2.72%   17.00%   0.52%   2.82%   3.23%   3.18%
                  
madsinger         4.33%   22.17%   1.76%         
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

Plus signs, up and down the board in September. Bond funds up over 1% for the month, large caps over 3%, small caps 5-6%, Emerging Market over 9%.

Not a lot of insights this month. If you're in stocks or bonds, your accounts have been rising pretty smartly the past few months.

Let's try to keep an even keel, and enjoy the ride!

-Brad.
sotaboy
Posts: 105
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:06 pm

Post by sotaboy »

Brad, thanks again for the update.
In the past, I've looked mostly at the numbers for the s/d, newsletter returns.
But now I'm starting to wonder if I should pay more attention to the Wellington/Wellesley numbers. I realize that the slow decline in interest rates have helped these funds. But they have also operated in a wide variety of environments. And have done reasonably well.
I'm wondering if putting 60-70% of a portfolio into W/W would not be a bad choice. The rest would probably go to international funds, which are volatile, but I think are good for the long run. It certainly would make my portfolio more simplified.
John
gkaplan
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Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:34 pm
Location: Portland, Oregon

Post by gkaplan »

As of 09/30/2009, the year-to-date return on my retirement portfolio is 20.79%. My one-year rate of return is 0.10%. My three-year rate of return is 0.65%. My five-year return is 31.39%.

My best performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (61.26%). My one-year rate of return is 16.79%. My three-year rate of return is 37.46%. My five-year rate of return is 149.78%.

My poorest performing fund, year-to-date, is the TSP G Fund (2.25%). My one-year rate of return is 3.11%. My three-year rate of return is 7.33%.

My retirement portfolio currently is divided among the following two investment vehicles:

69.45%: Vanguard Roth IRA (YTD, 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year returns: 28.97%, 1.18%, 1.19%, 36.37%, respectively)

30.55%: Thrift Savings Plan (YTD, 1-year, and 3-year returns: 4.97%, -2.41%, -8.88%, respectively)

Target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 72/28 Equity/Fixed Income. The seventy-two percent equity allocation is split equally between domestic and foreign equity; the foreign equity is split 2:1 between developed and emerging markets. My developed markets allocation is equally split between developed large and developed small. My developed large is split equally between the Europe and Pacific indexes. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

12%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
12%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
12%: Domestic REIT
6%: Foreign Developed Markets Large - Europe
6%: Foreign Developed Markets Large - Pacific
12% Foreign Developed Markets Small
12%: Foreign Emerging Markets (Large)
28%: Fixed Income

As of 09/30/2009, my current retirement portfolio allocation is split 69/31. Equity/Fixed Income. My Domestic Equity/Foreign Equity/Fixed Income is split 36/34/31. (Totals do not add up because of rounding.)

Specifically, my current allocations (as of 09/30/2009) are as follows.

11.02%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VIVAX)
12.32%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VISVX)
12.48%: Domestic REIT (VGSIX)
4.63%: Foreign Developed Markets Large – Europe (VEURX)
4.26%: Foreign Developed Markets Large – Pacific (VPACX)
12.52%: Foreign Developed Markets Small (VSFVX)
12.22%: Foreign Emerging Markets – Large (VEIEX)
30.55%: Fixed Income (TSP G Fund)

As an addendum, here are some interesting and remarkable and, yes, startling statistics of two very volatile funds:

The year-to-date, one-year, three-year, and five-year returns, respectively, for my Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (VEIEX) as of March, June, and September, respectively, were as follows:

03/31/2009: -0.25, -46.89, -26.40, +43.79
06/30/2009: +33.84, -21.60, +17.16, +125.36
09/30/2009: +61.26, +16.79, +37.46, +149.78

The year-to-date, one-year, three-year, and five-year returns, respectively, for my Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VGSIX) as of March, June, and September, respectively, were as follows:

03/31/2009: -32.08, -57.50, -67.72, -69.66
06/30/2009: -11.69, -38.63, -48.34, -42.60
09/30/2009: +20.59, -17.84, -24.68, -2.34



Gordon
Gordon
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Post by LFT_PFT »

Madsinger:

As always, thanks for posting the info.
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paulob
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Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:54 am

Post by paulob »

September was the best month for my IRA: 13.2%, since May. Also a good month for my son's IRA at 10.3% and my 401-k at 7.3%.
Paul
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