madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2009 returns, 2009 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2006 (10 years 6 months, 8 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                 CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  June   YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2009   2009    2006    2004    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -0.87%  1.46%  -8.79%   2.59%   6.49%   9.50%
Sheltered Sam    -0.97%  3.23%  -5.80%   1.18%   2.08%   3.44%
VFINX             0.22%  3.21%  -6.44%  -1.52%  -2.46%  -1.10%
                  
s&d              -0.38%  3.92%  -2.88%   2.72%   3.29%   4.49%
Newsletter G      0.28%  9.30%  -3.68%   2.25%   1.64%   6.22%
3 fund           -0.15%  5.85%  -2.06%   2.41%   1.61%   2.35%
Newsletter G-IND  0.09%  7.80%  -5.06%   1.34%   1.33%   1.31%
LS G              0.12%  4.43%  -4.38%   0.52%   0.17%   1.13%
                  
Wellington        0.52%  5.10%   0.49%   3.49%   4.17%   4.77%
coffeehouse       0.03%  1.40%  -1.25%   2.70%   3.83%   4.57%
STAR              0.77%  6.78%  -1.41%   2.43%   2.83%   3.99%
Newsletter CG     0.09%  7.50%  -3.04%   1.81%   1.63%   4.36%
LS MG             0.25%  3.91%  -2.08%   1.51%   1.54%   2.26%
                  
Wellesley         1.25%  2.12%   2.28%   3.44%   4.76%   4.90%
LS CG             0.43%  4.28%  -0.19%   2.09%   2.52%   3.07%
Newsletter Inc    0.66%  6.20%  -2.19%   1.16%   2.15%   2.31%
                  
madsinger        -0.30%  5.54%  -2.29%         
edit: corrected the June return for madsinger from +0.85% to -0.30%
Last edited by madsinger on Tue Jul 07, 2009 11:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
gkaplan
Posts: 7034
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:34 pm
Location: Portland, Oregon

Post by gkaplan »

As of 06/30/2009, the year-to-date return on my retirement portfolio is 4.67%. My one-year rate of return is –19.34%. My three-year rate of return is –10.11%. My five-year return is 13/17%.

My best performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (33.84%). My one-year rate of return is –21.60%. My three-year rate of return is 17.16%. My five-year rate of return is 125.36%. (That five-year return does not seem right, but I rechecked my figures. I guess this year’s strong second quarter for this fund and the strong 2004-2006 returns account for this elevated return.)

My poorest performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard REIT Index Fund (-11.69%). My one-year rate of return is –38.63%. My three-year rate of return for this fund is –48.34%. My five-year-rate of return is
-42.60%.

My retirement portfolio currently is divided among the following two investment vehicles:

65.71%: Vanguard Roth IRA (YTD, 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year returns:
4.93%, -23.79%, -14.56%, 10.55%)
34.29%: Thrift Savings Plan (YTD, 1-year, and 3-year returns: 4.15%,
-8.54%, -11.30%)

Target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 72/28 Equity/Fixed Income. The seventy-two percent equity allocation is split equally between domestic and foreign equity; the foreign equity is split 2:1 between developed and emerging markets. My developed markets allocation is equally split between developed large and developed small. My developed large is split equally between the Europe and Pacific indexes. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

12%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
12%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
12%: Domestic REIT
6%: Foreign Developed Markets Large - Europe
6%: Foreign Developed Markets Large - Pacific
12%: Foreign Developed Markets Small
12%: Foreign Emerging Markets (Large)
28%: Fixed Income

As of 06/30/2009, my current retirement portfolio allocation is split 66/34. Equity/Fixed Income. My Domestic Equity/Foreign Equity/Fixed Income is split 33/32/34. (Totals do not add up because of rounding.)

Specifically, my current allocations (as of 06/30/2009) are as follows.

10.91%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VIVAX)
11.56%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VISVX)
10.78%: Domestic REIT (VGSIX)
4.39%: Foreign Developed Markets Large – Europe (VEURX)
4.39%: Foreign Developed Markets Large – Pacific (VPACX)
11.94%: Foreign Developed Markets Small (VSFVX)
11.73%: Foreign Emerging Markets – Large (VEIEX)
34.29%: Fixed Income (TSP G Fund)

(Totals do not add up because of rounding.)
Gordon
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Robert T
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Post by Robert T »

.
Thanks Brad,

Mid-year: about 6% YTD, 9% annualized since start of 2003, against my long-term annualized return target of 7.5%. Staying the course. 75:25 stock:bond, globally diversified with small cap and value tilt.

2008 worst performer was EM equity, best performer Intermediate Treasuries.
2009 YTD best performer was EM equity, worst performer Intermediate Treasuries.

Seems to be a good diversification pairing (i.e. close to the extreme ends of “flight to quality”).

Robert
.
grayfox
Posts: 5569
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2007 4:30 am

Re: madsinger monthly report

Post by grayfox »

Hello. Thanks for the report.
madsinger wrote:Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2009 returns, 2009 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2006 (10 years 6 months, 8 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001.
I notice that you cover 100, 80, 60 and 40 stock allocations. How about completing the series with something around 20% stock for the risk averse?
Many retirees consider 40% stock way too risky and prefer 30%, 25% or even less stock. Something like Larry's portfolio with a 30% small value stocks and 70 Treasuries. Or Harry Brown's Permanent Portfolio with 25% stock.
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paulob
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Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:54 am

Post by paulob »

June was ugly with losses ranging from -2.9% in my son's IRA to -5.4% in our IRA's (due to leverage).

YTD is still doing well, 19.7% for my 401-k and 12.4% for our IRA's.

Thanks for the update, Brad.
Paul
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madsinger
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Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Post by madsinger »

I rechecked the numbers last night, and found an error in the madsinger (mine) portfolio for the June return. I couldn't really see how my portfolio returned +0.85% given all of the other numbers. After checking my numbers, my June return was -0.30%.

I'm still pretty happy with a +5% return for the first six months of the year. In fact, I'd take a 5% six month return for the rest of my life, if I could swing it!

Kind of a funny spread of returns in June. LB and SB (VFINX and NAESX) were up 0.22% and 1.16%, respectively. LV (VIVAX) down -0.88%. REITs (VGSIX) got hit -3.25%, and my trusty PM (VGPMX) was down -6.11%. Bonds up nicely. YTD, PM and EM have almost identical returns of 37.25%. REITs is my biggest downer at -8.72%. Any portfolio holdings VGSIX is lagging accordingly.

It was a wild "first half" of the year with a big drop through early March, and a big recovery since. Do I hear any calls for normalcy? (Please?!?)

I hope this "stress test" on people's portfolios has helped them define their proper asset allocation!

-Brad.
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