madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2009 returns, 2009 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2006 (10 years 5 months, 8 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                  CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  May     YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2009    2009    2006    2004    2001    1999
Hot Hands         5.49%   2.35%  -8.76%   2.80%   6.66%   9.67%
Sheltered Sam     7.75%   4.24%  -5.67%   1.38%   2.22%   3.57%
VFINX             5.62%   2.98%  -6.65%  -1.59%  -2.51%  -1.13%
            
s&d               6.67%   4.31%  -2.84%   2.84%   3.37%   4.56%
3 fund            7.12%   6.00%  -2.06%   2.48%   1.64%   2.38%
Newsletter G      6.24%   9.00%  -3.85%   2.23%   1.62%   6.24%
Newsletter G-IND  5.07%   7.70%  -5.20%   1.34%   1.33%   1.31%
LS G              5.83%   4.31%  -4.51%   0.50%   0.15%   1.13%
            
Wellington        6.30%   4.56%   0.35%   3.45%   4.15%   4.76%
coffeehouse       3.96%   1.37%  -1.29%   2.74%   3.87%   4.61%
STAR              5.38%   5.96%  -1.66%   2.32%   2.77%   3.94%
Newsletter CG     5.60%   7.40%  -3.14%   1.82%   1.64%   4.39%
LS MG             4.49%   3.65%  -2.20%   1.48%   1.52%   2.25%
            
Wellesley         4.39%   0.86%   1.96%   3.26%   4.65%   4.82%
LS CG             3.54%   3.83%  -0.32%   2.04%   2.49%   3.05%
Newsletter Inc    4.56%   5.50%  -2.43%   1.05%   2.09%   2.26%
bschultheis
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Post by bschultheis »

Thanks so much Brad, always appreciate your work.
statsguy
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Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:38 pm

Post by statsguy »

Thanks for the update... I like seeing how various portfolios are doing.

By the way, the newsletter portfolios are loading up on US Large and Mid Growth by redeploying what was invested in Global Equity. The current style box for the newsletter-G portfolio is approximately 88% equities and 12% bonds wioth a distinct growth tilt...

Code: Select all

        Value  Core  Growth
Large     13     15      30
Mid       13      8      12
Small      3      3       3
For what it is worth, I see the newsletter portfolios making a big bet. It has made big bets like this in the past with mostly positive (though mixed results).

Personally, our portfolio is more balanced than this... but I found it interesting. I suppose in a few years, the newsletter will either have someting to brag about or explain.

Thanks again for the update
Stats
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paulob
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Post by paulob »

I have stayed with a momentum strategy which has yielded 24.1% return YTD in my 401-k.

Our IRA also is heavily influenced by momentum but also includes some leveraged funds and Shadow stocks. YTD is 18.1%.

I did not calculate the YTD for my son's portfolio, but the 12 month return was 40.8%

Thanks again, Brad.
Paul
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Bounca
Posts: 896
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Post by Bounca »

Checking in…..

IRA (approx 70/30 AA)
Month 5.68 %


20% BND
5% BSV
5% TIP
5% WTMIX (Westcore Microcap)
5% DLS
10% VEA
5% VWO
5% VNQ
5% VBR
35% VTI

ROTH (approx 75/25 AA)
Month 3.20 %

Roughly 55% EXHAX (Manning and Napier Pro Blend Max)
Roughly 45% EXBAX (Manning and Napier Pro Blend Moderate)
SP-diceman
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Post by SP-diceman »

Our IRA also is heavily influenced by momentum but also includes some leveraged funds and Shadow stocks.
Whats a "Shadow stock"?


Thanks
SP-diceman
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madsinger
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Joined: Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:26 pm

Post by madsinger »

statsguy wrote:Thanks for the update... I like seeing how various portfolios are doing.

By the way, the newsletter portfolios are loading up on US Large and Mid Growth by redeploying what was invested in Global Equity. The current style box for the newsletter-G portfolio is approximately 88% equities and 12% bonds wioth a distinct growth tilt...

Code: Select all

        Value  Core  Growth
Large     13     15      30
Mid       13      8      12
Small      3      3       3
For what it is worth, I see the newsletter portfolios making a big bet. It has made big bets like this in the past with mostly positive (though mixed results).

Personally, our portfolio is more balanced than this... but I found it interesting. I suppose in a few years, the newsletter will either have someting to brag about or explain.

Thanks again for the update
Stats
Thank you, stats, for the "sneak peek". I figured that there must have been some change in the portfolios during the lows of March. To have a YTD return of 9% in Vanguard funds, when very few funds are up that much YTD, I guessed that there must have been some buying and selling near the March lows. I see that the Vanguard Capital Value fund (not a newsletter pick, as far as I know), is up over 60% in three months!

The "slice-n-dice" portfolios are getting held back by their slants to Value and REITs so far this year. A good tilt to "growth" (or frankly, just more neutral like the "3 fund" portfolio) has been an advantage over the "value tilted" portfolios.

The "Life Strategy" critics who complain about the "Asset Allocation" fund have some ammunition this year. The AA fund is trailing both the S&P 500 fund and a total bond fund (I think its bond portion is in Long Terms, which has performed badly this year). I think the inclusion of this fund in the AA series is the principle reason for their weaker showing, even against their "Target Retirement" brethren.

Thanks to all for posting!

-Brad.
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White Coat Investor
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Post by White Coat Investor »

Wow! This is the first time I've ever been crushing all the portfolios on a YTD basis...+13% on the year. I added a little money while the market was down in Feb-Apr though, so I suppose that's cheating.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
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Petrocelli
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Post by Petrocelli »

paulob wrote:I have stayed with a momentum strategy which has yielded 24.1% return YTD in my 401-k.

Our IRA also is heavily influenced by momentum but also includes some leveraged funds and Shadow stocks. YTD is 18.1%.

I did not calculate the YTD for my son's portfolio, but the 12 month return was 40.8%
Paul: Can you explain your "system"?

YTD, I'm up 7.04%.

Brad: Thanks
Petrocelli (not the real Rico, but just a fan)
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

I finally got around to calculating my YTD return (the first time I've done so all year). As of 5/31/2009, my "XIRR" number is 11.61% annualized, so to split that down to a year to date number (151 days so far):

1.1161 ^ (151/365) - 1 = 4.65%

My YTD return is 4.65%.

This seems in line with the "small and value" slice-n-dice portfolios.

It's nice to see it positive!

-Brad.
jharri71
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Post by jharri71 »

Nice to see STAR is up again, actually better than expected. Probably has to do with its holdings in international funds.
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paulob
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Post by paulob »

SP-diceman wrote:
Our IRA also is heavily influenced by momentum but also includes some leveraged funds and Shadow stocks.
Whats a "Shadow stock"?


Thanks
SP-diceman
AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) has published a "Shadow Stock" portfolio which is a rules based system for selecting and selling "small" microcap stocks.

I have never had success picking individual stocks, but started a small portfolio in our IRA's this year and a second "Small" Shadow Stock portfolio in my son's IRA as well. Maybe the rules will provide the discipline to earn a reasonable return on stocks with minimal time involvement.

I made these portfolios "public" on Morningstar if you wanted to see what I bought in January (and what I have already sold).

Just look for portfolio sharing under Paulob (they don't show up on the first page as my Shadow Stocks don't have 6 months of performance yet.

The best explanation of Shadow Stocks can be found at the library that has a back issue of the AAII Journal.
Paul
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Mel Lindauer
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Re: madsinger monthly report

Post by Mel Lindauer »

madsinger wrote:Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2009 returns, 2009 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2006 (10 years 5 months, 8 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                  CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  May     YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2009    2009    2006    2004    2001    1999
Hot Hands         5.49%   2.35%  -8.76%   2.80%   6.66%   9.67%
Sheltered Sam     7.75%   4.24%  -5.67%   1.38%   2.22%   3.57%
VFINX             5.62%   2.98%  -6.65%  -1.59%  -2.51%  -1.13%
            
s&d               6.67%   4.31%  -2.84%   2.84%   3.37%   4.56%
3 fund            7.12%   6.00%  -2.06%   2.48%   1.64%   2.38%
Newsletter G      6.24%   9.00%  -3.85%   2.23%   1.62%   6.24%
Newsletter G-IND  5.07%   7.70%  -5.20%   1.34%   1.33%   1.31%
LS G              5.83%   4.31%  -4.51%   0.50%   0.15%   1.13%
            
Wellington        6.30%   4.56%   0.35%   3.45%   4.15%   4.76%
coffeehouse       3.96%   1.37%  -1.29%   2.74%   3.87%   4.61%
STAR              5.38%   5.96%  -1.66%   2.32%   2.77%   3.94%
Newsletter CG     5.60%   7.40%  -3.14%   1.82%   1.64%   4.39%
LS MG             4.49%   3.65%  -2.20%   1.48%   1.52%   2.25%
            
Wellesley         4.39%   0.86%   1.96%   3.26%   4.65%   4.82%
LS CG             3.54%   3.83%  -0.32%   2.04%   2.49%   3.05%
Newsletter Inc    4.56%   5.50%  -2.43%   1.05%   2.09%   2.26%
Thanks, Brad, but what happened to Mel's Unloved Mid Caps?
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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paulob
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Post by paulob »

Petrocelli wrote:
paulob wrote:I have stayed with a momentum strategy which has yielded 24.1% return YTD in my 401-k.

Our IRA also is heavily influenced by momentum but also includes some leveraged funds and Shadow stocks. YTD is 18.1%.

I did not calculate the YTD for my son's portfolio, but the 12 month return was 40.8%
Paul: Can you explain your "system"?

YTD, I'm up 7.04%.

Brad: Thanks
My interest in momentum began with the infamous "hot hands". I was successful with the run in International Small Caps. I dropped out when it switched back to domestic.

By that time I was using the NoLoad newsletter to pick funds based on their momentum strategy. As I know you are familiar with their system, I had issues with their strategy limitations in the recent severe bear market. They put a little money in a bear fund, but left the remaining portfolio to get hammered. Diversification got creamed just as it did in Buy and Hold.

I decided to risk using inverse funds and ETF's. I made the selection using Market Edge which I access via an Ameritrade paid subscription.

I supplement that with a fund/ETF ranking system that is similiar to NoLoad, but has a much broader universe to select from.

Since I lean toward leveraged products, my results have a lot of deviation. The process that I use I really can't justify or substantiate to "the group". But I have been satisfied with the results and if I lose faith, or don't wish to continue the time committment, I will simply switch to a slice and dice portfolio and go on autopilot.
Paul
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