Individualizing Life Expectancy Estimates

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wolfv
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Individualizing Life Expectancy Estimates

Post by wolfv »

Individualized life expectancy estimates are useful for retirement planning.
Here is a study that uses health markers to estimate life expectancy in older adults:

Individualizing Life Expectancy Estimates for Older Adults Using the Gompertz Law of Human Mortality, 2014
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4180452/
The study is intended for clinical decision-making for preventive interventions such as cancer screening.
Here is how to estimate a life expectancy using the tables in the study:
  1. On Table 1, sum your "Point Score". This score is based on things like age, gender, comorbidities and difficulty with functional measures.
  2. On Table 2, use the "Point Score" to look up "Gompertz-Predicted Median Life Expectancy"
  3. On Table 3, use the "Point Score" to look up "Mortality" Predicted from HRSDevelopmentCohort
It seems to be accurate in the last 10 years of life.

The individualizing life expectancy estimates are based on a previous study:
Development and Validation of a Prognostic Index for 4-Year Mortality in Older Adults, 2006
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/a ... c60006.pdf
Table 3. Independent Risk Factors for 4-Year Mortality
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plannerman
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Re: Individualizing Life Expectancy Estimates

Post by plannerman »

Thanks for posting this. I found it helpful as I'm in the process of deciding on treatment options for slow growing cancer.

plannerman
SuzBanyan
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Re: Individualizing Life Expectancy Estimates

Post by SuzBanyan »

Thanks for posting this! Very interesting. I found it interesting that inability to manage finances earned as many “points” as being unable to walk several blocks.
afan
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Re: Individualizing Life Expectancy Estimates

Post by afan »

It does illustrate the difficulty in projecting survival, even late in life. For those who are probably more than 20 years from the end, planning should include a wide range of possible age age death.
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Flyer24
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Re: Individualizing Life Expectancy Estimates

Post by Flyer24 »

This thread has run its course and is locked (not personal nor actionable). General comment threads are off topic in the forums with "Personal" in the title. See: A reminder that non-investing general comment threads are OT
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Topic Author
wolfv
Posts: 86
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2015 3:20 am

Individualizing Life Expectancy Estimates

Post by wolfv »

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

Individualized life expectancy estimates are useful for retirement planning.
Here is a study that uses health markers to estimate life expectancy in older adults:

Individualizing Life Expectancy Estimates for Older Adults Using the Gompertz Law of Human Mortality, 2014
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4180452/
The study is intended for clinical decision-making for preventive interventions such as cancer screening.
Here is how to estimate a life expectancy using the tables in the study:
  1. On Table 1, sum your "Point Score". This score is based on things like age, gender, comorbidities and difficulty with functional measures.
  2. On Table 2, use the "Point Score" to look up "Gompertz-Predicted Median Life Expectancy"
  3. On Table 3, use the "Point Score" to look up "Mortality" Predicted from HRSDevelopmentCohort
It seems to be accurate in the last 10 years of life.

The individualizing life expectancy estimates are based on a previous study:
Development and Validation of a Prognostic Index for 4-Year Mortality in Older Adults, 2006
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/a ... c60006.pdf
Table 3. Independent Risk Factors for 4-Year Mortality
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LadyGeek
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Re: Individualizing Life Expectancy Estimates

Post by LadyGeek »

I merged wolfv's post into the locked discussion. The thread remains locked (not actionable). See: Locked Topics
...if a topic is locked, please do not start up another thread to continue the discussion...
The study constitutes medical advice (predicting your own longevity) and is off-topic. See: Medical Issues
Questions on medical issues are beyond the scope of the forum. If you are looking for medical information online, I suggest you start with the Medical Library Association's User's Guide to Finding and Evaluating Health Information on the Web which, in addition to providing guidance on evaluating health information, includes a list of their top recommended sites.
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