Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
9-5 Suited
Posts: 1307
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 12:14 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by 9-5 Suited »

whodidntante wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:21 pm You just never hear from ARKK investors anymore.
You still hear a lot from Cathie Wood though …
S4C5
Posts: 443
Joined: Sat May 05, 2018 11:49 am

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by S4C5 »

exodusNH wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:54 am
S4C5 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:33 am
HMSVictory wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 5:20 am
S4C5 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:13 pm No. We are still living in a fantasy world where people think million dollar homes are the new normal.

It will get real when people realize their 401k(s) aren’t worth worth what they thought they were AND neither is their house.

The latter is still materializing for a variety of reasons but I believe it will happen. I believe we will see sub 3000 s&p before long, which I would consider a more reasonable long term entry point. I am not buying right now, and it appears I am not alone.
I will take the other side of the trade on housing. Due to the high cost of building new (which I am doing now) and the very, very, very limited supply of existing homes I do not see housing prices going down. I can see the rate of increasing prices level off but I don't think a pullback will happen. The housing market is not driven by speculation now it is driven by demand. When I sold my house I had 30 showings in 2 days. First person to see it made me an offer $50k over asking all cash. I don't know if this will continue but I don't believe prices will fall......... time will tell.
Cost of building is high and supply is limited… right now. Lumber prices are coming down dramatically. Builder and buyer sentiment are falling back to prepandemic levels. Buyer sentiment actually way way lower.

Those things are changing as we speak.

Lots of artificial things affecting both beyond normal market forces.

There is not a shortage of houses in America. There is a shortage of houses for sale. They are being hoarded by an increasing percentage of owners who do not occupy them. And there are a lot of people who have been allowed to remain in homes they could otherwise never afford due to free money and mortgage forebearance, which is coming to an end. This problem will eventually correct I believe.

If people think their newfound paper wealth in their houses that they bought for 500k in 2010 and are now “worth” 1.4M fueled by pandemic era money printing and zero percent interest rates will sustain through a significant and prolonged recession they need a reality check. There is no market for 1.4M homes when mortgages are 8% and there is high unemployment, regardless of what it costs to build new.
The US is millions of housing units short. I'm not sure where you get the notion that they're "being hoarded." If people aren't selling, it because they can't find a new house with the location, features, or price they can afford.

The GFC killed new home construction for years. There was a point where housing stock was actually decreasing because new builds weren't keeping up with destruction.

Currently, we'd need to double the new housing build rate to catch up over 5 years.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/10891746 ... pply-chain is one article that discussed this.
There is plenty of housing in America for all of its citizens. People are living places now. They have roofs over their heads. They just don’t own it.

Viewing houses as investments is one of the biggest travesties to happen in decades and has massively contributed to the wealth gap.

https://www.danablankenhorn.com/2022/03 ... rtage.html

Good summary of how we got here…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZxzBcxB7Zc
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 13114
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by whodidntante »

9-5 Suited wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 8:30 pm
whodidntante wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:21 pm You just never hear from ARKK investors anymore.
You still hear a lot from Cathie Wood though …
Somehow, I don't. But I don't consume financial news very often. Also, I think she is overrated but had a period of good luck. So I might see her name but avoid creating a memory. Just like you can't remember the seventh word of what I wrote in this reply.
smooth_rough
Posts: 793
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:14 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by smooth_rough »

This is what the beginning of recession looks like. But they won't call it yet without more data.
muffins14
Posts: 5528
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:14 am
Location: New York

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by muffins14 »

S4C5 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 8:35 pm
There is plenty of housing in America for all of its citizens. People are living places now. They have roofs over their heads. They just don’t own it.
FYI there are many homeless people in America, and many borderline, who sacrifice other essentials to avoid losing their roof
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
TravelforFun
Posts: 2799
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2012 10:05 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by TravelforFun »

HMSVictory wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 4:43 pm
firefox wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 4:40 pm I feel for those who are close to retiring.
Unless they are 100% equities they will be fine. Yes bonds are down dramatically as well but this too shall pass.
Retirees like us don't sell stocks to supplement our income in times like this. We sell bonds and cut back on expenses.

TravelforFun
User avatar
arcticpineapplecorp.
Posts: 15080
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:22 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
elderwise
Posts: 836
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:27 am

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by elderwise »

Not to short change this, but how does Sri Lanka going to default affect us here or the global recession risk in a meaningful way?

I do feel bad for the local populace there
User avatar
jabberwockOG
Posts: 3087
Joined: Thu May 28, 2015 7:23 am

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by jabberwockOG »

S4C5 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:33 am
HMSVictory wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 5:20 am
S4C5 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:13 pm No. We are still living in a fantasy world where people think million dollar homes are the new normal.

It will get real when people realize their 401k(s) aren’t worth worth what they thought they were AND neither is their house.

The latter is still materializing for a variety of reasons but I believe it will happen. I believe we will see sub 3000 s&p before long, which I would consider a more reasonable long term entry point. I am not buying right now, and it appears I am not alone.
I will take the other side of the trade on housing. Due to the high cost of building new (which I am doing now) and the very, very, very limited supply of existing homes I do not see housing prices going down. I can see the rate of increasing prices level off but I don't think a pullback will happen. The housing market is not driven by speculation now it is driven by demand. When I sold my house I had 30 showings in 2 days. First person to see it made me an offer $50k over asking all cash. I don't know if this will continue but I don't believe prices will fall......... time will tell.
Cost of building is high and supply is limited… right now. Lumber prices are coming down dramatically. Builder and buyer sentiment are falling back to prepandemic levels. Buyer sentiment actually way way lower.

Those things are changing as we speak.

Lots of artificial things affecting both beyond normal market forces.

There is not a shortage of houses in America. There is a shortage of houses for sale. They are being hoarded by an increasing percentage of owners who do not occupy them. And there are a lot of people who have been allowed to remain in homes they could otherwise never afford due to free money and mortgage forebearance, which is coming to an end. This problem will eventually correct I believe.

If people think their newfound paper wealth in their houses that they bought for 500k in 2010 and are now “worth” 1.4M fueled by pandemic era money printing and zero percent interest rates will sustain through a significant and prolonged recession they need a reality check. There is no market for 1.4M homes when mortgages are 8% and there is high unemployment, regardless of what it costs to build new.

Inflation is very likely to persist for multiple years - it's not a short term phenomenon.

By 2032, housing prices in attractive areas all over the US will have doubled. Salaries for well educated professionals and skilled high demand jobs will continue to climb. Anyone who thinks prices of real property and capital goods are going to go down in the next 10 years is smoking the good expensive stuff.

2032-2042 demographic changes may ease prices, driven by majority of boomers hitting the long dark eternity trail.
Last edited by jabberwockOG on Thu May 19, 2022 9:14 pm, edited 3 times in total.
User avatar
arcticpineapplecorp.
Posts: 15080
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:22 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

elderwise wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:08 pm
Not to short change this, but how does Sri Lanka going to default affect us here or the global recession risk in a meaningful way?

I do feel bad for the local populace there
just thought it should be noted. some countries have it much much worse and their default is a historical event, so I find it worthy of sharing.
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
elderwise
Posts: 836
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:27 am

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by elderwise »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:10 pm
elderwise wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:08 pm
Not to short change this, but how does Sri Lanka going to default affect us here or the global recession risk in a meaningful way?

I do feel bad for the local populace there
just thought it should be noted. some countries have it much much worse and their default is a historical event, so I find it worthy of sharing.
Agreed , we'll said.

Also I somehow feel this ukraine thing is also not like tye 2014 Crimea annexation and will have longer lasting implications even if we don't escalate to a full blown ww3. As is we have real inflation, covid affected supply chain issues throw in Ukraine russia to the mix.. we have something bad brewing.

Hope things sort themselves out soon.

The longer this drags the lesser the chance .
averagedude
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by averagedude »

If we aren't then we will be. A good time to be young and an accumulator.
keith6014
Posts: 697
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2014 10:58 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by keith6014 »

averagedude wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:28 pm If we aren't then we will be. A good time to be young and an accumulator.
and have a job
smooth_rough
Posts: 793
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:14 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by smooth_rough »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:10 pm
elderwise wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:08 pm
Not to short change this, but how does Sri Lanka going to default affect us here or the global recession risk in a meaningful way?

I do feel bad for the local populace there
just thought it should be noted. some countries have it much much worse and their default is a historical event, so I find it worthy of sharing.
I'm not big on emerging markets. Flight to quality.
S4C5
Posts: 443
Joined: Sat May 05, 2018 11:49 am

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by S4C5 »

jabberwockOG wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:08 pm
S4C5 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:33 am
HMSVictory wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 5:20 am
S4C5 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:13 pm No. We are still living in a fantasy world where people think million dollar homes are the new normal.

It will get real when people realize their 401k(s) aren’t worth worth what they thought they were AND neither is their house.

The latter is still materializing for a variety of reasons but I believe it will happen. I believe we will see sub 3000 s&p before long, which I would consider a more reasonable long term entry point. I am not buying right now, and it appears I am not alone.
I will take the other side of the trade on housing. Due to the high cost of building new (which I am doing now) and the very, very, very limited supply of existing homes I do not see housing prices going down. I can see the rate of increasing prices level off but I don't think a pullback will happen. The housing market is not driven by speculation now it is driven by demand. When I sold my house I had 30 showings in 2 days. First person to see it made me an offer $50k over asking all cash. I don't know if this will continue but I don't believe prices will fall......... time will tell.
Cost of building is high and supply is limited… right now. Lumber prices are coming down dramatically. Builder and buyer sentiment are falling back to prepandemic levels. Buyer sentiment actually way way lower.

Those things are changing as we speak.

Lots of artificial things affecting both beyond normal market forces.

There is not a shortage of houses in America. There is a shortage of houses for sale. They are being hoarded by an increasing percentage of owners who do not occupy them. And there are a lot of people who have been allowed to remain in homes they could otherwise never afford due to free money and mortgage forebearance, which is coming to an end. This problem will eventually correct I believe.

If people think their newfound paper wealth in their houses that they bought for 500k in 2010 and are now “worth” 1.4M fueled by pandemic era money printing and zero percent interest rates will sustain through a significant and prolonged recession they need a reality check. There is no market for 1.4M homes when mortgages are 8% and there is high unemployment, regardless of what it costs to build new.

Inflation is very likely to persist for multiple years - it's not a short term phenomenon.

By 2032, housing prices in attractive areas all over the US will have doubled. Salaries for well educated professionals and skilled high demand jobs will continue to climb. Anyone who thinks prices of real property and capital goods are going to go down in the next 10 years is smoking the good expensive stuff.

2032-2042 demographic changes may ease prices, driven by majority of boomers hitting the long dark eternity trail.
Not in 10 years but revert back to where they were. The run up in prices over the past two years was artificial, not normal supply and demand forces in a freely operating market. Anybody who tells you this never-happened-ever-before-event was natural is the one who is “smoking the good expensive stuff.”

The rate of new loans that are ARMs are skyrocketing. So that argument is rapidly evaporating that there are no ARMs anymore. We have people taking out ARMs at record increasing pace starting at 5% to buy houses at all time high prices when we are staring a recession in the face and the equities markets are actively crashing. Does this not give you pause? When will the “new normal” crowd finally get it?

I am a highly compensated physician. Ask physicians, the biggest group of high earners in the us, our incomes are not going up. We are doing more work to make the same money, forget about inflation, or just accepting lower reimbursements.
exodusNH
Posts: 10344
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:21 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by exodusNH »

S4C5 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 8:35 pm
exodusNH wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:54 am
S4C5 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:33 am
HMSVictory wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 5:20 am
S4C5 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:13 pm No. We are still living in a fantasy world where people think million dollar homes are the new normal.

It will get real when people realize their 401k(s) aren’t worth worth what they thought they were AND neither is their house.

The latter is still materializing for a variety of reasons but I believe it will happen. I believe we will see sub 3000 s&p before long, which I would consider a more reasonable long term entry point. I am not buying right now, and it appears I am not alone.
I will take the other side of the trade on housing. Due to the high cost of building new (which I am doing now) and the very, very, very limited supply of existing homes I do not see housing prices going down. I can see the rate of increasing prices level off but I don't think a pullback will happen. The housing market is not driven by speculation now it is driven by demand. When I sold my house I had 30 showings in 2 days. First person to see it made me an offer $50k over asking all cash. I don't know if this will continue but I don't believe prices will fall......... time will tell.
Cost of building is high and supply is limited… right now. Lumber prices are coming down dramatically. Builder and buyer sentiment are falling back to prepandemic levels. Buyer sentiment actually way way lower.

Those things are changing as we speak.

Lots of artificial things affecting both beyond normal market forces.

There is not a shortage of houses in America. There is a shortage of houses for sale. They are being hoarded by an increasing percentage of owners who do not occupy them. And there are a lot of people who have been allowed to remain in homes they could otherwise never afford due to free money and mortgage forebearance, which is coming to an end. This problem will eventually correct I believe.

If people think their newfound paper wealth in their houses that they bought for 500k in 2010 and are now “worth” 1.4M fueled by pandemic era money printing and zero percent interest rates will sustain through a significant and prolonged recession they need a reality check. There is no market for 1.4M homes when mortgages are 8% and there is high unemployment, regardless of what it costs to build new.
The US is millions of housing units short. I'm not sure where you get the notion that they're "being hoarded." If people aren't selling, it because they can't find a new house with the location, features, or price they can afford.

The GFC killed new home construction for years. There was a point where housing stock was actually decreasing because new builds weren't keeping up with destruction.

Currently, we'd need to double the new housing build rate to catch up over 5 years.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/10891746 ... pply-chain is one article that discussed this.
There is plenty of housing in America for all of its citizens. People are living places now. They have roofs over their heads. They just don’t own it.

Viewing houses as investments is one of the biggest travesties to happen in decades and has massively contributed to the wealth gap.

https://www.danablankenhorn.com/2022/03 ... rtage.html

Good summary of how we got here…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZxzBcxB7Zc
I think we're going to get tsk-tsk'd for veering off topic.

The video was fascinating. But it seems to support the assertion that there aren't enough houses.

I agree that they shouldn't be used as an investment. I also disagree with companies being able to purchase baskets of houses.

At the same time, I don't want to live next to a 20 unit apartment building. Too much noise. I live about 1 mile from the downtown area, specifically because I can have 1/3 acre and a two-car garage. I want the space. I wouldn't feel right making that argument if I lived in downtown.

Peter Zeihan has some very interesting analyses. Don't want to go too far off topic, though.
exodusNH
Posts: 10344
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:21 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by exodusNH »

S4C5 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:10 pm
jabberwockOG wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:08 pm
S4C5 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:33 am
HMSVictory wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 5:20 am
S4C5 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:13 pm No. We are still living in a fantasy world where people think million dollar homes are the new normal.

It will get real when people realize their 401k(s) aren’t worth worth what they thought they were AND neither is their house.

The latter is still materializing for a variety of reasons but I believe it will happen. I believe we will see sub 3000 s&p before long, which I would consider a more reasonable long term entry point. I am not buying right now, and it appears I am not alone.
I will take the other side of the trade on housing. Due to the high cost of building new (which I am doing now) and the very, very, very limited supply of existing homes I do not see housing prices going down. I can see the rate of increasing prices level off but I don't think a pullback will happen. The housing market is not driven by speculation now it is driven by demand. When I sold my house I had 30 showings in 2 days. First person to see it made me an offer $50k over asking all cash. I don't know if this will continue but I don't believe prices will fall......... time will tell.
Cost of building is high and supply is limited… right now. Lumber prices are coming down dramatically. Builder and buyer sentiment are falling back to prepandemic levels. Buyer sentiment actually way way lower.

Those things are changing as we speak.

Lots of artificial things affecting both beyond normal market forces.

There is not a shortage of houses in America. There is a shortage of houses for sale. They are being hoarded by an increasing percentage of owners who do not occupy them. And there are a lot of people who have been allowed to remain in homes they could otherwise never afford due to free money and mortgage forebearance, which is coming to an end. This problem will eventually correct I believe.

If people think their newfound paper wealth in their houses that they bought for 500k in 2010 and are now “worth” 1.4M fueled by pandemic era money printing and zero percent interest rates will sustain through a significant and prolonged recession they need a reality check. There is no market for 1.4M homes when mortgages are 8% and there is high unemployment, regardless of what it costs to build new.

Inflation is very likely to persist for multiple years - it's not a short term phenomenon.

By 2032, housing prices in attractive areas all over the US will have doubled. Salaries for well educated professionals and skilled high demand jobs will continue to climb. Anyone who thinks prices of real property and capital goods are going to go down in the next 10 years is smoking the good expensive stuff.

2032-2042 demographic changes may ease prices, driven by majority of boomers hitting the long dark eternity trail.
Not in 10 years but revert back to where they were. The run up in prices over the past two years was artificial, not normal supply and demand forces in a freely operating market. Anybody who tells you this never-happened-ever-before-event was natural is the one who is “smoking the good expensive stuff.”

The rate of new loans that are ARMs are skyrocketing. So that argument is rapidly evaporating that there are no ARMs anymore. We have people taking out ARMs at record increasing pace starting at 5% to buy houses at all time high prices when we are staring a recession in the face and the equities markets are actively crashing. Does this not give you pause? When will the “new normal” crowd finally get it?

I am a highly compensated physician. Ask physicians, the biggest group of high earners in the us, our incomes are not going up. We are doing more work to make the same money, forget about inflation, or just accepting lower reimbursements.
The last two years were insane. The trajectory before that was much more sensible.

I bought my place in August 2005. Until 2020, it was worth less -- in nominal dollars -- than what I had paid for it due to the GFC crash. It's now "worth" more, nominally. It needs to go up another 20% to cover plain-old inflation and the money I've put into it, to get me to 0% real. I figured it'd be another 10 years to recover the value. Not 18 months.
S4C5
Posts: 443
Joined: Sat May 05, 2018 11:49 am

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by S4C5 »

exodusNH wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:34 pm
S4C5 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 8:35 pm
exodusNH wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:54 am
S4C5 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:33 am
HMSVictory wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 5:20 am

I will take the other side of the trade on housing. Due to the high cost of building new (which I am doing now) and the very, very, very limited supply of existing homes I do not see housing prices going down. I can see the rate of increasing prices level off but I don't think a pullback will happen. The housing market is not driven by speculation now it is driven by demand. When I sold my house I had 30 showings in 2 days. First person to see it made me an offer $50k over asking all cash. I don't know if this will continue but I don't believe prices will fall......... time will tell.
Cost of building is high and supply is limited… right now. Lumber prices are coming down dramatically. Builder and buyer sentiment are falling back to prepandemic levels. Buyer sentiment actually way way lower.

Those things are changing as we speak.

Lots of artificial things affecting both beyond normal market forces.

There is not a shortage of houses in America. There is a shortage of houses for sale. They are being hoarded by an increasing percentage of owners who do not occupy them. And there are a lot of people who have been allowed to remain in homes they could otherwise never afford due to free money and mortgage forebearance, which is coming to an end. This problem will eventually correct I believe.

If people think their newfound paper wealth in their houses that they bought for 500k in 2010 and are now “worth” 1.4M fueled by pandemic era money printing and zero percent interest rates will sustain through a significant and prolonged recession they need a reality check. There is no market for 1.4M homes when mortgages are 8% and there is high unemployment, regardless of what it costs to build new.
The US is millions of housing units short. I'm not sure where you get the notion that they're "being hoarded." If people aren't selling, it because they can't find a new house with the location, features, or price they can afford.

The GFC killed new home construction for years. There was a point where housing stock was actually decreasing because new builds weren't keeping up with destruction.

Currently, we'd need to double the new housing build rate to catch up over 5 years.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/29/10891746 ... pply-chain is one article that discussed this.
There is plenty of housing in America for all of its citizens. People are living places now. They have roofs over their heads. They just don’t own it.

Viewing houses as investments is one of the biggest travesties to happen in decades and has massively contributed to the wealth gap.

https://www.danablankenhorn.com/2022/03 ... rtage.html

Good summary of how we got here…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZxzBcxB7Zc
I think we're going to get tsk-tsk'd for veering off topic.

The video was fascinating. But it seems to support the assertion that there aren't enough houses.

I agree that they shouldn't be used as an investment. I also disagree with companies being able to purchase baskets of houses.

At the same time, I don't want to live next to a 20 unit apartment building. Too much noise. I live about 1 mile from the downtown area, specifically because I can have 1/3 acre and a two-car garage. I want the space. I wouldn't feel right making that argument if I lived in downtown.

Peter Zeihan has some very interesting analyses. Don't want to go too far off topic, though.
The video is focused on the UK. I’m less familiar with the situation there. It could be there actually are not enough homes and people are having to live in shared households (or be homeless because that’s what a real housing shortage means). In Europe, especially in soviet countries, housing was accomplished with dormitory style blocks. That’s basically what’s being proposed now as a “solution.”
I think we all can recognize that’s a suboptimal solution. We just go from a shortage of housing to a shortage of decent housing.

In the US, we have a situation where we have a lot of investor owned single family and multi family homes as well as vacant homes.

We have a situation recently where investors like Opendoor were buying single family homes and relisting them a few weeks later to take advantage of the rapidly rising prices. Basically arbitrage. If this doesn’t scream bubble I don’t know what does. Now these homes are sitting and they are having to cut them week by week in these formerly hottest of the hot markets.
User avatar
oldcomputerguy
Moderator
Posts: 17932
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2015 5:50 am
Location: Tennessee

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by oldcomputerguy »

This topic has veered off from discussion of a possible bear market and into discussion of real estate. Please bring the discussion back to the original topic (are we in a bear market).
There is only one success - to be able to spend your life in your own way. (Christopher Morley)
User avatar
HMSVictory
Posts: 1715
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:02 am
Location: Lower Gun Deck

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by HMSVictory »

jabberwockOG wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:08 pm
S4C5 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:33 am
HMSVictory wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 5:20 am
S4C5 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 8:13 pm No. We are still living in a fantasy world where people think million dollar homes are the new normal.

It will get real when people realize their 401k(s) aren’t worth worth what they thought they were AND neither is their house.

The latter is still materializing for a variety of reasons but I believe it will happen. I believe we will see sub 3000 s&p before long, which I would consider a more reasonable long term entry point. I am not buying right now, and it appears I am not alone.
I will take the other side of the trade on housing. Due to the high cost of building new (which I am doing now) and the very, very, very limited supply of existing homes I do not see housing prices going down. I can see the rate of increasing prices level off but I don't think a pullback will happen. The housing market is not driven by speculation now it is driven by demand. When I sold my house I had 30 showings in 2 days. First person to see it made me an offer $50k over asking all cash. I don't know if this will continue but I don't believe prices will fall......... time will tell.
Cost of building is high and supply is limited… right now. Lumber prices are coming down dramatically. Builder and buyer sentiment are falling back to prepandemic levels. Buyer sentiment actually way way lower.

Those things are changing as we speak.

Lots of artificial things affecting both beyond normal market forces.

There is not a shortage of houses in America. There is a shortage of houses for sale. They are being hoarded by an increasing percentage of owners who do not occupy them. And there are a lot of people who have been allowed to remain in homes they could otherwise never afford due to free money and mortgage forebearance, which is coming to an end. This problem will eventually correct I believe.

If people think their newfound paper wealth in their houses that they bought for 500k in 2010 and are now “worth” 1.4M fueled by pandemic era money printing and zero percent interest rates will sustain through a significant and prolonged recession they need a reality check. There is no market for 1.4M homes when mortgages are 8% and there is high unemployment, regardless of what it costs to build new.

Inflation is very likely to persist for multiple years - it's not a short term phenomenon.

By 2032, housing prices in attractive areas all over the US will have doubled. Salaries for well educated professionals and skilled high demand jobs will continue to climb. Anyone who thinks prices of real property and capital goods are going to go down in the next 10 years is smoking the good expensive stuff.

2032-2042 demographic changes may ease prices, driven by majority of boomers hitting the long dark eternity trail.
I agree totally. The increase in the money supply for years will have a long tail and inflation is the byproduct of it.

I don't think home buyers care right now what rates are - 5-7% and it won't slow them down a bit. There is very limited supply of for sale homes and as soon as they are listed they sell immediately.
Stay the course!
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by KlangFool »

averagedude wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:28 pm If we aren't then we will be. A good time to be young and an accumulator.
Until the person is unemployed. Millions are unemployed in every recession.

My employer just announced a hiring freeze. Some people were laid off recently.

KlangFool
Last edited by KlangFool on Fri May 20, 2022 7:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
mnsportsgeek
Posts: 555
Joined: Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:39 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by mnsportsgeek »

Most articles I've read are using the SP500 as the metric to define the bear market. So the media doesn't consider us there yet. SP500 is down a little less than 19% this year.
homebuyer6426
Posts: 1830
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:08 am

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by homebuyer6426 »

mnsportsgeek wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 7:12 am Most articles I've read are using the SP500 as the metric to define the bear market. So the media doesn't consider us there yet. SP500 is down a little less than 19% this year.
When you don't adjust for inflation.
45% Total Stock Market | 52% Consumer Staples | 3% Short Term Reserves
exodusNH
Posts: 10344
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:21 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by exodusNH »

homebuyer6426 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 7:46 am
mnsportsgeek wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 7:12 am Most articles I've read are using the SP500 as the metric to define the bear market. So the media doesn't consider us there yet. SP500 is down a little less than 19% this year.
When you don't adjust for inflation.
That's not part of the definition. And since inflation is a personal number, not the single value the government published, which is the equivalent of the "spherical cow" explanations of physics, you couldn't apply it to 500 separate companies as a block. Microsoft's inflation number is going to be very different from Tyson Food's.
homebuyer6426
Posts: 1830
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:08 am

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by homebuyer6426 »

exodusNH wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 7:57 am
homebuyer6426 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 7:46 am
mnsportsgeek wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 7:12 am Most articles I've read are using the SP500 as the metric to define the bear market. So the media doesn't consider us there yet. SP500 is down a little less than 19% this year.
When you don't adjust for inflation.
That's not part of the definition. And since inflation is a personal number, not the single value the government published, which is the equivalent of the "spherical cow" explanations of physics, you couldn't apply it to 500 separate companies as a block. Microsoft's inflation number is going to be very different from Tyson Food's.
So we're in a spherical bear market.
45% Total Stock Market | 52% Consumer Staples | 3% Short Term Reserves
atdharris
Posts: 2091
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:18 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by atdharris »

We're close. We seem to bounce each time we cross that -20% mark, then sell back off.
mnsportsgeek
Posts: 555
Joined: Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:39 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by mnsportsgeek »

S&P500 just crossed 19% down for the first time this year.
Last edited by mnsportsgeek on Fri May 20, 2022 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
atdharris
Posts: 2091
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:18 pm

Re: Are we officially in Bear Market now?

Post by atdharris »

We'll probably jump 4% Monday and sell off the remaining 4 days
jnw
Posts: 567
Joined: Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:25 am

We are now in a bear market?

Post by jnw »

[Merged into existing discussion -- moderator oldcomputerguy]

S&P 500 just hit -20% today from high back in 2021. VTI is down about 21% from high in 2021. NASDAQ is down about 31% from 2021 high. Tesla is down over 8% today and about 49% from the 2021 high.

Since we have just hit -20% that means we are in fact in a bear market? And if the next GDP report shows contraction, then we are officially in a recession?

At what point does it become a "crash" ?
Marseille07
Posts: 16054
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by Marseille07 »

I have 3837.25 closing price being -20% from the ATH close.

We might get there today but not yet as of this writing.
livesoft
Posts: 86075
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by livesoft »

JenniferW wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:29 amAt what point does it become a "crash" ?
When you capitulate and sell all your equities then it becomes a "crash." Please let us know when you do that. Thanks!
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
homebuyer6426
Posts: 1830
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:08 am

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by homebuyer6426 »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:36 am We might get there today but not yet as of this writing.
Around 12 minutes ago
45% Total Stock Market | 52% Consumer Staples | 3% Short Term Reserves
Marseille07
Posts: 16054
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by Marseille07 »

homebuyer6426 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:50 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:36 am We might get there today but not yet as of this writing.
Around 12 minutes ago
We need to confirm the closing price.
H-Town
Posts: 5905
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:08 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by H-Town »

JenniferW wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:29 am S&P 500 just hit -20% today from high back in 2021. VTI is down about 21% from high in 2021. NASDAQ is down about 31% from 2021 high. Tesla is down over 8% today and about 49% from the 2021 high.

Since we have just hit -20% that means we are in fact in a bear market? And if the next GDP report shows contraction, then we are officially in a recession?

At what point does it become a "crash" ?
I scoffed at 20%-30% when I go shopping for the holidays. I still think 20%-30% discount of equity isn't quite exciting yet. We have roughly 350k loss on paper, but we also bought a lot of equity that the price level back in 2020 and 2021. 5 years from now, we may be a little bit richer because of this "bloop" happened in 2022.

And if you care when it's recession or a crash? You will hear it from the media. They won't pass up this chance. Keep your iphone push notification on. WJS, CNBC, and other media outlet will flood your phone with notification that we're in a bear market, recession, crash, etc. But how does it impact you is a totally different matter.
Time is the ultimate currency.
Firemenot
Posts: 1497
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:48 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by Firemenot »

Yawn. Let me know when SP500 dips below level right before Covid. People then were quite happy with the “high” value at the time.
sil2017
Posts: 685
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2017 6:25 am

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by sil2017 »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:51 am
homebuyer6426 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:50 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:36 am We might get there today but not yet as of this writing.
Around 12 minutes ago
We need to confirm the closing price.
if not today, it will reach there and IMO, we will fall more. I am guessing about 30 percent from the 52 week high

lately every rally has been a lot of selling and hardly any buyers
Marseille07
Posts: 16054
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by Marseille07 »

sil2017 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:58 am if not today, it will reach there and IMO, we will fall more. I am guessing about 30 percent from the 52 week high

lately every rally has been a lot of selling and hardly any buyers
I think we'll reach there soon too. Just saying we need to confirm the closing price.
Dusn
Posts: 217
Joined: Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:59 am

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by Dusn »

It feels strange calling it a bear market when it was overvalued before and now is priced more reasonably.
H-Town
Posts: 5905
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:08 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by H-Town »

Time is the ultimate currency.
exodusNH
Posts: 10344
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:21 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by exodusNH »

sil2017 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:58 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:51 am
homebuyer6426 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:50 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:36 am We might get there today but not yet as of this writing.
Around 12 minutes ago
We need to confirm the closing price.
if not today, it will reach there and IMO, we will fall more. I am guessing about 30 percent from the 52 week high

lately every rally has been a lot of selling and hardly any buyers
That can't be true. Every sale has a buyer at the other end.
sil2017
Posts: 685
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2017 6:25 am

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by sil2017 »

exodusNH wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 12:02 pm
sil2017 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:58 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:51 am
homebuyer6426 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:50 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:36 am We might get there today but not yet as of this writing.
Around 12 minutes ago
We need to confirm the closing price.
if not today, it will reach there and IMO, we will fall more. I am guessing about 30 percent from the 52 week high

lately every rally has been a lot of selling and hardly any buyers
That can't be true. Every sale has a buyer at the other end.
Yes, but many more sellers than buyers. I have been watching the stock market with level 2 from TD ameritrade almost daily for the last month.

I believe the risky investors have been selling due to margin calls which adds to the downward trend.

I plan to add more to my S&P 500 and Total stock market index but every time I add, it keeps dropping. Just today I added 30 shares of VOO at $357 and it is still dropping....the other day I added 30 shares at $364 and it kept dropping
sil2017
Posts: 685
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2017 6:25 am

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by sil2017 »

H-Town wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 12:02 pm CNN Breaking News
Gosh, not surprise. I am not a short seller but I wish it would just drop 1500 to 2000 points for the DOW and get it over with.

Nasdaq has been in the bear market for quite some time. Many of the hot growth stocks are down over 80 percent.
GoldenFinch
Posts: 2728
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 10:34 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by GoldenFinch »

I am still numb from what happened to our finances from Y2K to 2010. No new bear markets will affect me. I’ve been scarred for life. :(
hicabob
Posts: 3796
Joined: Fri May 27, 2011 5:35 pm
Location: cruz

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by hicabob »

Here's Bloomberg with a couple interesting historical bear market factoids ...

"The S&P 500 is currently trading at 3,824. If the losses hold through the close of trading, the S&P 500 will enter its first bear market since the pandemic hit in February 2020.

The downturn is being led by consumer discretionary stocks, with the sector plunging 35% since the S&P 500’s January high. Communications services and information technology are also among the biggest decliners. The only S&P 500 sector to gain this year is energy, which is up 41% since the index hit its peak.

Since 1929, the S&P 500 has entered a bear market 17 times, including Friday, according to data from CFRA Research. The longest period lasted 998 days from September 1929 to June 1932, and the longest recent bear market was 929 days from March 2000 to October 2002, according to CFRA. The shortest was just 33 days from Feb. 19, 2020, to March 23, 2020, CFRA’s data show.

On average, bear markets result in a decline of roughly 38%, although since 1946 the average loss is less than 33%, according to CFRA. And they’ve become less frequent, with only five occurring since 1990, including this most recent one."
exodusNH
Posts: 10344
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:21 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by exodusNH »

sil2017 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 12:06 pm
exodusNH wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 12:02 pm
sil2017 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:58 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:51 am
homebuyer6426 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:50 am

Around 12 minutes ago
We need to confirm the closing price.
if not today, it will reach there and IMO, we will fall more. I am guessing about 30 percent from the 52 week high

lately every rally has been a lot of selling and hardly any buyers
That can't be true. Every sale has a buyer at the other end.
Yes, but many more sellers than buyers. I have been watching the stock market with level 2 from TD ameritrade almost daily for the last month.

I believe the risky investors have been selling due to margin calls which adds to the downward trend.

I plan to add more to my S&P 500 and Total stock market index but every time I add, it keeps dropping. Just today I added 30 shares of VOO at $357 and it is still dropping....the other day I added 30 shares at $364 and it kept dropping
Apologies for my ignorance, but what you're saying that that, while every share sale has a buyer, the number of individual sellers are much higher than buyers? Meaning that you've got deep-pocketed buyers sucking up large chunk of sales?
User avatar
burritoLover
Posts: 4097
Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:13 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by burritoLover »

Who cares if it is officially a bear market? It is an arbitrary designation. It doesn't mean it is predictive of anything going forward. Nor should you be making decisions based on this label.
Church Lady
Posts: 820
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:49 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by Church Lady »

He that loveth silver shall not be satisfied with silver; nor he that loveth abundance with increase: this is also vanity.
manuvns
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 1:30 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by manuvns »

the crash begins when 50% of traders get margin call .
Thanks!
sil2017
Posts: 685
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2017 6:25 am

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by sil2017 »

exodusNH wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 12:15 pm
sil2017 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 12:06 pm
exodusNH wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 12:02 pm
sil2017 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:58 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:51 am

We need to confirm the closing price.
if not today, it will reach there and IMO, we will fall more. I am guessing about 30 percent from the 52 week high

lately every rally has been a lot of selling and hardly any buyers
That can't be true. Every sale has a buyer at the other end.
Yes, but many more sellers than buyers. I have been watching the stock market with level 2 from TD ameritrade almost daily for the last month.

I believe the risky investors have been selling due to margin calls which adds to the downward trend.

I plan to add more to my S&P 500 and Total stock market index but every time I add, it keeps dropping. Just today I added 30 shares of VOO at $357 and it is still dropping....the other day I added 30 shares at $364 and it kept dropping
Apologies for my ignorance, but what you're saying that that, while every share sale has a buyer, the number of individual sellers are much higher than buyers? Meaning that you've got deep-pocketed buyers sucking up large chunk of sales?
I am not so sure about the deep-pocketed buyers sucking up large chuck of sales. It could be the hedge funds going long and short....but no one can time the market so you may have retailers like myself buying some each time it drops.....
exodusNH
Posts: 10344
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:21 pm

Re: We are now in a bear market?

Post by exodusNH »

sil2017 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 12:22 pm
exodusNH wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 12:15 pm
sil2017 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 12:06 pm
exodusNH wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 12:02 pm
sil2017 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:58 am

if not today, it will reach there and IMO, we will fall more. I am guessing about 30 percent from the 52 week high

lately every rally has been a lot of selling and hardly any buyers
That can't be true. Every sale has a buyer at the other end.
Yes, but many more sellers than buyers. I have been watching the stock market with level 2 from TD ameritrade almost daily for the last month.

I believe the risky investors have been selling due to margin calls which adds to the downward trend.

I plan to add more to my S&P 500 and Total stock market index but every time I add, it keeps dropping. Just today I added 30 shares of VOO at $357 and it is still dropping....the other day I added 30 shares at $364 and it kept dropping
Apologies for my ignorance, but what you're saying that that, while every share sale has a buyer, the number of individual sellers are much higher than buyers? Meaning that you've got deep-pocketed buyers sucking up large chunk of sales?
I am not so sure about the deep-pocketed buyers sucking up large chuck of sales. It could be the hedge funds going long and short....but no one can time the market so you may have retailers like myself buying some each time it drops.....
I'm confused, then, how there can be more sellers than buyers unless you have buyers buying x*sellers shares, where x > 1.
Post Reply