SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

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DonIce
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SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by DonIce »

SpaceX valuation has increased from $100B to $125B today.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/garage ... ue-sources

This amid the decline in stock markets this year and especially tech stocks. Very impressive.
Marseille07
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by Marseille07 »

Private valuation is quite different than public. A good example is Uber which was valued at 80B or w/e but their valuation came crashing down after IPO.
BernardShakey
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by BernardShakey »

Elon is kind of a 21st century Howard Hughes. One wonders how Elon and his businesses, burning so bright today, will fare in his later years. HH's last 10 years consisted of scandals, drug use, crazy schemes and other stuff you'd expect in Hollywood fiction --- not very pretty.
An important key to investing is having a well-calibrated sense of your future regret.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by JBTX »

BernardShakey wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 11:31 pm Elon is kind of a 21st century Howard Hughes. One wonders how Elon and his businesses, burning so bright today, will fare in his later years. HH's last 10 years consisted of scandals, drug use, crazy schemes and other stuff you'd expect in Hollywood fiction --- not very pretty.
Well him getting bogged down in Twitter probably isn’t the best use of his talents but Elon gonna Elon.
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DonIce
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by DonIce »

JBTX wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 11:39 pm
BernardShakey wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 11:31 pm Elon is kind of a 21st century Howard Hughes. One wonders how Elon and his businesses, burning so bright today, will fare in his later years. HH's last 10 years consisted of scandals, drug use, crazy schemes and other stuff you'd expect in Hollywood fiction --- not very pretty.
Well him getting bogged down in Twitter probably isn’t the best use of his talents but Elon gonna Elon.
Still hoping this whole twitter deal falls apart somehow. Elon staying focused on SpaceX (and not getting too mired in culture wars) seems like the best outcome.
JBTX
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by JBTX »

DonIce wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 12:13 am
JBTX wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 11:39 pm
BernardShakey wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 11:31 pm Elon is kind of a 21st century Howard Hughes. One wonders how Elon and his businesses, burning so bright today, will fare in his later years. HH's last 10 years consisted of scandals, drug use, crazy schemes and other stuff you'd expect in Hollywood fiction --- not very pretty.
Well him getting bogged down in Twitter probably isn’t the best use of his talents but Elon gonna Elon.
Still hoping this whole twitter deal falls apart somehow. Elon staying focused on SpaceX (and not getting too mired in culture wars) seems like the best outcome.
Elon responding to the Twitter president’s explanation of bot quantification methodology with a “poo” tweet wasn’t a good sign.
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drumboy256
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by drumboy256 »

I will take out a third mortgage to buy SpaceX when they go public.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by Whakamole »

JBTX wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 12:16 am
DonIce wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 12:13 am
JBTX wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 11:39 pm
BernardShakey wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 11:31 pm Elon is kind of a 21st century Howard Hughes. One wonders how Elon and his businesses, burning so bright today, will fare in his later years. HH's last 10 years consisted of scandals, drug use, crazy schemes and other stuff you'd expect in Hollywood fiction --- not very pretty.
Well him getting bogged down in Twitter probably isn’t the best use of his talents but Elon gonna Elon.
Still hoping this whole twitter deal falls apart somehow. Elon staying focused on SpaceX (and not getting too mired in culture wars) seems like the best outcome.
Elon responding to the Twitter president’s explanation of bot quantification methodology with a “poo” tweet wasn’t a good sign.
What does this have to do with SpaceX?

The Twitter thread was closed because it went off the rails. Maybe someone can start a new thread about Musk and we can keep this kind of conversation there instead of polluting investment threads.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by Valuethinker »

DonIce wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 10:50 pm SpaceX valuation has increased from $100B to $125B today.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/garage ... ue-sources

This amid the decline in stock markets this year and especially tech stocks. Very impressive.
I am not aware that there are good quoted comparables.

The reality with private funding is that it is "last round valuation" and that can be driven by negotiating positions of existing and new shareholders, value aspirations, amount being raised etc.

So if you watch the WeWork documentary you can see that in play. Massa Son (sp?), the Japanese head of Softbank, needed to deploy billions. So the value of WeWork was inflated to make the Softbank investment be of meaningful size. I think they took a 90% writedown on their investment in the end.

One tip. If the investors invest in any form of protected capital: either Loan Stock or shares with special rights (such as Liquidation Preference) then the true valuation is the level the special rights kick in - because they get paid out, first. And anti-dilution clauses are brutal if they kick in on a down-round - wipe out previous shareholders (nearly).
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by BernardShakey »

Whakamole wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 1:17 am
JBTX wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 12:16 am
DonIce wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 12:13 am
JBTX wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 11:39 pm
BernardShakey wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 11:31 pm Elon is kind of a 21st century Howard Hughes. One wonders how Elon and his businesses, burning so bright today, will fare in his later years. HH's last 10 years consisted of scandals, drug use, crazy schemes and other stuff you'd expect in Hollywood fiction --- not very pretty.
Well him getting bogged down in Twitter probably isn’t the best use of his talents but Elon gonna Elon.
Still hoping this whole twitter deal falls apart somehow. Elon staying focused on SpaceX (and not getting too mired in culture wars) seems like the best outcome.
Elon responding to the Twitter president’s explanation of bot quantification methodology with a “poo” tweet wasn’t a good sign.
What does this have to do with SpaceX?

The Twitter thread was closed because it went off the rails. Maybe someone can start a new thread about Musk and we can keep this kind of conversation there instead of polluting investment threads.
Conversation about Musk is highly relevant to most ANY discussion SpaceX --- talking about the valuation, investing in such a company as it goes public, comes with the real risks associated with its eccentric (being generous here) leader. Carry on with the investment discussion.
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smooth_rough
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by smooth_rough »

No way for public to buy stock yet?
GP813
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by GP813 »

SpaceX seems to have a very bright future in many areas but this valuation is worth more than Boeing($74B) or Lockheed Martin($117B) present market caps and that's ridiculous.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by Maverick3320 »

GP813 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 11:48 am SpaceX seems to have a very bright future in many areas but this valuation is worth more than Boeing($74B) or Lockheed Martin($117B) present market caps and that's ridiculous.
Interesting. I was just reading that SpaceX had launch capacity, and capabilities, that cost approximately 1/10th of what either of those two companies can do. If "space" is any kind of growth market - which many believe - SpaceX is extremely well-positioned to profit. NASA has started to shift away from Boeing toward SpaceX as well, I believe.

The defense market for Boeing and Lockheed is mixed, at best, given the US defense budget is dropping in real terms, even with everything going on in the world; on top of that, their defense projects are frequently going way over budget (read about the F35 or the Littoral Combat Ship, for starters). Foreign sales may increase given a likely drop in Russian foreign military sales due to reputational problems and sanctions, but even the US government is realizing that the large defense contractors may not be the answer going forward.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by impatientInv »

DonIce wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 10:50 pm SpaceX valuation has increased from $100B to $125B today.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/garage ... ue-sources

This amid the decline in stock markets this year and especially tech stocks. Very impressive.
Everything Elon touches has turned to gold. TSLA started 2020 at $70. It was close to $1400 earlier. That is 20x rise. Still over $700. Many stocks are still over valued.

If TSLA can be many time more valuable that Toyota, Daimler, GM, VW, then why not SpaceX over Boeing, Lockeed. Surely less SpaceX has less competition than Tesla.

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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by drk »

Valuethinker wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 7:13 am So if you watch the WeWork documentary you can see that in play. Massa Son (sp?), the Japanese head of Softbank, needed to deploy billions. So the value of WeWork was inflated to make the Softbank investment be of meaningful size. I think they took a 90% writedown on their investment in the end.
Not only that, but WeWork could not take a down-round after its botched IPO because Masa was raising the next Vision Fund, and the paper loss would have destroyed the first fund's performance. It's hard to line up big checks when your value prop is incinerating LP money.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by firebirdparts »

JBTX wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 12:16 am
DonIce wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 12:13 am
JBTX wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 11:39 pm
BernardShakey wrote: Tue May 17, 2022 11:31 pm Elon is kind of a 21st century Howard Hughes. One wonders how Elon and his businesses, burning so bright today, will fare in his later years. HH's last 10 years consisted of scandals, drug use, crazy schemes and other stuff you'd expect in Hollywood fiction --- not very pretty.
Well him getting bogged down in Twitter probably isn’t the best use of his talents but Elon gonna Elon.
Still hoping this whole twitter deal falls apart somehow. Elon staying focused on SpaceX (and not getting too mired in culture wars) seems like the best outcome.
Elon responding to the Twitter president’s explanation of bot quantification methodology with a “poo” tweet wasn’t a good sign.
Howard Hughes might well have done that too, if emojis had been invented. It's hard to say. But anyway, yeah, Elon Musk acts just like Elon Musk.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by NateH »

should be noted that the article claims 125B to be the highest value startup, not highest value COMPANY.

Cargill is the largest private US company and it has annual revenue greater than that value...
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by rosalee »

All this time i thought that my two favorite Private companies, GALLO wines and M&M chocolates, were also the biggest. Well, they are the most important to me.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by impatientInv »

IMO opinion SpaceX should have a higher valuation than TSLA.
impatientInv wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 2:25 pm Everything Elon touches has turned to gold. TSLA started 2020 at $70. It was close to $1400 earlier. That is 20x rise. Still over $700. Many stocks are still over valued.

If TSLA can be many time more valuable that Toyota, Daimler, GM, VW, then why not SpaceX over Boeing, Lockeed. Surely less SpaceX has less competition than Tesla.

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DonIce
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by DonIce »

NateH wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 4:13 pm should be noted that the article claims 125B to be the highest value startup, not highest value COMPANY.

Cargill is the largest private US company and it has annual revenue greater than that value...
I don't really know what would make spacex be considered a "startup". The company is over 20 years old, with over 12,000 employees.

Regarding Cargill... the tie between revenue and market cap is pretty tenuous, I guess it's hard to say what the valuation of Cargill would be if it had one. But its earnings were reportedly around $5B in 2021 and arbitrarily applying the present market average (trailing 12 months) P/E of 20 to that would put them at $100B, for example.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by Northern Flicker »

DonIce wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:41 am
NateH wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 4:13 pm should be noted that the article claims 125B to be the highest value startup, not highest value COMPANY.

Cargill is the largest private US company and it has annual revenue greater than that value...
I don't really know what would make spacex be considered a "startup". The company is over 20 years old, with over 12,000 employees.

Regarding Cargill... the tie between revenue and market cap is pretty tenuous, I guess it's hard to say what the valuation of Cargill would be if it had one.
Is SpaceX easier or harder to value than Cargill?
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DonIce
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by DonIce »

GP813 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 11:48 am SpaceX seems to have a very bright future in many areas but this valuation is worth more than Boeing($74B) or Lockheed Martin($117B) present market caps and that's ridiculous.
Lockheed makes the majority of its revenue from defense contracts. These can't grow much faster than military spending, which in turn can't grow much faster than GDP. Lockheed's valuation likely properly reflects these rather modest future growth prospects.

Boeing... is falling apart. Management has entirely lost touch with engineering and the company has majorly screwed up almost every single project it presently has ongoing, including of course 737 max, 787, 777, tankers, SLS, Starliner. And the solution they recently announced? Move HQ to DC so they can be closer to politicians to lobby them more. Boeing stock has been in decline for the last 3 years, but the underlying company has been in decline for coming up on 3 decades. If I wasn't a passive investor, Boeing would be high on my list of stocks to short.

Meanwhile, SpaceX has eaten the launch industry for lunch, crushing their main US competitor ULA (which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed). Besides dominating the global (outside China) launch market, SpaceX is poised to rake in higher revenue soon with Starlink internet, and potentially transform the space economy once again with Starship. SpaceX valuation takes into account its astronomical growth prospects.

I think it's entirely correct that SpaceX is valued higher than either Boeing or Lockheed.
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DonIce
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by DonIce »

Northern Flicker wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:50 am Is SpaceX easier or harder to value than Cargill?
Well... if I had to do the valuation, probably much harder. But SpaceX has an actual valuation that's just a few days old, which was done by professional investment firms and such. Could it be way off? Sure, plenty of examples of such valuations being wrong. But in the absence of a better way to value it, I'll take the $125B number.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by adestefan »

SpaceX is successful inspite of Musk. Their best asset is Gwynne Shotwell who has been the true leader of SpaceX.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by TomatoTomahto »

DonIce wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:52 am Meanwhile, SpaceX has eaten the launch industry for lunch, crushing their main US competitor ULA (which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed). Besides dominating the global (outside China) launch market, SpaceX is poised to rake in higher revenue soon with Starlink internet, and potentially transform the space economy once again with Starship. SpaceX valuation takes into account its astronomical growth prospects.

I think it's entirely correct that SpaceX is valued higher than either Boeing or Lockheed.
I have had Starlink for only a few months, and they just raised my monthly cost (from $99 to $110). They also are making it portable for an additional $25/month. That’s a steady $1320 per year (or $1620 for portable) which will pay back the loss on the router soon enough. After that, it’s all gravy.

I won’t use the portability feature, but I’m willing to continue paying the monthly subscription for what is an essential utility.

I am less than enthused about Elon lately, but his products hit it out of the park. I love my Tesla and I appreciate my Starlink.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

Post by Inframan4712 »

adestefan wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 6:25 am SpaceX is successful inspite of Musk. Their best asset is Gwynne Shotwell who has been the true leader of SpaceX.
Shotwell is worth her weight in gold. But Musk is the reason SpaceX has innovated. He’s relentless. Sure, he has great engineers. But he’s DRIVEN, he’ll axe a failing solution and pivot to a better one. He’s done this repeatedly with Falcon 9, Heavy, Starship and Starlink. I can think of no other company as nimble in tech, much less aerospace. He fully understands rocket science, unlike Boeing management.

SpaceX is like Skunkworks on designer steroids.
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Re: SpaceX now most valuable private US company ever - $125 billion

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