madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their April 2009 returns, 2009 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2006 (10 years 4 months, 8 years 4 months, 5 years 4 months, 3 years 4 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                  CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Apr     YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2009    2009    2006    2004    2001    1999
Hot Hands         5.80%  -2.98% -10.41%   1.82%   6.05%   9.18%
Sheltered Sam    14.17%  -3.26%  -7.90%  -0.01%   1.33%   2.85%
VFINX             9.55%  -2.50%  -8.33%  -2.61%  -3.18%  -1.66%
                  
s&d              12.06%  -2.21%  -4.77%   1.64%   2.61%   3.95%
Newsletter G      9.38%   2.60%  -5.67%   1.12%   0.90%   5.67%
3 fund            8.96%  -1.05%  -4.11%   1.20%   0.82%   1.72%
Newsletter G-IND 10.57%   2.50%  -6.73%   0.43%   0.74%   0.84%
LS G              9.21%  -1.44%  -6.23%  -0.55%  -0.52%   0.58%
                  
Wellington        5.87%  -1.64%  -1.47%   2.33%   3.43%   4.18%
coffeehouse       9.21%  -2.49%  -2.46%   2.04%   3.42%   4.25%
STAR              6.92%   0.55%  -3.24%   1.36%   2.15%   3.45%
LS MG             7.00%  -0.80%  -3.53%   0.67%   1.00%   1.83%
Newsletter CG     7.85%   1.70%  -4.78%   0.81%   0.99%   3.88%
                  
Wellesley         3.55%  -3.38%   0.71%   2.48%   4.16%   4.42%
LS CG             5.25%   0.28%  -1.37%   1.41%   2.09%   2.73%
Newsletter Inc    4.99%   0.90%  -3.79%   0.23%   1.57%   1.84%
EDIT: updated with newsletter data. 5/5/2009
Last edited by madsinger on Tue May 05, 2009 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

I guess I wasn't paying too much attention in April. It was an even stronger month than March, and the portfolios just don't look that bad anymore, year to date. All portfolios were up sharply, and the YTD losses are in the low single digits, and a couple of portfolios (STAR and Life Strategy Conservative Growth) even positive. It's been a while!

Year to date, REITs are still down over -10%, but were up over 30% in April. Any portfolio holding these reflects these two facts...a very strong April, but still lagging YTD. Small caps were up almost 20%, and Emerging Markets over 16%.

Positive sure is fun, but I think I'd still be happier with a little less volatility. But, I guess it's this volatility (some call it "risk") that causes some investors to seek the "safety" of fixed income investments, and allows us "smart" investors (or, maybe "lucky", or "naive", or...) to profit in the long term.

I'm hoping you all have benefited from the recent upswing.

-Brad.
jharri71
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Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 4:18 pm

Post by jharri71 »

Thanks for getting this report together. I consolidated all my taxable accounts (prudential 20/20 fund with high fees) and 2 different trading accounts into the STAR fund in January . I know people will say STAR doesn't belong in taxable, but I am in a low tax bracket (15%) and I now have low fees. It's nice to see STAR is up for the year.
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paulob
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Post by paulob »

Brad,
Thanks for the report.

Our IRA's went positive this month (the 401-k's went positive in March).

YTD: 401-k 7.7%, IRA 3.1% (both are 100% equity at this time). The 401-k was in a gold fund and I switched out in mid April.

I also started a couple of "Shadow Stock" portfolios this year:
our IRA is up 3.3% (also included in the overall IRA results above) and
my son's IRA Shadow stock strategy is up 13.3%.

Both of these stock portfolios were negative until April.
Paul
statsguy
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Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:38 pm

Post by statsguy »

Brad... here are the numbers for the newsletter portfolios

Code: Select all

April   YTD
 9.4%   2.6% Newsletter G 
10.6%   2.5% Newsletter G-IND
 7.9%   1.7% Newsletter CG
 5.0%   0.9% Newsletter I
stats

PS... the usual kudoes for producing this information.
bschultheis
Posts: 206
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2007 10:15 am

Post by bschultheis »

Hi Brad,

Thanks so much for posting those results. Always appreciated!

Bill
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Bounca
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Post by Bounca »

Checking in…..

IRA (approx 70/30 AA)
Month 9.19 %

20% BND
5% BSV
5% TIP
5% WTMIX (Westcore Microcap)
5% DLS
10% VEA
5% VWO
5% VNQ
5% VBR
35% VTI

ROTH (approx 75/25 AA)
Month 10.23 %

Roughly 55% EXHAX (Manning and Napier Pro Blend Max)
Roughly 45% EXBAX (Manning and Napier Pro Blend Moderate)
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

I have updated the chart with the Newsletter data provided by statsguy. Thanks, stats!

The newsletter portfolios are all positive YTD, and leading their respective categories YTD (but mostly trailing in the 3 year returns...I've been told that these portfolios tend to be more stock heavy than the categories I've assigned them to, so this probably contributes to this outcome). I suspect a careful avoidance of REITs and funds holding distressed financial companies must be a big factor there.

Thanks to all who post things here. It's more "fun" when the market is up to post this report, but I think it may be more useful when the market is down!

-Brad.
statsguy
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Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:38 pm

Post by statsguy »

madsinger wrote:I have updated the chart with the Newsletter data provided by statsguy. Thanks, stats!

The newsletter portfolios are all positive YTD, and leading their respective categories YTD (but mostly trailing in the 3 year returns...I've been told that these portfolios tend to be more stock heavy than the categories I've assigned them to, so this probably contributes to this outcome). I suspect a careful avoidance of REITs and funds holding distressed financial companies must be a big factor there.

Thanks to all who post things here. It's more "fun" when the market is up to post this report, but I think it may be more useful when the market is down!

-Brad.
Brad... thanks again, I enjoy reading the monthly post... and it is also more fun to read the post when the market is up.

For what it is worth.... Dan Wiener's portfolios should have had better returns. He bailed on Emerging Markets last October at just about the worst time and now that EM has corrected about 40% to the plus side he is saying he thinks it is time to nibble at EM again. He put the proceeds of EM into Dividend Growth which has done OK... while Dividend Growth may have been reasonable choice from a risk perspective the returns were much better in EM. Personally, we are buy-and-hold investors and did not follow that advice but many of the newsletter subscribers did follow the advice and are now upset at the missed returns.

As to the bonds alllocations... here are the bond allocations for each portfolio. You can decide if the portfolios are misplaced in your post.

Growth Model 6%
Growth Index Model 10%
Conservative Growth Model 22%
Income Model 50%

From my memory (so I could be wrong), I do not recall Dan Wiener adding or subtracting any money from the bond allocation in the last two years. I really only pay attention to the Growth model and so could easily have missed a change in bond allocation in one of the other models. He did move from GNMA bond fund to Short-term bond fund last year... but the allocation to bonds was not affected.

Near the end of the last recession he bought VCSVX (Convertible Securities) and did quite well. Recently he has been praising High Yield so maybe he is thinking of adding that fund to the model. I realize neither of those is a true bond fund but rather than him adding more to his short-term or intermediate term bond fund holdings I could see him adding either Convertible Securities or High Yield. That is just my speculation though.

Stats
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stratton
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Location: Puget Sound

Post by stratton »

Love that Wellesley. It's wonderful for small inherited IRA's with RMDs.

Paul
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