New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

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watchnerd
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by watchnerd »

mbasherp wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:57 am
Alex Frakt wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:21 am
mbasherp wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 9:24 am I very humbly want to add a bit of perspective. A community like Bogleheads could not and would not have existed prior to "Common Stocks as Long Term Investments" - published in 1924. Bonds were the way, and stocks were risky - even surely similar to tulips to some. But as the world evolved, an understanding of what stocks "really" were changed as well. A few decades later we had modern portfolio theory and you'd be questioned if you didn't include common stocks in a portfolio.

It is not impossible that all of the issues mentioned with crypto are transitory growing pains on the way to a truly fundamental change in the financial world. Looking deeply at the DeFi space in particular, it looks a lot like the stock market was a century ago, before it was "safe."
No it doesn't. Stock were certainly much riskier prior to the regulatory reforms of the 1930s. But, unlike today, buyers generally demanded compensation for taking on these risks in the form of dividend yields much greater than bond yields. In fact, many market observers used dividend yields as a bubble predictor, getting out or shorting equity markets when yields dropped below certain benchmarks, either absolute or relative to bond yields.

And of course stock ownership gives you rights, albeit attenuated for minor shareholders, in the governance of the company as well as a claim on any assets from the sale or liquidation of the underlying company.

None of this applies to crypto investing. They have no yields and ownership gives you no rights.
Alex, once again thank you for what you do. I’ll just point out humbly, once again, that your statement is not correct. Another user already iterated this well before me in the case of Aave. It is not the only one. Not all crypto is Dogecoin or Bitcoin - many of these do indeed confer ownership, governance rights, and offer yields.

I am not some manic crypto bull - but I feel it is vitally important to learn about what is emerging, to identify misinformation, and make informed choices. Bogleheads has always been the best place I’ve found for that. So thanks again. It just appears that this might be a blind spot for some of us.
The no yields assertion is actually not accurate for stakeable crypto assets -- one can earn yield.

I'm not asking for a reversal of forum policy, but there is a lot of misunderstanding of the differences amongst various types of crypto assets.

It's not all Bitcoin as store of value or dog money meme coins.
Last edited by watchnerd on Wed May 19, 2021 11:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Thesaints »

Not that I have the slightest interest in crypto as an investment, but gold ain't that regulated either. Maybe it should be banned too.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by RXfiles »

chw wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 2:36 am I also support this action, given the basic investing principles of this board, and the highly speculative nature of crypto investing. To continue the discussions on this board regarding crypto (which seem to be spreading like weeds), could seem to legitimize these investments on this forum.
It certainly did. I wonder how many people rebalanced to the 2% market cap only to see half of it vanish overnight. I definitely considered it. Luckily I got off with just messing around with a couple hundred dollars. Lesson learned again.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Thesaints »

RXfiles wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:43 am It certainly did. I wonder how many people rebalanced to the 2% market cap
Which market, exactly ?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Paradise »

burritoLover wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:06 am I don't own crypto but it is legitimately something you can invest in - it isn't a Bernie Madoff pyramid scheme. It is highly volatile and you could lose all your money but do you also want to ban discussion about trading individual stocks - something that Bogle would discourage people against and which you can also lose all your money? And this idea that your crypto holdings can be hacked - the same thing can happen to any investment at Vanguard or any other brokerage.
Not everyone lost money with Madoff. The early investors made a great deal as he was showing returns well above average.

This sounds familiar... no?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by tuningfork »

If it hasn't already been mentioned, I suggest the mods consider whether Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) should be included in this policy and threads about them locked. NFTs are transacted on the Etherium blockchain, and I have seen much confusion at various places about whether you're actually buying anything (physical, digital, IP, etc.) other than the NFT token itself if you buy an NFT. In my mind they're in the same bucket as cryptocurrency.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by RXfiles »

Thesaints wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:46 am
RXfiles wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:43 am It certainly did. I wonder how many people rebalanced to the 2% market cap
Which market, exactly ?
I have no idea. I kept reading so many people saying cryptos were at 2% of a cap weighted portfolio now. and since they carried weight a boglehead should hold it. I don't understand it but it was every where on here.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Thesaints »

tuningfork wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:48 am If it hasn't already been mentioned, I suggest the mods consider whether Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) should be included in this policy and threads about them locked. NFTs are transacted on the Etherium blockchain, and I have seen much confusion at various places about whether you're actually buying anything (physical, digital, IP, etc.) other than the NFT token itself if you buy an NFT. In my mind they're in the same bucket as cryptocurrency.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by watchnerd »

mbasherp wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:47 am
May I point out that my post (which you replied to) was primarily about the power of the DeFi space? There is a LOT more going on than people buying and selling Bitcoin. This isn’t just “coins” in a transactional sense. Holding some of these makes you stakeholder, allowing protocol governance decisions, sometimes entitling your to a yield, etc. VERY similar to a stock. Are you aware of all these things?
Correct.

I have voted on project direction using DAO for crypto assets I hold and earned yield by staking assets.

But given the demographics of the board, I can understand why the community is viewing the entire topic with an abundance of caution.

The trade off may be the aging of the board demographics over time if an asset that is appealing to younger investors simply is forbidden to discuss.

Those young investors will go elsewhere to get their information on crypto, and that information may be worse or more dangerous.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Thesaints »

RXfiles wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:48 am I have no idea. I kept reading so many people saying cryptos were at 2% of a cap weighted portfolio now. and since they carried weight a boglehead should hold it. I don't understand it but it was every where on here.
..but you considered putting 2% of your capital in BTC based on that nonetheless ?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by KlangFool »

TN_Boy wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:12 am
KlangFool wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:49 am Mods,

I filed patents on blockchain application. I support the forum policy. It is beyond the scope of the forum. In order to understand the cryptocurrency and guessing which one may or may not survive and thrive, it required substantial technical background and that may still be not enough.

KlangFool
I don't think a substantial technical background is required to understand crypto currency. It helps one understand why bitcoin (and similar blockchain implementations) are so terrible for everyday transactions, but understanding the broader implications of cryptocurrencies is not, I think, limited to techies. Plus, the superior technical solution does not always triumph.
TN_Boy,

<<I don't think a substantial technical background is required to understand crypto currency.>>

I disagreed. If cryptocurrency X will collapse due to technical limitation Y as soon as it reaches size Z, you would not invest on cryptocurrency X.

<<understanding the broader implications of cryptocurrencies is not,>>

Which is irrelevant when a person is investing on a specific cryptocurrency. Many search engines show up during DotCom burst. There was a future for search engine. But, a person gambling/investing on the wrong search engine will lose money.

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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Elric »

RXfiles wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:43 am
chw wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 2:36 am ... To continue the discussions on this board regarding crypto (which seem to be spreading like weeds), could seem to legitimize these investments on this forum.
... I wonder how many people rebalanced to the 2% market cap only to see half of it vanish overnight. I definitely considered it. Luckily I got off with just messing around with a couple hundred dollars. Lesson learned again.
In 1987, the S&P 500 lost 20.47% of its value in a single day. I was invested in the market at that time. This did not mean that investing in the stock market was illegitimate. Nor would it have been a good take-away to stop investing in the market.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by bogledogle »

I detest the Crypto Mania that occurred in the last few weeks almost as much as this policy banning any discussion of it. Crypto threads on this forum help see clearly how dumb cryptocurrencies are, and probably the reason why I don't own any.

Bad ideas should be ridiculed, not banned.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Samosa22 »

This is disappointing. I learned a lot by reading the back-and-forth between crypto-skeptics and crypto-proponents, and then made my own investing decisions. Mods, please consider allowing at least one Crypto Megathread.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by LilyFleur »

LadyGeek wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 6:04 am Does anyone not understand the policy? I'm concerned that those without an investing background may not understand "negative expected long term return". Or, perhaps why "tulip bulbs" are listed.

As noted by Alex:
Alex Frakt wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 1:46 am Note that the exact wording may change as we receive further feedback, but the basic message will not.
If the terminology is unclear, please suggest better wording.

To be clear, we're not crowd-sourcing our policy. It is only to ensure that the terminology of this one change is clearly understood.
I liked the reference to tulip bulbs. For those who may not be familiar with the concept:
From: A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel In Holland during the early 1600's it was not stocks, but tulip bulbs that made investors rich beyond their wildest dreams, ruined thousands when the Tulip Bubble burst, and threw the national economy into major depression.

http://www.humanitiesresource.com/baroq ... epression.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by RXfiles »

Thesaints wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:50 am
RXfiles wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:48 am I have no idea. I kept reading so many people saying cryptos were at 2% of a cap weighted portfolio now. and since they carried weight a boglehead should hold it. I don't understand it but it was every where on here.
..but you considered putting 2% of your capital in BTC based on that nonetheless ?
I gave it the thought because I read it on here. Doesn't mean I was actually going to do it. That's what I feel like the mods are getting at. for the past couple months like 3 or more out of the top 10 posts were about cryptos and a whole lot of the people were advocating for them. I get on here everyday and read the top few posts at least. Yeah I know tune the noise out but this forum did that in a way until all these crypto posts.
Last edited by RXfiles on Wed May 19, 2021 11:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Elric »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:50 am
mbasherp wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:47 am
May I point out that my post (which you replied to) was primarily about the power of the DeFi space? There is a LOT more going on than people buying and selling Bitcoin. This isn’t just “coins” in a transactional sense. Holding some of these makes you stakeholder, allowing protocol governance decisions, sometimes entitling your to a yield, etc. VERY similar to a stock. Are you aware of all these things?
Correct.
I have voted on project direction using DAO for crypto assets I hold and earned yield by staking assets.
But given the demographics of the board, I can understand why the community is viewing the entire topic with an abundance of caution.
The trade off may be the aging of the board demographics over time if an asset that is appealing to younger investors simply is forbidden to discuss.
Those young investors will go elsewhere to get their information on crypto, and that information may be worse or more dangerous.
+1 Agree on all points. Douglas Adams, author of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, had this to say on the more general topic:
“I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:

1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.”
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Flashes1 »

I am generally for freedom of posting about anything legal, but I agree this forum is not the place to discuss Crypto and even specific momentum stocks like GME. I am speaking from the heart because I'm one of those unsophisticated investors who got caught up in the GME mania a couple months ago and it almost cost me my career (due to the nature of my job, I am prohibited from trading individual stocks without getting advance approval---which of course I didn't get because I got caught up in the mania and I didn't think anyone would find out---well guess what? They did)! Fortunately, I was spared...but it could have easily gone sideways.

And guess what? A lot of the GME mania I was exposed to was right here! And I'm certainly NOT blaming Bogleheads for my idiocy--- but I bet I got 50% of the GME exposure here and another 40% at the Yahoo Finance app and 10% at Moneywatch.com-----I've since stopped clicking on Crypto articles there and now I hopefully won't have to see them here.

Or if you want to keep freedom of discussion - create a new "subforum" for "Alternative and momentum Investing" and that way folks who are looking for such information can go there----and conversely, it would be easy to avoid if you wanted.
Last edited by Flashes1 on Wed May 19, 2021 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by watchnerd »

RXfiles wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:48 am
Thesaints wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:46 am
RXfiles wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:43 am It certainly did. I wonder how many people rebalanced to the 2% market cap
Which market, exactly ?
I have no idea. I kept reading so many people saying cryptos were at 2% of a cap weighted portfolio now. and since they carried weight a boglehead should hold it. I don't understand it but it was every where on here.
I hold crypto at market weight relative to stocks and bonds in my Risk Portfolio.

I do little to no rebalancing -- if the position declines by 25% in relative market weight, as it has since I started it, so be it.

Quarterly I check the market weights of the Global Market Portfolio as its data is update:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... g_/pubhtml#

I check just to make sure things haven't drifted too far out of whack due to new contributions, but so far, I haven't needed to rebalance anything.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by alpenglow »

Elric wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:55 am
watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:50 am
mbasherp wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:47 am
May I point out that my post (which you replied to) was primarily about the power of the DeFi space? There is a LOT more going on than people buying and selling Bitcoin. This isn’t just “coins” in a transactional sense. Holding some of these makes you stakeholder, allowing protocol governance decisions, sometimes entitling your to a yield, etc. VERY similar to a stock. Are you aware of all these things?
Correct.
I have voted on project direction using DAO for crypto assets I hold and earned yield by staking assets.
But given the demographics of the board, I can understand why the community is viewing the entire topic with an abundance of caution.
The trade off may be the aging of the board demographics over time if an asset that is appealing to younger investors simply is forbidden to discuss.
Those young investors will go elsewhere to get their information on crypto, and that information may be worse or more dangerous.
+1 Agree on all points. Douglas Adams, author of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, had this to say on the more general topic:
“I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:

1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.”
Thanks for the quote. I'm firmly in stage 3 and I know it!
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by RickBoglehead »

gwe67 wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:38 am Surely you own Tesla in some form. As of a few weeks ago, Tesla held $2.5 billion in bitcoin (I guess it's $1.98 billion now). Many companies accept crapto as payment and would have at least a nominal stockpile. So the vast majority of index investors do indirectly have a stake in crapto at least in some small way, but we just can't talk about it in this forum (which is a good thing).
I consider it unfortunate that funds that I own may own companies that choose to invest in Crypto. Further, I find it very unfortunate that any fund I own owns Telsa, because I think Musk is too unpredictable in his behavior.

If I went through all the ownership of companies across my funds, I'd probably have to dump all of them. :oops:

I see this token discussion, I have a bunch of NFC tokens, are they worth more now? :twisted:
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Noobvestor »

I'm just writing to express my respect (and sympathy) for the forum mods, who do a great job at making these kinds of tough decisions as well as enforcing the rules as they evolve, which I know is no easy task. FWIW I think the reasoning for this call is very sound. Also: what perfect timing! I have to wonder if this massive crypto drop today had anything to do with it, but either way: makes sense and thank you, Alex and other mods.

:sharebeer
Last edited by Noobvestor on Wed May 19, 2021 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by skor99 »

Elric wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:51 am
RXfiles wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:43 am
chw wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 2:36 am ... To continue the discussions on this board regarding crypto (which seem to be spreading like weeds), could seem to legitimize these investments on this forum.
... I wonder how many people rebalanced to the 2% market cap only to see half of it vanish overnight. I definitely considered it. Luckily I got off with just messing around with a couple hundred dollars. Lesson learned again.
In 1987, the S&P 500 lost 20.47% of its value in a single day. I was invested in the market at that time. This did not mean that investing in the stock market was illegitimate. Nor would it have been a good take-away to stop investing in the market.
Companies generate revenue and profits and pay dividends. Does BitCoin do any of that ? What is stopping any Government declaring crypto illegal when there is enough evidence of it being used more and more in criminal activities such as in ransom ware etc ?
Stocks and crypto comparison is not just apples to oranges , it is melons to grapes
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Elric »

bogledogle wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:52 am Bad ideas should be ridiculed, not banned.
Exactly. Let's hear the perspectives of the Bogleheads community on these topics, which I have found to be informative. Yes, there are junk posts as well, but Bogleheads are adults and can apply their own filters and decide which views have merit.

The Advisory Board certainly has the authority to implement this new policy, but they also have the authority to reconsider, and I hope that they will be willing to step up and do so.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by wootwoot »

This policy feel like a "bury our head in the sand" type of move. While crypto has been erratic that will change over time. There's a real lack of understanding across the forum regarding what crypto is and what it isn't. There is real value to crypto and it is a new asset class, what that value should be is unknown at this time but will stabilize as time goes on. I'm sorry to see how regressive the forum is being in regards to this asset class, the truth is that if you hold US indexes you likely have some crypto exposure already through Tesla or Coinbase. Rather than do away with these posts how about creating a sub-forum for crypto and other non-bogleheadish threads. Hedgefundies excellent adventure which uses leveraged ETFs in a very non-boglehead/speculative fashion was A OK as well as many threads speculating on GME and the oil crash in April of 2020. How is speculating on crypto any different other than the larger volume of posts? Also in full disclosure I don't own any crypto but this new policy just doesn't seem consistent with posts on other speculative asset classes.
Last edited by wootwoot on Wed May 19, 2021 12:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by ResearchMed »

gwe67 wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:38 am
ResearchMed wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 10:31 am

[*] We have no crypto, unless there is some hidden within some mutual funds or ETFs, which is a slightly disturbing thought...

RM
Surely you own Tesla in some form. As of a few weeks ago, Tesla held $2.5 billion in bitcoin (I guess it's $1.98 billion now). Many companies accept crapto as payment and would have at least a nominal stockpile. So the vast majority of index investors do indirectly have a stake in crapto at least in some small way, but we just can't talk about it in this forum (which is a good thing).
Point well taken, and thanks.

I've made an edit to my post above to reflect this.
That was a :oops: for me...

RM
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by l1am »

This is way too strict. I invested in Ethereum as a long term investment in 2017. Although the market may be extremely volatile, it's still a long term investment into the creativity space above decentralized smart contracts.

It should be limited to short term speculative plays and discussions, not an outright prohibition of the topic.

Is blockchain and decentralization allowed as an investing topic?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Thesaints »

Crypto should be more befittingly spelled as "crapto", however the moderators' move is problematic at best: based on the very same considerations, they should ban a lot more things on the forum.
It is already bad enough that one cannot discuss upcoming tax law changes (their consequences, not their merit !), which would allow lessening their impact.
Last edited by Thesaints on Wed May 19, 2021 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by watchnerd »

Elric wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:55 am
+1 Agree on all points. Douglas Adams, author of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, had this to say on the more general topic:
“I've come up with a set of rules that describe our reactions to technologies:

1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that's invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you're thirty-five is against the natural order of things.”
I might be an exception to the rule at age 51, but then again, I work for a large megacorp cloud provider and spent 15 years in VC-backed open source startups. So while I'm still learning crypto, I have a good starting background.

Interestingly, Mark Cuban is investing in Ethereum and he's 62.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Alex Frakt »

GR8FUL-D wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:41 am While I have no doubt that the decision by site admins and mods to ban further crypto threads and posts was carefully considered, the timing of this announcement is almost too coincidental to believe.
The moderators posted a thread titled "Should we prohibit cryptocurrency discussions" on their private forum on May 13. LadyGeek asked for my feedback on the 15th. I moved the thread to the Advisory Board that night because it involves a potential forum policy change. There was general agreement on the idea as Advisory Board members logged in over the next day. Since then we were working on wording.

At no time during this discussion did anyone refer to changes in current valuations of crypto tokens. I was not even aware there was a drop until reading the responses on this thread.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by watchnerd »

wootwoot wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:02 pm This policy feel like a "bury our head in the sand" type of move. While crypto has been erratic that will change over time. There's a real lack of understanding across the forum regarding what crypto is and what it isn't.
It's an incredibly conservative move but this is an incredibly (financially) conservative forum.

I've been here 14 years and remember when ETFs were considered a bit sketchy and Bogle himself was skeptical.

But ETFs have matured and become mainstream.

Perhaps 5-10 years from now, if the crypto space matures, it will be allowed to be discussed here.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by secondopinion »

Elric wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:31 am p.s.: Tulip bulbs have underlying value. They continue to be sold today, centuries after the tulip bubble. There was a bubble, where pricing went well beyond their underlying value, but the same has been true for most bubbles, such as the real estate bubble a few years back, and many believe, rightly or wrongly, that this is currently the case for many stocks in total stock funds and the S&P 500. If they are correct, then those holding such investments can only lose unless they find a "greater fool." Nevertheless, like crypto, discussion of such investments should be permitted on this forum.
A real estate/stock/bond bubble is often far milder than what was seen with tulips. With the former, all three can generate earnings as to the investor (whether it is realized or not). As far as gold, it has an history value that is thousands of years old. Other commodities are used a lot in industry, so there is not exactly a greater fool in this case (in theory, they are supposed to hedge inflation); question as to their real role in a portfolio is a discussion topic.

These days, tulips would be an unusual but a permitted topic. Back during the tulip bubble, it would be a banned topic as people wanted to discuss how much of their portfolio should be in tulips; and people would complain about it. The nature of the rules is to prevent discussion of highly speculative assets with no apparent value that are currently undergoing radical movements (yes, tulips have a value and currently are relatively stable; but back then the radical movements alone would be a reason to ban it at that time). Cryptocurrency fall into this boat. If, say after 10 years, that it does stabilize and exist meaningfully, then it probably be included again as a topic. Until then, what can be done? I agree that some discussion might be warranted, but there is too much tangential discussion.

For me, I am personally more interested in analyzing the roles of options in risk management, bond duration in investment timeframes, stock metrics as to constructing custom stock portfolios, etc. I think there should be more investing theory; I agree with you that the two fund discussions (and the like) are terribly boring and sometimes contentious.
Impatience wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:20 am
jibantik wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:18 am
I don't see how we can logically ban crypto but not precious metal discussion.
That was my first thought as well. How about non dividend paying stocks while we’re at it?
Precious metals are used a lot and have long histories of use; they are also relatively stable. Cryptocurrencies do not have these features. Once they do, I think the ban will be removed.

Non-dividend paying stocks do generate retained earnings; you just have to sell some stocks to get them. Instant dividend.
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Kirehej »

Thank god. Cryptos in their current form are the most obvious scam in human history. Opening this forum, being an admirer of John C Bogle, just to see that 20-40% of all threads are infested with discussions about something that is not even an asset was extremely disapponting.

All the technical arguments of the disciples just blew past the stage at which you determine what kind of asset it is. You own nothing but hope that enough other people have hope, that other people have hope, that other people have hope,.... that you can unload the nothingness on them when the price is HIGHER THAN WHEN YOU BOUGHT IT. That's all folks.

It's so obvious that people are pushing it since it's in their best interest and they want to unload it in the future on some single mom who was hypnotized by these snake oil salesmen pumpers so that their taxes can be paid in an actual currency (DING DING IT'S A SCAM). It's all FOMO mixed with evil intent.

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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by skor99 »

This should have been done much earlier to serve as a warning to those who bought BitCoin at 60K and Dogecoin at who knows what? Is it just a coincidence that this policy is coming when the mania is hopefully unravelling?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by secondopinion »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:15 pm
wootwoot wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:02 pm This policy feel like a "bury our head in the sand" type of move. While crypto has been erratic that will change over time. There's a real lack of understanding across the forum regarding what crypto is and what it isn't.
It's an incredibly conservative move but this is an incredibly (financially) conservative forum.

I've been here 14 years and remember when ETFs were considered a bit sketchy and Bogle himself was skeptical.

But ETFs have matured and become mainstream.

Perhaps 5-10 years from now, if the crypto space matures, it will be allowed to be discussed here.
Agreed.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by AerialWombat »

The direction that this thread has gone this morning seems to perfectly illustrate the need for this policy change.

Meta thread. So Bogle. (That's a doge meme reference, for the unitiated).
This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by ResearchMed »

Thesaints wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:50 am
RXfiles wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:48 am I have no idea. I kept reading so many people saying cryptos were at 2% of a cap weighted portfolio now. and since they carried weight a boglehead should hold it. I don't understand it but it was every where on here.
..but you considered putting 2% of your capital in BTC based on that nonetheless ?
This argument doesn't go very far.

There are many currently available "choices" in "the market".

I can hold 2% (+/-) of ANY of them, without moving the needle if disaster strikes (assuming no leverage, etc.).

But I can't hold 2% of ALL of "those assorted thingies that I don't think are going to be useful... or may be quite detrimental"...

RM
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by rebellovw »

Great move by bogleheads.org. I fully support it - and do not see crypto as being a fit where common sense investing is the mantra.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by GR8FUL-D »

Alex Frakt wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:14 pm
GR8FUL-D wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:41 am While I have no doubt that the decision by site admins and mods to ban further crypto threads and posts was carefully considered, the timing of this announcement is almost too coincidental to believe.
The moderators posted a thread titled "Should we prohibit cryptocurrency discussions" on their private forum on May 13. LadyGeek asked for my feedback on the 15th. I moved the thread to the Advisory Board that night because it involves a potential forum policy change. There was general agreement on the idea as Advisory Board members logged in over the next day. Since then we were working on wording.

At no time during this discussion did anyone refer to changes in current valuations of crypto tokens. I was not even aware there was a drop until reading the responses on this thread.
Just to be clear, I was not at all suggesting that you and others decided to ban crypto as a knee-jerk reaction to what's gone on in the last 24 hours--as I wrote, "I have no doubt this decision...was carefully considered". I simply meant that the timing was shocking / (insert adjective here). Apologies if my wording was misconstrued.
Last edited by GR8FUL-D on Wed May 19, 2021 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by skor99 »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:15 pm
wootwoot wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:02 pm This policy feel like a "bury our head in the sand" type of move. While crypto has been erratic that will change over time. There's a real lack of understanding across the forum regarding what crypto is and what it isn't.
It's an incredibly conservative move but this is an incredibly (financially) conservative forum.

I've been here 14 years and remember when ETFs were considered a bit sketchy and Bogle himself was skeptical.

But ETFs have matured and become mainstream.

Perhaps 5-10 years from now, if the crypto space matures, it will be allowed to be discussed here.
Matures to what ? How will Bitcoin generate any wealth except for the greater fool theory ? I am all for the underlying technology like Blockchain etc but how does Bitcoin by itself do anything except to act as an alternative currency that maybe provides some anonymity and hence the potential for nefarious uses and therefore may be banned in the future
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Thesaints »

secondopinion wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:16 pm ... As far as gold, it has an history value that is thousands of years old.
Yes, but that long history ended on August 15th, 1971.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Elric »

secondopinion wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:16 pm A real estate/stock/bond bubble is often far milder than what was seen with tulips. With the former, all three can generate earnings as to the investor (whether it is realized or not).
This is not my area of expertise, but my understanding is that one can currently lend out ether and earn a return in that manner. Is that not correct?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Valuethinker »

GR8FUL-D wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:41 am
On the first page of this thread member alpine/boglehead wrote "Adult" "investors" "discussing" cryptocurrencies have other forums where they can do that." Really? Where?? I'd love to hear recommendations for specific forums where interested bogleheads can migrate to for reasonable & rational discussion of crypto. There's wayyyy too much noise and scamming @ Reddit and Twitter for me to wade through. Where can I go for moderated crypto discussion similar to what was going on here??
You've answered your own question, in a way?

The nature of these unacceptable forums, might tell you something about "the investment"?

If it was a "reasonable and rational investment" don't you think that other, "reasonable and rational" forums, would spring up for discussion regarding crypto currencies?

You are asking, in effect, to benefit from the moderators' efforts to keep discussion civil and investing-related, but why haven't other such forums emerged?

(there is room for legitimate discussion re Crypto. But on forums about their technical implementation and use. NOT on an investing forum).

BTW there's quite a bit of discussion on Crypto going on in Central Banking circles. You might be able to join some of the Conferences (since they are all being done online these days).
Last edited by Valuethinker on Wed May 19, 2021 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Valuethinker »

Elric wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:24 pm
secondopinion wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:16 pm A real estate/stock/bond bubble is often far milder than what was seen with tulips. With the former, all three can generate earnings as to the investor (whether it is realized or not).
This is not my area of expertise, but my understanding is that one can currently lend out ether and earn a return in that manner. Is that not correct?
But there was never any clear explanation as to how that particularly money making machine worked?

Lend out to whom? And why would they pay you 10% pa for that privilege?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by uberdoc »

Totally support the policy. Many of my posts were deleted by the moderators and I accepted their decision each time.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Jags4186 »

Elric wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:51 am
RXfiles wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:43 am
chw wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 2:36 am ... To continue the discussions on this board regarding crypto (which seem to be spreading like weeds), could seem to legitimize these investments on this forum.
... I wonder how many people rebalanced to the 2% market cap only to see half of it vanish overnight. I definitely considered it. Luckily I got off with just messing around with a couple hundred dollars. Lesson learned again.
In 1987, the S&P 500 lost 20.47% of its value in a single day. I was invested in the market at that time. This did not mean that investing in the stock market was illegitimate. Nor would it have been a good take-away to stop investing in the market.
Yes, indeed. Investing in the stock market is incredibly risky. Most have no idea just how risky it is. And that is with real companies employing real people making real products selling for real money. Now how risky is a "currency" back by no government that appeared out of thin air 15 or so years ago?
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by middistancerunner »

I really appreciate this decision. Thank you, moderators.

I've been coming here off-and-on for nearly a decade and have benefited so, so much from this forum over the years. I hadn't been by in about a year until a couple weeks ago, and the change in how the forum felt when I returned was to me really jarring; this place felt nearly unrecognizable. And it's not just the cryptocurrency discussions per se, though they are a huge part of it ... it feels like the permissiveness towards lengthy cryptocurrency discussions (with a lot of very wrong-headed/incorrect statements being made with the air of certainty/authority) has led to a broadening in the feeling of the permissiveness of the forum/its membership towards risky investment strategies more generally. Basically, I think you get the feeling that a lot more bad ideas fall under the "Bogleheads" banner than you used to when you visited this forum.

I used to enthusiastically recommend this place to newbies getting started; I felt like if they came here and posted a question that about 80% of the responses would be correct, useful, kind, etc. But my impression in recent weeks has been I wouldn't recommend the forum anymore. In fact I recently was helping some friends on Facebook with investment questions, and refrained from mentioning Bogleheads, when I would have in the past. I was worried people would both get bad advice on traditional investments, and come away with the impression that they should be looking into a number of the risky options being currently discussed here.

FWIW I am not some fuddy-duddy who doesn't understand crypto; I am in my 30s with most of my friends in the tech sector and have known about Bitcoin nearly since its inception.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Forester »

Image

Good enough for CNBC but not here = active decision, a definitive call on the future. The market and financial media has awarded crypto currencies a large degree of prestige.
They have a literal value of nothing, they have a future value of nothing. Thus their price depends entirely on whether enough people are willing to ignore this fact and exchange real money for nothing.
I agree crypto is likely junk - but I might he wrong and this $1.8Trillion investable market might be right.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:57 am
RXfiles wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:48 am
Thesaints wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:46 am
RXfiles wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 11:43 am It certainly did. I wonder how many people rebalanced to the 2% market cap
Which market, exactly ?
I have no idea. I kept reading so many people saying cryptos were at 2% of a cap weighted portfolio now. and since they carried weight a boglehead should hold it. I don't understand it but it was every where on here.
I hold crypto at market weight relative to stocks and bonds in my Risk Portfolio.

I do little to no rebalancing -- if the position declines by 25% in relative market weight, as it has since I started it, so be it.

Quarterly I check the market weights of the Global Market Portfolio as its data is update:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... g_/pubhtml#

I check just to make sure things haven't drifted too far out of whack due to new contributions, but so far, I haven't needed to rebalance anything.
It’s been interesting watching your investments evolve over the last several months. I recall your post about selling 10% of your equities because of the elevated Schiller CAPE awhile back and then when we returned from a month long RV trip last week I saw you picked up two cryptocurrencies during the time we were w/o internet in the mountains. Being roughly the same age and in a similar position in life it’s made for a least a bit of contemplation on my part. Thanks for your candor!

I’m rooting for your crypto to do a 180.
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Re: New Forum Policy Prohibiting Discussions of Cryptocurrency, Market Manipulation Schemes, etc as Investing Strategies

Post by wootwoot »

skor99 wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:23 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:15 pm
wootwoot wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 12:02 pm This policy feel like a "bury our head in the sand" type of move. While crypto has been erratic that will change over time. There's a real lack of understanding across the forum regarding what crypto is and what it isn't.
It's an incredibly conservative move but this is an incredibly (financially) conservative forum.

I've been here 14 years and remember when ETFs were considered a bit sketchy and Bogle himself was skeptical.

But ETFs have matured and become mainstream.

Perhaps 5-10 years from now, if the crypto space matures, it will be allowed to be discussed here.
Matures to what ? How will Bitcoin generate any wealth except for the greater fool theory ? I am all for the underlying technology like Blockchain etc but how does Bitcoin by itself do anything except to act as an alternative currency that maybe provides some anonymity and hence the potential for nefarious uses and therefore may be banned in the future
Do you consider investing in gold the greater fool theory? Gold doesn't generate wealth and private ownership was outlawed at one time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102. Should threads concerning precious metal investing be banned as well?
Last edited by wootwoot on Wed May 19, 2021 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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