madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their February 2009 returns, 2009 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2004 and 2006 (10 years 2 months, 8 years 2 months, 5 years 2 months, 3 years 2 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR     CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Feb     YTD      since    since   since   since
                  2009    2009     2006     2004    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -9.21%  -14.62%  -14.46%  -0.61%   4.53%   7.98%
Sheltered Sam   -12.30%  -22.31%  -14.43%  -4.16%  -1.33%   0.70%
VFINX           -10.66%  -18.17%  -13.66%  -5.94%  -5.29%  -3.36%
                  
s&d              -9.60%  -18.32%  -10.26%  -1.78%   0.42%   2.19%
3 fund           -8.03%  -15.26%   -8.90%  -1.75%  -1.06%   0.21%
Newsletter G     -8.54%  -13.20%  -10.80%  -2.07%  -1.13%   4.04%
Newsletter G-IND -8.12%  -14.00%  -12.08%  -2.91%  -1.38%  -0.88%
LS G             -9.18%  -16.50%  -11.32%  -3.71%  -2.53%  -1.03%
                  
Wellington       -6.45%  -11.54%   -4.79%   0.32%   2.16%   3.16%
coffeehouse      -8.11%  -15.25%   -6.81%  -0.63%   1.73%   2.89%
STAR             -6.30%  -11.30%   -7.16%  -1.03%   0.64%   2.24%
LS MG            -7.21%  -13.06%   -7.65%  -1.84%  -0.59%   0.55%
Newsletter CG    -7.64%  -11.70%   -9.17%  -1.88%  -0.72%   2.51%
                  
Wellesley        -4.96%   -9.35%   -1.26%   1.30%   3.43%   3.84%
LS CG            -5.33%   -9.25%   -4.50%  -0.48%   0.89%   1.77%
Newsletter Inc   -5.35%   -8.00%   -6.74%  -1.54%   0.46%   0.95%
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

Without trying to add too much misery to the situation, I thought I would post the "total returns" and not just the annualized returns. The purpose of this is to see the impact of compounding in the "negative" direction. A -3.36% drop in a year doesn't seem too bad, but -29.38% over 10 years is pretty dramatic! And, remember 2006 and 2007 were positive years in the market (making those "since 2006" all the more shocking).

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                     Total    Total   Total    Total
                   Feb      YTD      since    since   since    since
                   2009     2009     2006     2004    2001     1999
Hot Hands         -9.21%  -14.62%  -39.01%   -3.13%   43.55%  118.18%
Sheltered Sam    -12.30%  -22.31%  -38.95%  -19.73%  -10.32%    7.38%
VFINX            -10.66%  -18.17%  -37.19%  -27.13%  -35.86%  -29.38%
            
s&d               -9.60%  -18.32%  -29.03%   -8.88%    3.52%   24.62%
3 fund            -8.03%  -15.26%  -25.55%   -8.74%   -8.34%    2.15%
Newsletter G      -8.54%  -13.20%  -30.36%  -10.24%   -8.84%   49.59%
Newsletter G-IND  -8.12%  -14.00%  -33.48%  -14.16%  -10.75%   -8.55%
LS G              -9.18%  -16.50%  -31.63%  -17.74%  -18.91%  -10.04%
            
Wellington        -6.45%  -11.54%  -14.39%    1.67%   19.08%   37.26%
coffeehouse       -8.11%  -15.25%  -20.02%   -3.21%   15.06%   33.65%
STAR              -6.30%  -11.30%  -20.95%   -5.22%    5.34%   25.22%
LS MG             -7.21%  -13.06%  -22.26%   -9.16%   -4.75%    5.75%
Newsletter CG     -7.64%  -11.70%  -26.27%   -9.35%   -5.73%   28.64%
            
Wellesley         -4.96%   -9.35%   -3.95%    6.92%   31.75%   46.72%
LS CG             -5.33%   -9.25%  -13.56%   -2.47%    7.50%   19.56%
Newsletter Inc    -5.35%   -8.00%  -19.84%   -7.71%    3.81%   10.10%
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