Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

rarvesen · Post by **rarvesen** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:03 am

Taylor is retiring from the contest. He started the contest in 2001 to demonstrate the futility of trying to forecast the stock market, and I helped by creating a tracking program in 2003. I'm posting the "official registration" this year.

Welcome to the 2021 Boglehead Contest designed to demonstrate how difficult it is to forecast future stock prices.

Recap of 2020 contest
On January 1, 2020 the S&P 500 Index was 3230.78 and on December 31, 2020 it closed at 3756.07. Mlretired made a remarkable winning guess that the S&P 500 Index would close at 3755.00, out-guessing 652 Bogleheads and 12 Wall Street expert forecasters.

2020 Boglehead Contest

2021 Boglehead Contest

Rules:

Forecast (below) what you think will be the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2021.
Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
Registration ends 11:00 PM ET, January 10, 2021.

Happy New Year and Good Luck!

Taylor and Ralph Arvesen (programmer)

BarbBrooklyn · Post by **BarbBrooklyn** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:13 am

4093.

All the best to you, Mr. Larimore and Happy New Year!

jj01 · Post by **jj01** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:14 am

Let's go: 3312

travelspot · Post by **travelspot** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:17 am

4280.1

Silence Dogood · Post by **Silence Dogood** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:18 am

3333.33

galawdawg · Post by **galawdawg** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:23 am

4227.46

German Expat · Post by **German Expat** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:25 am

4018.99

sunset · Post by **sunset** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:27 am

3550.00

theduke · Post by **theduke** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:30 am

3756.07

seymore92 · Post by **seymore92** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:32 am

4382.05

madpunster · Post by **madpunster** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:32 am

4000.01

Happy New Year!

40 Years' Gatherin's · Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:33 am

4131.62

CABob · Post by **CABob** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:35 am

3876.54

larrydmsn · Post by **larrydmsn** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:35 am

3456.78

bogledogle · Post by **bogledogle** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:36 am

4200.00

renter · Post by **renter** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:36 am

3125.50

HomeStretch · Post by **HomeStretch** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:37 am

4050.0

260chrisb · Post by **260chrisb** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:38 am

A very Happy New Year to you gentlemen; 4619.

Nestegg_User · Post by **Nestegg_User** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:39 am

4106.50

piazano · Post by **piazano** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:40 am

4126.00

r60rider · Post by **r60rider** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:40 am

3000.50

zie · Post by **zie** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:40 am

4200

because why not.

JPH · Post by **JPH** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:41 am

3963.2

dropdx · Post by **dropdx** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:41 am

4206.72

Windylotus · Post by **Windylotus** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:42 am

4507.20

TdF fan · Post by **TdF fan** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:46 am

4469.49

jpohio · Post by **jpohio** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:50 am

4375

Happy New Year everyone

Rick Ferri · Post by **Rick Ferri** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:51 am

3770.01

furwut · Post by **furwut** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:56 am

4263

Baby needs a new pair shoes ...

Deadwood · Post by **Deadwood** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:57 am

4075.5

Info_Hound · Post by **Info_Hound** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:57 am

4251.7

Jags4186 · Post by **Jags4186** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:59 am

4327.52

dreamrrr · Post by **dreamrrr** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:59 am

4301.01

AerialWombat · Post by **AerialWombat** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:04 pm

4210.55

mindgap · Post by **mindgap** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:06 pm

4132.60

Wings2525 · Post by **Wings2525** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:08 pm

3625.25

Happy and healthy New Year everyone!

VictoriaF · Post by **VictoriaF** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:10 pm

3141.59

Victoria

TallBoy29er · Post by **TallBoy29er** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:11 pm

4090.36

Happy New Year!

SantaClaraSurfer · Post by **SantaClaraSurfer** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:11 pm

3967.5

DCChak · Post by **DCChak** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:13 pm

Let's say 4043

pkcrafter · Post by **pkcrafter** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:13 pm

Prediction? Guess? Well,it depends...

I can't even decide if the market is going up or going down.

My guess for S&P 500 is...........

close of 4100. No, wait. 4103

Here is data to help you decide, ha-ha.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2505/dow-jo ... erformance

Paul

JamesSFO · Post by **JamesSFO** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:14 pm

4056.55 is my guess. Always enjoy this contest

Dottie57 · Post by **Dottie57** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:14 pm

3750.

Theduke took my answer.

mikemagz11 · Post by **mikemagz11** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:15 pm

4119.22

indexfundfan · Post by **indexfundfan** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:15 pm

3876.54

houseofnine · Post by **houseofnine** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:17 pm

4018.8

BruinBones · Post by **BruinBones** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:21 pm

4063

HuckFinn · Post by **HuckFinn** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:22 pm

3579.47

ironman · Post by **ironman** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:23 pm

4123.0

palaheel · Post by **palaheel** » Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:27 pm

3004.85