Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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rarvesen
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Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by rarvesen »

Taylor is retiring from the contest. He started the contest in 2001 to demonstrate the futility of trying to forecast the stock market, and I helped by creating a tracking program in 2003. I'm posting the "official registration" this year.

Welcome to the 2021 Boglehead Contest designed to demonstrate how difficult it is to forecast future stock prices.

Recap of 2020 contest
On January 1, 2020 the S&P 500 Index was 3230.78 and on December 31, 2020 it closed at 3756.07. Mlretired made a remarkable winning guess that the S&P 500 Index would close at 3755.00, out-guessing 652 Bogleheads and 12 Wall Street expert forecasters.

2020 Boglehead Contest

2021 Boglehead Contest

Rules:
  • Forecast (below) what you think will be the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2021.
  • Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
  • In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
  • Registration ends 11:00 PM ET, January 10, 2021.
Happy New Year and Good Luck!

Taylor and Ralph Arvesen (programmer)
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by BarbBrooklyn »

4093.

All the best to you, Mr. Larimore and Happy New Year!
Last edited by BarbBrooklyn on Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:59 am, edited 4 times in total.
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jj01
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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Let's go: 3312
travelspot
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by travelspot »

4280.1
If you don't do stuff, then you don't do stuff.
Silence Dogood
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by Silence Dogood »

3333.33
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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4227.46
German Expat
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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4018.99
sunset
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by sunset »

3550.00
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theduke
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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3756.07
seymore92
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by seymore92 »

4382.05
madpunster
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by madpunster »

4000.01

Happy New Year!
40 Years' Gatherin's
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by 40 Years' Gatherin's »

4131.62
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CABob
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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3876.54
Bob
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by larrydmsn »

3456.78
bogledogle
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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4200.00
renter
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by renter »

3125.50
HomeStretch
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by HomeStretch »

4050.0
260chrisb
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by 260chrisb »

A very Happy New Year to you gentlemen; 4619.
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Nestegg_User
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by Nestegg_User »

4106.50
piazano
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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4126.00
r60rider
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by r60rider »

3000.50
zie
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by zie »

4200

because why not.
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JPH
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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3963.2
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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4206.72
Windylotus
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4507.20
TdF fan
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4469.49
jpohio
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by jpohio »

4375

Happy New Year everyone
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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3770.01
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4263

Baby needs a new pair shoes ...
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by Deadwood »

4075.5
It's not far, we can walk.
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Info_Hound
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by Info_Hound »

4251.7
Jags4186
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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4327.52
dreamrrr
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by dreamrrr »

4301.01
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AerialWombat
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by AerialWombat »

4210.55
For entertainment purposes only.
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by mindgap »

4132.60
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by Wings2525 »

3625.25

Happy and healthy New Year everyone!
Say Ya to Da UP, eh?
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VictoriaF
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

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3141.59

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
TallBoy29er
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by TallBoy29er »

4090.36

Happy New Year!
SantaClaraSurfer
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by SantaClaraSurfer »

3967.5
DCChak
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by DCChak »

Let's say 4043
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by pkcrafter »

Prediction? Guess? Well,it depends... :shock:

I can't even decide if the market is going up or going down.

My guess for S&P 500 is...........

close of 4100. No, wait. 4103

Here is data to help you decide, ha-ha.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2505/dow-jo ... erformance

Paul
Last edited by pkcrafter on Fri Jan 01, 2021 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.
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JamesSFO
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by JamesSFO »

4056.55 is my guess. Always enjoy this contest
Dottie57
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by Dottie57 »

3750.

Theduke took my answer.
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by mikemagz11 »

4119.22
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Post by indexfundfan »

3876.54
My signature has been deleted.
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by houseofnine »

4018.8
BruinBones
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by BruinBones »

:moneybag 4063
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by HuckFinn »

3579.47
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by ironman »

4123.0
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Re: Official Registration For The 2021 Boglehead Contest

Post by palaheel »

3004.85
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