madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% VVIAX, 5% VSMAX, 15% VSIAX, 10% VGSLX, 3% IAU, 5% each VEUSX, VPADX, VEMAX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

Bogleheads wiki: Madsinger Monthly Reports

-Brad.

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                                    CAGR     CAGR     CAGR    CAGR
                  Aug      YTD      since    since    since   since
                  2020     2020     2017     2015     2010    1999
VFINX             7.18%    9.72%   15.12%   11.96%   13.51%   6.87%
Hot Hands        10.13%   31.95%   15.87%    9.84%   12.20%  11.52%
Sheltered Sam     4.36%   -3.79%    7.29%    6.68%    9.42%   7.42%
                     
Newsletter G      5.78%    6.10%   12.79%   10.13%   11.88%   9.86%
Newsletter G-IND  5.42%    5.00%   11.62%    9.45%   11.77%   7.34%
LS G              4.64%    5.05%   10.36%    7.88%    9.24%   5.89%
3 fund            4.62%    5.19%   10.55%    7.98%    8.97%   6.37%
s&d               3.10%   -2.31%    6.71%    5.76%    8.02%   7.09%

Code: Select all

Newsletter CG     4.71%    6.70%   11.97%    9.57%   11.14%   8.46%
Wellington        3.29%    4.29%    9.94%    8.31%    9.68%   7.79%
STAR              3.72%    9.89%   11.78%    8.65%    9.34%   7.26%
LS MG             3.22%    5.44%    9.11%    6.99%    8.09%   5.75%
coffeehouse       1.91%   -0.32%    6.33%    5.55%    7.81%   6.87%
                  
Newsletter Inc    3.71%    6.20%   11.39%    8.77%   10.00%   6.65%
Wellesley         0.21%    3.44%    7.24%    6.31%    7.80%   6.83%
LS CG             1.80%    5.65%    7.77%    6.00%    6.73%   5.35%
                  
madsinger         2.03%    5.72%    8.18%    6.43%    7.97%   
madsinger PP      0.42%   15.82%   11.24%    7.70%      
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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

Post by madsinger »

As I was getting my stuff ready to make the September report, I went back and realized that I had never submitted my August report. Sorry for the delay.

August was a strong month for the portfolios (although that is quite "dated" information here on the last day of September). The portfolios that tilt towards small and value are doing much worse than total markets, or most obviously, against "portfolios" that lean towards large and growth (notably, the "Hot Hands" fund this year).

In August, the madsinger permanent portfolio assets went in all directions. Stocks up big, long bonds down big, short bonds and gold close to even. This made for a rather flat month for the PP (see below).

I expect the have the September report out in a day or two!

-Brad.

Code: Select all

           STOCK  LONG BOND  SHORT BOND   GOLD    PORTFOLIO 
January   -0.04%    7.34%      0.95%      4.62%     3.19%
February  -8.23%    6.37%      0.69%     -0.66%    -0.42%
March    -11.48%    6.64%     -4.37%      0.68%    -2.19%
April     12.76%    1.73%      2.44%      6.90%     5.74%
May        4.69%   -1.72%      1.20%      2.61%     1.67%
June       1.97%    0.85%      0.90%      2.78%     1.58%
July       5.62%    4.22%      0.68%     11.01%     5.23%
August     7.19%   -4.84%      0.14%     -0.48%     0.40%

YTD (Aug) 11.02%   23.49%      2.80%     29.10%    15.82%
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jjustice
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

Post by jjustice »

I don't hear much about STAR fund, but I see that it has outperformed Wellington in every period since 2015. Pretty good for a fund that gets so little notice.

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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

Post by 000 »

Permanent Portfolio just keeps chugging along, winning its own race.
FactualFran
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

Post by FactualFran »

jjustice wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:06 pm I don't hear much about STAR fund, but I see that it has outperformed Wellington in every period since 2015. Pretty good for a fund that gets so little notice.
That is a good example of recency bias. There have been 30 5-calendar-year rolling periods for which the STAR and Wellington funds have both existed. The STAR fund has had a higher return twice, for the periods ending 1992 and 2000.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

Post by Scooter57 »

FactualFran wrote: Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:53 pm
jjustice wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:06 pm I don't hear much about STAR fund, but I see that it has outperformed Wellington in every period since 2015. Pretty good for a fund that gets so little notice.
That is a good example of recency bias. There have been 30 5-calendar-year rolling periods for which the STAR and Wellington funds have both existed. The STAR fund has had a higher return twice, for the periods ending 1992 and 2000.
You are being misled by back testing. Between 1992 and 2000 bonds were paying 7% and on average dropping very slowly, raising NAV. Now they pay squat and you're going to see NAVs rise only if you are paying bond issuers to lend them money (I.e. negative rates).
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

Post by FactualFran »

Scooter57 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:43 am You are being misled by back testing. Between 1992 and 2000 bonds were paying 7% and on average dropping very slowly, raising NAV. Now they pay squat and you're going to see NAVs rise only if you are paying bond issuers to lend them money (I.e. negative rates).
The rate of bonds between 1992 and 2000 is not relevant. Both of the STAR fund and the Wellington fund allocate similar percentages to stocks and bonds.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

Post by Scooter57 »

You can only invest now, for the future, so what does it matter how these bond-heavy funds performed in the past under entirely different circumstances?
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

Post by FactualFran »

Scooter57 wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:40 pm You can only invest now, for the future, so what does it matter how these bond-heavy funds performed in the past under entirely different circumstances?
The historical performance of the funds is interesting enough for jjustice to have posted: "I don't hear much about STAR fund, but I see that it has outperformed Wellington in every period since 2015." I replied with information about the five year rolling returns. Those not interested in the historical relative performance of the funds can ignore those posts.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2020)

Post by Peculiar_Investor »

madsinger wrote: Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:21 am I expect the have the September report out in a day or two!
I was updating the wiki page Madsinger monthly reports - Bogleheads and circled back because the September report never was posted.
Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams
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