madsinger monthly report (June 2020)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (June 2020)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their June 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 6 months, 10 years 6 months, 5 years 6 months, 3 years 6 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% VVIAX, 5% VSMAX, 15% VSIAX, 10% VGSLX, 3% IAU, 5% each VEUSX, VPADX, VEMAX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

Bogleheads wiki: Madsinger Monthly Reports

-Brad.

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                                  CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  June    YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2020    2020    2017    2015    2010    1999
VFINX             1.99%  -3.10%  11.85%   9.84%  12.40%   6.31%
Hot Hands         4.79%  11.32%  11.16%   6.80%  10.60%  10.74%
Sheltered Sam     1.83% -11.68%   5.05%   5.24%   8.69%   7.06%
                  
Newsletter G      3.01%  -4.30%  10.14%   8.40%  10.99%   9.42%
Newsletter G-IND  1.50%  -5.40%   8.91%   7.68%  10.86%   6.88%
LS G              2.62%  -3.74%   8.15%   6.42%   8.49%   5.51%
3 fund            2.48%  -3.61%   8.34%   6.52%   8.22%   5.99%
s&d               2.09%  -8.48%   5.07%   4.69%   7.48%   6.82%

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Newsletter CG     2.52%  -2.20%   9.81%   8.15%  10.41%   8.09%
Wellington        0.87%  -3.46%   8.03%   7.06%   9.04%   7.47%
STAR              3.00%   1.50%   9.85%   7.36%   8.67%   6.93%
LS MG             2.17%  -1.38%   7.49%   5.92%   7.54%   5.47%
coffeehouse       1.45%  -5.04%   5.18%   4.80%   7.44%   6.69%
                  
Newsletter Inc    1.44%  -1.10%   9.71%   7.64%   9.42%   6.35%
Wellesley         0.47%   0.40%   6.69%   5.93%   7.62%   6.74%
LS CG             1.70%   0.90%   6.74%   5.30%   6.38%   5.16%
                  
madsinger         2.44%  -0.80%   6.63%   5.40%   7.45%   
madsinger PP      1.58%   9.66%  10.07%   6.88%      
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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2020)

Post by madsinger »

A mostly positive month of June for the asset classes. The only "down" performer in the funds held by the portfolios was US Large value. For the first half of the year, growth stocks soundly outpaced value stocks. The "Hot Hands" fund is a growth stock fund, and is up over +11% for the year. Most of the "slicing and dicing" portfolios overweight funds holding value stocks, and these are lagging the total stock holdings.

All four asset classes in the Permanent Portfolio were up for June (with Gold leading the way). The PP is up 9.66% for the first half of the year, which is well above historical averages. The (what is now) minor loss in the S&P 500 fund was more than offset by the large returns in Long Bonds (over +24%) and gold (up over %17%).

It's been a volatile ride for the first half of 2020 (for investors and for everyone else on the planet). Best wishes to all for a healthy and prosperous rest of the year.

-Brad.

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         STOCK  LONG BOND  SHORT BOND   GOLD    PORTFOLIO 
January  -0.04%    7.34%       0.95%     4.62%     3.19%
February -8.23%    6.37%       0.69%    -0.66%    -0.42%
March   -11.48%    6.64%      -4.37%     0.68%    -2.19%
April    12.76%    1.73%       2.44%     6.90%     5.74%
May       4.69%   -1.72%       1.20%     2.61%     1.67%
June      1.97%    0.85%       0.90%     2.78%     1.58%

YTD      -1.65%   24.54%       1.96%    17.22%     9.66%
tj
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2020)

Post by tj »

Does the newsletter actually produce some sort of secret sauce? Or just continuous dumb luck?
sycamore
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2020)

Post by sycamore »

Interesting to see the STAR fund doing relatively well. I'm guessing that's due to its use of and tilt toward growth-focused stocks and long-term (investment grade) bonds.

Thanks for posting madsinger and best wishes to you, too.
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Re: madsinger monthly report (June 2020)

Post by madsinger »

tj wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:11 pm Does the newsletter actually produce some sort of secret sauce? Or just continuous dumb luck?
I don't know what these portfolios hold (I know they're made up of Vanguard funds, but I don't know which ones).

I do know that during a stretch from 2000 to 2010, these portfolios were marketed as a reliable way to beat the S&P 500. There was a running tab of showing how much the growth portfolio was ahead of the S&P 500 fund.

You can see that since 2010, the S&P 500 fund has bested all portfolios by a significant amount.

Secret sauce in the S&P 500?

Brad.
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