Which investor is bullish?

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PurpleArc
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Which investor is bullish?

Post by PurpleArc » Sat May 23, 2020 7:48 pm

Most investors (Ray Dalio, Jim Rogers, Warren Buffet) are not confident about the economy, are we reading too much in the doom's day YouTube videos (granted with good premise) hence my question is which famous people is bullish today?

Normchad
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by Normchad » Sat May 23, 2020 7:53 pm

I think Buffett is always bullish on the US economy..... he doesn’t try to predict near term stuff, but long term he always says bet on America, or something like that.

How many folks here think the S&P will be lower ten years from now than it is today? Or think US GDP will be less than it is today?

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pennsylvania211
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by pennsylvania211 » Sat May 23, 2020 7:58 pm

Expecting to hold for another 30 years. I'm bull-ish.

:sharebeer
"In the long run, investing is not about markets at all. Investing is about enjoying the returns earned by businesses." - Jack Bogle

PDX_Traveler
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by PDX_Traveler » Sun May 24, 2020 1:03 am

Normchad wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:53 pm
I think Buffett is always bullish on the US economy..... he doesn’t try to predict near term stuff, but long term he always says bet on America, or something like that.

How many folks here think the S&P will be lower ten years from now than it is today? Or think US GDP will be less than it is today?
I don't disagree with the last point. However, as the following graph shows, after the '07-'08 recession, the US GDP largely resumed trend growth, so a permanent GDP gap was created *from the previous trendline*. Another such occurrence in 2020-?? would create a further gap from potential GDP. i.e., unless faster GDP growth rate than the prevailing trend occurs, we wouldn't 'catch up' to what GDP might have been, and in effect trillions of $ in GDP would have been vanished. That has to have some effect on the country, the economy, and the individual stories that make up the former two.
Image

DonIce
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by DonIce » Sun May 24, 2020 1:27 am

PDX_Traveler wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 1:03 am
Normchad wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:53 pm
I think Buffett is always bullish on the US economy..... he doesn’t try to predict near term stuff, but long term he always says bet on America, or something like that.

How many folks here think the S&P will be lower ten years from now than it is today? Or think US GDP will be less than it is today?
I don't disagree with the last point. However, as the following graph shows, after the '07-'08 recession, the US GDP largely resumed trend growth, so a permanent GDP gap was created *from the previous trendline*. Another such occurrence in 2020-?? would create a further gap from potential GDP. i.e., unless faster GDP growth rate than the prevailing trend occurs, we wouldn't 'catch up' to what GDP might have been, and in effect trillions of $ in GDP would have been vanished. That has to have some effect on the country, the economy, and the individual stories that make up the former two.
Image
Maybe... it's hard enough to forecast for one or two quarters ahead, let alone the might-have-beens in an alternate version of reality where some major event didn't happen. But at least for the case of 2008, one could argue that, leading up to 2008, we had faster than trend growth because we were borrowing growth from the future using excessive leverage. The same leverage which then precipitated the 2008 crisis and had to be unwound, mostly returning us to the line we would have been on without said excessive leverage. Or not. Can't know for sure.

For the 2020 crisis, it does seem that permanent damage is being done though, since a chunk of economic output was just shut down. Even once things are back to normal, the lost months of production can't be made up for. But even then, the pandemic may have many long term impacts, including different views on work-from-home, different safety nets, political outcomes, etc, that the future will be different than it would have been, and whether it is on the whole better or worse is impossible to know.

David Althaus
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by David Althaus » Sun May 24, 2020 8:24 am

1. If you can get your hands on Saturday's Wall Street Journal note an essay in the review section which essentially asserts economic growth explosions closely follow pandemic events. Post Spanish Flu just the latest example (Roaring 20''s)
2. If you backtest a 100% US Stock market portfolio for the last 20 years (Portfolio Visualizer) the CAGR is about 5 1/2 %. That's roughly half the long-term rate of gain. Nobody knows for sure but mean reversion supports an assertion for better times ahead.
3. As is always recounted by Bogleheads no one can predict the future. If they could they would not be telling us.
4. Develop your IPS, set your asset allocation, stay the course, rinse and repeat.

All the best

Robot Monster
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by Robot Monster » Sun May 24, 2020 8:26 am

Normchad wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:53 pm
How many folks here think the S&P will be lower ten years from now than it is today?
I don't expect the S&P to be lower ten years from now than it is today in the same way I don't expect my house to burn to the ground...still, both are possible.

Fortune Seeker
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by Fortune Seeker » Sun May 24, 2020 10:31 pm

That's what your bond allocation is for. :)

annu
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by annu » Sun May 24, 2020 10:48 pm

David Althaus wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 8:24 am
1. If you can get your hands on Saturday's Wall Street Journal note an essay in the review section which essentially asserts economic growth explosions closely follow pandemic events. Post Spanish Flu just the latest example (Roaring 20''s)
2. If you backtest a 100% US Stock market portfolio for the last 20 years (Portfolio Visualizer) the CAGR is about 5 1/2 %. That's roughly half the long-term rate of gain. Nobody knows for sure but mean reversion supports an assertion for better times ahead.
3. As is always recounted by Bogleheads no one can predict the future. If they could they would not be telling us.
4. Develop your IPS, set your asset allocation, stay the course, rinse and repeat.

All the best
Well roaring 20s hopefully will not happen again, as we know what it was followed with and for a very legit reason...

But one reason for 20s growth was there was a relatively new concept which had a massive increase during this time called Consumerism. U.S. citizens mass purchased numerous new appliances which had recently been invented, such as the automobile; the washing machine; and the radio. This also coupled with the creation of modern advertising in newspapers and on the radio, which persuaded citizens to purchase items even if they could not truly afford them.

People bought items without being able to afford them by use of a new financial item known as "Installment Plans". These plans worked in a similar way as modern credit cards in that people could live a "Buy now, pay later" lifestyle. These were paid in small payments every month, so that all citizens could live like the wealthy elite.

That grownmth input is lacking right now and even that started after few years of w like up and down, we have only seen a v yet.

Long term sure bullish, short term 2020 and 21, not sure yet, not enough data to show we are done with the lows.

7eight9
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by 7eight9 » Sun May 24, 2020 11:28 pm

Robot Monster wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 8:26 am
Normchad wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:53 pm
How many folks here think the S&P will be lower ten years from now than it is today?
I don't expect the S&P to be lower ten years from now than it is today in the same way I don't expect my house to burn to the ground...still, both are possible.
I doubt many people in 1989 would have thought that the Nikkei would be lower 10 years later.

Or 20 years later.

Or 30 years later.

Maybe the Nikkei will regain its former glory 40 years later.

Long time to wait.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

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geerhardusvos
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by geerhardusvos » Mon May 25, 2020 9:53 am

pennsylvania211 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:58 pm
Expecting to hold for another 30 years. I'm bull-ish.

:sharebeer
+1 even 10-15 years I’m bullish
VTSAX and chill

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JoMoney
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by JoMoney » Mon May 25, 2020 10:07 am

Warren Buffett repeated his advice to most U.S. investors just a couple weeks ago, and it hasn't changed.
I don't think any investor worth listening to is talking about what the stock market is doing "today". Yes, there are headwinds, uncertainty, and a lot of risk going forward... but that's always been the case, even when the obstacles we will have to navigate around weren't so apparent. You're playing a losing game if you think that means out-guessing others trying to trade your way around stock-market volatility.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

New Providence
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by New Providence » Mon May 25, 2020 10:14 am

"...the total number of unemployed isn't 23.1 million, but a staggering 43.2 million people in the United States. That's 27% of the US labor force for April."

Forbes. May 8, 2020

I don't know if the real number is 23 million or more than that. But it is staggering that many just simply ignore that this may be the highest unemployment level in history.

Normchad
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by Normchad » Mon May 25, 2020 10:22 am

New Providence wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 10:14 am
"...the total number of unemployed isn't 23.1 million, but a staggering 43.2 million people in the United States. That's 27% of the US labor force for April."

Forbes. May 8, 2020

I don't know if the real number is 23 million or more than that. But it is staggering that many just simply ignore that this may be the highest unemployment level in history.
It’s a huge number, for sure. And I’m not ignoring it, but I am bullish.

For one, I think a lot of that is very temporary. I’m guessing 75% of those folks will be working a year from now.

Secondly though, it’s generally good for companies to trim their payrolls. It helps productivity, reduces waste, and frees those people up to do something economically more productive.

I was shocked to learn that Uber has 12,000 employees. I’m sure trimming down will help them find their way to profitability.

And lastly, we are in an extremely pro-business environment. Our policies and tax code are very conducive to helping businesses succeed.

So I’m bullish. (Caution though, nobody knows nothing).

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nisiprius
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Re: Which investor is bullish?

Post by nisiprius » Tue May 26, 2020 8:39 am

Do not read a variety of financial news sources, pay attention to guru opinions that catch your attention, synthesize them into some overall "everybody says" summary, and then take investment actions on that summary.

You are just setting yourself up for "confirmation bias."

At any given point in time there are always people I personally find credible who are bullish, and others who are bearish.

When you asked "who's bullish," the first thought that occurred to me was "probably Jeremy Siegel," whom I don't generally follow. I don't believe in the implied message of his book, Stocks for the Long Run, but I find him not only to be far more knowledgeable than I, accurate in his data, and intellectually honest. And, just as I expected, he is bullish:

March coronavirus swoon in stocks definitely going to be the low
The stock market’s coronavirus-driven bottom in late March is “definitely going to be the low” during the crisis, Wharton School professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC on Friday.

In fact, Siegel said the massive monetary policy response from the Federal Reserve, along with additional progress on treatments and possible vaccines for Covid-19, could really boost stocks next year.

“I think 2021 could be a boom year. With the liquidity that the Fed is adding, unprecedented. It could be a really good year,” Siegel said on “Squawk Box.”
I think he's wrong, but I personally tend to be a permabear. But my main points are:

1) Do not kid yourself that "everybody" thinks something. It's never so.

2) Every year, Larry Swedroe compiles a list of "sure things," investing expectations for the upcoming year, things that almost everyone expects to be true, and tracks how they do during the year. At the end of the year, it always turns out that lots of them, usually more than half, were dead wrong.

Do not do anything because "everybody says." Everybody doesn't say, and "everybody" is often dead wrong.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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