madsinger monthly report (March 2020)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (March 2020)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their March 2020 returns, 2020 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2010, 2015, and 2017 (21 years 3 months, 10 years 3 months, 5 years 3 months, 3 years 3 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% VVIAX, 5% VSMAX, 15% VSIAX, 10% VGSLX, 3% IAU, 5% each VEUSX, VPADX, VEMAX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                     CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                    Mar      YTD     since   since   since   since
                    2020     2020    2017    2015    2010    1999
VFINX             -12.36%  -19.61%   6.52%   6.47%  10.68%   5.45%
Hot Hands         -10.53%  -13.74%   3.61%   2.05%   8.15%   9.55%
Sheltered Sam     -16.31%  -24.59%   0.45%   2.36%   7.25%   6.35%
                  
Newsletter G      -13.02%  -20.50%   4.81%   5.04%   9.27%   8.58%
Newsletter G-IND  -13.38%  -21.00%   3.72%   4.42%   9.21%   6.06%
LS G              -11.95%  -17.60%   3.72%   3.63%   7.07%   4.81%
3 fund            -11.51%  -17.07%   4.08%   3.83%   6.85%   5.32%
s&d               -13.94%  -20.20%   1.11%   2.21%   6.24%   6.21%

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Newsletter CG     -10.55%  -16.10%   5.50%   5.43%   9.04%   7.41%
Wellington         -9.30%  -13.82%   4.94%   5.11%   8.07%   6.99%
STAR               -9.75%  -13.02%   5.52%   4.61%   7.26%   6.24%
coffeehouse       -10.51%  -14.48%   2.24%   2.95%   6.54%   6.24%
LS MG              -9.28%  -12.89%   4.04%   3.72%   6.43%   4.92%
                  
Newsletter Inc     -8.05%  -12.10%   6.55%   5.62%   8.41%   5.84%
Wellesley          -6.32%   -7.42%   4.58%   4.59%   6.97%   6.41%
LS CG              -6.58%   -8.00%   4.27%   3.72%   5.58%   4.77%
                  
madsinger          -9.64%  -12.59%   3.06%   3.15%   6.32%   
madsinger PP       -2.05%    0.65%   8.00%   5.48%      
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ram
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Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2020)

Post by ram »

Despite the recent beating the 3 fund folio is showing a respectable 6.9% since 2010. and the S&P index about 10.7%. Reassuring numbers.
Thanks madsinger.
Ram
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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (March 2020)

Post by madsinger »

No real surprises in this report, but some hard numbers.

US large stocks down -12% to -13% for the month, and -20% to -21% for the past three months. Large value down a bit more -15% for the month, -25% for the year. Small caps down -22% for the month, -30% for the year to date, and small value down -25% for the month, -35% year to date.

Foreign stocks down about -25% for the year. REITs down about -24% YTD.

Total bonds were down about -0.5% for the month, but lots of variation. Long Treasuries were up sharply, +6% for the month, about 22% for the year. Short treasuries up +1.2% for the month, short corporate bonds down over -4%.

Gold was basically flat for the month.

The permanent portfolio was down -2% for the month, but is still positive for the year. (mostly due to the long treasuries).

I rebalanced four times since Feb 27. Mostly selling long bonds, some short bonds, and gold. Buying stocks. Some slight "rebalancing bonus" happens. The Vanguard S&P 500 fund is down -19.61% for the first three months. My S&P 500 holding is down "only" -18.88% due to buying stocks on March 20. IAU (Gold) is up 3.93% for the year, and my holding is up 4.67% due to selling on March 24 (at a local peak). My long bonds are up 21.83% versus 20.84% for the fund due to sales on Feb 27 and March 9. The sale of short bonds on March 20 (a lower point) means my holdings fell -2.76% versus -2.38% for the fund.

I also got a good taste of why the permanent portfolio holds cash, and not short bonds. The "stable" part of my portfolio fell -4.37% this month. The risk of corporate bonds is real, and showed up this month. Short treasuries were up 1.2% for the month, and up 2.7% for the year. If I did want to get out of cash, that probably (hind sight) would have been a better fit. I'm holding my corporates now, because sometimes these sudden drops come back fairly quickly (it already has in the last half of the month). But, I may drift towards treasuries going forward.

I hope you all are staying well and staying safe during this new world we've found ourselves in this month. Our health is more important than our portfolio values, and I hope we can all come out of this well and ready to live our lives fully again.

Best wishes,
Brad.

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           STOCK  LONG BOND  SHORT BOND  GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January   -0.04%    7.34%      0.95%     4.62%    3.19%
February  -8.23%    6.37%      0.69%    -0.66%   -0.42%
March    -11.48%    6.64%     -4.37%     0.68%   -2.19%
               
YTD      -18.88%   21.83%     -2.76%     4.67%    0.65%
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