No real surprises in this report, but some hard numbers.
US large stocks down -12% to -13% for the month, and -20% to -21% for the past three months. Large value down a bit more -15% for the month, -25% for the year. Small caps down -22% for the month, -30% for the year to date, and small value down -25% for the month, -35% year to date.
Foreign stocks down about -25% for the year. REITs down about -24% YTD.
Total bonds were down about -0.5% for the month, but lots of variation. Long Treasuries were up sharply, +6% for the month, about 22% for the year. Short treasuries up +1.2% for the month, short corporate bonds down over -4%.
Gold was basically flat for the month.
The permanent portfolio was down -2% for the month, but is still positive for the year. (mostly due to the long treasuries).
I rebalanced four times since Feb 27. Mostly selling long bonds, some short bonds, and gold. Buying stocks. Some slight "rebalancing bonus" happens. The Vanguard S&P 500 fund is down -19.61% for the first three months. My S&P 500 holding is down "only" -18.88% due to buying stocks on March 20. IAU (Gold) is up 3.93% for the year, and my holding is up 4.67% due to selling on March 24 (at a local peak). My long bonds are up 21.83% versus 20.84% for the fund due to sales on Feb 27 and March 9. The sale of short bonds on March 20 (a lower point) means my holdings fell -2.76% versus -2.38% for the fund.
I also got a good taste of why the permanent portfolio holds cash, and not short bonds. The "stable" part of my portfolio fell -4.37% this month. The risk of corporate bonds is real, and showed up this month. Short treasuries were up 1.2% for the month, and up 2.7% for the year. If I did want to get out of cash, that probably (hind sight) would have been a better fit. I'm holding my corporates now, because sometimes these sudden drops come back fairly quickly (it already has in the last half of the month). But, I may drift towards treasuries going forward.
I hope you all are staying well and staying safe during this new world we've found ourselves in this month. Our health is more important than our portfolio values, and I hope we can all come out of this well and ready to live our lives fully again.
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STOCK LONG BOND SHORT BOND GOLD PORTFOLIO
January -0.04% 7.34% 0.95% 4.62% 3.19%
February -8.23% 6.37% 0.69% -0.66% -0.42%
March -11.48% 6.64% -4.37% 0.68% -2.19%
YTD -18.88% 21.83% -2.76% 4.67% 0.65%