ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

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k1982
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:36 am

ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by k1982 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:07 am

38 years old..only been investing for a couple months now
AA 75/25

I already have 50% of my portfolio dedicated to Value Stocks and Bonds (more of my protection in case of a down turn)..
im using both Wellesley and Wellington mutual funds..and i feel super comfortable with both funds

the other 50% of my portfolio i want to dedicate ONLY to stock index funds
and i keep switching from growth to blend..then blend to growth..then growth to blend..ahhh!! its driving me crazy

any feedback? i prefer to ONLY use one of those for the next 20 years and stop tinkering with it cause i know its a recipe for disaster.
should i go all growth index stocks or blend index stocks?..for the rest of 50% of portfolio

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p.s. i do not want to use the 2 or 3 fund portfolio
however, i belief in all the other philosophy of bogleheads
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Schlabba
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by Schlabba » Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:27 am

k1982 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:07 am
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p.s. i do not want to use the 2 or 3 fund portfolio
however, i belief in all the other philosophy of bogleheads
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You are contradicting yourself there. John Bogle endlessly repeated to hold a total stock market + total bond market, and you're saying that you agree with him except for his what he said.

Why don't you want to hold the 2 or 3 funds?

Topic Author
k1982
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:36 am

Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by k1982 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:39 am

In most 5 -10 -20 year periods if you do a combo of my portfolio if beats the 2 or 3 fund.

I have 50% wellesely and wellington

And right now holding 50% in
Small growth mid growth and large growth

‐-----------
Test after test on the graph visualizer...
My portfolio beats the 2 or 3 fund portfolio in most 5 -20 year periods

Topic Author
k1982
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:36 am

Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by k1982 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:52 am

Hey hey now!
We all know what happens when you pick a segment of a market like tech companies 🙉🙉🙉
It go can south real quick

I just want to pick blend or growth and keep it at that for 20 years. Without tinkering ..ever!

How come Dave Ramsey is 100% growth?
He never mentions value or blend.
He seems like a pretty smart well rounded guy when it comes to finances.
(And yes i know most people disagree with him on his outragoues 12-14 % average returns...with his high expense ratio mutual funds)

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Wiggums
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by Wiggums » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:23 am

k1982 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:39 am
In most 5 -10 -20 year periods if you do a combo of my portfolio if beats the 2 or 3 fund.

I have 50% wellesely and wellington

And right now holding 50% in
Small growth mid growth and large growth

‐-----------
Test after test on the graph visualizer...
My portfolio beats the 2 or 3 fund portfolio in most 5 -20 year periods
You are just getting started and the market has moved up for the past 11 years. So Keep in mind that you are “optimizing” an extended bull market with less stocks. Wellesley and wellington are good funds. But you are basically kicking them up a notch with small, mid and large cap. No secret sauce there.

You can pick a TDF, add small cap, and you would do even better. You should check out Paul Merriman two funds for life portfolio video. It’s another variation of what you are doing and his charts are really good. I want you to pay attention to the potential down draft. https://paulmerriman.com/2-funds-for-life/

Own the market, get market returns. Tax efficiency is important too. I hold the three find portfolio and that’s what I suggest.

Trying to find "winning" funds ahead of time is generally a fool's errand. Find an allocation that works for you and stick to it. Your savings rate and time in the market will probably make the biggest impact anyway.
Last edited by Wiggums on Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:44 am, edited 6 times in total.

Schlabba
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by Schlabba » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:25 am

k1982 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:52 am
Hey hey now!
We all know what happens when you pick a segment of a market like tech companies 🙉🙉🙉
It go can south real quick

I just want to pick blend or growth and keep it at that for 20 years. Without tinkering ..ever!

How come Dave Ramsey is 100% growth?
He never mentions value or blend.
He seems like a pretty smart well rounded guy when it comes to finances.
(And yes i know most people disagree with him on his outragoues 12-14 % average returns...with his high expense ratio mutual funds)
My advice would be TSM. You are also making it seem like a binary decision, either value or growth. You can divide your money however you like.

Don’t get me started on Dave Ramsey :D

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1789
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by 1789 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:50 am

If you don't want 2-3 fund portfolio, then i would go with 100% Wellington. But now you are in active region.
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)

Dottie57
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by Dottie57 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:02 am

Schlabba wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:25 am
k1982 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:52 am
Hey hey now!
We all know what happens when you pick a segment of a market like tech companies 🙉🙉🙉
It go can south real quick

I just want to pick blend or growth and keep it at that for 20 years. Without tinkering ..ever!

How come Dave Ramsey is 100% growth?
He never mentions value or blend.
He seems like a pretty smart well rounded guy when it comes to finances.
(And yes i know most people disagree with him on his outragoues 12-14 % average returns...with his high expense ratio mutual funds)
My advice would be TSM. You are also making it seem like a binary decision, either value or growth. You can divide your money however you like.

Don’t get me started on Dave Ramsey :D
TSM here too. Growth and Value both get their day in the sun which is why I have both in TSM. Bonds give the portfolio more stability - in both up and down directions. I had a Boglehead portfolio in my 401k due to the excellent low cost funds available. It has done well for me.

As for DR, FORGET what he says on investing. His expectations on returns is ludicrous. Juice up the amount you save/invest as it is the only variable you can control.

anil686
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by anil686 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:08 am

+like 5 for blend... TSM > Growth or Value in isolation. JMO though...

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JoMoney
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by JoMoney » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:27 am

I think you need to stop playing/tinkering with your portfolio.
You need to take a step back and figure out what your investment "philosophy" is.
Are you an active investor or passive? I think you'll be extremely dissatisfied if you're trying to play some middle ground. The middle ground makes you a bad passive investor and a bad active investor.

If passive, you should emphasize broad diversification, low cost, and taking care to avoid the behavioral problems that can creep in and prevent you from making the most of the average returns that are easily available. Broad-based low cost index fund, and DO NOT TRADE. This is the Bogle way.

If active, are you a academic EMH type looking for tilts to emphasize various risk premiums?
Do you believe markets are competitive, but opportunities exist for those with better information, skill, positions, to exploit the "bad" active investors?
If you're the first type of 'active', you need to focus on your "risk profile" and what sorts of risks you're willing to take relative to the theorized "risk premiums". If you're the second type you need to consider it a business enterprise of it's own, your methodology and style is akin to a trade secret and you should be skeptical of the advice of others who would essentially be telling you how to exploit them or encroach on the diminishing advantage every enterprise has when competition grows.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

tibbitts
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by tibbitts » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:42 am

k1982 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:39 am
In most 5 -10 -20 year periods if you do a combo of my portfolio if beats the 2 or 3 fund.

I have 50% wellesely and wellington

And right now holding 50% in
Small growth mid growth and large growth

‐-----------
Test after test on the graph visualizer...
My portfolio beats the 2 or 3 fund portfolio in most 5 -20 year periods
Please post again in a few hundred years and let us know if that pattern has held. We'll all be anxiously awaiting the results. Of course most of us will expect a reversion to the mean over the next few hundred years that follow those few hundred years...

pkcrafter
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by pkcrafter » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:14 pm

k1982 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:07 am
38 years old..only been investing for a couple months now
AA 75/25

I already have 50% of my portfolio dedicated to Value Stocks and Bonds (more of my protection in case of a down turn)..
im using both Wellesley and Wellington mutual funds..and i feel super comfortable with both funds

The W & W is a rookie portfolio. :happy

the other 50% of my portfolio i want to dedicate ONLY to stock index funds
and i keep switching from growth to blend..then blend to growth..then growth to blend..ahhh!! its driving me crazy

Hold both, use total stock market.

any feedback? i prefer to ONLY use one of those for the next 20 years and stop tinkering with it cause i know its a recipe for disaster.

That is correct.

Paul


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p.s. i do not want to use the 2 or 3 fund portfolio
however, i belief in all the other philosophy of bogleheads

??

Paul
When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

dru808
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by dru808 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:56 pm

If you pick growth and it underperforms for 5 years, will you stick with it? You say you don’t want to tinker but seem to be back and forth between growth and blend. You’re going to have to pick and not look for 30 years if you’re truly not going to tinker.

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alpenglow
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by alpenglow » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:06 pm

dru808 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:56 pm
If you pick growth and it underperforms for 5 years, will you stick with it?
After a lot of playing with backtests and such, this is the issue that made me go with a 3-fund portfolio. It greatly helps to reduce behavioral errors, which are a huge impediment for many, leading to lower investment returns.

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ruralavalon
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by ruralavalon » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:59 pm

the other 50% of my portfolio i want to dedicate ONLY to stock index funds
and i keep switching from growth to blend..then blend to growth..then growth to blend..ahhh!! its driving me crazy
Use blend and stick with it, I suggest Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX).
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

Puretaxableindexer
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Re: ahhh... "blend" or "growth"

Post by Puretaxableindexer » Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:38 pm

I only stick with "blended" index funds/ETFs for small, medium, and large-cap stocks. I get the best of both worlds and I don't try to time growth vs value. I sleep better at night, too.

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