madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their December 2008 returns, 2008 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 (10 years, 8 years, 6 years, 4 years). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

The madsinger portfolio, my real-money portfolio (slice-n-dice, approximately 66/5/3/26 stock/REIT/PM/bond) is included at the end.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Dec      YTD     since  since   since   since
                  2008     2008    2005   2003    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -0.36%  -47.86%  -3.68%  8.59%   6.71%   9.84%
Sheltered Sam     5.32%  -37.91%  -3.37%  5.92%   1.81%   3.29%
VFINX             1.08%  -37.02%  -5.30%  2.27%  -3.00%  -1.46%
                              
s&d               5.68%  -30.16%  -1.33%  6.62%   3.01%   4.31%
3 fund            3.77%  -30.74%  -1.27%  5.57%   0.99%   1.89%
Newsletter G      4.41%  -38.40%  -2.77%  5.32%   0.61%   5.59%
Newsletter G-IND  3.11%  -40.30%  -3.50%  4.19%   0.46%   0.62%
LS G              2.69%  -34.39%  -3.28%  4.01%  -0.36%   0.75%
                              
coffeehouse       5.86%  -20.25%   0.00%  5.91%   3.90%   4.66%
Wellington        3.86%  -22.30%   0.84%  5.61%   3.79%   4.49%
STAR              4.22%  -25.10%  -1.08%  4.62%   2.17%   3.51%
LS MG             2.71%  -26.50%  -1.40%  4.19%   1.15%   1.98%
Newsletter CG     3.75%  -33.60%  -2.37%  4.78%   0.82%   3.83%   
                              
Wellesley         4.07%   -9.84%   2.33%  4.38%   4.79%   4.93%
LS CG             2.33%  -19.52%  -0.13%  3.83%   2.14%   2.80%
Newsletter Inc    2.71%  -24.10%  -1.92%  3.01%   1.52%   1.81%   

madsinger         5.00%  -28.85%  -1.19%               
Last edited by madsinger on Mon Jan 05, 2009 10:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

Good news: madsinger portfolio up 5.00% in December! This month, every "tilt" I have away from US Total Stock helped. Small caps were up over 5%, Int'l up 7-10%, REITs up over 17%, PM over 15%. Even bonds were up big.

After that....well, we all know the news. This was my lowest annual return ever (not surprising, since I wasn't investing in 1931...) However, the good news is that I feel very comfortable with my portfolio. It did what it should have done, and I'm happy for that. No surprises beyond the returns of their underlying asset classes. I'm good with that.

(I decided to publish the chart before the newsletter returns were posted on the website. If anyone would like to tell me the December and 2008 returns for the four newsletter portfolios, I'll edit the chart accordingly).

I'll post a 1, 3, 5, 10 year chart soon. Now that I have the data, this seems like a good chart to post for people to compare against other "standardized" charts.

Wishing you all a Happy 2009!

-Brad.
DblDoc
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Post by DblDoc »

Thanks madsinger. I always appreciate your monthly report to make sure my own S&D portfolio is behaving itself.

Like you I was pleasantly suprised by the Dec returns when I sat down to figure out where the new $ should go.

DD
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Post by paulob »

Happy New Year Brad!

And thanks for the valuable info.
Paul
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Post by gkaplan »

I'll get back to you Monday.
Gordon
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Post by statsguy »

Brad... here are the newsletter portfolio returns

Growth Model
4.4% Dec
-38.4% 2008

Conservative Growth Model
3.7% Dec
-33.6 2008


Income Model
2.7% Dec
-24.1% 2008


Growth Index Model
3.1% Dec
-40.3% 2008

twice editted to correct typos
Last edited by statsguy on Sat Jan 03, 2009 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
IlliniSigEp
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Post by IlliniSigEp »

This was certainly a tough year. Year end number for my 90/10 S&D portfolio was -35.32%. I beat my benchmark portfolio by .05%, so woohoo!

-Dave
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Post by Robert T »

.
Thanks Brad.

FWIW - 2008 returns across the five Fama-French risk factors.

Code: Select all


2008 Returns                       (%) 


TERM 

...LB 20+yr Treasury             33.72     
...LB 10-20yr Treasury           19.69     
...LB 7-10yr Treasury            17.97     
...LB 3-7yr Treasury             13.26     
...LB 1-3yr Treasury              6.67     


DEFAULT 

...LB 1-3yr Credit                0.30
...LB US Intermediate Credit     -2.76
...iBoxx $ Liquid HY            -23.88


MARKET 

...MSCI US Broad Mkt            -37.04
...MSCI EAFE                    -43.38
...MSCI EM                      -53.33
...MSCI AC World                -42.12


VALUE 

...MSCI US MidCap Value         -36.50
...MSCI EAFE Value              -44.09
...MSCI EM Value                -50.27            
...MSCI AC World Value          -41.53


SMALL 

...MSCI US Small                -36.20
...MSCI EAFE Small              -47.01       
...MSCI EM Small                -58.23           
...MSCI AC World Small          -43.68

 
Source: MSCI and Lehman Brothers website.

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Post by madsinger »

statsguy wrote:Brad... here are the newsletter portfolio returns

Growth Model
4.4% Dec
-38.4% 2008

Conservative Growth Model
3.7% Dec
-33.6 2008


Income Model
2.7% Dec
-24.1% 2008


Growth Index Model
3.1% Dec
-40.3% 2008

twice editted to correct typos
Thanks, statsguy! It's the middle of the night now...so I'll try and get this all updated tomorrow.

-Brad.
drgolf
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Post by drgolf »

Brad, as a newbie, can you tell me if PM is Prime MM in your s&d portfolio? Also will you share you holdings? Thanks and I look forward to future posts.

Dominic
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madsinger monthly report

Post by YDNAL »

drgolf wrote:Brad, as a newbie, can you tell me if PM is Prime MM in your s&d portfolio? Also will you share you holdings? Thanks and I look forward to future posts.

Dominic
Precious Metals.

Thanks, Brad, I too enjoy your monthly reports.
Landy | Be yourself, everyone else is already taken -- Oscar Wilde
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Post by madsinger »

drgolf wrote:Brad, as a newbie, can you tell me if PM is Prime MM in your s&d portfolio? Also will you share you holdings? Thanks and I look forward to future posts.

Dominic
Hello Dominic,

Welcome aboard!

I should have made this clearer. "PM" is the Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining fund. My 3% holding in this fund is my "diversify into commodities" holding.

I'm preparing a few more posts for this thread, and will happily post my holdings. Stay tuned!

-Brad.
DiehardDoc
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Post by DiehardDoc »

67/33 first 5months,changed to 85/15 in May, by December 31st 74/26

1year: -38%
3 year: - 13%

Any suggestions for alternatives to Vanguard precious metals fund ( VGPMX)?

I sold most of my position in VGPMX for TLH.

Thanks.
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Post by paulob »

DiehardDoc wrote:Any suggestions for alternatives to Vanguard precious metals fund ( VGPMX)?

I sold most of my position in VGPMX for TLH.

Thanks.
Check out USAGX. It's NTF @ VG. Opened the same year as VG's fund (84) and has had similiar performance.
Paul
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Bounca
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Post by Bounca »

Checking in (thanks again Brad)…..

IRA (approx 70/30 AA)
Month 5.01 %
Year - 23.82 %

20% BND
5% BSV
5% TIP
5% WTMIX (Westcore Microcap)
5% DLS
10% VEA
5% VWO
5% VNQ
5% VBR
35% VTI

ROTH (approx 75/25 AA)
Month 1.14 %
Year -28.58 %

55% EXHAX (Manning and Napier Pro Blend Max)
45% EXBAX (Manning and Napier Pro Blend Moderate)

Hears hoping for future better years for all.
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Post by gkaplan »

As of 12/31/2008, the year-to-date return on my retirement portfolio is -27.01%. My three-year rate of return is –3.61%.

My best performing fund, year-to-date, is the TSP ‘G’ Fund (3.76%). My return since I first started investing in this fund (June 2006) is 3.97%

My poorest performing fund, year-to-date, is the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Investor Shares (-.56.20%). My three-year rate of return for this fund is –5.41%.

My retirement portfolio currently is divided among the following two investment vehicles:

66.59%: Vanguard Roth IRA (YTD Return, -31.81%)
33.41%: Thrift Savings Plan (YTD Return, -14.22%)

Target allocation for my retirement portfolio is 72/28 Equity/Fixed Income. The seventy-two percent equity allocation is split equally between domestic and foreign equity; the foreign equity is split 2:1 between developed and emerging markets. Specifically, my target allocations are as follows:

12%: Domestic Large-Cap Value
12%: Domestic Small-Cap Value
12%: Domestic REIT
24%: Foreign Developed Markets (Large)
12%: Foreign Emerging Markets (Large)
28%: Fixed Income

As of 12/31/2008, my current retirement portfolio allocation is split 60/40, Equity/Fixed Income.

My Domestic Equity/Foreign Equity/Fixed Income is split 37/23/40

Specifically, my current allocations (as of 12/31/2008) are as follows.

12.09%: Domestic Large-Cap Value (VIVAX)
12.33%: Domestic Small-Cap Value (VISVX)
12.33%: Domestic REIT (VGSIX)
13.00%: Foreign Developed Markets – Large (12.27%, TSP ‘I’ Fund; 0.73%, VDMIX)
10.67%: Foreign Emerging Markets – Large (VEIEX)
39.57% Fixed Income (21.13%, TSP G Fund; 18.44%, Vanguard TIPS Fund)

(Total allocation does not add up because of rounding.)

(My current foreign equity and fixed income allocations are markedly different from my target foreign equity and fixed income allocations because I am positioning myself to invest in Vanguard’s new international small cap index fund (12% of my total allocation) and because I am positioning myself to split my foreign developed markets allocation into Vanguard’s Europe and Pacific index funds.)
Gordon
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Post by madsinger »

Using statsguy's numbers, I have updated the chart on the original post to show all portfolio's returns.

The newsletter portfolios have not held up as well during hard times for stocks. It has been pointed out to me in the past, that the "classification" that I've chosen for these portfolios is probably not correct, since these portfolios have higher stock percentages than my groupings. So, each year, I try to post one chart that has the newsletter portfolios "promoted" up one level to make them more aligned with their stock groupings. Here it is:

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR 
                  Dec      YTD     since  since   since   since 
                  2008     2008    2005   2003    2001    1999 
Hot Hands        -0.36%  -47.86%  -3.68%  8.59%   6.71%   9.84% 
Sheltered Sam     5.32%  -37.91%  -3.37%  5.92%   1.81%   3.29% 
Newsletter G      4.41%  -38.40%  -2.77%  5.32%   0.61%   5.59% 
Newsletter G-IND  3.11%  -40.30%  -3.50%  4.19%   0.46%   0.62% 
VFINX             1.08%  -37.02%  -5.30%  2.27%  -3.00%  -1.46% 
                              
s&d               5.68%  -30.16%  -1.33%  6.62%   3.01%   4.31% 
3 fund            3.77%  -30.74%  -1.27%  5.57%   0.99%   1.89% 
Newsletter CG     3.75%  -33.60%  -2.37%  4.78%   0.82%   3.83%    
LS G              2.69%  -34.39%  -3.28%  4.01%  -0.36%   0.75% 
                              
coffeehouse       5.86%  -20.25%   0.00%  5.91%   3.90%   4.66% 
Wellington        3.86%  -22.30%   0.84%  5.61%   3.79%   4.49% 
STAR              4.22%  -25.10%  -1.08%  4.62%   2.17%   3.51% 
Newsletter Inc    2.71%  -24.10%  -1.92%  3.01%   1.52%   1.81%    
LS MG             2.71%  -26.50%  -1.40%  4.19%   1.15%   1.98% 
                              
Wellesley         4.07%   -9.84%   2.33%  4.38%   4.79%   4.93% 
LS CG             2.33%  -19.52%  -0.13%  3.83%   2.14%   2.80% 

madsinger         5.00%  -28.85%  -1.19%                
More to come later...

-Brad.
DiehardDoc
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Thanks Paulob

Post by DiehardDoc »

Will look into USAGX.

Looks like it has recovered nicely as compared to VGPMX due to holdings in Gold stocks.
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Post by madsinger »

Here's a chart with the 1, 3, 5, and 10 year annualized returns for the portfolios:

Code: Select all

                  1 year  3 year 5 year 10 year
Hot Hands        -47.86% -10.61%  2.56%  9.84%
Sheltered Sam    -37.91%  -7.72%  0.66%  3.29%
VFINX            -37.02%  -8.44% -2.29% -1.46%
    
s&d              -30.16%  -4.58%  2.21%  4.31%
3 fund           -30.74%  -4.23%  1.49%  1.89%
Newsletter G     -38.40%  -7.08%  0.67%  5.59%
Newsletter G-IND -40.30%  -8.20% -0.04%  0.62%
LS G             -34.39%  -6.45% -0.30%  0.75%
   
coffeehouse      -20.25%  -1.91%  2.69%  4.66%
Wellington       -22.30%  -1.08%  2.82%  4.49%
STAR             -25.10%  -3.77%  1.34%  3.51%
LS MG            -26.50%  -3.66%  0.88%  1.98%
Newsletter CG    -33.60%  -5.83%  0.53%  3.83%
    
Wellesley         -9.84%   1.95%  3.36%  4.93%
LS CG            -19.52%  -1.61%  1.45%  2.80%
Newsletter Inc   -24.10%  -4.49%  0.06%  1.81%
    
madsinger        -28.85%  -4.40%  
and for those who like looking at lots of data, here's the 1-10 year annualized returns:

Code: Select all

                  1 year  2 year  3 year 4 year 5 year 6 year 7 year 8 year 9 year 10 year
Hot Hands        -47.86% -25.96% -10.61% -3.68%  2.56%  8.59%  5.75%  6.71%  7.91%  9.84%
Sheltered Sam    -37.91% -19.91%  -7.72% -3.37%  0.66%  5.92%  2.80%  1.81%  1.79%  3.29%
VFINX            -37.02% -18.53%  -8.44% -5.30% -2.29%  2.27% -1.64% -3.00% -3.69% -1.46%
          
s&d              -30.16% -14.84%  -4.58% -1.33%  2.21%  6.62%  4.04%  3.01%  2.95%  4.31%
3 fund           -30.74% -13.20%  -4.23% -1.27%  1.49%  5.57%  2.64%  0.99% -0.02%  1.89%
Newsletter G     -38.40% -17.68%  -7.08% -2.77%  0.67%  5.32%  1.66%  0.61%  2.64%  5.59%
Newsletter G-IND -40.30% -18.34%  -8.20% -3.50% -0.04%  4.19%  0.88%  0.46% -1.46%  0.62%
LS G             -34.39% -16.03%  -6.45% -3.28% -0.30%  4.01%  0.91% -0.36% -0.94%  0.75%
          
coffeehouse      -20.25%  -9.41%  -1.91%  0.00%  2.69%  5.91%  4.19%  3.90%  4.26%  4.66%
Wellington       -22.30%  -8.25%  -1.08%  0.84%  2.82%  5.61%  3.73%  3.79%  4.50%  4.49%
STAR             -25.10% -10.65%  -3.77% -1.08%  1.34%  4.62%  2.41%  2.17%  3.11%  3.51%
LS MG            -26.50% -11.17%  -3.66% -1.40%  0.88%  4.19%  1.98%  1.15%  0.92%  1.98%
Newsletter CG    -33.60% -15.08%  -5.83% -2.37%  0.53%  4.78%  1.45%  0.82%  2.21%  3.83%
          
Wellesley         -9.84%  -2.42%   1.95%  2.33%  3.36%  4.38%  4.42%  4.79%  5.99%  4.93%
LS CG            -19.52%  -7.21%  -1.61% -0.13%  1.45%  3.83%  2.46%  2.14%  2.25%  2.80%
Newsletter Inc   -24.10% -11.24%  -4.49% -1.92%  0.06%  3.01%  1.90%  1.52%  0.95%  1.81%
          
madsinger        -28.85% -13.46%  -4.40% -1.19%      
-Brad.
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paulob
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Post by paulob »

Brad wrote:
and for those who like looking at lots of data, here's the 1-10 year annualized returns:
I do!

Don't know if any of the portfolios date back 15 years, but here are the fund returns:

6.54% VFINX
8.31% Wellington
7.35% STAR
7.44% Wellesley
Paul
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Post by madsinger »

drgolf wrote:Also will you share you holdings?

Dominic
My portfolio is a slice-n-dice portfolio. It is currently:

66/5/3/26 stock/REIT/Precious Metal/Bond

Every year (or so), I bump up my "bond" portion by 1% and drop my "stock" portion by 1%. I keep my REIT and Precious Metals at 5% and 3% respectively, and they do not "count" towards my stock holdings.

My "Stock" holdings are divided:

75/25 US/International

With US divided:
40/20/20/20 Large Blend/Large Value/Small Blend/Small Value

and International:
40/20/20/20 Large/Large Value/Small/Emerging Market

My REIT, PM, and Bond portions are made up with single funds.

REIT: VGSIX (Vanguard REIT fund)
PM: VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining fund)
Bond: VBIRX (Vanguard Admiral Short Term Bond Index fund)

US Stock funds:

Vanguard Total Stock Market (taxable account) (LB)
S&P 500 index (company 401-k) (LB)
VIVAX (Vanguard Value Index) (LV)
DODGX (Dodge and Cox stock) (LV)
VMVIX (Vanguard Midcap Value Index) (50/50 LV/SV)
VTMSX (Vanguard Tax-managed Small Cap, taxable account) (SB)
VISVX (Vanguard Smallcap Value Index) (SV)
BRSIX (Bridgeway Ultrasmall Market fund) (micro)

International funds:

VGTSX (Vanguard Total International fund) (IL)
DODFX (Dodge and Cox Foreign) (IV)
VTRIX (Vanguard International Value) (IV)
VINEX (Vanguard International Explorer) (IS)
VEIEX (Vanguard Emerging Market) (EM)

I tend to rebalance more often than most people. This past year, I sold lots of bonds to buy lots of stocks. It's just what the market gave me.

-Brad.
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Post by investor »

Thanks Brad,

Bit late but always enjoy reading your monthly posts.

nero
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Post by Robert T »

.
Brad,

Thanks for the numbers.

FWIW – according the MS Money, here are my equivalent annualized returns since 2003 (IPS start). Don’t seem to be too far off track relative to your table. Portfolio is 75:25. A value and small cap tilt helped, together with a 50% intl. equity allocation. Obviously no guarantees going forward.

Code: Select all

Annualized return (%)

                     1 yr    2 yr    3 yr   4 yr   5 yr   6 yr

                   -28.7%  -12.6%   -3.3%   0.4%   3.8%   8.7%   

Robert
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fundtalk
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Post by fundtalk »

Does it depress anyone else when they see they would have been better off (actually, a lot better off) by simply investing everything into Wellington?

I've come to think that putting everything into Wellington during your accumulation years, then switching over to Wellesley during retirement would be a good investment plan. And, as simple as it gets.
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Post by paulob »

fundtalk wrote:Does it depress anyone else when they see they would have been better off (actually, a lot better off) by simply investing everything into Wellington?
I think you have to view things in perspective. I like comparing my portfolio to other portfolios, and some funds like Wellington are a portfolio in one fund. My returns are ahead of Wellington for the last 10 years but trail the 15 year mark.

Am I considering switching to Wellington then Wellesley? No I'm not. The returns in the report are time period specific. Wellington is around 64% stocks and the returns in the periods listed vary a lot by the AA. I tend to compare within the groupings that Brad has provided.

Wellington may have a higher return than S&D for the last ten years, but I am continuing to maintain a higher equity allocation. Your investing horizon has a lot to do with the decision between a Wellington and some of the other portfolios. 2008 has been the poster boy for long-term horizons for equities. If you look at Wellington has a higher 15 year return than VFINX, then maybe a 20 year horizon is more appropriate for high equity allocations.
Paul
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