REGISTRATION FOR 2009 BOGLEHEADS CONTEST

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Taylor Larimore
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REGISTRATION FOR 2009 BOGLEHEADS CONTEST

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Hi Bogleheads:

I am pleased to announce our ninth annual Boglehead Contest to show the futility of trying to forecast the stock market and to see who can outguess the best stock market Gurus. This is our record in 2008:

* We had 284 brave Bogleheads register their forecasts. Only two Bogleheads guessed how low the S&P 500 Index would go (Betelgeuse and gchan).

* We had official forecasts from 13 of the largest Wall Street firms. All thought the S&P 500 Index would go UP in 2008 (it went down -38.5%).

* 116 Bogleheads were better forecasters than the BEST of Wall Street (Morgan Stanley).

* 214 Bogleheads were better forecasters than the second best of Wall Street (JP Morgan).

* The S&P Index started last year at 1468. The average Boglehead guessed it would finish the year at 1512. The Average Wall Street firm forecast a year-end close of 1647. The S&P finished the year at 903.

* Our top-ten 2008 Boglehead Contest winners and forecast are:

1 Betelgeuse 876.00
2 gchan 869.47
3 Spawntilyoudie 1066.00
4 bf0123 1099.00
5 Quasimodo 1101.00
6 Russell 1145.00
7 Dead Man Walking 1160.00
8 iranutmeg 1174.00
9 Random Musings 1190.56
10 gkaplan 1212.70

http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/

CONGRATULATIONS to our top-ten winner, Betelgeuse, who has won the prize of an updated "Bogleheads' Guide to Investing" and also a book written and autographed by our mentor, Jack Bogle.

Think you can beat the experts? These are the S&P forecasts for 2009 from 12 of the best:

1250 James Paulsen, Wells Capital Management
1100 David Kostin, Goldman Sachs
1100 Thomas Lee, JP Morgan
1100 Jason Trennert, Strategas Research Partners
1050 Robert Doll, BlackRock
1025 Larry Adam, Deutsche Bank
1020 Christopher Hyzy, U.S. Trust
1000 Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1000 Jerry Webman, Oppenheimer Funds
975 Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch
975 Abhijlt Chakrabortti, Morgan Stanley
950 Allson Deans, Neuberger Berman

Now we get a chance to see who are the best Boglehead stock market forecasters in 2009. The rules are simple:

1. Guess the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2009.
2. Only one guess (no percentages)
3. Registration closes midnight January 10, 2009
4. In event of ties, the first guess wins.
5. Winner must PM me by January 10, 2010 (to confirm user name and mailing address)
6. Post your S&P forecast below.

Happy New Year and Good Luck!
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
LynnC
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1,333.33

Post by LynnC »

I'm sticking with this number. It shows HOPE! (1,333.33)

Thanks, Taylor

LynnC
Last edited by LynnC on Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sally
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Post by Sally »

2009 ending: 2013

Whoops, I meant 1013 though I like the looks of 2013 better!!!
Last edited by Sally on Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ron
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Post by Ron »

1235.64
Cookiekaikai
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Location: Katy, TX

Post by Cookiekaikai »

End of 2009 S&P at 950
Thanks All, Edmond
Norris
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Post by Norris »

S&P 500 on 12/31/2009: 1211

Happy New Year
Norris
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mudfud
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Post by mudfud »

1298
"Are you sure you have tested an a priori hypothesis?" | | Image
Avo
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Post by Avo »

I can't decide whether it will go up or down, so:

903
stan1
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Post by stan1 »

1000
RTR2006
Posts: 824
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Location: Near SF...

Post by RTR2006 »

End number for 2009: 1105

We'll see...

:D

RTR
ruud
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Location: san francisco bay area

Post by ruud »

966.48

--ruud
.
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Adrian Nenu
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Post by Adrian Nenu »

My optimistic prediction - 1155

Adrian
anenu@tampabay.rr.com
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JMacDonald
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Post by JMacDonald »

Hi,
My forecast is 857.85.
Best Wishes, | Joe
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Mel Lindauer
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Post by Mel Lindauer »

My WAG is 953.56.
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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Cb
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Post by Cb »

1060
gcturp
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Post by gcturp »

End of 2009: SP500 = 803



Also:
Yankees will suck (again) and spend even more money
Cubs will disappoint (again)
Rays will win it all this time
ziggy29
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Post by ziggy29 »

984.
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danwalk
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Post by danwalk »

S&P on 12/31/09: 1071.

Happy New Year!
Image | "Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy."—Jack Bogle
mschmitt
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Post by mschmitt »

My guess is that 2009 will disappoint... S&P500 = 752
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craigr
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Post by craigr »

1128 - Up 25% from today.
IMPORTANT NOTE: My old website crawlingroad{dot}com is no longer available or run by me.
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Bruce
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Post by Bruce »

1009

Happy New Year,
Bruce | | Winner of the 2017 Bogleheads Contest | | "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Dan Kohn
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Post by Dan Kohn »

1084, please. And thanks for running the contest!
NYCAB
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Post by NYCAB »

707
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Soaker
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Post by Soaker »

Soaker guesses 1140.62.

I took the 12/31/1999 close of 1469.25 and applied an annualized return of -2.5% for the decade. :(
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Quasimodo
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Post by Quasimodo »

444

Thanks for running the contest, Taylor!

John
Many wealthy people are little more than janitors of their possessions. | | Frank Lloyd Wright, architect (1867-1959)
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theduke
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Post by theduke »

1003
tonythered
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Post by tonythered »

1096 (though I hope higher!).
hudson
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Post by hudson »

1020
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Rick Ferri
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Post by Rick Ferri »

1215

Rick Ferri
earlyout
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Post by earlyout »

I'll guess 1144.

EO
n42
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Post by n42 »

680
rsbe
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S&P 2009

Post by rsbe »

750
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LonePrairie
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Location: North Dakota

Post by LonePrairie »

My guess is 1,083
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DelrayDave
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My Guess: 980

Post by DelrayDave »

My guess is 980.
bac573
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Post by bac573 »

957.18


Modest 6% increase.
One thing to know about this town; not a person doesn't want me underground.
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DRiP Guy
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Post by DRiP Guy »

1089


(I chose that number independently, but then I looked at what others were guessing and noted a lot of people seem to be 'in the neighborhood' with my guess. Once the entry period is closed, I'll make a distribution analysis of all the entries...)
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renditt
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Post by renditt »

1208
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squirl
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1023.45

Post by squirl »

1023.45
LFT_PFT
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Post by LFT_PFT »

My guess: 900
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camper
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Post by camper »

Dec 31, 2009 S&P 500 1153
sport
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Post by sport »

1111.11

Jeff
bluecrabster
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Post by bluecrabster »

Closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2009

1083.90

Happy New Year to everyone!

Wes
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LGRZEMKOWSKI
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Post by LGRZEMKOWSKI »

I feel another year of PAIN:

452

Larry G
TIME the most precious commodity!
dandetour
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Post by dandetour »

1057

Dan
UKbloke
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Post by UKbloke »

1468.
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mijo40
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Post by mijo40 »

A nice upturn in 2009.

I will try 1173.90

Milan
wilksdr
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Post by wilksdr »

I'm guessing a close at 650. We'll have a big run up to around 1100-1150 through March, and then another crash to near 500 this time.

End of year 650.
hudson4351
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Post by hudson4351 »

I will guess 975.
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Unormal
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Post by Unormal »

903 * average inflation = 930
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wbond
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Post by wbond »

1000
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