REGISTRATION FOR 2009 BOGLEHEADS CONTEST

Taylor Larimore · Post by **Taylor Larimore** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:08 pm

Hi Bogleheads:

I am pleased to announce our ninth annual Boglehead Contest to show the futility of trying to forecast the stock market and to see who can outguess the best stock market Gurus. This is our record in 2008:

* We had 284 brave Bogleheads register their forecasts. Only two Bogleheads guessed how low the S&P 500 Index would go (Betelgeuse and gchan).

* We had official forecasts from 13 of the largest Wall Street firms. All thought the S&P 500 Index would go UP in 2008 (it went down -38.5%).

* 116 Bogleheads were better forecasters than the BEST of Wall Street (Morgan Stanley).

* 214 Bogleheads were better forecasters than the second best of Wall Street (JP Morgan).

* The S&P Index started last year at 1468. The average Boglehead guessed it would finish the year at 1512. The Average Wall Street firm forecast a year-end close of 1647. The S&P finished the year at 903.

* Our top-ten 2008 Boglehead Contest winners and forecast are:

1 Betelgeuse 876.00
2 gchan 869.47
3 Spawntilyoudie 1066.00
4 bf0123 1099.00
5 Quasimodo 1101.00
6 Russell 1145.00
7 Dead Man Walking 1160.00
8 iranutmeg 1174.00
9 Random Musings 1190.56
10 gkaplan 1212.70

http://www.lostsprings.com/diehards/contest/

CONGRATULATIONS to our top-ten winner, Betelgeuse, who has won the prize of an updated "Bogleheads' Guide to Investing" and also a book written and autographed by our mentor, Jack Bogle.

Think you can beat the experts? These are the S&P forecasts for 2009 from 12 of the best:

1250 James Paulsen, Wells Capital Management
1100 David Kostin, Goldman Sachs
1100 Thomas Lee, JP Morgan
1100 Jason Trennert, Strategas Research Partners
1050 Robert Doll, BlackRock
1025 Larry Adam, Deutsche Bank
1020 Christopher Hyzy, U.S. Trust
1000 Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1000 Jerry Webman, Oppenheimer Funds
975 Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch
975 Abhijlt Chakrabortti, Morgan Stanley
950 Allson Deans, Neuberger Berman

Now we get a chance to see who are the best Boglehead stock market forecasters in 2009. The rules are simple:

1. Guess the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2009.
2. Only one guess (no percentages)
3. Registration closes midnight January 10, 2009
4. In event of ties, the first guess wins.
5. Winner must PM me by January 10, 2010 (to confirm user name and mailing address)
6. Post your S&P forecast below.

Happy New Year and Good Luck!

LynnC · Post by **LynnC** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:18 pm

I'm sticking with this number. It shows HOPE! (1,333.33)

Thanks, Taylor

LynnC

Sally · Post by **Sally** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:18 pm

2009 ending: 2013

Whoops, I meant 1013 though I like the looks of 2013 better!!!

Ron · Post by **Ron** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:20 pm

1235.64

Cookiekaikai · Post by **Cookiekaikai** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:21 pm

End of 2009 S&P at 950

Norris · Post by **Norris** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:21 pm

S&P 500 on 12/31/2009: 1211

Happy New Year
Norris

mudfud · Post by **mudfud** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:25 pm

Avo · Post by **Avo** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:26 pm

I can't decide whether it will go up or down, so:

903

stan1 · Post by **stan1** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:26 pm

RTR2006 · Post by **RTR2006** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:27 pm

End number for 2009: 1105

We'll see...

RTR

ruud · Post by **ruud** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:31 pm

966.48

--ruud

Adrian Nenu · Post by **Adrian Nenu** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:34 pm

My optimistic prediction - 1155

Adrian
anenu@tampabay.rr.com

JMacDonald · Post by **JMacDonald** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:36 pm

Hi,
My forecast is 857.85.

Post by **Mel Lindauer** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:41 pm

My WAG is 953.56.

Cb · Post by Cb » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:42 pm

gcturp · Post by **gcturp** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:43 pm

End of 2009: SP500 = 803

Also:
Yankees will suck (again) and spend even more money
Cubs will disappoint (again)
Rays will win it all this time

ziggy29 · Post by **ziggy29** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:47 pm

danwalk · Post by **danwalk** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:48 pm

S&P on 12/31/09: 1071.

Happy New Year!

mschmitt · Post by **mschmitt** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:51 pm

My guess is that 2009 will disappoint... S&P500 = 752

craigr · Post by **craigr** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:53 pm

1128 - Up 25% from today.

Bruce · Post by **Bruce** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:00 pm

1009

Happy New Year,

Dan Kohn · Post by **Dan Kohn** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:01 pm

1084, please. And thanks for running the contest!

NYCAB · Post by **NYCAB** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:04 pm

Soaker · Post by **Soaker** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:04 pm

Soaker guesses 1140.62.

I took the 12/31/1999 close of 1469.25 and applied an annualized return of -2.5% for the decade.

Quasimodo · Post by **Quasimodo** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:05 pm

444

Thanks for running the contest, Taylor!

John

theduke · Post by **theduke** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:06 pm

tonythered · Post by **tonythered** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:14 pm

1096 (though I hope higher!).

hudson · Post by **hudson** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:18 pm

Rick Ferri · Post by **Rick Ferri** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:21 pm

1215

Rick Ferri

earlyout · Post by **earlyout** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:34 pm

I'll guess 1144.

EO

n42 · Post by **n42** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:34 pm

rsbe · Post by **rsbe** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:40 pm

LonePrairie · Post by **LonePrairie** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:42 pm

My guess is 1,083

DelrayDave · Post by **DelrayDave** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:42 pm

My guess is 980.

bac573 · Post by **bac573** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:44 pm

957.18

Modest 6% increase.

DRiP Guy · Post by **DRiP Guy** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:46 pm

1089

(I chose that number independently, but then I looked at what others were guessing and noted a lot of people seem to be 'in the neighborhood' with my guess. Once the entry period is closed, I'll make a distribution analysis of all the entries...)

renditt · Post by **renditt** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:48 pm

squirl · Post by **squirl** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:54 pm

1023.45

LFT_PFT · Post by **LFT_PFT** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:59 pm

My guess: 900

camper · Post by **camper** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:05 pm

Dec 31, 2009 S&P 500 1153

sport · Post by **sport** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:06 pm

1111.11

Jeff

bluecrabster · Post by **bluecrabster** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:13 pm

Closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2009

1083.90

Happy New Year to everyone!

Wes

LGRZEMKOWSKI · Post by **LGRZEMKOWSKI** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:33 pm

I feel another year of PAIN:

452

Larry G

dandetour · Post by **dandetour** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:42 pm

1057

Dan

UKbloke · Post by **UKbloke** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:43 pm

1468.

mijo40 · Post by **mijo40** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:48 pm

A nice upturn in 2009.

I will try 1173.90

Milan

wilksdr · Post by **wilksdr** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:55 pm

I'm guessing a close at 650. We'll have a big run up to around 1100-1150 through March, and then another crash to near 500 this time.

End of year 650.

hudson4351 · Post by **hudson4351** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 6:06 pm

I will guess 975.

Unormal · Post by **Unormal** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 6:11 pm

903 * average inflation = 930

wbond · Post by **wbond** » Thu Jan 01, 2009 6:16 pm

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