Gold $1600 Oz - When?

[watchnerd]

With all the most recent news about corona virus, I would have thought my pitifully small "play account" allocation to GLDM would be skyrocketing.

But as of close of market on 1/24/20:

GLDM (gold ETF "mini shares"): +0.51%

vs

VGLT (long Treasuries): +0.82%


So gold is up, but losing to long Treasuries, in comparison.

Isn't a disease epidemic, especially one that hits emerging markets / China first supposed to be one of those fear situations where gold shines?

But gold still hasn't broken $1600 / oz.....

[z3r0c00l]

This so called pandemic has caused less harm in two months than the seasonal flu does in an hour during peak season. I can think of several dozen other things far more threatening than this novel virus right now (including a few other viruses) but probably can't talk about most of them in this forum.

Anyway, what good will gold do if you die from a pandemic?

[hdas]

[Deleted]

[watchnerd]

Futures traded up to 1613 the night of the US killing of Soleimani. Cheers

That was a month ago.

And the price didn't stick.

[Broken Man 1999]

Well, this outbreak is worrisome.

China has been known to keep these type things close to the vest. I think it is foolish to believe we are getting honest info from them.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were far more deaths than have been reported.

I hope we can shut it down here before we have real numbers affected.

Broken Man 1999

[BH_RedRan]

I would think silver, with its anti-microbial properties would be better to have on hand.

[watchnerd]

I would think silver, with its anti-microbial properties would be better to have on hand.

It's a virus....

P.S. I had no idea silver has anti microbial properties.

[BH_RedRan]

I meant that tongue in cheek of course but I have done consulting work for a company that produces a silver-based cleaner that has residual anti-microbial properties, mainly used for food preparation surfaces. I'm not sure if it harms viruses though.

[hicabob]

from webmd
"Almost everyone gets a coronavirus infection at least once in their life, most likely as a young child. In the United States, coronaviruses are more common in the fall and winter, but anyone can come down with a coronavirus infection at any time."

https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus#1


Apparently the Chinese one is an extra nasty strain

[watchnerd]

Anyway, what good will gold do if you die from a pandemic?

Not quite following...

What good does anything in my portfolio do if I'm dead?

[z3r0c00l]

Anyway, what good will gold do if you die from a pandemic?

Not quite following...

What good does anything in my portfolio do if I'm dead?

Why would people buy gold if they are afraid of a disease? Buy the stocks of companies that make antiviral medicines if you want to profit off a pandemic.

[Dottie57]

Anyway, what good will gold do if you die from a pandemic?

Not quite following...

What good does anything in my portfolio do if I'm dead?

Why would people buy gold if they are afraid of a disease? Buy the stocks of companies that make antiviral medicines if you want to profit off a pandemic.

+1. Better to have enough food stocked to wait out a pandemic until it dies down.

[watchnerd]

Why would people buy gold if they are afraid of a disease? Buy the stocks of companies that make antiviral medicines if you want to profit off a pandemic.

Don't ask me...but apparently they did.

They just bought more Treasuries.

Or at least they both went up at the same time while stocks went down.

[z3r0c00l]

Why would people buy gold if they are afraid of a disease? Buy the stocks of companies that make antiviral medicines if you want to profit off a pandemic.

Don't ask me...but apparently they did.

They just bought more Treasuries.

Or at least they both went up at the same time while stocks went down.

I think it is way too easy to try and link changes in a security to something that happened that day. I am tickled when the articles that say "stocks decline on news of..." are obsolete a few hours later when stocks reverse. They are replaced with articles like "stocks are up on news of..."

[Pu239]

Why would people buy gold if they are afraid of a disease? Buy the stocks of companies that make antiviral medicines if you want to profit off a pandemic.

Don't ask me...but apparently they did.

They just bought more Treasuries.

Or at least they both went up at the same time while stocks went down.

Why do you conclude that the disease is the reason for a rise in price? Many factors affect price. If the gold-producing work force in China was adversely affected by the virus, that might temporarily cause price to rise. I don't see the connection.

[unclescrooge]

With all the most recent news about corona virus, I would have thought my pitifully small "play account" allocation to GLDM would be skyrocketing.

But as of close of market on 1/24/20:

GLDM (gold ETF "mini shares"): +0.51%

vs

VGLT (long Treasuries): +0.82%


So gold is up, but losing to long Treasuries, in comparison.

Isn't a disease epidemic, especially one that hits emerging markets / China first supposed to be one of those fear situations where gold shines?

But gold still hasn't broken $1600 / oz.....

Why would you expect gold to go up?

Do you have the same expectation after a severe flu season?

[nisiprius]

Gold was supposed to hit $5,000 per ounce by October, 2014.

(Results of Google search on gold to reach 5000 schiff)

www.cnbc.com › ...
Think Gold's Pricey Now? Wait Until It Hits $5000: Schiff
Oct 25, 2012 - Peter Schiff: Gold to $5,000 in Two Years 1:00 PM ET Thu, 25 Oct 2012. "I think gold is going to go up against all currencies…central banks ...

Or maybe a little later...

www.cnbc.com › 2015/12/17 › gold-is-still-going-to-5000-peter-schiff
Gold is still going to $5,000: Peter Schiff - CNBC.com
Dec 18, 2015 - On CNBC's “Futures Now” Thursday, Peter Schiff stood behind his previous call that gold will reach $5,000. “It's still going to go there,”

Or maybe a little later...

Peter Schiff Explains Why We Could See $5,000 Gold (Video ...
Oct 12, 2018 - Peter Schiff Explains Why We Could See $5,000 Gold (Video).

Or maybe a little later...

www.kitco.com › news ›
$5,000 Gold Price Is Possible, Here's How - Peter Schiff | Kitco ...
Jul 30, 2019 - Longer-term, gold prices are headed much higher than current levels and could even go to $5,000 an ounce, this according to Peter Schiff, ...

[willthrill81]

Anyway, what good will gold do if you die from a pandemic?

Not quite following...

What good does anything in my portfolio do if I'm dead?

Why would people buy gold if they are afraid of a disease? Buy the stocks of companies that make antiviral medicines if you want to profit off a pandemic.

+1. Better to have enough food stocked to wait out a pandemic until it dies down.

Already done.

[JBTX]

I'm not sure how a pandemic pushes prices up.

A widespread pandemic would push world gdp down. While there is a flight to safety aspect of gold, there is also a inflation hedge aspect (perceived or real) and lower gdp tends to be deflationary.

Conflict in the middle east brings worry of oil supply shocks >> inflation, although the impact of such shocks are much more muted now vs historically.

[watchnerd]

With all the most recent news about corona virus, I would have thought my pitifully small "play account" allocation to GLDM would be skyrocketing.

But as of close of market on 1/24/20:

GLDM (gold ETF "mini shares"): +0.51%

vs

VGLT (long Treasuries): +0.82%


So gold is up, but losing to long Treasuries, in comparison.

Isn't a disease epidemic, especially one that hits emerging markets / China first supposed to be one of those fear situations where gold shines?

But gold still hasn't broken $1600 / oz.....

Why would you expect gold to go up?

Do you have the same expectation after a severe flu season?

Why does anyone expect gold to go up at anything greater than inflation?

It doesn't do anything......

[watchnerd]

I'm not sure how a pandemic pushes prices up.

Me, neither.

Yet....it moved up just like the other 'flight to safety', long Treasuries.

[Pu239]

I'm not sure how a pandemic pushes prices up.

Me, neither.

Yet....it moved up just like the other 'flight to safety', long Treasuries.

But you suggested it did. How does this thread differ from your last thread on gold price that was locked? Not seeing the value here.

[watchnerd]

But you suggested it did. How does this thread differ from your last thread on gold price that was locked? Not seeing the value here.

I'm saying I don't know why. That's different from saying it did or didn't happen.

[BanquetBeer]

You're talking a <1% change... I don't really know how this compares to average fluctuations but I looked up a chart and it appears there is regulare large swings in gold price. How do you know this swing is related to the virus outbreak or a recent increase in weddings/proposals in india?

"Indian households are known to hold more gold than most other nations, largely in the form of jewelry, and the country itself also places a high value on gold storage. India holds 50 tons more gold than the European Central Bank, with 557.8 tons."
https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/photos/ ... ss-BBGFOaB

[Broken Man 1999]

I would think silver, with its anti-microbial properties would be better to have on hand.

It's a virus....

P.S. I had no idea silver has anti microbial properties.

I use silver sulfadiazine for skin issues occasionally. Works great, heals issues fast.

Broken Man 1999

[grayfox]

FYI: all three of the monetary metals Cu, Ag, Au kill bacteria.

Antimicrobial properties of copper
Medical uses of silver
To Kill Superbacteria, Bring on the Bling


Here is Gold and CPI data.

Code: Select all

        Average
        Closing CPI     CPI-Adj CPI-Adj
Year    Price                   Price
1969	41.10	36.700	6.97	286.31
1970	35.96	38.800	6.59	236.94
1971	40.80	40.500	6.31	257.55
1972	58.17	41.800	6.12	355.78
1973	97.12	44.400	5.76	559.22
1974	158.76	49.300	5.19	823.29
1975	160.87	53.800	4.75	764.45
1976	124.80	56.900	4.49	560.74
1977	147.84	60.600	4.22	623.70
1978	193.57	65.200	3.92	759.01
1979	307.01	72.600	3.52	1081.12
1980	614.75	82.400	3.10	1907.34
1981	459.16	90.900	2.81	1291.39
1982	376.11	96.500	2.65	996.43
1983	423.71	99.600	2.57	1087.59
1984	360.65	103.900	2.46	887.42
1985	317.42	107.600	2.38	754.19
1986	368.20	109.600	2.33	858.88
1987	446.84	113.600	2.25	1005.61
1988	436.78	118.300	2.16	943.92
1989	381.27	124.000	2.06	786.08
1990	383.73	130.700	1.96	750.60
1991	362.34	136.200	1.88	680.14
1992	343.87	140.300	1.82	626.61
1993	360.05	144.500	1.77	637.02
1994	384.16	148.200	1.73	662.71
1995	384.07	152.400	1.68	644.29
1996	387.73	156.900	1.63	631.78
1997	331.00	160.500	1.59	527.24
1998	294.12	163.000	1.57	461.31
1999	278.86	166.600	1.53	427.93
2000	279.29	172.200	1.48	414.65
2001	271.19	177.100	1.44	391.48
2002	310.08	179.880	1.42	440.71
2003	363.83	183.960	1.39	505.63
2004	409.53	188.900	1.35	554.26
2005	444.99	195.300	1.31	582.51
2006	604.34	201.600	1.27	766.39
2007	696.43	207.342	1.23	858.71
2008	872.37	215.303	1.19	1035.88
2009	973.66	214.537	1.19	1160.28
2010	1226.66	218.056	1.17	1438.18
2011	1573.16	224.939	1.14	1787.99
2012	1668.86	229.594	1.11	1858.31
2013	1409.51	232.957	1.10	1546.86
2014	1266.06	236.736	1.08	1367.25
2015	1158.86	237.017	1.08	1250.00
2016	1251.92	240.008	1.07	1333.55
2017	1260.39	245.120	1.04	1314.57
2018	1268.93	251.107	1.02	1291.92
2019	1393.34	255.657	1.00	1393.34
2020	1554.83	255.657	1.00	1554.83

Summary Statistics:

Code: Select all

        Average
        Closing                 CPI-Adj    
        Price                   Price

MIN	35.96			236.94
MEAN	563.83			879.31
MEDIAN	382.50			765.42
MAX	1668.86			1907.34
SD	462.13			425.64
NUM	52			52

The mean price adjusted for CPI was $879 per ounce. The range over past 52 years was from 236 to 1900.
Or 879 -643/+1028

At current 1571, rounded to the nearest 100 it is now about 1600.

IMHO, Gold anywhere between 1000 and 2000 would be quite normal, and not unexpected.

Sources:
Gold Price: https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/histor ... year-chart
CPI: https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Con ... oaded=true

[abuss368]

Anyway, what good will gold do if you die from a pandemic?

Not quite following...

What good does anything in my portfolio do if I'm dead?

Why would people buy gold if they are afraid of a disease? Buy the stocks of companies that make antiviral medicines if you want to profit off a pandemic.

+1. Better to have enough food stocked to wait out a pandemic until it dies down.

Nothing bad about having a little food supply.

[bertilak]

When?

2011

[Emg]

It's not clear to me why people think gold will become so valuable in a global catastrophe. If things really break down, I'm going to swap my bag of potatoes for some eggs, not your questionable coins. How do I know if that's real gold? How do ensure it's solid and the correct weight? Most people haven't handled gold coins in generations now.

I never watched "The Walking Dead". Were they using gold as a medium of exchange? Or did they trade for a good rifle and ammunition?

[grayfox]

...If things really break down, I'm going to swap my bag of potatoes for some eggs...

You're talking about barter.

Adam Smith on the origin of money
Markets emerged, in his view, out of the division of labor, by which individuals began to specialize in specific crafts and hence had to depend on others for subsistence goods. These goods were first exchanged by barter. Specialization depended on trade, but was hindered by the "double coincidence of wants" which barter requires, i.e., for the exchange to occur, each participant must want what the other has. To complete this hypothetical history, craftsmen would stockpile one particular good, be it salt or metal, that they thought no one would refuse. This is the origin of money according to Smith. Money, as a universally desired medium of exchange, allows each half of the transaction to be separated.

Barter is inefficient because it requires the double coincidence of wants. Some medium of exchange, i.e. money, naturally arises to separate the barter into two transactions. Instead of trading potatoes for eggs directly. A gives B money for potatoes. Then B gives C money for eggs. E.g. in prisons, the medium of exchange that arises naturally is cigarettes.

The Wikipedia article discusses some other limitations of barter that you can read about.

Barter won't take you very far for trade. Too many limitations. Something will become the medium of exchange in short order. Probably not anything organic, like eggs or potatoes or canned food, because of limited shelf life. Maybe it will be .22 or 9mm cartridges. Maybe silver coins. Probably not Gold, unless for very large transactions. But who knows?

But I think most people are probably holding Gold, not so much for global zombie apocalypse, but to protect against hyperinflation or devaluation of their local currency.

[willthrill81]

It's not clear to me why people think gold will become so valuable in a global catastrophe. If things really break down, I'm going to swap my bag of potatoes for some eggs, not your questionable coins. How do I know if that's real gold? How do ensure it's solid and the correct weight? Most people haven't handled gold coins in generations now.

I never watched "The Walking Dead". Were they using gold as a medium of exchange? Or did they trade for a good rifle and ammunition?

The untestable theory is that precious metals would be useful for helping to rebuild one's finances after the catastrophe is over (i.e. once order is reestablished). If true, then you would also need to store the supplies necessary to reasonable ensure that you could make it through said catastrophe.

[whodidntante]

Well, this outbreak is worrisome.

China has been known to keep these type things close to the vest. I think it is foolish to believe we are getting honest info from them.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were far more deaths than have been reported.

It's also possible that the pathogen isn't as threatening as reported. I honestly think our society would be better off if ALL 24-hour cable news organizations ceased operations. The incentive to sensationalize is too high.

[willthrill81]

Well, this outbreak is worrisome.

China has been known to keep these type things close to the vest. I think it is foolish to believe we are getting honest info from them.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were far more deaths than have been reported.

It's also possible that the pathogen isn't as threatening as reported. I honestly think our society would be better off if ALL 24-hour cable news organizations ceased operations. The incentive to sensationalize is too high.

The 'news' is designed to instill fear in order to keep people glued to the screen. Ignoring it almost entirely has made me happier and a better investor.

[firebirdparts]

Gold is collectible. Disease should be depressing the price of gold. I would have thought disease is deflationary.

[willthrill81]

Gold is collectible. Disease should be depressing the price of gold. I would have thought disease is deflationary.

Historically, fear generally leads to higher gold prices.

[Corsair]

DW and I have a vacation planned for Korea and Japan in a few months and will cancel to play it safe if we need to... but are hopeful it clears up...

It's crazy someone could have it up to 14 days without symptoms and be infecting others that whole time period.

I'm holding onto my gold ETF positions.

At a Sunday press conference, Ma said someone with the virus could show no symptoms they have the coronavirus anytime between a day and 14 days, CBS News previously reported. During that time, an asymptomatic person is also infectious and could spread the coronavirus to others, Ma said, which makes it difficult to stop its spread.

People with flu are most contagious in the first three to four days after their illness begins. Most healthy adults may be able to infect others beginning 1 day before symptoms develop and up to 5 to 7 days after becoming sick. Children and some people with weakened immune systems may pass the virus for longer than 7 days.

Symptoms can begin about 2 days (but can range from 1 to 4 days) after the virus enters the body. That means that you may be able to pass on the flu to someone else before you know you are sick, as well as while you are sick. Some people can be infected with the flu virus but have no symptoms. During this time, those people may still spread the virus to others.

[Phineas J. Whoopee]

The premise is silly. Gold and world events do not move in lockstep, or even in lightly tied together step, regardless of what prewritten lines G. Gordon Liddy might deliver in commercials.

Gold. Gold! GOLD! Send us your worthless fiat and we'll send you our GOLD!

PJW

[manatee2005]

It's not clear to me why people think gold will become so valuable in a global catastrophe. If things really break down, I'm going to swap my bag of potatoes for some eggs, not your questionable coins. How do I know if that's real gold? How do ensure it's solid and the correct weight? Most people haven't handled gold coins in generations now.

I never watched "The Walking Dead". Were they using gold as a medium of exchange? Or did they trade for a good rifle and ammunition?

I wouldn't be using a TV show that's based on a comic book as a blue print of what will happen in an apocalypse.

[nisiprius]

...E.g. in prisons, the medium of exchange that arises naturally is cigarettes...

I thought I'd read somewhere that nowadays it is "soups," i.e. packages of Ramen noodle soup.

Yep... Ramen has become the black-market currency in American prisons

...the noodles are overtaking tobacco as the preferred underground currency that inmates use in prisons, according to a new study by Michael Gibson-Light, a doctoral candidate in the University of Arizona School of Sociology....

Inmates often used instant ramen packs to barter for other food items, clothes, hygiene products and even services, Gibson-Light observed. At times, he said, he saw prisoners put down ramen packs, or "soups," as literal bargaining chips during card games. According to the study, one inmate put it succinctly: "Soup is money in here."

Gibson-Light said he noted that the move away from a "luxury" currency such as cigarettes occurred even though the prison had not banned smoking or tobacco products.

Read the article for more details and explanations....

[Phineas J. Whoopee]

...E.g. in prisons, the medium of exchange that arises naturally is cigarettes...

I thought I'd read somewhere that nowadays it is "soups," i.e. packages of Ramen noodle soup.

Yep... Ramen has become the black-market currency in American prisons

...the noodles are overtaking tobacco as the preferred underground currency that inmates use in prisons, according to a new study by Michael Gibson-Light, a doctoral candidate in the University of Arizona School of Sociology....

Inmates often used instant ramen packs to barter for other food items, clothes, hygiene products and even services, Gibson-Light observed. At times, he said, he saw prisoners put down ramen packs, or "soups," as literal bargaining chips during card games. According to the study, one inmate put it succinctly: "Soup is money in here."

Gibson-Light said he noted that the move away from a "luxury" currency such as cigarettes occurred even though the prison had not banned smoking or tobacco products.

Read the article for more details and explanations....

I don't disagree with the point, but I suspect ramen noodles with flavo(u)r packets are more readily available in prison commissaries than US gold buffaloes. They may or may not be harder to protect, if anybody knows you have some.

PJW

[nisiprius]

I was... intrigued... by the following article: Litecoin 'Digital Silver' Narrative is Proven Wrong, New Data Shows. You have to read it, but people--or at least the writer--apparently expected to find that the price of Litecoin and silver moved in parallel, parallel enough to be exploitable in some way.

Our data — from May 2013 until December 2019 — shows that Bitcoin and Litecoin returns are very positively correlated (0.67)... Meanwhile, the correlation between silver and Litecoin returns is close to zero (0.026), which is similar to Bitcoin’s correlation with silver (0.0025).

I'm surprised that the author didn't end by touting Litecoin as a great way to diversify your silver holdings...

[Steve Reading]

Why would people buy gold if they are afraid of a disease? Buy the stocks of companies that make antiviral medicines if you want to profit off a pandemic.

Don't ask me...but apparently they did.

They just bought more Treasuries.

Or at least they both went up at the same time while stocks went down.

I think it is way too easy to try and link changes in a security to something that happened that day. I am tickled when the articles that say "stocks decline on news of..." are obsolete a few hours later when stocks reverse. They are replaced with articles like "stocks are up on news of..."

Excellent point and all examples of the Narrative Fallacy.

[grayfox]

One other thing. Someone asked how do you know if it's real gold. This guy shows how how: What is it worth? How to test and value gold.

You do a streak test with the Gold in question. Then you use various concentrations of Aqua Regia which is a mixture of hydrochloric acid and nitric acid. Different concentrations will dissolve 10 karet, 14 karat, 18 karat, 22 karat gold.

See how easy it is? You just need the test kit, which he sells for $40. Try running this test on the Gold in your portfolio and see how it comes out.

[columbia]

Anyway, what good will gold do if you die from a pandemic?

Not quite following...

What good does anything in my portfolio do if I'm dead?

Why would people buy gold if they are afraid of a disease? Buy the stocks of companies that make antiviral medicines if you want to profit off a pandemic.

People would do that because they expect a major downturn in the market (as a result of the disease spreading) and for owning gold to pay off big.

YMMV on that strategy...

[watchnerd]

People would do that because they expect a major downturn in the market (as a result of the disease spreading) and for owning gold to pay off big.

YMMV on that strategy...

Today again long Treasuries and gold seem to be going up when the market goes down.

The news media is blaming more virus fears.

As of right now, for the day so far:

VGLT (long Tresuries): +1.21%

GLDM (gold mini shares): +0.64%

VTI (US TSM): -1.41%


The ETF seems to be lagging the spot price of gold, which is posted elsewhere as:

$1,584.25

[unclescrooge]

People would do that because they expect a major downturn in the market (as a result of the disease spreading) and for owning gold to pay off big.

YMMV on that strategy...

Today again long Treasuries and gold seem to be going up when the market goes down.

The news media is blaming more virus fears.

As of right now, for the day so far:

VGLT (long Tresuries): +1.21%

GLDM (gold mini shares): +0.64%

VTI (US TSM): -1.41%


The ETF seems to be lagging the spot price of gold, which is posted elsewhere as:

$1,584.25

Gold miners ETF (GLDX) is up 4.3%

Bitcoin ETF (GBTC) is up 2.6%

[watchnerd]

Back up again.

$1589/oz now.

[willthrill81]

Back up again.

$1589/oz now.

Maybe you were just quicker on the draw than the market. Keep that up, and you could make a fortune.

[grayfox]

When does the Gold market trade?
Right now, Sunday 02-Feb-20 21:00 UTC it shows market closed, and I think its been closed since Friday 31-Jan-20 at 21:59 UTC.

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/?symbo ... C%3AXAUUSD

[Forester]

The mean price adjusted for CPI was $879 per ounce. The range over past 52 years was from 236 to 1900.
Or 879 -643/+1028

At current 1571, rounded to the nearest 100 it is now about 1600.

IMHO, Gold anywhere between 1000 and 2000 would be quite normal, and not unexpected.

Sources:
Gold Price: https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/histor ... year-chart
CPI: https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Con ... oaded=true

Yes; gold ain't exactly cheap. The gold producer index could double but this is all small beer compared to the early 2000s.