madsinger monthly report (October 2019)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% VVIAX, 5% VSMAX, 15% VSIAX, 10% VGSLX, 3% IAU, 5% each VEUSX, VPADX, VEMAX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                  CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Oct     YTD     since   since   since   since
                  2019    2019    2016    2014    2009    1999
VFINX             2.16%  23.14%  13.04%  11.00%  14.09%   6.34%
Sheltered Sam     2.16%  19.33%  10.50%   7.94%  11.88%   7.67%
Hot Hands         2.54%  23.81%   4.55%   3.81%  10.41%  10.14%
                  
Newsletter G-IND  1.36%  19.60%  11.33%   9.09%  13.47%   7.11%
Newsletter G      2.32%  19.30%  11.21%   9.41%  13.46%   9.61%
LS G              2.07%  17.38%   9.40%   7.14%  10.37%   5.64%
3 fund            2.14%  17.63%   9.45%   6.99%  10.20%   6.13%
s&d               1.97%  17.04%   8.49%   6.58%  10.12%   7.29%

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Newsletter CG     2.10%  16.90%  10.63%   8.98%  12.37%   8.19%
Wellington        1.42%  18.11%  10.23%   8.35%  10.77%   7.71%
STAR              1.96%  16.79%   9.05%   7.13%  10.02%   6.85%
coffeehouse       1.29%  15.82%   7.84%   6.53%   9.27%   7.02%
LS MG             1.54%  15.27%   8.16%   6.43%   8.94%   5.54%
                  
Newsletter Inc    1.38%  17.50%   9.72%   8.57%  10.82%   6.40%
Wellesley         0.62%  14.37%   7.65%   6.60%   8.65%   6.85%
LS CG             1.02%  13.13%   6.86%   5.64%   7.42%   5.17%
                  
madsinger         1.52%  15.19%   8.10%   5.78%   9.40%   
madsinger PP      1.07%  15.43%   7.85%         

[madsinger]

October was a pretty comfortable month for the markets. US stocks up about 2%, International stocks up 3-4%, over bonds up slightly, although Long Bonds were down about -1%. For the permanent portfolio, US stocks and gold up over +2%, long bonds down -1%, and "short bond" (my cash substitute) up about 0.5%.

November has started well for stocks, and not so well for gold and bonds. We'll see how it all turns out!

-Brad.

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          STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH/SB   GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January    7.97%   0.42%     0.13%    2.85%    2.71%
February   3.21%  -1.21%     0.16%   -0.47%    0.40%
March      1.91%   5.44%     0.14%   -1.59%    1.40%
April      4.02%  -1.89%     0.14%   -0.73%    0.37%
May       -6.36%   6.66%     0.18%    1.79%    0.56%
June       7.00%   1.02%     0.14%    8.15%    4.01%
July       1.40%   0.29%     0.15%    0.15%    0.49%
August    -1.42%  11.30%     1.06%    7.69%    4.55%
September  1.82%  -2.56%    -0.04%   -3.16%   -1.00%
October    2.13%  -1.07%     0.52%    2.55%    1.06%

YTD       23.13%  19.33%     2.64%   17.78%   15.43%

[ray.james]

Thanks Madsinger.

This bull run is spoiling everyone

[jimmieg]

Madsinger,

Will you be publishing more of your monthlies going forward, or have circumstances of time caught up?

They are very informative!

[madsinger]

Madsinger,

Will you be publishing more of your monthlies going forward, or have circumstances of time caught up?

They are very informative!

d'oh! Thank you, jimmieg, for pointing this out! I did not realize that I did not post the November report! (I collected all of the data, but didn't follow through with the post). I'll get that out next, and I do plan to keep posting these!

Thanks for noticing and letting me know!

-Brad.

[jimmieg]

More than welcome! One of my favorite monthly reality checks! Appreciate your work!