madsinger monthly report

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their November 2008 returns, 2008 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 (9 years 11 months, 7 years 11 months, 5 years 11 months, 3 years 11 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by Total Return since 2001. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX.

New for 2008, I've added the "Hot Hands" fund, and the Newsletter "Growth Index" portfolio. I've also rearranged the columns so the far right is the "longest" time period, and the far left is the shortest.

The madsinger portfolio, my real-money portfolio (slice-n-dice, approximately 66/5/3/26 stock/REIT/PM/bond) is included at the end.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                   CAGR   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                  Nov      YTD     since  since   since   since
                  2008     2008    2005   2003    2001    1999
Hot Hands        -8.75%  -47.67%  -3.66%  8.78%   6.83%   9.96%
Sheltered Sam    -9.31%  -41.05%  -4.71%  5.08%   1.16%   2.78%
VFINX            -7.18%  -37.69%  -5.67%  2.12%  -3.16%  -1.58%
                              
s&d              -6.20%  -33.91%  -2.74%  5.72%   2.32%   3.77%
3 fund           -4.28%  -33.26%  -2.23%  5.00%   0.53%   1.52%
Newsletter G-IND -7.36%  -42.10%  -4.32%  3.72%   0.08%   0.31%
Newsletter G     -6.94%  -41.00%  -3.89%  4.63%   0.07%   5.18%
LS G             -5.93%  -36.11%  -4.00%  3.60%  -0.70%   0.49%
                              
Wellington       -2.06%  -25.19%  -0.12%  5.02%   3.33%   4.13%
coffeehouse      -2.95%  -24.67%  -1.44%  4.98%   3.19%   4.10%
STAR             -3.39%  -28.13%  -2.14%  3.96%   1.66%   3.11%
LS MG            -3.74%  -28.44%  -2.10%  3.78%   0.82%   1.72%
Newsletter CG    -6.02%  -36.00%  -3.33%  4.20%   0.36%   3.48%
                              
Wellesley         0.32%  -13.37%   1.34%  3.74%   4.31%   4.55%
LS CG            -2.15%  -21.35%  -0.72%  3.48%   1.87%   2.58%
Newsletter Inc   -4.40%  -26.10%  -2.63%  2.59%   1.20%   1.55%
                              
madsinger        -6.87%  -32.24%  -2.44%
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

Well...thanks to the last five trading days of the month, November did not end up being worse than October. I guess that's the good news.

Bonds were strong in November (Total Bond +3.64%, Intermediate Index +5.69%). Large cap indexes were down -6% to -8% (both domestic and International). Small caps lagged (-10% or so). Anyone holding on to REITs got thwacked again -23.39%.

Wellesley was positive for the month, and is the only portfolio positive in the "almost 4 year" return (since 2005). The madsinger portfolio lagged other portfolios due to the lean towards "small", and some REIT and PM holdings. The "news" for the madsinger portfolio in November is that I did not have to rebalance (as I had done this on the last day of October). I could have done so after three weeks, but the fourth week of the month pulled it back to within the bands.

Some rather shocking YTD numbers: Precious Metal fund down -61.92%, Emerging Market down -56.43%, International Explorer down -51.11%, Total International down -48.32%.

I hope you all were able to focus on things to be "thankful" for this past week. Maybe next year, we'll all be more thankful for our portfolios!

-Brad.
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paulob
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Post by paulob »

YTD, my worst returns were in my 401-k: -31.0%

I managed to have positive returns YTD via inverse funds:
our IRA's 1.5%
son's IRA 11.8%

thanks Brad
Paul
cosimdm
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Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2007 2:44 pm

great service

Post by cosimdm »

Thanks for the information. it is very interesting , as usual.
Norris
Posts: 531
Joined: Tue May 08, 2007 10:04 am

Post by Norris »

Yes, thank you Brad. Unfortunately December isn't starting off too well.

Norris
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madsinger
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Post by madsinger »

Norris wrote:Yes, thank you Brad. Unfortunately December isn't starting off too well.

Norris
True...looking at today's returns, many of the portfolios have gone "underwater" since Dec 31, 2000. Seven years, eleven months, and one day...negative return.

Ouch.

-Brad.
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ken250
Posts: 1894
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 8:50 pm
Location: US-101

Post by ken250 »

I'm down 29% this year,

TIPS and Wellesley keeping me in the game :lol :lol :lol
cdelena
Posts: 288
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2007 3:22 pm

Post by cdelena »

Thanks for the update... I am looking just as miserable as most, down 33% YTD.
LFT_PFT
Posts: 292
Joined: Mon May 28, 2007 6:59 pm

Thanks

Post by LFT_PFT »

Thanks for providing the update. I enjoy reviewing it and the perspective it provides.
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Bounca
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Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 7:48 am

Post by Bounca »

Again, thank you for this thread. Every month I check in. I’m late to the party this month but wanted to stay consistent with documenting results

So for this month CAGRs:

IRA (approx 70/30 AA) - 4.41%

20% BND
5% BSV
5% TIP
5% WTMIX (Westcore Microcap)
5% DLS
10% VEA
5% VWO
5% VNQ
5% VBR
35% VTI

ROTH (approx 75/25 AA) - 4.88%

55% EXHAX (Manning and Napier Pro Blend Max)
45% EXBAX (Manning and Napier Pro Blend Moderate)
DP
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Joined: Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:19 pm

Post by DP »

Hi,
What is the hot hands strategy/portfolio? I understand it's momentum based, just wondering about the specifics of this strategy.

Don
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Bounca
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Post by Bounca »

DP wrote:Hi,
What is the hot hands strategy/portfolio? I understand it's momentum based, just wondering about the specifics of this strategy.

Don
Pure momentum play. The previous years vanguard fund with the best total return is carried forward as the choice for the next year.

A newsletter author who specializes in Vanguard wizadry employs it.
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