madsinger monthly report (May 2019)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their May 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 5 months, 10 years 5 months, 5 years 5 months, 3 years 5 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% VVIAX, 5% VSMAX, 15% VSIAX, 10% VGSLX, 3% IAU, 5% each VEUSX, VPADX, VEMAX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   May     YTD     since   since   since   since
                   2019    2019    2016    2014    2009    1999
VFINX             -6.36%  10.73%  11.23%   9.72%  13.53%   5.92%
Sheltered Sam     -5.68%   8.96%   8.92%   6.77%  11.41%   7.35%
Hot Hands         -6.07%  14.36%   2.70%   2.59%  10.01%   9.92%
                  
Newsletter G-IND  -5.76%   9.70%   9.99%   8.08%  13.10%   6.80%
Newsletter G      -6.62%   8.70%   9.63%   8.29%  13.02%   9.32%
LS G              -4.57%   8.45%   8.08%   6.14%   9.97%   5.35%
3 fund            -4.66%   8.57%   8.09%   5.96%   9.78%   5.84%
s&d               -4.33%   8.57%   7.19%   5.62%   9.75%   7.05%

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Newsletter CG     -4.94%   7.80%   9.38%   8.08%  12.02%   7.93%
Wellington        -2.82%   8.13%   8.70%   7.26%  10.28%   7.41%
STAR              -3.89%   8.09%   7.74%   6.17%   9.63%   6.59%
coffeehouse       -2.84%   8.18%   6.68%   5.71%   8.95%   6.82%
LS MG             -3.06%   7.54%   7.01%   5.58%   8.58%   5.30%
                  
Newsletter Inc    -3.02%   9.00%   8.56%   7.76%  10.48%   6.15%
Wellesley         -0.65%   7.21%   6.59%   5.86%   8.33%   6.65%
LS CG             -1.50%   6.59%   5.87%   4.93%   7.11%   4.98%
                  
madsinger         -2.44%   6.57%   6.67%   4.72%   8.98%   
madsinger PP       0.55%   5.53%   6.03%         

[madsinger]

In May, everything changed directions (at least for one month). US stocks down -6% to -8%. Internationals -5% to -6%. Total Bond market up about 2%, but long term US bonds up over 6.5%. Gold went up at the end of the month (and even more on the first day of June). REITs were flat for the month, and still up over +17% for the year.

Portfolio returns for the month were in line with the stock/bond allocation (when is it not?), with stock heavy portfolios down -4% to -6%, and portfolios with more bonds, not as much.

The permanent portfolio was up for the month --- the drop associated with its 25% allocation to stocks, was more than offset by the bonds, and gold and cash contributed positively. As a result, the non-correlated assets produced the fifth positive month in a row for the year.

The +9.5% YTD return in long bonds was nothing I "expected" to happen this year. (Of course, it may all disappear this month). This inability to predict which asset class will do well or poorly is why I like this approach.

I hope everyone was comfortable with the asset allocation this past month. If this caused you too much distress, I hope you'll take the opportunity to review your asset allocation plan.

-Brad.

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         STOCK  LONG BOND   CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January  7.97%    0.42%     0.13%   2.85%    2.71%
February 3.21%   -1.21%     0.16%  -0.47%    0.40%
March    1.91%    5.44%     0.14%  -1.59%    1.40%
April    4.02%   -1.89%     0.14%  -0.73%    0.37%
May     -6.36%    6.66%     0.18%   1.79%    0.56%
               
YTD     10.81%    9.47%     0.75%   1.79%    5.53%

[Peculiar_Investor]

Added to the wiki, Madsinger monthly reports