madsinger monthly report (January 2019)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their January 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 1 month, 10 years 1 month, 5 years 1 month, 3 years 1 month). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% VVIAX, 5% VSMAX, 15% VSIAX, 10% VGSLX, 3% IAU, 5% each VEUSX, VPADX, VEMAX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   Jan     YTD    since    since   since   since
                   2019    2019    2016    2014    2009    1999
VFINX              8.01%   8.01%  11.61%   9.86%  13.73%   5.89%
Sheltered Sam      8.39%   8.39%   9.74%   7.12%  11.75%   7.45%
Hot Hands          9.48%   9.48%   1.55%   1.89%   9.88%   9.86%
                  
Newsletter G       8.40%   8.40%  10.63%   8.80%  13.44%   9.46%
Newsletter G-IND   8.00%   8.00%  10.56%   8.30%  13.39%   6.84%
LS G               6.72%   6.72%   8.42%   6.22%  10.14%   5.36%
s&d                7.52%   7.52%   7.66%   5.80%   9.98%   7.12%
3 fund             6.80%   6.80%   8.42%   6.03%   9.94%   5.85%

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Newsletter CG      6.80%   6.80%  10.11%   8.43%  12.34%   8.02%
Wellington         4.42%   4.42%   8.45%   7.01%  10.26%   7.35%
STAR               5.90%   5.90%   7.89%   6.15%   9.74%   6.59%
coffeehouse        6.16%   6.16%   6.78%   5.70%   9.05%   6.83%
LS MG              5.28%   5.28%   7.05%   5.51%   8.65%   5.28%
                  
Newsletter Inc     5.80%   5.80%   8.47%   7.65%  10.52%   6.09%
Wellesley          3.23%   3.23%   6.02%   5.47%   8.21%   6.57%
LS CG              3.86%   3.86%   5.63%   4.72%   7.08%   4.93%
                  
madsinger          5.34%   5.34%   7.02%   4.80%   9.16%   
madsinger PP       2.71%   2.71%   5.76%         

[madsinger]

Quite a change from December to January!

US large stocks up 7% to 8%, small caps up 11% to 12%. International stocks up 7% to 8%. Bonds up 1%. A year's worth of gains in a month! (...but, in reality, only get back to about even for the past two months).

All four assets in the permanent portfolio were positive for the month.

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          STOCK  LONG BOND   CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January   7.97%    0.42%     0.13%   2.85%    2.71%

[madsinger]

A few updates to the methodology for the charts. Up until this year, I have always used "investor class" shares. Since Vanguard has basically shifted their index funds to Admiral shares, I will now be using Admiral shares to track the portfolios.

The 3% holding in "Precious Metals and Mining" fund in the Sheltered Sam portfolio has been replaced with IAU (gold etf). This is not what Bernstein recommended in his book, but I feel it has more of the "spirit" of the intent than what the VGPMX fund became last year.

-Brad.

[Peculiar_Investor]

Added to the wiki.