REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]

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michaelsieg
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by michaelsieg » Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:58 pm

2630.1

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by bo105954027 » Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:11 pm

2737.24
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raymclean
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by raymclean » Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:21 pm

2921
Thanks for running this contest again this year, Taylor and Ralph.
Ray

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by thomas716 » Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:33 pm

2382.51

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tadamsmar
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by tadamsmar » Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:38 pm

3477.77

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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:54 am

The tracking site has been updated. Please let me know if I got your entry incorrect... I wrote a script that collects a lot of the data, but some of it is a manual process and I don't want to make a mistake with your guess. :-)

Tracking site
https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest

Miriam2
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Miriam2 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:21 am

rarvesen wrote: The tracking site has been updated. Please let me know if I got your entry incorrect... I wrote a script that collects a lot of the data, but some of it is a manual process and I don't want to make a mistake with your guess. :-)

Tracking site
https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest
Ralph, the tracking site used to give us the option of seeing the contest by placement OR by name in alphabetical order. Does this site no longer allow us to view by name?

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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:30 am

Miriam2 wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:21 am
Ralph, the tracking site used to give us the option of seeing the contest by placement OR by name in alphabetical order. Does this site no longer allow us to view by name?
Sorry, that is correct, it only displays in placement order. I was not sure if anyone was using the other sort features and they were removed when the site had a slight interface change.

If helpful, you should be able to use your browser find / search on page feature to find your entry on the tracking site. It looks like you have the guess of 2240.00, let me know if that is incorrect.

ABQ4804
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by ABQ4804 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:35 am

Rarvesen, thank you for supporting all of us in putting together this fun contest! Entry deadline has passed, let the fun of our “calculations” begin.

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LadyGeek
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:59 am

I see several duplicate entries, so there's more work to be done.

According to the rules, the earliest entry is the only one that counts. Can the duplicates be removed? If anyone is running stats on the distribution, the duplicate entries will skew the results.

I suggest posting the duplicate names so the member will know the entry has been disqualified.

Also, the closest entry is +/- (above and below) the value. A tie is possible.
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ResearchMed
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by ResearchMed » Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:11 am

LadyGeek wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:59 am
I see several duplicate entries, so there's more work to be done.

According to the rules, the earliest entry is the only one that counts. Can the duplicates be removed? If anyone is running stats on the distribution, the duplicate entries will skew the results.

I suggest posting the duplicate names so the member will know the entry has been disqualified.

Also, the closest entry is +/- (above and below) the value. A tie is possible.
How can a tie be possible, if only the earliest entry is left, when duplicates are removed?
Even if timing is "close", one will have been posted before the other, etc.

(I've already reported a problem with our numbers: Mr.ResearchMed and ResearchMed were both given the same entry.)

RM
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Scooter57
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Scooter57 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:40 am

Are those last 4 entries typos? The order of magnitude is way off. They might be skewing the average. It would be nice to see the median and standard deviation, too.

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hornet96
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by hornet96 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:48 am

ResearchMed wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:11 am

How can a tie be possible, if only the earliest entry is left, when duplicates are removed?
Even if timing is "close", one will have been posted before the other, etc.
If the ending S&P value is 2500, and:

*Person A guessed 2501 for the year-end value, and
*Person B guessed 2499 for the year-end value

Then they would tie for the winning spot since they are both 1 point away from the ending value (one is over, one is under). I don't think they're using the Price-is-Right rules for this contest. :wink:

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Taylor Larimore
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Taylor Larimore » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:47 am

Ralph:

We appreciate your posting all the guesses so quickly. I like the new shaded blue to emphasize our top-five leaders.

Interesting facts about the 2018 Contest:

* We had 479 Bogleheads enter the contest in January 2018. Only 78 (16.3%) could even guess the direction of the S&P 500 Index (December ending lower than January).

* The price of the S&P Index on December 31, 2018 was 2506.85. The average Boglehead guess in January 2832.49 was better than the average Wall Street expert guess 2840.82.

Lesson Learned: No one (except by luck) can forecast the stock market.

Ralph, your computer program has helped make the Boglehead Contest the best of all similar contests on the web!

Thank you and best wishes.

Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:51 am

Can the duplicates be removed?
I'm not the one that decides, but in my opinion, I don't think duplicate entries should be removed and all entries should be tracked. The contest makes the point that no one can predict the market and it's for fun. If two people are tied for first place since they entered the same guess, then I think they both won the contest. The person that entered their guess first would get the prize assuming there is only one prize available.
+/- (above and below)
The same for the +/-, more then one person could win the contest even with different guesses. I think it's the same... they both won the contest and the person that entered their guess first would get the prize.

I'm not saying this is how the contest works, just my opinion / how I view it.
Ralph

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rarvesen
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by rarvesen » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:53 am

(I've already reported a problem with our numbers: Mr.ResearchMed and ResearchMed were both given the same entry.)
Thanks for letting me know, this has been updated, let me know if you still see any problems.
Ralph

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LadyGeek
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:20 am

^^^ From an administrative perspective, I confirm that Mr.ResearchMed and ResearchMed are indeed husband and wife.

I also want to be clear that I have no influence on the contest manager decisions. I'm just a contest entrant expressing an opinion.
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BolderBoy
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by BolderBoy » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:15 pm

tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:42 pm
BolderBoy wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:08 pm
Hmmmm. One downside I notice is that one has to read through 13 (presently) pages of guesses to see if someone else has used the one you plan to use. Since the rules (from last year) are that the earliest duplicate submission wins over a later one and you can't change your guess once submitted, it makes the duplicate guess 1) wasted and 2) useless.

Isn't there a better way to run this popular game?
I just thought of a better way. Add LadyGeek's instructions on how to search for duplicates to the Original Post (OP) of this topic and make it conspicuous so it would be hard to miss:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=268318&p=4303407&h ... h#p4303407
An excellent suggestion! LadyGeek...?
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VictoriaF
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:51 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:59 am
I see several duplicate entries, so there's more work to be done.

According to the rules, the earliest entry is the only one that counts. Can the duplicates be removed? If anyone is running stats on the distribution, the duplicate entries will skew the results.

I suggest posting the duplicate names so the member will know the entry has been disqualified.

Also, the closest entry is +/- (above and below) the value. A tie is possible.
Barclays (Maneesh Deshpande), BTIG (Julian Emanuel), and Goldman Sachs (David Kostin) are tied at 3000. Should we vote two of them out? Or let all of them lose to some lucky Boglehead?

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

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hornet96
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by hornet96 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:55 pm

tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:42 pm

I just thought of a better way. Add LadyGeek's instructions on how to search for duplicates to the Original Post (OP) of this topic and make it conspicuous so it would be hard to miss:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=268318&p=4303407&h ... h#p4303407
Ok, well I just discovered that the "search this topic" function is not exactly that robust, as when I search for the first four digits of my entry, I get this:

Image

However, apparently Triple Digit Golfer entered the same guess as me, but his result didn't show up in my search (which I did before I submitted my entry), as his included the comma.

I don't really care that much as I won't win anyway, but unfortunately the "search this topic" function isn't necessarily the panacea to ensure no duplicate entries are submitted.

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VictoriaF
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by VictoriaF » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:58 pm

hornet96 wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:55 pm
However, apparently Triple Digit Golfer entered the same guess as me, but his result didn't show up in my search (which I did before I submitted my entry), as his included the comma.
LadyGeek's instructions are to conduct two searches, with and without a comma.

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

BigJohn
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by BigJohn » Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:03 pm

I just search on the first four numbers and then scrolled down the list of a few posts to ensure no duplicate.

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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Wings2525 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:42 am

2669.69

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LadyGeek
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST [Entry deadline has passed]

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:36 pm

Wings2525, Welcome!

FYI - The contest entry deadline has passed.
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Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by bkweathe » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:03 am

Scooter57 wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:40 am
Are those last 4 entries typos? The order of magnitude is way off. They might be skewing the average. It would be nice to see the median and standard deviation, too.
I suspect that those four are guessing the DJIA, not the S&P 500.

Brad

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