December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

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bobcat2
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December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by bobcat2 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:14 pm

The next meeting of DC Bogleheads will be Sunday, December 9, from 2:30-4:30 in the auditorium of the Arlington Central library in Ballston. Our special guest speaker will be Stephen Goss, the Chief Actuary of Social Security.

The Office of Chief Actuary plans and directs a program of actuarial estimates and analyses relating to SSA-administered retirement, survivors and disability insurance programs and to proposed changes in those programs. It evaluates operations of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and the Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund, conducts studies of program financing, performs actuarial and demographic research on social insurance and related program issues, and projects future workloads. The Office provides technical and consultative services to the Commissioner, to the Board of Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds, and its staff appears before Congressional Committees to provide expert testimony on the actuarial aspects of Social Security issues.

The Office consists of a professional staff of over 40 actuaries, economists, demographers, statisticians and other professionals to assess the financial viability of the Social Security program over the next 75 years. All proposals for changes in the Social Security system are evaluated by the Office and the viability of the program over the next 75 years is evaluated every year by the Office with the findings subject to oversight by a panel of outside experts in the fields of demographics and economics.

Mr Goss has held the position of Chief Actuary since 2001. In short, Steve knows more about the finances of the Social Security program than anybody else in the world. Steve is also an excellent public speaker who is both quick witted and humorous. We are very fortunate that Steve has accepted an invitation to speak to our group.

It seems to me that hardly a meeting of DC Bogleheads goes by without someone bringing up when to start Social Security and then others chiming in about worries of future cuts to the program. So here's your chance to ask questions about the Social Security program to someone who is truly an expert.

Lastly, the Office of the Chief Actuary of Social Security is the arbiter of the Social Security program. Steve can tell you the plusses and minuses of different proposals to change Social Security, but he cannot make recommendations. He is the umpire; not the manager.

Hope to see you on December 9.

Best,
Bob K
Last edited by bobcat2 on Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by Mel Lindauer » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:26 pm

bobcat2 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:14 pm
The next meeting of DC Bogleheads will be Sunday, December 9, from 2:30-4:30 in the auditorium of the Arlington Central library in Ballston. Our special guest speaker will be Stephen Goss, the Chief Actuary of Social Security.

The Office of Chief Actuary plans and directs a program of actuarial estimates and analyses relating to SSA-administered retirement, survivors and disability insurance programs and to proposed changes in those programs. It evaluates operations of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and the Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund, conducts studies of program financing, performs actuarial and demographic research on social insurance and related program issues, and projects future workloads. The Office provides technical and consultative services to the Commissioner, to the Board of Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds, and its staff appears before Congressional Committees to provide expert testimony on the actuarial aspects of Social Security issues.

The Office consists of a professional staff of over 40 actuaries, economists, demographers, statisticians and other professionals to assess the financial viability of the Social Security program over the next 75 years. All proposals for changes in the Social Security system are evaluated by the Office and the viability of the program over the next 75 years is evaluated every year by the Office with the findings subject to oversight by a panel of outside experts in the fields of demographics and economics.

Mr Goss has held the position of Chief Actuary since 2001. In short, Steve knows more about the finances of the Social Security program than anybody else in the world. Steve is also an excellent public speaker who is both quick witted and humorous. We are very fortunate that Steve has accepted an invitation to speak to our group.

It seems to me that hardly a meeting of DC Bogleheads goes by without someone bringing up when to start Social Security and then others chiming in about worries of future cuts to the program. So here's your chance to ask questions about the Social Security program to someone who is truly an expert.

Lastly, the Office of the Chief Actuary of Social Security is the arbiter of the Social Security program. Steve can tell you the plusses and minuses of different proposals to change Social Security, but he cannot make recommendations. He is the umpire; not the manager.

Hope to see you on December 9.

Best,
Bob K
What a great coup in getting him. You deserve a big "Ataboy", Bob.
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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:37 pm

What a coup! Wish I was in dc area to attend.
Sounds like it will be a fantastic presentation. Would you kindly be able to share your findings with the forum?
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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by Dottie57 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:54 pm

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:37 pm
What a coup! Wish I was in dc area to attend.
Sounds like it will be a fantastic presentation. Would you kindly be able to share your findings with the forum?
Indeed a coup! I too wish I could attend. I hope someone will take notes and share here.

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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by HIinvestor » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:55 pm

Wow—can’t wait to read summaries from lucky attendees!

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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by Rainmaker41 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:24 am

My parents will be in town that weekend and are interested, so I may attend with them and my wife (4 people). I was last at a DC area Bogleheads meeting in early 2017 probably.
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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by pennywise » Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:55 am

Are guest Bogleheads allowed to attend? I attend the South Florida chapter but would love to hear this speaker, and since my daughter lives in the area I can combine bogleheads business with family pleasure, or vice versa :D

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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by Rick Ferri » Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:38 am

Excellent! Wish I were there.

Can you put it out on the web live or record for a video?

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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by Big Dog » Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:10 am

any streaming options available? I'd love to listen in.

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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by bobcat2 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:26 pm

pennywise wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:55 am
Are guest Bogleheads allowed to attend? I attend the South Florida chapter but would love to hear this speaker, and since my daughter lives in the area I can combine bogleheads business with family pleasure, or vice versa :D
Hi pennywise,

All meetings in the Arlington library are open to the general public. We cannot restrict who comes to the meetings and that includes out-of-town Bogleheads. :wink: The auditorium has a maximum capacity of 180, so seating should not be a problem.

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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by The Wizard » Mon Nov 26, 2018 3:42 pm

I'd be there except that I've got an existing commitment for that time frame...
Attempted new signature...

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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by staythecourse » Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:10 pm

Mel Lindauer wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:26 pm
bobcat2 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:14 pm
The next meeting of DC Bogleheads will be Sunday, December 9, from 2:30-4:30 in the auditorium of the Arlington Central library in Ballston. Our special guest speaker will be Stephen Goss, the Chief Actuary of Social Security.

The Office of Chief Actuary plans and directs a program of actuarial estimates and analyses relating to SSA-administered retirement, survivors and disability insurance programs and to proposed changes in those programs. It evaluates operations of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and the Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund, conducts studies of program financing, performs actuarial and demographic research on social insurance and related program issues, and projects future workloads. The Office provides technical and consultative services to the Commissioner, to the Board of Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds, and its staff appears before Congressional Committees to provide expert testimony on the actuarial aspects of Social Security issues.

The Office consists of a professional staff of over 40 actuaries, economists, demographers, statisticians and other professionals to assess the financial viability of the Social Security program over the next 75 years. All proposals for changes in the Social Security system are evaluated by the Office and the viability of the program over the next 75 years is evaluated every year by the Office with the findings subject to oversight by a panel of outside experts in the fields of demographics and economics.

Mr Goss has held the position of Chief Actuary since 2001. In short, Steve knows more about the finances of the Social Security program than anybody else in the world. Steve is also an excellent public speaker who is both quick witted and humorous. We are very fortunate that Steve has accepted an invitation to speak to our group.

It seems to me that hardly a meeting of DC Bogleheads goes by without someone bringing up when to start Social Security and then others chiming in about worries of future cuts to the program. So here's your chance to ask questions about the Social Security program to someone who is truly an expert.

Lastly, the Office of the Chief Actuary of Social Security is the arbiter of the Social Security program. Steve can tell you the plusses and minuses of different proposals to change Social Security, but he cannot make recommendations. He is the umpire; not the manager.

Hope to see you on December 9.

Best,
Bob K
What a great coup in getting him. You deserve a big "Ataboy", Bob.
I'll second that. I'm only early 40's, but would just LOVE to hear that presentation. Any chance it can be uploaded somehow so others on here can look over the presentation?

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by UpperNwGuy » Mon Nov 26, 2018 5:37 pm

What a wonderful opportunity! I hope to be join you.

As a retired Federal executive myself, I'm guessing that he won't want to be recorded, so I hope folk don't push for that to happen. If you're a Fed, you'll understand why. If you're not, you'll have to trust.

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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by TBillT » Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:25 pm

...nice, might try to attend...

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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by bobcat2 » Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:16 pm

staythecourse wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:10 pm
I'm only early 40's, but would just LOVE to hear that presentation. Any chance it can be uploaded somehow so others on here can look over the presentation?
I've seen a preliminary version of the slides for the presentation and they appear very informative. It will up to Steve as to whether the slides can be uploaded to Bogleheads after the meeting. The slides will not be uploaded before the meeting.

BobK
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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by staythecourse » Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:28 am

bobcat2 wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:16 pm
staythecourse wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:10 pm
I'm only early 40's, but would just LOVE to hear that presentation. Any chance it can be uploaded somehow so others on here can look over the presentation?
I've seen a preliminary version of the slides for the presentation and they appear very informative. It will up to Steve as to whether the slides can be uploaded to Bogleheads after the meeting. The slides will not be uploaded before the meeting.

BobK
If you don't mind asking him would be much appreciated by MANY on this forum. If not, great get either way. Only time I wished in the Washington area!

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by bobcat2 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:50 am

The next meeting of DC Bogleheads will be Sunday, December 9, from 2:30-4:30 in the auditorium of the Arlington Central library in Ballston. Our special guest speaker will be Stephen C. Goss, the Chief Actuary of Social Security. The topic of his presentation is, The Financial Status of Social Security and Proposed Changes to the System.

The library is at 1015 North Quincy Street between the Virginia Square and Ballston stations on the Metro Orange Line. From Virginia Square, walk four blocks west (left, away from Washington) on Fairfax Drive, turn right on North Quincy, and go one block to the library. From Ballston, walk three blocks east (right, towards Washington) on Fairfax Drive, turn left on North Quincy, and go one block to the library. The library is on the east side of North Quincy Street. The auditorium is on the ground floor at the north side of the building. From the main lobby of the library there is a hallway on the east side of the building (the back side) that ends at the auditorium. The library has a free parking lot for patrons behind the building and free parking in a garage below the building. On Sundays the parking lot is often full, but the garage typically has many open spaces.

BobK
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Re: Special DC Bogleheads Meeting with Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by bobcat2 » Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:20 pm

Because this meeting is of general interest, I've teamed with Alexandra Fox of the Arlington Public Library to open the meeting to the general public. There should still be plenty of room for all, since the auditorium can seat 180 people. So feel free to invite friends, neighbors, and relatives who are not Bogleheads, but who are interested in the financial status of Social Security both now and in the future.

Link to library announcement of meeting - https://arlingtonva.libcal.com/event/4854376

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Re: December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by bobcat2 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:40 am

staythecourse wrote:
Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:28 am
bobcat2 wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:16 pm
I've seen a preliminary version of the slides for the presentation and they appear very informative. It will up to Stephen as to whether the slides can be uploaded to Bogleheads after the meeting. The slides will not be uploaded before the meeting.
If you don't mind asking him would be much appreciated by MANY on this forum. If not, great get either way. Only time I wished I was in the Washington area!
In an exchange of emails we had last week, Stephen mentioned that the slides from the meeting will be available on the web after the meeting.

BobK
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Re: December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by SGM » Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:50 am

This looks like another great meeting you arranged Bob. Unfortunately, we have tickets for a concert and another holiday party to attend. I am looking forward to seeing the slides.

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Re: December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by staythecourse » Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:09 am

bobcat2 wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:40 am
staythecourse wrote:
Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:28 am
bobcat2 wrote:
Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:16 pm
I've seen a preliminary version of the slides for the presentation and they appear very informative. It will up to Stephen as to whether the slides can be uploaded to Bogleheads after the meeting. The slides will not be uploaded before the meeting.
If you don't mind asking him would be much appreciated by MANY on this forum. If not, great get either way. Only time I wished I was in the Washington area!
In an exchange of emails we had last week, Stephen mentioned that the slides from the meeting will be available on the web after the meeting.

BobK
Much appreciated. Does this mean it will be available through bogleheads.org or his website or another website. Again great get for the talk!

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

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Re: December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by bobcat2 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:22 pm

Some of us will be going out to dinner in the Ballston area after the presentation and all are welcome to join us.

BobK
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Re: December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by dodecahedron » Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:29 am

bobcat2 wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:22 pm
Some of us will be going out to dinner in the Ballston area after the presentation and all are welcome to join us.

BobK
Dodecahedron will be in town and in attendance. :)

I have been preparing by doing some background reading for thought-provoking scholarly historical perspective. (Full disclosure:the author of the book is an old friend and former colleague. She was on Alan Greenspan’s staff when he chaired the 1983 bipartisan committee on SS viability.)

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Re: December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by TBillT » Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:48 am

Great seminar...great attendance for the Holiday season.
I attended for the first time.

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Re: December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by VictoriaF » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:06 pm

Thank you, Bob, for organizing an excellent seminar.

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Re: December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by bobcat2 » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:18 pm

The presentation made by Steve Goss yesterday to DC Bogleheads are the same slides used in the Goss & Glenn presentation to the Society of Actuaries on October 15 and titled, "Social Security Financial Status and Proposed Changes". A link to those slides, and many other presentations on the Social Security program, are available from the following web page at Social Security.
Link - https://www.ssa.gov/oact/presentations/index.html

Many thanks to Steve Goss for an excellent presentation and to Alexandra Fox of the Arlington library for her wonderful administrative help above and beyond the call of duty. :beer

Also thanks to Leni for starting the informal DC Bogleheads investing lending library. :beer

BobK
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Re: December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by Dottie57 » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:43 pm

Thank you Bobcat2!

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Re: December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by bobcat2 » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:39 pm

One thing that Steve Goss pointed out in his presentation that I had not previously realized was the following. If the Social Security COLA benefit adjustment is shifted to a chained CPI index with a likely slightly lower average annual inflation adjustment, the cost savings of this change falls nearly entirely on the very old elderly. That's because when you start Social Security the benefits initially are determined by your adjusted average wage (not the CPI) and the CPI downward cumulative adjustment on benefits will be relatively small until you have received benefits for 20 years or more.

BobK
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Re: December 9 DC Bogleheads Meeting with Stephen Goss, Chief Actuary of Soc Security

Post by UpperNwGuy » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:47 pm

I attended. It was my very first DC Bogleheads meeting. The presentation was very informative and cleared up many common misunderstandings. Thanks for organizing the meeting.

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