madsinger monthly report (October 2018)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their October 2018 returns, 2018 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2008, 2013 and 2015 (19 years 10 months, 10 years 10 months, 5 years 10 months, 3 years 10 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   Oct     YTD     since   since   since   since
                   2018    2018    2015    2013    2008    1999
VFINX             -6.85%   2.88%   9.52%  13.81%   7.99%   5.96%
Sheltered Sam     -6.75%  -3.33%   6.53%   9.95%   5.96%   7.46%
Hot Hands        -10.66%  -8.46%   0.35%   7.38%   2.39%   9.75%
                  
Newsletter G      -7.18%   0.80%   8.58%  13.01%   7.44%   9.54%
Newsletter G-IND  -8.02%  -0.20%   7.94%  12.00%   7.06%   6.86%
s&d               -6.26%  -4.34%   5.03%   7.71%   5.43%   7.07%
3 fund            -6.41%  -2.67%   5.85%   8.31%   5.38%   5.82%
LS G              -6.32%  -2.72%   5.81%   8.54%   5.03%   5.32%

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Newsletter CG     -6.31%   0.90%   7.88%  11.73%   7.13%   8.03%
Wellington        -3.91%  -0.48%   6.39%   9.15%   6.86%   7.37%
STAR              -5.70%  -1.91%   5.66%   7.94%   5.95%   6.56%
coffeehouse       -4.65%  -2.33%   4.37%   6.92%   5.88%   6.76%
LS MG             -4.90%  -2.31%   4.80%   6.88%   4.76%   5.21%
                  
Newsletter Inc    -6.47%  -0.20%   6.39%   9.20%   6.68%   6.00%
Wellesley         -2.27%  -2.09%   4.43%   5.85%   6.34%   6.51%
LS CG             -3.41%  -1.92%   3.72%   5.17%   4.20%   4.84%
                  
madsinger         -4.64%  -3.45%   4.06%   6.55%   4.87%   
madsinger PP      -1.89%  -2.71%   2.76%         

[madsinger]

Lots of negative signs on the chart this month.

Not a lot of places to hide this month.... S&P 500 down almost -7%, small caps down around -10%, international down -8%, REITs down -3%, total bond fund down almost -1%, long bonds closer to -3%. Gold had its first positive month since last March, up about 2%. Through October 29th, cash was the winning asset class in the permanent portfolio for the year, but the last two days of the month brought stocks back on top (of a rather unimpressive field). Have we finished up with this volatility? Or, is this just the beginning? Who knows? This is a good time to check your comfort level with your portfolio.

-Brad.

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           STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January    5.69%   -3.23%    0.10%   3.28%   1.48%
February  -3.72%   -2.92%    0.10%  -2.01%  -2.17%
March     -2.52%    2.79%    0.11%   0.55%   0.16%
April      0.37%   -2.00%    0.10%  -0.86%  -0.61%
May        2.41%    1.86%    0.12%  -1.27%   0.79%
June       0.58%    0.63%    0.08%  -3.53%  -0.52%
July       3.66%   -1.30%    0.10%  -2.30%   0.10%
August     3.26%    1.25%    0.16%  -2.04%   0.66%
September  0.52%   -2.74%    0.11%  -0.61%  -0.68%
October   -6.88%   -2.78%    0.12%   2.10%  -1.89%
               
YTD        3.14%   -8.31%    1.10%  -6.50%  -2.71%

[alpenglow]

Thanks Brad, as always, for your informative updates.

[Peculiar_Investor]

Wiki has been updated to reflect this new report -- Madsinger monthly reports

[MariaT]

As always, Brad, thank you for your continuous monthly report. Much appreciated.