U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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B. Wellington
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by B. Wellington » Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:17 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:58 am
B. Wellington wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:55 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:48 am
Stef wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:48 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:45 am


Wow! I'd never thought about stocks increasing ten-fold every 33 years. That level of growth seems phenomenal.

It looks like another great day is in store! So much for all the 'experts' predicting that stocks had run out of gas. :mrgreen:
Without dividends. Total return should be around factor 22.
That's true. Wow, just wow.
Will, I cant't tell you how many articles, blogs, etc. by those "experts" calling for the end of the bull run. "Bubbles" everywhere and so on. Someday they maybe right. But that was 1000's of points ago (DOW).

I confess, my crystal ball was just as cloudy. Today, I'm just riding the Bull and trying hard not to do anything silly. (Retirement) number is very, very, close.
When you reach your number, will you shift to a more conservative AA?
Don't plan to. My IPS calls for a target AA of 60/40. I have been a conservative investor for sometime now. 60/40 (Although it is now considered "dead" by the "experts") has been my overall target. :beer

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:17 am

B. Wellington wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:17 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:58 am
B. Wellington wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:55 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:48 am
Stef wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:48 am

Without dividends. Total return should be around factor 22.
That's true. Wow, just wow.
Will, I cant't tell you how many articles, blogs, etc. by those "experts" calling for the end of the bull run. "Bubbles" everywhere and so on. Someday they maybe right. But that was 1000's of points ago (DOW).

I confess, my crystal ball was just as cloudy. Today, I'm just riding the Bull and trying hard not to do anything silly. (Retirement) number is very, very, close.
When you reach your number, will you shift to a more conservative AA?
Don't plan to. My IPS calls for a target AA of 60/40. I have been a conservative investor for sometime now. 60/40 (Although it is now considered "dead" by the "experts") has been my overall target. :beer
60/40 isn't a bad AA for an investor's entire life.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:20 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:17 am
B. Wellington wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:17 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:58 am
B. Wellington wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:55 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:48 am


That's true. Wow, just wow.
Will, I cant't tell you how many articles, blogs, etc. by those "experts" calling for the end of the bull run. "Bubbles" everywhere and so on. Someday they maybe right. But that was 1000's of points ago (DOW).

I confess, my crystal ball was just as cloudy. Today, I'm just riding the Bull and trying hard not to do anything silly. (Retirement) number is very, very, close.
When you reach your number, will you shift to a more conservative AA?
Don't plan to. My IPS calls for a target AA of 60/40. I have been a conservative investor for sometime now. 60/40 (Although it is now considered "dead" by the "experts") has been my overall target. :beer
60/40 isn't a bad AA for an investor's entire life.
Hey thats what my AA is now! :P

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:30 am

Bluce wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:01 am
We're in a New Era! This time it's different! 8-) :moneybag

Stocks will only go up from now on. Trust me on this. :shock: 8-)

I'm loading up on tulip light bulb futures. :sharebeer
For those of us that can measure the performance over decade long periods, I expect... well... hope, that's true enough despite your sarcasm
Nothing "new" or different about it.
:beer
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:35 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:45 am
ReformedSpender wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:39 am
The S&P 500 just opened above 3,300. The index first closed above 330 on August 11, 1987. It first closed above 33 on Nov 8, 1954.

So roughly 10-fold every 33 years and change. Stay the course.
:beer
Wow! I'd never thought about stocks increasing ten-fold every 33 years. That level of growth seems phenomenal.

It looks like another great day is in store! So much for all the 'experts' predicting that stocks had run out of gas. :mrgreen:
Yeah, 1 doubles to 2, 2 doubles to 4 then 4 doubles to 8 and a little extra to get to 10. So using the rule of 72 I am going to guess that is around 7.2%-7.5%/annually. But this is a total off the top of my head guess.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:36 am

WOW!!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:51 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:35 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:45 am
ReformedSpender wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:39 am
The S&P 500 just opened above 3,300. The index first closed above 330 on August 11, 1987. It first closed above 33 on Nov 8, 1954.

So roughly 10-fold every 33 years and change. Stay the course.
:beer
Wow! I'd never thought about stocks increasing ten-fold every 33 years. That level of growth seems phenomenal.

It looks like another great day is in store! So much for all the 'experts' predicting that stocks had run out of gas. :mrgreen:
Yeah, 1 doubles to 2, 2 doubles to 4 then 4 doubles to 8 and a little extra to get to 10. So using the rule of 72 I am going to guess that is around 7.2%-7.5%/annually. But this is a total off the top of my head guess.
That's what I just showed
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=257573&start=2800#p4957401
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:24 am

For you optimists . . .

From the Philadelphia Fed:

Image

Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas » Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:34 am

Bluce wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:01 am
We're in a New Era! This time it's different! 8-) :moneybag

Stocks will only go up from now on. Trust me on this. :shock: 8-)

I'm loading up on tulip light bulb futures. :sharebeer
Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
Last edited by Nicolas on Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stef » Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:37 am

Well well well, SCV soaring!

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:43 am

Bluce wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:24 am
For you optimists . . .

From the Philadelphia Fed:

Image
I just looked at the Purchasing Managers Index, and it doesn't look so rosy.

Image
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... confidence

It's been below 50 (i.e. in pessimistic territory) since August of 2019 and has been trending downward. :?

The Conference Board LEI is still in mildly optimistic territory though at 111.6.
Last edited by willthrill81 on Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:45 am

not excited about this run up as the market is getting way too expensive... not good for those of us in the accumulation phase.

CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CoastalWinds » Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:50 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:45 am
not excited about this run up as the market is getting way too expensive... not good for those of us in the accumulation phase.
Exactly!

B. Wellington
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by B. Wellington » Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:54 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:45 am
not excited about this run up as the market is getting way too expensive... not good for those of us in the accumulation phase.
Agree...That's why I wanted to mention that I was close to the "retirement" phase.

New money is mostly 401(k) contributions. YMMV.

grettman
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by grettman » Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:55 am

People have been disenchanted with the market run up since 2013. They said then and ever since that it’s too expensive. I’m not smart enough to know if it is or isn’t. But I know no one really knows one way or the other. I also know I can’t control it. So I try not to be scared, excited, or unexcited.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:06 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:45 am
not excited about this run up as the market is getting way too expensive... not good for those of us in the accumulation phase.
This message brought to you by friends of CNBC.
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rascott
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rascott » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:22 pm

Stef wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:37 am
Well well well, SCV soaring!
Financials ave been surging with the early mega banks reporting big beats. Will have to see if that carries over to the small financials that make up big chunks of SCV

thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:05 pm

Oh now Market Watch and Motley fool have to post articles about being overbought and a recession brewing! I get sick of the negativity of these sites!

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:56 pm

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:05 pm
Oh now Market Watch and Motley fool have to post articles about being overbought and a recession brewing! I get sick of the negativity of these sites!
Well of course there's a recession "brewing"!! :beer

We just don't know when. :(

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:02 pm

Bluce wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:56 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:05 pm
Oh now Market Watch and Motley fool have to post articles about being overbought and a recession brewing! I get sick of the negativity of these sites!
Well of course there's a recession "brewing"!! :beer

We just don't know when. :(
:beer Exactly. And I'm as prepared for it as I'm going to be (as in pretty unprepared, but whatever I'm not going to die or go bankrupt).

Until then, my trailing stop losses keep going up up up!!! :sharebeer

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InvestorNewb
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by InvestorNewb » Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:55 pm

I feel like the money is coming too easy. Being 100% stocks is paying off... for how long, nobody knows.
My Portfolio: VTI [US], VXUS [Int'l], VNQ [REIT], VCN [Canada] (largest to smallest)

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:21 pm

Holy monkey!

Dare we whisper DOW 30,000?

Broken Man 1999
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CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CoastalWinds » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:24 pm

This isn’t good.

TomCat96
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TomCat96 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:24 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:45 am
not excited about this run up as the market is getting way too expensive... not good for those of us in the accumulation phase.
+1

Ive got more than 25 years of accumulation to go and i'd rather do it on the cheap.

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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AnalogKid22 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:34 pm

TomCat96 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:24 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:45 am
not excited about this run up as the market is getting way too expensive... not good for those of us in the accumulation phase.
+1

Ive got more than 25 years of accumulation to go and i'd rather do it on the cheap.
If this bull continues for another 5+ years or more, 2020 stock prices will have been cheap. The DOW reached 25,000 for the very first time a little over 2 years ago and it seemed everyone was saying the market was overpriced. The DOW is now well passed 29,000 and climbing.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:38 pm

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:34 pm
TomCat96 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:24 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:45 am
not excited about this run up as the market is getting way too expensive... not good for those of us in the accumulation phase.
+1

Ive got more than 25 years of accumulation to go and i'd rather do it on the cheap.
If this bull continues for another 5+ years or more, 2020 stock prices will have been cheap. The DOW reached 25,000 for the very first time a little over 2 years ago and it seemed everyone was saying the market was overpriced. The DOW is now well passed 29,000 and climbing.
Greenspan declared the stock market to be irrationally exuberant back in 1996, when stocks were at record highs, but stocks never fell to those levels.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:40 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:17 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:55 am
Stinky wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:52 am
S&P and Nasdaq are up nicely this morning. Not too far from record highs.

Hopefully, today’s geopolitical events won’t spook Mr. Market too much.
With any luck the market will surge forward and hit my next melt up sell order. Go Team!
Update: Melt Up Sell Order triggered :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag . That is the third of ten :beer . It is a good day :sharebeer .
Nice rally into the close. Didn't expect that.

Update: Another Melt Up Sell Order triggered :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag . That is the fourth of ten :beer . It is a better day :sharebeer .
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AerialWombat
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AerialWombat » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:43 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:43 am
It's been below 50 (i.e. in pessimistic territory) since August of 2019 and has been trending downward. :?

The Conference Board LEI is still in mildly optimistic territory though at 111.6.
For the two metrics you use for your trend following, do you post about if here when it actually happens? I just think it would be interesting to track how the market does from your your trigger point onward.
“Life doesn’t come with a warranty.” -Michael LeBoeuf

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:49 pm

AerialWombat wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:43 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:43 am
It's been below 50 (i.e. in pessimistic territory) since August of 2019 and has been trending downward. :?

The Conference Board LEI is still in mildly optimistic territory though at 111.6.
For the two metrics you use for your trend following, do you post about if here when it actually happens? I just think it would be interesting to track how the market does from your your trigger point onward.
I do post that in the thread devoted to that topic. Right now, I'm 100% U.S. stock.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by RetireBy55 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:51 pm

Loving the "melt up" but have to say when this party ends, it's going to be UGLY on the downside. I can easily see another 2008 with 40, 50% drops coming once "they" pull the rug out.

As someone in ER looking to protect the assets I have, I've been an active seller all week and am hoarding cash (yes, I know this is anti-BH - but I expect to be able to buy at 25+% below where we are now in the not too distant future..especially with this being an election year). As they say.."be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful". And, "sell into the rallies". I may have missed a few dollars on the upside to come yet - looks like low interest rates are driving the "nowhere else to put money" rally, FOR NOW. But, boy, when this ends, it's likely to be the mother of all meltdowns.

YMMV. Best of luck to all!
Last edited by RetireBy55 on Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:54 pm

It feels like a melt up, but the two year returns are sort of middle of the road. Am I wrong? :happy

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:01 pm

This must be really hard to watch for someone in say a 60/40 portfolio, seeing 40% of your money do nothing while the market rockets up to Andromeda. I'm sure the converse of this will be true some day but I am thinking not for some time to come.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:01 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:54 pm
It feels like a melt up, but the two year returns are sort of middle of the road. Am I wrong? :happy
Check out JoMoney's graph. Stocks could drop by 50% or go up 100% and the long-term return remain at 7% real, depending on the starting date.
JoMoney wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:26 pm
... one could argue on the basis of returns alone that at the end of this period, we've basically just 'caught up' to 'average'.
I've posted this before, but since you brought it up:
The blue line is $1 starting in 1925 grown at the annualized inflation adjusted return of the S&P 500 Index up through the end of 2019.
The top red line is a static 7% annualized grwoth starting from the peak after year-end 1928
The bottom red line is a static 7% annualized growth starting from the trough after year-end 1931
The dashed gray line is a static 7% annualized growth from the mid-point between the top and bottom red line after year-end 1931

Looks to me like you could describe it as 'caught up to average', but it also looks like the market could drop in half, or double, and still be within the range of the "long-term average"
Image
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:02 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:51 pm
Loving the "melt up" but have to say when this party ends, it's going to be UGLY on the downside. I can easily see another 2008 with 40, 50% drops coming once "they" pull the rug out.

As someone in ER looking to protect the assets I have, I've been an active seller all week and am hoarding cash (yes, I know this is anti-BH - but I expect to be able to buy at 25+% below where we are now in the not too distant future..especially with this being an election year). As they say.."be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful". And, "sell into the rallies". I may have missed a few dollars on the upside to come yet - looks like low interest rates are driving the "nowhere else to put money" rally, FOR NOW. But, boy, when this ends, it's likely to be the mother of all meltdowns.

YMMV. Best of luck to all!
Interesting. I wonder if it’s a “behavioral error” to assume that if there is a big swing in one direction that a swing in the other direction is eminent. There are so many factors involved that it’s probably impossible to predict the future. I agree with “best of luck to all!”
:sharebeer

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:07 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:01 pm
GoldenFinch wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:54 pm
It feels like a melt up, but the two year returns are sort of middle of the road. Am I wrong? :happy
Check out JoMoney's graph. Stocks could drop by 50% or go up 100% and the long-term return remain at 7% real, depending on the starting date.
JoMoney wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:26 pm
... one could argue on the basis of returns alone that at the end of this period, we've basically just 'caught up' to 'average'.
I've posted this before, but since you brought it up:
The blue line is $1 starting in 1925 grown at the annualized inflation adjusted return of the S&P 500 Index up through the end of 2019.
The top red line is a static 7% annualized grwoth starting from the peak after year-end 1928
The bottom red line is a static 7% annualized growth starting from the trough after year-end 1931
The dashed gray line is a static 7% annualized growth from the mid-point between the top and bottom red line after year-end 1931

Looks to me like you could describe it as 'caught up to average', but it also looks like the market could drop in half, or double, and still be within the range of the "long-term average"
Image
That’s why we Bogleheads stay the course, right? Seven percent real is pretty good. (And not what many know it all crystal ballers keep predicting.) < I mean that in a friendly way to the prognosticators. :happy

SovereignInvestor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SovereignInvestor » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:08 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:43 am
Bluce wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:24 am
For you optimists . . .

From the Philadelphia Fed:

Image
I just looked at the Purchasing Managers Index, and it doesn't look so rosy.

Image
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... confidence

It's been below 50 (i.e. in pessimistic territory) since August of 2019 and has been trending downward. :?

The Conference Board LEI is still in mildly optimistic territory though at 111.6.
ISM manufacturing PMI is in contraction as of December but the Markit PMI is showing recovery.

Many say Markit is broader and more reliable. It has been more stable.this entire cycle post GFC.

The stock market appears to believe Markit not ISM


https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... n-december
Last edited by SovereignInvestor on Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

TomCat96
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TomCat96 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:10 pm

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:34 pm
TomCat96 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:24 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:45 am
not excited about this run up as the market is getting way too expensive... not good for those of us in the accumulation phase.
+1

Ive got more than 25 years of accumulation to go and i'd rather do it on the cheap.
If this bull continues for another 5+ years or more, 2020 stock prices will have been cheap. The DOW reached 25,000 for the very first time a little over 2 years ago and it seemed everyone was saying the market was overpriced. The DOW is now well passed 29,000 and climbing.
The rate of growth is unsustainable though by any metric.

Nevertheless, I've decided to weight the bulk of my 401k contributions within the first few paychecks of the year, keeping only enough to retain the match the rest of the year. Decided to add this to my IPS (25+ yrs to go), in favor of trying to eke out a little extra "time in market"

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by RetireBy55 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:15 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:02 pm
RetireBy55 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:51 pm
Loving the "melt up" but have to say when this party ends, it's going to be UGLY on the downside. I can easily see another 2008 with 40, 50% drops coming once "they" pull the rug out.

As someone in ER looking to protect the assets I have, I've been an active seller all week and am hoarding cash (yes, I know this is anti-BH - but I expect to be able to buy at 25+% below where we are now in the not too distant future..especially with this being an election year). As they say.."be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful". And, "sell into the rallies". I may have missed a few dollars on the upside to come yet - looks like low interest rates are driving the "nowhere else to put money" rally, FOR NOW. But, boy, when this ends, it's likely to be the mother of all meltdowns.

YMMV. Best of luck to all!
Interesting. I wonder if it’s a “behavioral error” to assume that if there is a big swing in one direction that a swing in the other direction is eminent. There are so many factors involved that it’s probably impossible to predict the future. I agree with “best of luck to all!”
:sharebeer
Well, all I can say is..I've seen this movie before. Too many times to count. There'll be a big run-up... Easy money just about everywhere. Then, "they" (the ones who truly make the big money) will pull the rug out. Down 40, 50% - eg: 2008 and other scenarios over the years (eg: 2000-2010).

Being in ER, my approach is "keep what you have". I can't ride another 40-50+% down leg. So, when the market rallies hugely, I convert some equity investments to cash. Cash is adequate to fund ER through age 95+, even losing to inflation. I'm not focused on what I leave to heirs. Sure, I won't get rich..but I don't "need" to, either. Just pay the bills and stay the course..

I'm at roughly 22% equities and while it'd be great to see my PF increase in huge chunks when the market is on fire like it is now, am just fine with taking (much) less risk also..
Last edited by RetireBy55 on Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:21 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:17 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:01 pm
This must be really hard to watch for someone in say a 60/40 portfolio, seeing 40% of your money do nothing while the market rockets up to Andromeda. I'm sure the converse of this will be true some day but I am thinking not for some time to come.
Not in the least. What many of us non-100 percenters lack in equity percent we make up in dollar volume. We just focus on the increase in dollar value of our portfolio rather than the percentage increase. Also, I think back to how fun it was to have money available to invest on Christmas Eve 2018. Besides my Fixed Income assets aren't doing nothing, they are paying my expenses for the next few decades of my life.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:20 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:01 pm
This must be really hard to watch for someone in say a 60/40 portfolio, seeing 40% of your money do nothing while the market rockets up to Andromeda. I'm sure the converse of this will be true some day but I am thinking not for some time to come.
My AA is supposed to be 30/70 but has crept up to 32/68 in recent months. So I took about 1% out of my total stock index today (SWTSX).

I will see where it is in another week or two and maybe take another 1% out. I am in preservation mode. :shock:

As it is, I will probably be the richest guy in the graveyard; if I was 90-100% in stocks the number would be higher than I can count. :(

Silk McCue
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Silk McCue » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:22 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:01 pm
This must be really hard to watch for someone in say a 60/40 portfolio, seeing 40% of your money do nothing while the market rockets up to Andromeda. I'm sure the converse of this will be true some day but I am thinking not for some time to come.
Evidently after being here two years you just don’t get it.

Cheers

TomCat96
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TomCat96 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:24 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:17 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:01 pm
This must be really hard to watch for someone in say a 60/40 portfolio, seeing 40% of your money do nothing while the market rockets up to Andromeda. I'm sure the converse of this will be true some day but I am thinking not for some time to come.
Not in the least. What many of us non-100 percenters lack in equity percent we make up in dollar volume. We just focus on the increase in dollar value of our portfolio rather than the percentage increase. Also, I think back to how fun it was to have money available to invest on Christmas Eve 2018. Besides my Fixed Income assets aren't doing nothing, they are paying my expenses for the next few decades of my life.
Definitely something to be noted on both sides of the aisle. At this point I could probably lose my entire investment and still be able to retire.
I'm not at the point yet where each day to day swing is a year of savings.

GoldenFinch
Posts: 2006
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:32 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:15 pm
GoldenFinch wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:02 pm
RetireBy55 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:51 pm
Loving the "melt up" but have to say when this party ends, it's going to be UGLY on the downside. I can easily see another 2008 with 40, 50% drops coming once "they" pull the rug out.

As someone in ER looking to protect the assets I have, I've been an active seller all week and am hoarding cash (yes, I know this is anti-BH - but I expect to be able to buy at 25+% below where we are now in the not too distant future..especially with this being an election year). As they say.."be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful". And, "sell into the rallies". I may have missed a few dollars on the upside to come yet - looks like low interest rates are driving the "nowhere else to put money" rally, FOR NOW. But, boy, when this ends, it's likely to be the mother of all meltdowns.

YMMV. Best of luck to all!
Interesting. I wonder if it’s a “behavioral error” to assume that if there is a big swing in one direction that a swing in the other direction is eminent. There are so many factors involved that it’s probably impossible to predict the future. I agree with “best of luck to all!”
:sharebeer
Well, all I can say is..I've seen this movie before. Too many times to count. There'll be a big run-up... Easy money just about everywhere. Then, "they" (the ones who truly make the big money) will pull the rug out. Down 40, 50% - eg: 2008 and other scenarios over the years (eg: 2000-2010).

Being in ER, my approach is "keep what you have". I can't ride another 40-50+% down leg. So, when the market rallies hugely, I convert some equity investments to cash. Cash is adequate to fund ER through age 95+, even losing to inflation. I'm not focused on what I leave to heirs. Sure, I won't get rich..but I don't "need" to, either. Just pay the bills and stay the course..

I'm at roughly 22% equities and while it'd be great to see my PF increase in huge chunks when the market is on fire like it is now, am just fine with taking (much) less risk also..
It good to “know thyself” and you clearly do. Me too. I rebalanced the kids 529s severely yesterday because they almost doubled and I felt that was enough. I never expected them to double and it’s more than what is needed so I turned the faucet off and prevented a possible decrease. Otherwise I’m just staying the course and sticking to the plan. :happy

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:34 pm

TomCat96 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:24 pm
I'm not at the point yet where each day to day swing is a year of savings.
Me neither.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:36 pm

Santa continues to work overtime on his Xmas rally! :beer
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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AerialWombat
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AerialWombat » Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:18 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:01 pm
This must be really hard to watch for someone in say a 60/40 portfolio, seeing 40% of your money do nothing while the market rockets up to Andromeda. I'm sure the converse of this will be true some day but I am thinking not for some time to come.
Don't make assumptions.

I'm 30/70 in my liquid securities portfolio. About 1/3 of that is cash. I could care less about the market run up. In fact, it's only because of this forum that I'm not 0/100. I could be in 100% short-term Treasuries right now and forever, and likely be perfectly happy. I don't need equities in my portfolio, at all. Just don't need 'em.
“Life doesn’t come with a warranty.” -Michael LeBoeuf

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AerialWombat
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AerialWombat » Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:22 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:49 pm
AerialWombat wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:43 pm
For the two metrics you use for your trend following, do you post about if here when it actually happens? I just think it would be interesting to track how the market does from your your trigger point onward.
I do post that in the thread devoted to that topic. Right now, I'm 100% U.S. stock.
Excellent! I will search for that thread and subscribe to it. You're one of the folks around here that I'd like to buy a beer for sometime. :sharebeer
“Life doesn’t come with a warranty.” -Michael LeBoeuf

Trader Joe
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Trader Joe » Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:24 pm

S&P 500 Index
INDEXSP: .INX
3,316.81 +27.52 (0.84%)
Jan 16, 5:06 PM EST · Disclaimer


Excellent!

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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 » Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:51 pm

Back up truck and buy more Total Stock until it hurts. Then buy more!
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:58 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 7:51 pm
Back up truck and buy more Total Stock until it hurts. Then buy more!
I'm going the other way -- in the "sell high" direction! :moneybag

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