AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

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fennewaldaj
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by fennewaldaj » Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:18 am

Its interesting that even on a forum like bogleheads we have a decent number of people who purchase individual tech stocks or sector funds and we also have a much larger (I think) number of people who deliberately underweight them (small value tilters)

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randomizer
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by randomizer » Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:14 am

Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm
What is your bet for the next 20 years?
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
Amazon has online shopping on lock.
Google has the interwebs/data on lock.
They all have inter lapping markets (online video, home automation, software) but are also unique.
I think I'll just buy a market index and that way I don't have to make a guess.

If I had to place a bet, I'd go with Amazon, the most evil company of the lot, but I am not a betting man.
87.5:12.5, EM tilt — HODL the course!

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by TheOscarGuy » Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:18 am

Flobes wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:47 pm
I'm sticking with Enron, undeniably the industry leader with the greatest management!
:D

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Freefun » Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:21 am

Have a tiny bit in these 3 but my fav is Netflix
Remember when you wanted what you currently have?

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LiveSimple
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by LiveSimple » Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:22 am

If OP, want a middle ground, see if you want to invest in sector funds.

VGT : Vanguard Information Technology or something similar
VCR : Vanguard Consumer Discretionary or something similar

NYCwriter
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by NYCwriter » Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:52 pm

I own all 3, and Netflix. I've owned Apple for a long time, and the others for about 4+ years. I've taken profits on all of them as taxes allowed--most recently in Jan--as I have been prioritizing my index funds. I'm now down to about 8 shares of AMZN, lol. It's a good problem to have, but I remember when Amazon and Netflix flopped more than once on bad earnings.

With market-cap weighted index funds and etfs like QQQ I'm not sure it's worth it to buy individual shares. You can save on commissions and reduce risk by putting x amount into an etf.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by RRAAYY3 » Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:54 pm

Momus wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:53 am
Index is already overweighted in tech... 25% in tech.
And if one goes under, that index will go ahead and do the adjustment for me

Apple is the last of the 3 I’d buy

Amazon > Google .... Apple

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by wrongfunds » Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:02 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:32 pm
cantos wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:51 pm
...To the naysayers who cite Enron, Nortel, etc., no offense but you are out of your mind if you think they are comparable. Virtually everyone in north america, inclusing you, use Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, Netflix, etc. If you don't, there is at most one degree of separation to someone you know who does...
Well, the examples I used--Control Data, Burroughs, Digital Equipment Corporation, Xerox, Eastman Kodak, and Polaroid--would have all met that criterion.
To be fair, only Kodak had similar presence in the sense that lots of people had exposure (pardon the pun) to them. CDC/Burroughs/DEC were only known to lot fewer people.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by nisiprius » Fri Mar 02, 2018 6:14 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:02 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:32 pm
cantos wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:51 pm
...To the naysayers who cite Enron, Nortel, etc., no offense but you are out of your mind if you think they are comparable. Virtually everyone in north america, inclusing you, use Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, Netflix, etc. If you don't, there is at most one degree of separation to someone you know who does...
Well, the examples I used--Control Data, Burroughs, Digital Equipment Corporation, Xerox, Eastman Kodak, and Polaroid--would have all met that criterion.
To be fair, only Kodak had similar presence in the sense that lots of people had exposure (pardon the pun) to them. CDC/Burroughs/DEC were only known to lot fewer people.
Directly known to everyone, no. One-degree-of-separation known, I think yes.

And in the case of Burroughs, directly known: in the 1960s, a lot of offices would still have had something like this in them:
Image
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by wbrianwhite » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:23 pm

If I were an individual stock investor, I'd be buying up Elon Musk's companies. Let's revolutionize getting to space, using the internet, traveling on the earth, and using solar. How many industries is that? Seems to have a real talent for defining new markets

OldLearner
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by OldLearner » Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:50 am

AMZN - the only one I own, but, RUN as fast as you can. P/E is insane. Known for online sales, BUT DOESN'T MAKE ANY MONEY ON ONLINE SALES (yelling was intentional, by the way). Profits are from web services. So why do I own it? It's called gambling (and it's only about 1% of my net worth). I'm betting that people who don't understand Amazon or its market to continue to run the price up (thanks media). I've owned it for a while.

APPL - don't run, DRIVE as fast as you can. Apple has had more product fails than wins (Newton, Lisa, or QuickTake anyone?), and that was with Steve. Since 1984, Apple has had one (yes, one) super product: the iPod Touch (I'll pause to let that sink in). Yes the iPod Touch. The iPhone is just an iPod Touch with a SIM card, and an iPad is just a big iPod Touch. Apple hasn't had any innovations in over a decade, and there are smart phones being manufactured in China that can do everything an iPhone X can do that will be available in a few years in the U.S. for about $200-300 (or about 20% of the iPhone).

GOOG - That's the wild card of this set. It's value is in its data and what it can do with it.

If you want to pick stocks (and I don't), your best bets are stocks that no one you know has ever heard of.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by inbox788 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:42 pm

kjvmartin wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:25 pm
I don't think it's the lack of Steve. They plan *far* in advance and most of what we see today is a product of Steve & Co. or at least had his blessing. Apple can't possibly continue to do what they've done, but they're far from going extinct.
It IS lack of Steve!

That leaves choosing between Larry and Jeff, I'd choose Jeff. So between these three it's obviously AMZN.

You forgot Mark and Elon, which would make choosing among AMZN, FB, TSLA a more difficult choice for me.

"society on lock" vs "universe on lock" ("electricity on lock")

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by blmarsha123 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:45 pm

I wonder if Vanguard Morgan Growth (VMRAX) could be an alternative to the individual stocks? The current top ten (over 28% of the net assets of the fund) includes Alphabet, Amazon and Apple, and also Facebook and Microsoft.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Alexa9 » Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:06 pm

wbrianwhite wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:23 pm
If I were an individual stock investor, I'd be buying up Elon Musk's companies. Let's revolutionize getting to space, using the internet, traveling on the earth, and using solar. How many industries is that? Seems to have a real talent for defining new markets
I applaud him for pursuing new technology because NASA funding has been dramatically cut. However, I am doubtful in most of those areas he is researching or that it can be profitable.

TravelforFun
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by TravelforFun » Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:26 pm

No need to guess. Buy Fidelity Select Technology Fund (FSTPX) and forget about it. This fund gained over 40% last year.

TravelforFun

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by SlowMovingInvestor » Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:51 am

OldLearner wrote:
Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:50 am

APPL - don't run, DRIVE as fast as you can. Apple has had more product fails than wins (Newton, Lisa, or QuickTake anyone?), and that was with Steve. Since 1984, Apple has had one (yes, one) super product: the iPod Touch (I'll pause to let that sink in). Yes the iPod Touch. The iPhone is just an iPod Touch with a SIM card, and an iPad is just a big iPod Touch. Apple hasn't had any innovations in over a decade, and there are smart phones being manufactured in China that can do everything an iPhone X can do that will be available in a few years in the U.S. for about $200-300 (or about 20% of the iPhone).
Newton and Quicktake were when Steve was out of power. And while Lisa was a failure, it morphed into Macintosh, which was one of the most successful products ever. I disagree with your comments about Apple having only had one super product since 1984 (or even since Jobs returned in the late 90s). . And there have been cheaper phones that can do 95-99% of what the iPhone can do for a while. But they don't have the fanatical following of the iPhone and the brand cachet, especially in developing countries. I've always been a very frugal guy myself, and have actually never paid for an Apple product, but I can understand the devotion from the devices I have used (typically corporate devices or computers). That being said, I do agree they are less diversified than AMZN or GOOG.

One comment I would make is that I think the biggest competitors for these firms are actually Chinese companies such as Ali Baba, Baidu, Tencent, Huawei (Samsung is a competitor for AAPL, but not really for the others), some of which trade on US (as ADRs), Hong Kong or Shanghai bourses.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by MiddleGround » Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:05 pm

AMZN
AAPL
GOOG
In that order.
"Fund your future, every month." ---Me

inbox788
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by inbox788 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:35 pm

SlowMovingInvestor wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:51 am
Newton and Quicktake were when Steve was out of power. And while Lisa was a failure, it morphed into Macintosh, which was one of the most successful products ever. I disagree with your comments about Apple having only had one super product since 1984 (or even since Jobs returned in the late 90s). . And there have been cheaper phones that can do 95-99% of what the iPhone can do for a while. But they don't have the fanatical following of the iPhone and the brand cachet, especially in developing countries. I've always been a very frugal guy myself, and have actually never paid for an Apple product, but I can understand the devotion from the devices I have used (typically corporate devices or computers). That being said, I do agree they are less diversified than AMZN or GOOG.

One comment I would make is that I think the biggest competitors for these firms are actually Chinese companies such as Ali Baba, Baidu, Tencent, Huawei (Samsung is a competitor for AAPL, but not really for the others), some of which trade on US (as ADRs), Hong Kong or Shanghai bourses.
You could say, "while Newton and Quicktake were failures, they morphed into iPhone and iPad".
One of Apple’s first forays into the arena that we think of today as ‘mobile’ computing was the Newton MessagePad. As a pocketable, hand-sized device that was meant to be a a personal organizer, the MessagePad ended up being a long-winded failure for Apple, but it did plant some seeds for what would eventually become Apple’s mobile empire, including the iPhone and iPad.
https://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/09/30 ... ile-giant/

People don't know or forget that "Apple invented the ARM chip". (Apple A[-1])
Recently, at an SFTA event held at Citrix HQ, former Apple CEO John Sculley talked about the origins of the Newton and the ARMv6 processor, which was a joint venture between Apple, Acorn Computers and VLSI. The ARM6 was used as the processor for the first Newton MessagePad, as Apple needed a more power efficient CPU for its portable.
ARM was one of Apple's crown jewels at one time. Too bad Apple couldn't hold on to ARM (now worth over $32B; http://fortune.com/2016/07/18/softbank-arm-iot/ ). And who knows what kind of smartphone market share Apple would have by controlling the processor technology behind all phones today, or whether they would have smothered the openness of ARM, and opened the door to Intel and others to take over. What the ARM investment did provide Apple was a financial lifeline during some of the darkest hours. In more ways than one, ARM has been essential to the success of modern day Apple. You could almost say it provided the financing for the iMac (without which the iPhone may not exist; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IMac_G3 ) and the second coming of Steve. A lot has changed in 20 years.
IMAC

Introduced in August 1998, iMac is targeted at the education and consumer markets. With an innovative industrial design, easy internet access and a powerful PowerPC G3 microprocessor, iMac is suitable for a wide range of education and consumer applications.
...
INTEREST AND OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE), NET

Total interest and other income (expense), net, increased $43 million or 172% to a total of $68 million in 1998 compared to $25 million in 1997. The primary cause of this increase was gains recognized on the sale of an equity investment. As of September 26, 1997, the Company owned 42.3% of the outstanding stock of ARM Holdings plc (ARM), a then privately held company in the United Kingdom involved in the design of high performance microprocessors and related technology. The Company has accounted for this investment using the equity method through September 25, 1998. On April 17, 1998, ARM completed an initial public offering of its stock on the London Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ National Market. The Company sold 18.9% of its shares in the offering for a gain before foreign taxes of approximately $24 million, which was recognized as other income. Foreign tax recognized on this gain was approximately
http://investor.apple.com/secfiling.cfm ... cik=320193

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by uberational44 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:17 pm

In my view, GOOG and AMZN are likely to be broken up because they have monopolies, but Apple won't be broken up.
Marketeer investing as a hobby. Interested in modern takes on value investing, passive investing and general contrarianism.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by topper1296 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:37 pm

I'm mainly indexed, however I do also hold individual stocks. I'm NOT a fan of investing in tech, in general, however I did make an exception and have a small position in GOOG.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Valuethinker » Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:25 am

Alexa9 wrote:
Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:06 pm
wbrianwhite wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:23 pm
If I were an individual stock investor, I'd be buying up Elon Musk's companies. Let's revolutionize getting to space, using the internet, traveling on the earth, and using solar. How many industries is that? Seems to have a real talent for defining new markets
I applaud him for pursuing new technology because NASA funding has been dramatically cut. However, I am doubtful in most of those areas he is researching or that it can be profitable.
Both a visionary and a confidence trickster - beguiling in that sense.

He misses deadlines with Tesla, so he focuses attention on their latest idea (electric trucks; batteries in South Australia). The Solar thing was pure financial engineering (to bail out Elon Musk?)-- it didn't make business sense.

It's obvious that Tesla is struggling to grow up and be a real car company: quality control problems, missed deadlines, problems scaling production, abusive working conditions. At some point the stuff and magic runs out and you are left making cars. Note the bond is rated junk by the rating agencies (who tend to be more cautious than equity markets).

And yet, and yet, and yet:

- made the electric vehicle chic - compare the Tesla to the Volt or even the BMW i3
- potentially revolutionized the satellite launch industry
- built a battery in South Australia in record time, solving a need for utility-scale electricity storage (and conventional wisdom said it wouldn't work and it could not be done)

I tend to think Hyperloop is a distraction. Because the problems of HS rail are understood-- there's not likely to be a cheap way of bypassing those. But, again, in the 21st century medium distance air travel is likely to be restricted, so this is revolutionary if they get it right.

Musk is both a genius, and a stage magician.

I'd say admire him, but let the market value his securities. I shall hold his achievements in proportion to their market cap.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Valuethinker » Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:27 am

uberational44 wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:17 pm
In my view, GOOG and AMZN are likely to be broken up because they have monopolies, but Apple won't be broken up.
Regulated rather than broken up. In the sense that genuine breakups are rare, and it would be killing an American national champion. That's very unlikely in today's international business-political climate.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by uberational44 » Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:08 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:27 am
uberational44 wrote:
Sun Mar 04, 2018 5:17 pm
In my view, GOOG and AMZN are likely to be broken up because they have monopolies, but Apple won't be broken up.
Regulated rather than broken up. In the sense that genuine breakups are rare, and it would be killing an American national champion. That's very unlikely in today's international business-political climate.
If Standard Oil was broken up because it had a monopoly on oil, would there not be a case for breaking up companies with monopolies on our personal data? I agree that it would mean dismantling American champions, but I don't think it's that unlikely.

Even if the risk of this of this happening is small, it would still cause me to choose Apple above the others. Even though Google and Amazon print money in their current forms!
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by schwank » Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:03 am

I work for one of the 3, so that's who I am pulling for. But I take my RSUs and invest in VTI/ITOT. :beer

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Captain kangaroo » Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:37 am

Any tech etf.

If I had to pick an individual stock.. Nvidia.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by eye.surgeon » Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:16 am

Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm
What is your bet for the next 20 years?
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
Amazon has online shopping on lock.
Google has the interwebs/data on lock.
They all have inter lapping markets (online video, home automation, software) but are also unique.
My bet is yes.
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Helo80 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 6:48 pm

Helo80 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:18 pm
If I had to take an all or nothing wager on those three for best returns after 20 years, I'd go with Amazon. To me, they are the most diversified and are trying to grow well beyond their current reach. E.g. grocery, shipping, pharmaceutical
And now Amazon wants to be a bank as well...

Now, I do think Amazon is going to begin to run afoul on some unfair competition and monopoly laws at some point. But, Amazon seems to be the most poised to continue to venture out into wherever Bezos feels like going --- including rocket ships.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by michaeljc70 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:22 pm

n00b590 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:24 pm
..
VTI
Exactly. I own all three :o

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by mikeyzito22 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:12 pm

LiveSimple wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:22 am
If OP, want a middle ground, see if you want to invest in sector funds.

VGT : Vanguard Information Technology or something similar
VCR : Vanguard Consumer Discretionary or something similar
Both funds have overperformed VTI since 2015, according to backtest portfolio.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by AlphaLess » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:48 pm

rob wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:42 pm
I'll go Worldcom, Lehman and Washington Mutual.....
Ah, those are nothing compared to Enron and Bear Stearns.
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by amitb00 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:00 pm

Although I don’t own any of FAANG stocks, I can see that these companies are in a much better place compared to big names of yesteryears. They have enormous money, lead innovation and if there is another company who is doing something they like or feel threatened, they will buy them. I think they will have awesome returns, much better than VTI for decades and decades. Whether this is true or not, we will see. I myself am continuing with index funds but don’t think index funds will beat these stocks in next few decades.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by LiveSimple » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:19 pm

If you have to invest in these stocks, see sector ETFs such as technology and Discretionary, VGT and VCR.
Last edited by LiveSimple on Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by SlowMovingInvestor » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:33 pm

LiveSimple wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:19 pm
If you have to invest in these stocks, see technology sector, VGT
VGT doesn't include AMZN. QQQ does, though.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Dottie57 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:34 pm

n00b590 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:24 pm
..
VTI
Bingo!

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by nedsaid » Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:46 pm

anil686 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 7:41 pm
My feeling is that none of the three will be huge in 20 years (just a hunch) as tech is moving super fast and disruption is happening everywhere. But - if I had to rank them - Google>Amazon>Apple - Google has branched out effectively in areas that have allowed them to be major players in:
A) web/mail
B) Devices (chrome book licensing/App Store), phones, now google WiFi
C) Android apps/ecosystem
D) You tube TV with a studio in You Tube red and an amateur studio that is developing stuff all the time - YouTube really entering the cable market

I can see them being the tech/entertainment complex I thought Apple would have been 10 years ago - but that seems to be passing Apple by IMHO...
Hard to say. I have a couple of problems with the High Tech stocks. First, the technology changes so very quickly. I am posting from a desktop computer, which now is so old fashioned. I should be doing this from a smartphone or tablet. Even laptop computers are getting to be passe. Second, is the "cool factor." A lot of tech is driven by young people and their tastes are notoriously fickle. If something seems cool, they will flock to it. Once the old fogies like us start adopting it then "cool" will be somewhere else. Not too long ago, Blackberries were the preferred smart phone. Now no self respecting person would be caught dead with one. I think this is happening to Facebook, too many of us old fogies on it.

Apple is still "cool" but hard to say how long that will last. They miss Steve Jobs. I think they will become sort of like Hewlett-Packard or IBM. They will still be around but not considered cutting edge. Google is pretty dominant, hard to say how much they can grow from here. Amazon is killing much of retail but remember how competitive retail is. When I started my career in the early 1980's, Sears was the number one retailer. Now they are disappearing faster than a snowball in Hades. Something will come along that will challenge Amazon.

So really hard to say.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by SlowMovingInvestor » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:12 am

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:46 pm
Amazon is killing much of retail but remember how competitive retail is. When I started my career in the early 1980's, Sears was the number one retailer. Now they are disappearing faster than a snowball in Hades. Something will come along that will challenge Amazon.
The thing that struck me about Amazon is that Barnes and Noble is still alive. No, it's certainly not thriving, but to have survived 23 years in the crosshairs of Amazon is pretty impressive. Borders died very quickly, but maybe B&N shows that wel managed traditional retailers aren't going to just fall dead for AMZN.

AMZN's real strength is it's cloud business. Very high margin.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by KyleAAA » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:31 am

I’d bet on AMZN and MSFT. Those two companies seem to be eating the world in the consumer and enterprise space, respectively. GOOG would be a close 3rd because of talent. I don’t put AAPL in the same league as those 3 these days.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by WanderingDoc » Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:18 am

OldLearner wrote:
Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:50 am
AMZN - the only one I own, but, RUN as fast as you can. P/E is insane. Known for online sales, BUT DOESN'T MAKE ANY MONEY ON ONLINE SALES (yelling was intentional, by the way). Profits are from web services. So why do I own it? It's called gambling (and it's only about 1% of my net worth). I'm betting that people who don't understand Amazon or its market to continue to run the price up (thanks media). I've owned it for a while.

APPL - don't run, DRIVE as fast as you can. Apple has had more product fails than wins (Newton, Lisa, or QuickTake anyone?), and that was with Steve. Since 1984, Apple has had one (yes, one) super product: the iPod Touch (I'll pause to let that sink in). Yes the iPod Touch. The iPhone is just an iPod Touch with a SIM card, and an iPad is just a big iPod Touch. Apple hasn't had any innovations in over a decade, and there are smart phones being manufactured in China that can do everything an iPhone X can do that will be available in a few years in the U.S. for about $200-300 (or about 20% of the iPhone).

GOOG - That's the wild card of this set. It's value is in its data and what it can do with it.

If you want to pick stocks (and I don't), your best bets are stocks that no one you know has ever heard of.
Spot on.
Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate, and wait. | Rent where you live, buy where others pay your mortgage for you.

Finridge
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Finridge » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:33 am

Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
This is false.

Two out of every three smartphones sold are Android.Apple has only about 1/3rd of the market.

About three out of every four tablets is Android. Apple has only 1/4th of the market.

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Carlos Danger
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Carlos Danger » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:24 am

I like AAPL and Amazon. I allow both of them to make up the absolute allowable max I have set for any company in our portfolio, 2% overall. Still lower than SPY or even VTI for APPL and Amazon though.

Google's (and Facebook's) business model is too closely tied to politics and the speech issue for me. Best way to hurt your bottom line is to find yourself subjected to govt. regulation. Fastest way to find yourself subject to govt. regulation is to piss off people in govt. Both of those companies seem to me to be in a no win situation on that front. Whether they censor content, or refrain from doing so, they'll make someone upset. We're VERY underweight these two compared to VTI or SPY.

Amazon is incredibly diversified, and incredibly customer focused. They're not just an on-line retailer. They're a media company. They're a logistics company. They're a tech services company and beating all the others. AWS is #1. Now they're a grocer (whole foods). Looks like soon a pharmacy (pill pack). They'll probably eventually be in the gas station/convenience store business. They're in the home automation business (Echo) and eating Apple and Google's lunch.

Apple has made themselves into the greatest luxury brand in history, and those tend to have staying power through thick and thin (Ferrari, Gucci, etc.). I personally like PCs and Android devices, am computer savvy, and also a cheapskate. But I love Apple as an investment.

That being said, if both went bust, I'd be fine. Even more fine than people who are almost exclusively in something like VTI or SPY. My biggest issue with indexing, which is still the core of our portfolio, is that a few companies over time start to make up more and more and more of the index. Yes, it's because of great returns they generate, but it brings along greater single stock risk. I don't want a single stock like Apple to make up 4% of our portfolio. Aside from having international exposure, which weighs the FAANG's down, I'd rather slice and dice with a small portion of our U.S. equities and have some aerospace and defense companues (ITA) like Boeing, Lockheed, and Raytheon be overweight by .05% or something. Have some lower market correlation sectors like Utilities (VPU) be ever so slightly overweight their current, paltry share of the total market or S&P. I don't want 5 companies making up 10-12% up our portfolio, especially when that 12% today could/probably will be 15% tomorrow. And who knows how high it will go, before things change and the trend reverses. If/when these handful of companies start actually declining as a share of the index because they turn into dogs, I don't want 10% or 20% of my portfolio in them.

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Alexa9
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Alexa9 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:47 am

Finridge wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:33 am
Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
This is false.

Two out of every three smartphones sold are Android.Apple has only about 1/3rd of the market.

About three out of every four tablets is Android. Apple has only 1/4th of the market.
Far more profitable however and widely considered the "best" (especially tablets) although debatable and mostly marketing.

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Cycle
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by Cycle » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:21 am

I don't own any individual stocks outside espp restricted units, as I like to keep costs low and do the 3 fund.

I'd predict Google and Alphabet will outperform Amazon and Apple.

We dropped prime earlier this year after having it for many years. I receive apple products for free from time to time at work, but just sell them on eBay. Just sold some air pods last week. If I don't see value in them others also eventually won't. I still use tons of Google's products (Android, YouTube, search, home control, photos, drive, chrome)

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nedsaid
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by nedsaid » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:39 am

SlowMovingInvestor wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:12 am
nedsaid wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:46 pm
Amazon is killing much of retail but remember how competitive retail is. When I started my career in the early 1980's, Sears was the number one retailer. Now they are disappearing faster than a snowball in Hades. Something will come along that will challenge Amazon.
The thing that struck me about Amazon is that Barnes and Noble is still alive. No, it's certainly not thriving, but to have survived 23 years in the crosshairs of Amazon is pretty impressive. Borders died very quickly, but maybe B&N shows that wel managed traditional retailers aren't going to just fall dead for AMZN.

AMZN's real strength is it's cloud business. Very high margin.
Barnes and Noble is still around, hard to say if even they will survive. I miss Borders, they had a store in my city. There is a large independent bookstore in my Metropolitan area that is well-known and it has a web business and it specializes in used books. But much of the bookstore industry has just disappeared. Used to be a vibrant Christian bookstore business, that has mostly gone away. B. Dalton is gone and yet another book chain, name escapes me now, is also gone. A few small independents around.
A fool and his money are good for business.

WanderingDoc
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by WanderingDoc » Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:29 am

Finridge wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:33 am
Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
This is false.

Two out of every three smartphones sold are Android.Apple has only about 1/3rd of the market.

About three out of every four tablets is Android. Apple has only 1/4th of the market.
Bingo. Apple is overpriced, outsourced tech with no privacy where you are pigeonholed into services such as itunes. Most people are gullible and think because something is more expensive, it must be good.
Don't wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate, and wait. | Rent where you live, buy where others pay your mortgage for you.

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jharkin
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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by jharkin » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:15 pm

WanderingDoc wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:29 am
Finridge wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:33 am
Alexa9 wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 pm
Apple has the cell phone/tablet industry on lock.
This is false.

Two out of every three smartphones sold are Android.Apple has only about 1/3rd of the market.

About three out of every four tablets is Android. Apple has only 1/4th of the market.
Bingo. Apple is overpriced, outsourced tech with no privacy where you are pigeonholed into services such as itunes. Most people are gullible and think because something is more expensive, it must be good.
+1 And how soon we forget that during the heyday of the Apple 2 and the first generation Mac, they where seen as unbeatable...
... but a decade later they needed a $150MM investment from MSFT to avoid going into bankruptcy.

Also remember there was a time when Yahoo was destined to become the biggest company ever and Google was just a college project.
And GE dividends where considered more reliable than the sun rising in the east.

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Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:13 pm

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