2018 Boglehead Contest Charts

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surfer1
Posts: 244
Joined: Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:35 pm

2018 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by surfer1 » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:30 pm

Now that the 2018 Boglehead Contest is finalized and all bids have been placed, here are some graphs of the predictions. I posted this last year too.

As always, I'll leave it to the experts to draw any conclusions!

Here are the charts.

Bulls vs Bears Predictions by Year

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Sentiment by Year

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Are Predictions Bullish or Bearish in 2018?

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Prediction Trend for 2018

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willthrill81
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Location: USA

Re: 2018 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:35 am

Considering that the general trend for the last several years has been a reduction in the percentage of bulls while stocks have been on a tear, maybe the big uptick in the number of bulls means that the market won't do well in 2018.

I don't like the look of this. :annoyed
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Daryl
Posts: 551
Joined: Thu May 22, 2008 9:34 am
Location: Malvern, PA (I like to sleep near my money!)

Re: 2018 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by Daryl » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:47 am

I kept guessing too low in prior years, so I picked a higher number for 2018. I won't complain if I won (or some of the members with much higher guesses!); however, none of this is going to impact my asset allocation.

goblue100
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Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2013 10:31 am

Re: 2018 Boglehead Contest Charts

Post by goblue100 » Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:06 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:35 am
Considering that the general trend for the last several years has been a reduction in the percentage of bulls while stocks have been on a tear, maybe the big uptick in the number of bulls means that the market won't do well in 2018.

I don't like the look of this. :annoyed
Your instincts appear to have been correct.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

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