madsinger monthly report (September 2017)

[madsinger]

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their September 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 9 months, 10 years 9 months, 5 years 9 months, 3 years 9 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

Code: Select all

                                 CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                 Sep     YTD     since   since   since   since
                 2017    2017    2014    2012    2007    1999
VFINX            2.06%  14.12%  10.75%  15.10%   7.65%   5.79%
Sheltered Sam    2.25%  12.25%   8.76%  12.63%   6.15%   7.80%
Hot Hands        4.92%   6.83%   2.59%  10.73%   3.31%  10.60%
                  
Newsletter G     2.65%  16.30%  10.08%  14.68%   7.86%   9.77%
Newsletter G-IND 2.43%  13.70%   9.42%  13.80%   7.67%   6.95%
3 fund           1.69%  14.01%   7.11%  10.62%   6.06%   6.06%
s&d              1.99%  12.01%   7.28%  10.51%   5.89%   7.52%
LS G             1.66%  13.90%   7.40%  10.89%   5.59%   5.53%

Code: Select all

Newsletter CG    2.04%  14.80%   9.61%  13.48%   7.52%   8.23%
Wellington       2.02%   9.76%   8.09%  10.80%   7.32%   7.59%
STAR             1.67%  13.87%   7.26%  10.15%   6.44%   6.84%
coffeehouse      1.41%   7.81%   6.76%   9.00%   6.11%   7.12%
LS MG            1.14%  11.02%   6.50%   8.84%   5.38%   5.45%
                  
Wellesley        0.84%   6.89%   6.46%   7.55%   6.84%   6.85%
Newsletter Inc   1.80%  13.20%   8.62%  10.80%   6.78%   6.17%
LS CG            0.58%   8.10%   5.50%   6.75%   4.83%   5.10%
                  
madsinger        1.25%   9.65%   5.88%   8.79%   5.46%   
madsinger PP    -0.86%   7.79%            

[madsinger]

Long Bonds and Gold took a hit in September, while stocks rose to records again. The S&P 500 index has not only had a good year, it has been positive every month of the year! That kind of "steadiness" is very nice, but I hope does not lead investors into a false sense of security!

Code: Select all

          STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH     GOLD  PORTFOLIO 
January   1.85%    0.65%    0.08%   5.32%    1.93%
February  3.92%    1.57%    0.08%   3.17%    2.16%
March     0.07%   -0.58%    0.09%  -0.25%   -0.16%
April     0.99%    1.56%    0.08%   1.67%    1.07%
May       1.39%    1.74%    0.09%  -0.08%    0.77%
June      0.56%    0.64%    0.09%  -2.13%   -0.21%
July      2.03%   -0.59%    0.09%   2.35%    0.97%
August    0.26%    3.28%    0.10%   4.09%    1.92%
September 2.04%   -2.26%    0.10%  -3.22%   -0.84%
               
YTD      13.85%    6.06%    0.81%  11.10%    7.79%

[investor]

Thanks Brad,

still happy with slow and steady Wellington

investor

[cinghiale]

Brad,
Haven’t logged on in a while and thus haven’t been able to say “thanks.” As always, appreciate seeing the numbers and being able to at-a-glance comparisons of the key funds and benchmarks.

[jmndu99]

Once again, thank you Brad.

James

[iceport]

Thanks Brad. I look forward to these.

This month marks just about 10-years since the October 2007 market peak prior to the Great Recession. In addition to measuring my own dollar-weighted (XIRR) returns from the beginning of 2007, as you have done, I also measure my return from the October 2007 market peak.

Since the start of 2007 to 10/1/17, my CAGR is 6.18%, generally in line with many of the portfolios you track. Since the 10/9/07 market peak to 10/1/17, my CAGR is 5.75%. (The portfolio has transitioned during that time from 70/30 to 56/44.)