madsinger monthly report (July 2017)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (July 2017)

Post by madsinger »

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their July 2017 returns, 2017 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2007, 2012 and 2014 (18 years 7 months, 10 years 7 months, 5 years 7 months, 3 years 7 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFINX, VIVAX, NAESX, VISVX, VGSIX, 25 VGTSX, 5 VINEX, 20 VBMFX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFINX, 25% VIVAX, 5% NAESX, 15% VISVX, 10% VGSIX, 3% VGPMX, 5% each VEURX, VPACX, VEIEX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   July    YTD     since   since   since   since
                   2017    2017    2014    2012    2007    1999
VFINX              2.04%  11.49%  10.56%  15.11%   7.54%   5.71%
Sheltered Sam      2.09%   9.79%   8.51%  12.59%   6.02%   7.75%
Hot Hands          0.95%   3.32%   1.76%  10.41%   3.04%  10.50%
                  
Newsletter G       1.53%  13.10%   9.71%  14.58%   7.71%   9.69%
Newsletter G-IND   1.46%  11.10%   9.17%  13.77%   7.56%   6.89%
3 fund             2.08%  11.63%   6.82%  10.54%   5.95%   5.99%
s&d                1.86%   9.73%   7.02%  10.44%   5.78%   7.47%
LS G               2.05%  11.55%   7.13%  10.82%   5.48%   5.46%

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Newsletter CG      1.36%  12.10%   9.35%  13.43%   7.40%   8.16%
Wellington         1.20%   7.43%   7.84%  10.71%   7.22%   7.53%
STAR               1.71%  11.40%   6.95%  10.03%   6.32%   6.78%
coffeehouse        1.22%   6.18%   6.63%   8.98%   6.05%   7.10%
LS MG              1.64%   9.18%   6.31%   8.79%   5.30%   5.41%
                  
Wellesley          0.87%   5.44%   6.36%   7.52%   6.81%   6.83%
Newsletter Inc     1.19%  10.90%   8.42%  10.73%   6.68%   6.11%
LS CG              1.24%   6.77%   5.40%   6.72%   4.78%   5.07%
                  
madsinger          1.32%   7.63%   5.61%   8.70%   5.36%   
madsinger PP       0.97%   6.68%            
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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2017)

Post by madsinger »

Some boffo numbers for the first seven months of 2017. Many portfolios sporting double digit returns year to date. There is quite a bit of spread in the asset classes this year: US Large (S&P 500) up +11.5%, small cap and large value around 6-7%, and tilt darling small value just 3.3% YTD (SV was the big winner last year, so....)

International is having a very strong year, Total Int'l up 18.6%, and Int'l Explorer up over 26%.

Bonds are having a good year, doing about a 5% "annualized" rate, but just getting dwarfed by the stock returns. For the portfolios, the more stock, the better. The more int'l, the better. The bigger and growthier, the better.

The madsinger permanent portfolio is having a solid year with all components positive. Stock and Gold up over 10% in 7 months, long bonds at 5% in seven months, cash on track for a 1% return. While this portfolio looks weak YTD compared to stock heavy portfolios, it is having an above average return year, and if anything, I'm more concerned about future returns given these outsized current returns!

-Brad.

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         STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH    GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January  1.85%    0.65%    0.08%   5.32%   1.93%
February 3.92%    1.57%    0.08%   3.17%   2.16%
March    0.07%   -0.58%    0.09%  -0.25%  -0.16%
April    0.99%    1.56%    0.08%   1.67%   1.07%
May      1.39%    1.74%    0.09%  -0.08%   0.77%
June     0.56%    0.64%    0.09%  -2.13%  -0.21%
July     2.03%   -0.59%    0.09%   2.35%   0.97%
               
YTD     11.28%    5.08%    0.61%  10.29%   6.68%
chisey
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2017)

Post by chisey »

I always love this update. Thanks Brad.

Our 62/38 portfolio with a hefty mid/small tilt was up a little over 1.5% for July and is up a little over 9% YTD. I always like to keep an eye on what the tracking error from a 60/40 3-fund is, especially in a year like this when we're getting punished for our tilt. Thankfully we're not too far off of the LS MG returns.
livesoft
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2017)

Post by livesoft »

chisey wrote:I always love this update. Thanks Brad.

Our 62/38 portfolio with a hefty mid/small tilt was up a little over 1.5% for July and is up a little over 9% YTD. I always like to keep an eye on what the tracking error from a 60/40 3-fund is, especially in a year like this when we're getting punished for our tilt. Thankfully we're not too far off of the LS MG returns.
So what was your secret to get a "hefty mid/small tilt" to not suffer compared to LS MG?

I can think of a few reasons:

1. Hefty international allocation
2. Tilt away from value (see how coffeehouse suffered?)
3. Market timing
4. Something else

For me it was 1 and 3.
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chisey
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2017)

Post by chisey »

livesoft wrote: So what was your secret to get a "hefty mid/small tilt" to not suffer compared to LS MG?

I can think of a few reasons:

1. Hefty international allocation
2. Tilt away from value (see how coffeehouse suffered?)
3. Market timing
4. Something else

For me it was 1 and 3.
Three reasons I can think of:

(1) An error in my spreadsheet that exaggerated returns of my stable value fund YTD. :oops: YTD return is actually about 0.25% less than LS MG, so a bit more tracking error.

(2) Much larger share of corporate bonds, which have had about twice the returns of treasuries YTD.

(3) My large caps do tilt somewhat to growth, though mid and small do not-- this is probably a wash.
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pennstater2005
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2017)

Post by pennstater2005 »

Thank you Brad!
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jmndu99
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Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2017)

Post by jmndu99 »

Thanks so much Brad
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